Randy Guzman

P DSL Mets Orange

Age 19 RHP ROK peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	18	ROKDSL Mets Oran…	12	8	39	3.96	2.94	20.6%	7.3%	—	K 14.0% · BB 9.1% · FIP 4.00
2027PROJ	19	MLB—	5	5	23	4.59	4.59	19.7%	9.1%	0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	20	MLB—	4	4	18	4.49	4.44	20.6%	8.8%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 97%

CompsEdwin Jimenez (age 19) · Kyle Glogoski (age 19) · Moises Castillo (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%19.7%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%10.6%

Proj IP23

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	12	8	39	165	34	12	2	67%	3.2	14.0%	9.1%	4.9%	1.7%	3.96	4.00	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	12	8	39	165	34	12	2	67%	3.2	14.0%	9.1%	4.9%	1.7%	3.96	4.00	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	12	8	39	165	34	12	2	67%	3.2	20.6%	7.3%	13.3%	1.2%	3.96	2.94	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	—	5	5	23	97	19	9	3	100%	4.6	19.7%	9.1%	10.6%	2.9%	4.59	4.59	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	—	8	8	36	154	32	14	4	100%	4.6	20.6%	8.8%	11.8%	2.9%	4.49	4.44	+0.2
2028	20	MLB CTX	—	4	4	18	76	16	7	2	100%	4.5	20.6%	8.8%	11.8%	2.9%	4.49	4.44	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	18	76	16	7	2	100%	4.5	20.6%	8.8%	11.8%	2.9%	4.49	4.06	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	41	200	844	178	78	22	100%	4.8	20.6%	8.8%	11.8%	2.9%	4.49	4.06	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		12	8	39	165	23	15	3	67%	3.2	14.0%	9.1%	4.9%	1.7%	3.96	4.00	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	41	200	853	120	78	14	67%	3.2	14.0%	9.1%	4.9%	1.7%	3.96	4.00	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Randy Guzman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	19.7%	9.1%	2.9%	—	4.44	20.6%	11.8%	36	-0.15	—	—	—
Edwin Jimenez R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	19	SP-	4.03	19.3%	8.9%	2.6%	.330	4.79	16.5%	8.0%	277	+0.76	4.03	406	91
Kyle Glogoski R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP-	3.46	19.9%	8.5%	1.7%	.277	3.92	20.6%	9.1%	93	+0.46	3.32	206	84
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	83
Luis Arejula R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	19	SP	3.52	21.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.318	4.46	15.7%	3.5%	71	+0.94	3.52	115	83
Miguel Rondon R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	18	SP-	4.47	18.9%	9.4%	3.2%	.361	7.30	18.1%	2.1%	88	+2.83	2.62	179	83
Porter Hodge R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	20	SP-	4.20	19.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.336	3.39	24.3%	10.6%	249	-0.81	2.95	349	83
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	83
Miguel Díaz R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	20	SP-	3.40	19.3%	7.7%	1.7%	.365	4.40	19.4%	8.2%	233	+1.00	2.11	573	82
Fraynel Nova R 2022 · 3.83 FIP	20	SP-	3.83	16.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.296	4.17	14.9%	4.9%	110	+0.34	3.38	129	82
Adolfo Oviedo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	19	SP-	3.74	17.2%	8.1%	1.9%	.272	4.90	12.6%	5.2%	124	+1.16	3.74	235	82
Gilberto Batista R 2024 · 4.00 FIP	19	SP-	4.00	16.9%	11.4%	1.6%	.308	5.86	14.7%	4.9%	172	+1.86	3.63	250	82
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	82
Dario Gardea R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP-	3.46	18.6%	8.7%	1.5%	.250	3.45	19.5%	12.4%	50	-0.01	3.12	205	82
Saul Gonzalez R 2021 · 3.66 FIP	21	SP-	3.66	16.1%	8.4%	1.6%	.320	3.24	19.8%	9.6%	70	-0.42	2.94	110	81
David Lorduy R 2023 · 4.01 FIP	19	SP-	4.01	20.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.267	4.79	17.4%	7.1%	184	+0.78	3.38	269	81
Carlos Jimenez R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP-	4.08	20.6%	12.9%	2.0%	.274	5.21	20.4%	-0.0%	141	+1.13	4.07	257	81
Juan Bello R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	18.3%	6.9%	2.9%	.256	3.93	18.2%	7.6%	155	-0.09	3.77	187	81
Wuilliams Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	19	SP-	4.21	17.7%	10.6%	2.3%	.363	5.79	21.2%	5.9%	70	+1.58	3.69	135	81
Jose Morban R 2017 · 4.42 FIP	19	SP-	4.42	18.7%	11.2%	2.7%	.333	3.98	16.9%	5.8%	61	-0.44	3.98	178	81
Xiomer Guacache R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	19	SP-	4.42	16.3%	10.5%	2.5%	.255	5.09	13.0%	0.3%	120	+0.67	4.42	186	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	20.3%	8.9%	1.13	4.53
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*