Mickey Moniak

LF Colorado Rockies

Age 29 L/R 6'1" / 209 lbs MLB HR +30%H +12% Svc 5.157 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANArb-3FA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	26	MLBLAA	418	.219/.266/.380	14	8	81	0.0
2025	27	MLBCOL	461	.270/.308/.518	24	9	109	-0.1
2026	28	MLBCOL	436	.238/.282/.480	23	1	91	-0.2
2027PROJ	29	MLBCOL	344	.254/.298/.494	18	4	101	0.4
2028PROJ	30	MLBCOL	330	.250/.293/.484	17	3	97	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.2 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service5.157First FA2028

2027Arb-3$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Bat Spd75

Barrel%69

Speed66

Avg EV51

xwOBA44

Form.218/.255/.411 ▼▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .237/.280/.448

CompsJohn Rodriguez (age 28) · Seth Brown (age 30) · Bobby Dalbec (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 72101vR 111

AVG/OBP/SLG.254 / .298 / .494

PA344

HR18

K%26

BB%5

BABIP295

ISO243

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

xAVG

260.232

POWER55

Barrel%

6911.0

Avg EV

5189.2

Bat Spd

7574.0

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

6628.1

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%30%▼▼34% over 74 PA (60d) · proj 26%

BB%4%▼3% over 74 PA (60d) · proj 5%

ISO.193▼.153 over 72 AB (60d) · proj .211

HR/BB6.0%▼4.3% over 47 BBE (60d) · proj 6.8%

BABIP.273▼.200 over 45 BIP (60d) · proj .277

SLASH.218/.255/.411▼▼proj .237/.280/.448

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 943 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

848

—

wRC+

117

▶▶R

wOBA

254

341

▶▶R

ISO

092

236

▶▶R

BABIP

291

295

—

32.6%

24.2%

▶▶R

BB%

5.3%

4.7%

◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2020

Service 5.157 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-3	$1M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	18	ROK	GCL Phillies	—	194	176	50	11	4	1	11	35	5	10	4	284	344	409	753	125	345	18	6	334	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	509	466	110	22	6	5	28	110	6	11	7	236	288	341	629	105	293	22	6	279	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+	Clearwater Threshers	—	465	433	117	28	3	5	22	100	2	6	5	270	309	383	692	113	334	22	5	304	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	504	465	117	28	13	11	33	111	2	15	3	252	303	439	742	187	307	22	7	324	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	74	70	13	4	2	0	4	17	0	3	0	186	230	300	530	114	245	23	5	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	22	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	18	14	3	0	0	0	4	6	0	0	0	214	389	214	603		375	33	22	306	93	-0	+0	-1	-0	+0	-0.1
2021	23	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	37	33	3	0	0	1	3	16	0	0	0	91	167	182	348	91	125	43	8	162	-20	-5	+0	+0	+2	+1	-0.3
2021	23	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	409	365	87	15	8	15	31	101	4	5	2	238	305	447	752	208	280	25	8	323	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	112	106	18	3	1	3	4	44	1	1	0	170	207	302	509	132	254	39	4	225	39	-8	+0	-0	+1	+2	-0.5
2022	24	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	100	92	26	6	0	7	8	22	0	5	3	283	340	576	916	293	302	22	8	396	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	25	23	9	1	1	1	1	6	0	0	0	391	417	652	1.069	261	471	24	4	444	157	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	323	311	87	21	2	14	9	113	3	6	3	280	307	495	802	215	397	35	3	350	123	+9	+0	+2	+2	+7	1.9
2023	25	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	141	130	40	2	5	8	7	35	3	2	1	308	357	585	942	277	364	25	5	404	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	418	392	86	17	2	14	21	114	4	8	4	219	266	380	646	161	272	27	5	286	81	-10	+0	-1	+1	+9	0.0
2025	27	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	461	434	117	20	8	24	22	110	2	9	3	270	308	518	826	249	307	24	5	356	109	+5	+1	-11	-5	+10	-0.1
2026	28	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	436	404	96	17	6	23	22	120	3	1	1	238	282	480	762	243	272	28	5	326	91	-5	-0	-2	-5	+9	-0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1805	1694	410	78	19	79	85	523	13	25	11	242	283	450	734	208	300	29	5	319	102	+4	+1	-13	-4	+39	2.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	18	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies	—	194	180	40	8	3	1	7	50	5	10	4	222	271	317	587	94	286	26	4	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	509	475	100	20	6	5	19	148	6	11	7	211	250	309	559	99	279	29	4	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+ MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	465	438	104	25	2	3	17	143	2	6	5	237	269	324	593	87	331	31	4	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	—	504	475	102	24	12	7	24	136	2	15	3	215	255	360	615	145	284	27	5	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	22	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	18	14	3	0	0	0	4	6	0	0	0	214	389	214	603		375	33	22	305	93	-0	+0	-1	-0	+0	-0.1
2021	23	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	37	34	3	0	0	1	2	16	0	0	0	88	139	176	315	88	125	43	5	139	-20	-5	+0	+0	+2	+1	-0.3
2021	23	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	409	378	80	14	7	12	18	122	4	5	2	212	255	381	636	169	257	30	4	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	112	106	18	3	1	3	4	44	1	1	0	170	207	302	509	132	254	39	4	225	39	-8	+0	-0	+1	+2	-0.5
2022	24	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	100	94	22	5	0	5	6	27	0	5	3	234	280	447	727	213	273	27	6	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	—	25	23	9	1	1	1	1	7	0	0	0	391	417	652	1.069	261	432	28	4	400	157	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	323	312	88	22	2	14	8	113	3	6	3	282	307	500	807	218	397	35	2	350	123	+9	+0	+2	+2	+7	1.9
2023	25	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	141	132	34	2	5	6	5	42	3	2	1	258	300	485	785	227	316	30	4	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	418	392	87	18	2	14	21	114	4	8	4	222	269	385	654	163	272	27	5	287	81	-10	+0	-1	+1	+9	0.0
2025	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	461	435	109	19	6	21	21	110	2	9	3	251	288	467	755	216	307	24	5	329	109	+5	+1	-11	-5	+10	-0.1
2026	28	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	436	404	88	16	4	20	22	120	3	1	1	218	263	426	689	208	272	28	5	303	91	-5	-0	-2	-5	+9	-0.2
