Samil Serrano

OF DSL Nationals

Age 18 L/L ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1500ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	17	ROKWSH	179	.310/.435/.538	5	13	70	—	.182/.288/.286
2027PROJMLE	18	MLBWSH	289	.223/.298/.328	3	9	78	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	19	MLBWSH	50	.226/.302/.335	1	2	83	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	20	MLBWSH	124	.229/.306/.345	2	4	87	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Chase%96

Whiff%94

ISO89

wOBA87

Speed86

Z-Con%84

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 95%

CompsFranchy Cordero (age 19) · Jahmai Jones (age 18) · Taylor Trammell (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 93 proj PA

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG.221 / .295 / .325

PA93

HR1

K%24

BB%8

ISO105

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2036	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M
2037	Arb-2	$4M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$4M	+0.2	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	ROK	DSL Nationals	—	179	145	45	10	4	5	29	28	3	13	3	310	435	538	973	228	351	16	16	423	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	179	154	28	6	2	2	20	34	3	13	3	182	288	286	574	104	220	19	11	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	179	154	28	6	2	2	20	34	3	13	3	182	288	286	574	104	217	19	11	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	—	179	145	45	10	4	5	29	28	3	13	3	310	435	538	973	228	351	16	16	423	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	179	154	28	6	2	2	20	34	3	13	3	182	288	286	574	104	220	19	11	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	179	154	28	6	2	2	20	34	3	13	3	182	288	286	574	104	220	19	11	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	WSH	0%	289	259	58	11	3	3	25	68	3	9	1	223	298	328	626	105	287	24	9	283	78	-8	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	WSH	34%	146	131	30	5	2	2	12	34	2	5	1	227	303	340	643	113	290	23	8	291	83	-3	+1	+0	-1	+3	-0.0
2029	20	MLB MLE	WSH	48%	255	228	53	10	3	4	22	59	3	9	2	231	307	351	658	120	291	23	9	297	87	-4	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.1
2030	21	MLB MLE	WSH	54%	375	335	78	14	4	7	32	86	5	13	3	233	311	360	670	126	292	23	9	301	90	-4	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.3
2031	22	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	458	409	96	17	5	9	40	105	6	16	4	236	313	367	680	132	293	23	9	305	93	-4	+2	+0	-3	+10	0.5
2032	23	MLB MLE	WSH	58%	513	456	109	20	5	11	45	117	7	18	5	238	315	374	688	136	294	23	9	308	95	-3	+2	+0	-3	+11	0.7
2033	24	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	551	491	118	21	6	12	48	125	7	19	5	239	316	377	693	138	295	23	9	310	96	-3	+2	+0	-3	+12	0.8
2034	25	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	573	510	122	22	6	12	50	130	8	20	5	240	316	379	696	140	295	23	9	311	97	-2	+2	+0	-3	+12	0.9
2035	26	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	589	525	126	23	6	13	51	134	8	20	5	240	316	381	697	141	295	23	9	312	97	-2	+2	+0	-4	+13	0.9
2036	27	MLB MLE	WSH	55%	589	525	126	23	6	13	51	135	8	20	5	239	315	378	693	139	294	23	9	310	96	-3	+2	+0	-4	+13	0.9
2037	28	MLB MLE	WSH	55%	582	519	123	22	6	12	51	134	7	19	5	237	313	373	687	137	293	23	9	308	94	-4	+2	-1	-3	+13	0.6
2038	29	MLB MLE	WSH	53%	565	504	118	21	6	11	49	132	7	18	5	234	310	367	677	133	292	23	9	304	92	-5	+2	-1	-3	+12	0.4
2039	30	MLB MLE	WSH	53%	551	492	113	20	5	11	47	131	7	18	5	231	307	359	666	128	290	24	9	299	89	-7	+2	-2	-3	+12	0.1
2040	31	MLB MLE	WSH	52%	533	477	108	19	5	10	45	128	6	16	6	227	302	349	651	122	287	24	8	293	85	-10	+1	-3	-3	+12	-0.4
2028	19	MLB CTX	WSH	34%	50	45	10	2	0	1	4	12	1	2	0	226	302	335	636	109	287	24	8	288	83	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	0.0
2029	20	MLB CTX	WSH	48%	124	110	26	5	1	2	11	29	2	4	1	229	306	345	651	116	289	23	9	294	87	-2	+0	+0	-1	+3	0.0
2030	21	MLB CTX	WSH	54%	203	180	43	8	2	4	18	47	3	7	2	232	309	355	664	123	290	23	9	299	90	-2	+1	+0	-1	+4	0.1
2031	22	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	259	232	54	10	2	5	22	59	3	9	2	234	312	362	674	128	291	23	8	303	93	-2	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.3
2032	23	MLB CTX	WSH	58%	295	263	63	12	3	6	26	67	4	10	3	236	313	369	682	132	292	23	9	306	95	-2	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.4
2033	24	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	314	280	67	12	3	7	27	71	4	11	3	238	315	372	687	135	293	23	9	308	96	-1	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.5
2034	25	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	325	290	69	13	3	7	28	74	4	11	3	238	315	375	690	136	293	23	9	309	97	-1	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.5
2035	26	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	333	297	70	13	3	7	29	76	4	12	3	238	315	376	691	138	293	23	9	310	97	-1	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.5
2036	27	MLB CTX	WSH	55%	327	291	70	13	3	7	29	75	4	11	3	237	314	373	688	136	292	23	9	308	96	-1	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.5
2037	28	MLB CTX	WSH	55%	320	285	67	12	3	7	28	74	4	11	3	235	312	369	681	133	291	23	9	306	94	-2	+1	-0	-2	+7	0.4
2038	29	MLB CTX	WSH	53%	302	269	62	11	2	6	26	71	4	10	3	233	309	362	672	130	290	24	9	302	92	-3	+1	-1	-2	+7	0.2
2039	30	MLB CTX	WSH	53%	290	260	60	11	2	6	25	69	3	9	3	230	306	354	660	125	288	24	9	297	89	-4	+1	-1	-2	+6	0.0
2040	31	MLB CTX	WSH	52%	278	249	56	10	2	5	24	67	3	8	3	225	301	345	645	119	285	24	9	291	85	-5	+0	-1	-2	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3420	3051	717	132	29	70	297	791	43	115	32	235	312	366	678	131	293	23	9	303	92	-29	+10	-4	-21	+74	3.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	136	25	6	13	56	150	8	22	6	234	310	366	676	131	293	23	9	303	92	-5	+2	-1	-4	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	6552	5840	1366	246	68	130	571	1506	85	227	59	234	311	366	677	132	292	23	9	304	92	-57	+20	-7	-38	+138	5.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	135	24	7	13	57	149	8	23	6	233	310	366	676	133	290	23	9	304	92	-6	+2	-1	-4	+14	0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Nationals · 179 PAwOBA .417 → .271 (−145)K% 15.6% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.64%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	19.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.20%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	—	11.34%
HBP% /PA	1.68%	—	×0.700	—	—	1.17%
Singles /BIP	22.22%	÷1.000	×0.680	×0.984	—	14.87%
Doubles /BIP	8.55%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.984	—	5.05%
Triples /BIP	3.42%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.984	—	2.02%
Home runs /BIP	4.27%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	—	2.01%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age unknown — no age adjustment. Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.