2016	18	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies	—	194	180	40	8	3	1	7	50	5	10	4	222	271	317	587	94	298	26	4	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies	—	194	176	50	11	4	1	11	35	5	10	4	284	344	409	753	125	345	18	6	334	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	509	475	100	20	6	5	19	148	6	11	7	211	250	309	559	99	289	29	4	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	509	466	110	22	6	5	28	110	6	11	7	236	288	341	629	105	293	22	6	279	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+ MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	465	438	104	25	2	3	17	143	2	6	5	237	269	324	593	87	338	31	4	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+ RAW	Clearwater Threshers	—	465	433	117	28	3	5	22	100	2	6	5	270	309	383	692	113	334	22	5	304	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	578	545	117	27	14	8	28	156	2	18	3	215	256	360	615	145	285	27	5	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	AA RAW	2 teams	—	578	535	130	32	15	11	37	128	2	18	3	243	294	421	714	178	299	22	6	313	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	22	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	18	14	3	0	0	0	4	6	0	0	0	214	389	214	603		375	33	22	305	93	-0	+0	-1	-0	+0	-0.1
2020	22	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	18	14	3	0	0	0	4	6	0	0	0	214	389	214	603		375	33	22	306	93	-0	+0	-1	-0	+0	-0.1
2021	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	446	412	82	14	7	12	20	138	4	5	2	199	243	354	597	155	259	31	4	259	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	446	398	90	15	8	16	34	117	4	5	2	226	294	425	718	198	271	26	8	310	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	237	224	48	9	2	9	10	78	1	6	3	214	251	393	644	179	283	33	4	279	75	-7	+0	-0	+1	+5	-0.1
2022	24	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	237	221	53	10	2	11	13	72	1	6	3	240	285	452	738	213	302	30	5	320	75	-7	+0	-0	+1	+5	-0.1
2023	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	464	444	120	23	7	19	13	155	6	8	4	270	300	482	782	212	373	33	3	341	117	+9	+0	+2	+2	+10	2.3
2023	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	464	441	127	23	7	22	16	148	6	8	4	288	322	522	843	234	386	32	3	367	117	+9	+0	+2	+2	+10	2.3
2024	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	418	392	87	18	2	14	21	114	4	8	4	222	269	385	654	163	275	27	5	287	81	-10	+0	-1	+1	+9	0.0
2024	26	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	418	392	86	17	2	14	21	114	4	8	4	219	266	380	646	161	272	27	5	286	81	-10	+0	-1	+1	+9	0.0
2025	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	461	435	109	19	6	21	21	110	2	9	3	251	288	467	755	216	287	24	5	329	109	+5	+1	-11	-5	+10	-0.1
2025	27	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	—	461	434	117	20	8	24	22	110	2	9	3	270	308	518	826	249	307	24	5	356	109	+5	+1	-11	-5	+10	-0.1
2026	28	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	436	404	88	16	4	20	22	120	3	1	1	218	263	426	689	208	251	28	5	303	91	-5	-0	-2	-5	+9	-0.2
2026	28	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	—	436	404	96	17	6	23	22	120	3	1	1	238	282	480	762	243	272	28	5	326	91	-5	-0	-2	-5	+9	-0.2
2016	18	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies	—	194	180	40	8	3	1	7	50	5	10	4	222	271	317	587	94	286	26	4	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	509	479	100	20	6	5	19	148	6	11	7	209	250	307	557	98	279	29	4	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+ MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	465	443	104	25	2	3	17	143	2	6	5	235	269	321	590	86	331	31	4	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	578	543	117	27	14	8	28	156	2	18	3	215	256	361	617	145	284	27	5	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	22	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	18	14	3	0	0	0	4	6	0	0	0	214	389	214	603		375	33	22	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	446	419	82	14	7	12	20	138	4	5	2	196	243	348	592	153	246	31	4	259	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	237	224	48	9	2	9	10	78	1	6	3	214	251	393	644	179	281	33	4	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	464	442	120	23	7	19	13	155	6	8	4	271	300	484	784	213	372	33	3	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	418	390	87	18	2	14	21	114	4	8	4	223	269	387	656	164	272	27	5	287	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	461	435	109	19	6	21	21	110	2	9	3	251	288	467	755	216	307	24	5	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	436	408	88	16	4	20	22	120	3	1	1	216	263	422	685	206	272	28	5	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	418	390	87	18	2	14	21	114	4	8	4	223	269	387	656	164	272	27	5	287	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	461	435	109	19	6	21	21	110	2	9	3	251	288	467	755	216	307	24	5	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	436	408	88	16	4	20	22	120	3	1	1	216	263	422	685	206	272	28	5	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	29	MLB MLE	COL	100%	437	409	97	17	4	20	22	114	3	5	1	238	282	448	730	210	277	26	5	317	101	+0	+1	-1	-5	+9	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	29	MLB CTX	COL	100%	344	321	82	14	5	18	18	90	2	4	1	254	298	494	792	240	295	26	5	342	101	+0	+0	-0	-4	+7	0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	COL	100%	330	308	73	13	3	15	17	87	2	3	1	234	278	439	717	205	274	26	5	312	97	-1	+0	-3	-4	+7	0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	COL	100%	330	308	77	13	4	17	17	87	2	3	1	250	293	484	777	234	292	26	5	336	97	-1	+0	-3	-4	+7	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2135	2002	487	91	23	96	102	610	15	28	12	243	285	456	741	212	299	29	5	322	81	+3	+1	-15	-8	+46	2.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	610	148	28	7	29	31	186	5	9	4	243	285	454	739	211	298	29	5	322	81	+1	+0	-5	-2	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	4900	4592	1047	205	59	143	217	1395	39	89	38	228	269	392	661	164	292	28	4	287	81	+4	+1	-16	-11	+54	3.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	609	139	27	8	19	29	185	5	12	5	228	269	392	661	164	292	28	4	287	81	+1	+0	-4	-3	+14	0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAASalt Lake Bees · 141 PAwOBA .395 → .321 (−74)K% 24.8% → 29.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.82%	÷1.010	×1.200	—	—	29.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.96%	÷1.005	×0.690	—	×1.033	3.52%
HBP% /PA	2.13%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	2.07%
Singles /BIP	26.32%	÷1.058	×0.930	×0.950	×1.033	22.71%
Doubles /BIP	2.11%	÷0.967	×0.830	×0.950	×1.033	1.77%
Triples /BIP	5.26%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.950	×1.033	5.57%
Home runs /BIP	8.42%	÷1.003	×0.700	—	×1.033	6.07%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 112, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 102, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .395 → .321; ISO .277 → .219; BABIP .364 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASalt Lake Bees · 100 PAwOBA .385 → .309 (−75)K% 22.0% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.00%	÷0.989	×1.200	—	—	26.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.00%	÷1.034	×0.690	—	×1.048	5.60%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.57%	÷0.993	×0.930	×0.969	×1.048	17.67%
Doubles /BIP	8.57%	÷0.956	×0.830	×0.969	×1.048	7.55%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.969	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	10.00%	÷0.978	×0.700	—	×1.048	7.50%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 98, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .385 → .309; ISO .293 → .221; BABIP .302 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAReading Fightin Phils · 25 PAwOBA .450 → .400 (−50)K% 24.0% → 29.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.00%	÷1.005	×1.220	—	—	29.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.00%	÷1.052	×0.700	—	×1.012	2.69%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	0.00%
Singles /BIP	35.29%	÷1.069	×0.970	—	×1.012	32.41%
Doubles /BIP	5.88%	÷0.930	×0.860	—	×1.012	5.51%
Triples /BIP	5.88%	÷0.950	×0.950	—	×1.012	5.96%
Home runs /BIP	5.88%	÷1.051	×0.780	—	×1.012	4.42%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 114, 2B 86, 3B 90, K 101, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .450 → .400; ISO .261 → .227; BABIP .471 → .432. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 409 PAwOBA .317 → .270 (−47)K% 24.7% → 29.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.69%	÷0.992	×1.200	—	—	29.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.60%	÷1.061	×0.690	—	×1.050	4.51%
HBP% /PA	0.98%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.97%
Singles /BIP	18.56%	÷1.016	×0.930	×0.990	×1.050	17.65%
Doubles /BIP	5.68%	÷0.952	×0.830	×0.990	×1.050	5.15%
Triples /BIP	3.03%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.990	×1.050	2.52%
Home runs /BIP	5.68%	÷0.957	×0.700	—	×1.050	4.36%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 103, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 98, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .317 → .270; ISO .208 → .169; BABIP .280 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAReading Fightin Phils · 504 PAwOBA .315 → .267 (−48)K% 22.0% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.02%	÷0.995	×1.220	—	—	27.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.35%	÷0.978	×0.700	—	×1.050	4.77%
HBP% /PA	0.40%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	0.35%
Singles /BIP	18.36%	÷1.023	×0.970	×0.950	×1.050	17.36%
Doubles /BIP	7.91%	÷0.980	×0.860	×0.950	×1.050	6.92%
Triples /BIP	3.67%	÷0.959	×0.950	×0.950	×1.050	3.63%
Home runs /BIP	3.11%	÷1.182	×0.780	—	×1.050	2.15%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 136, 1B 105, 2B 96, 3B 92, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .315 → .267; ISO .187 → .152; BABIP .307 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Clearwater Threshers · 465 PAwOBA .300 → .262 (−38)K% 21.5% → 30.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.51%	÷0.995	×1.420	—	—	30.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.73%	÷1.005	×0.750	—	×1.042	3.68%
HBP% /PA	0.43%	—	×0.930	—	