Result: wOBA .417 → .271; ISO .228 → .128; BABIP .351 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#2Billy Hatcher'84-'95 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,752 PA	7.2	4,752	54	218	261*	310*	385*	-20	-5	4.9	6.8
/162	664	8	30	-2.9	-0.7	0.7	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	5.3	3,514	70	119	236	309	370	-21	+0	5.7	5.1
/162	664	13	22	-4.0	+0.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#4Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#5Pat Sheridan'81-'91 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,700 PA	4.1	2,700	51	86	250*	319*	387*	-22	-3	4.0	4.2
/162	664	13	21	-5.4	-0.8	1.0	pk7: 4
#6Emil Brown'97-'09 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,508 PA	3.8	2,508	59	52	247*	314*	388*	-25	+8	3.5	4.0
/162	664	16	14	-6.6	+2.1	0.9	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Samil Serrano (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	221/295/325	104	287	1	3	24%	8%	78	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Franchy Cordero 2014 · A	19	44→54	38→55	58→50	41	207/265/293	86	304	5	13	32%	7%	58	-1.7	208/250/287	79	323	5	13	35%	5%	51	-2.3	250/293/418	168	373	15	17	35%	5%	94	+0.7
●Jahmai Jones 2016 · A	18	43→51	38→50	50	42	204/262/285	80	276	5	16	27%	6%	55	-1.9	230/286/334	104	297	8	16	24%	6%	76	-0.4	250/346/426	175	326	16	18	26%	11%	116	+1.4
✕Taylor Trammell 2017 · A	19	47→48	37→55	55	39	218/270/298	80	323	4	18	32%	6%	61	-1.5	216/285/315	99	312	8	20	31%	8%	72	-0.7	213/300/386	173	283	21	17	31%	10%	93	+0.5
●Gabriel Gonzalez 2022 · A	18	41→51	42→50	51→45	46	199/266/307	109	243	8	10	22%	7%	63	-1.4	240/301/360	120	292	12	8	21%	5%	88	+0.4	266/321/397	132	318	13	6	20%	5%	101	+1.1
●Juan Lagares 2007 · A	18	40→50	38→45	53→50	45	192/255/278	86	256	4	11	26%	7%	51	-2.2	206/244/285	79	280	4	10	26%	4%	48	-2.5	276/309/387	111	347	6	13	22%	4%	93	+0.7
✕Noelvi Marte 2021 · A	19	41→51	41→50	49→55	45	201/256/299	98	254	8	12	24%	7%	56	-1.9	233/299/372	139	304	15	16	27%	8%	90	+0.6	241/309/383	142	307	16	19	26%	8%	94	+0.7
●Abraham Almonte 2009 · A	20	41→51	41→55	53→55	45	200/260/302	102	263	8	18	27%	7%	59	-1.7	233/279/330	97	309	6	20	25%	6%	72	-0.7	259/316/379	120	330	8	25	22%	7%	94	+0.8
✕Nick Williams 2013 · A	19	48→58	38→55	57→45	37	222/270/308	86	326	4	14	32%	5%	63	-1.3	237/275/383	146	352	13	8	35%	4%	83	+0.1	247/302/419	172	327	21	4	30%	5%	101	+1.1
✕Eury Pérez 2009 · A	19	44→54	36→40	54→65	51	204/286/265	61	255	3	20	20%	8%	61	-1.5	257/302/327	70	316	4	28	19%	5%	79	-0.2	300/333/376	75	363	4	37	18%	3%	96	+0.8
✕Enmanuel Valdez 2017 · A	18	38→47	40→55	51→45	49	182/253/279	97	221	6	7	20%	8%	52	-2.2	185/248/289	104	245	8	7	27%	7%	52	-2.2	223/287/404	181	270	24	8	27%	8%	92	+0.5
✕Alberto Rodriguez 2021 · A	20	42→52	38→50	52→50	44	203/259/282	79	268	5	14	25%	7%	53	-2.1	228/290/353	125	327	10	8	31%	7%	82	-0.0	228/292/360	132	326	11	7	31%	7%	81	-0.1
✕Jean Ramirez 2019 · A	18	44→49	36→40	51→65	47	208/275/276	67	273	3	15	24%	8%	59	-1.7	204/271/266	62	260	4	22	21%	8%	55	-2.0	200/270/265	65	257	6	39	23%	8%	53	-0.7
✕Mickey Moniak 2017 · A	19	45→55	37→60	51→50	39	214/262/298	84	292	3	11	27%	5%	58	-1.7	217/254/316	99	304	6	8	29%	4%	59	-1.7	248/285/446	198	311	24	11	28%	4%	103	+1.1
✕Manuel Margot 2014 · A	19	43→53	38→50	55→60	53	197/269/276	79	220	4	19	13%	8%	57	-1.8	244/286/360	116	280	9	27	16%	5%	81	-0.1	247/301/391	144	290	13	20	19%	7%	95	+0.8
✕Jose Siri 2014 · A	19	42→52	39→60	51→55	40	201/251/292	92	270	5	14	27%	5%	53	-2.1	186/221/282	96	288	6	15	36%	4%	38	-3.2	235/282/445	210	322	27	25	35%	5%	100	+0.9
●Leandro Castro 2008 · A	19	40→50	39→50	53→50	47	193/257/272	79	233	6	18	20%	7%	51	-2.2	206/247/298	92	258	7	14	22%	4%	53	-2.1	244/286/388	144	268	16	11	16%	5%	85	+0.2
✕Estevan Florial 2017 · A	19	39→49	42→50	52→60	40	192/255/297	106	289	10	11	35%	7%	56	-1.9	217/275/334	117	369	10	13	40%	7%	72	-0.7	214/285/371	157	317	17	29	36%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Che-Hsuan Lin 2008 · A	19	41→51	42→40	56→55	40	200/253/311	111	279	8	14	30%	6%	58	-1.7	229/294/317	88	284	6	19	20%	7%	75	-0.5	243/314/319	76	293	5	22	18%	8%	80	-0.1
✕Ronny Ugarte 2023 · A	18	39	41→45	47→30	46	193/268/298	105	252	7	6	26%	8%	61	-1.5	208/273/298	90	262	5	5	21%	7%	63	-1.4	229/293/323	94	294	8	2	24%	8%	73	-0.3
✕Ramón Flores 2011 · A	19	45→55	37→45	48→50	47	211/276/288	77	274	4	7	23%	8%	61	-1.5	238/295/334	96	303	7	9	22%	7%	78	-0.3	255/328/354	99	304	9	8	18%	9%	94	+0.6

Samil Serrano

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps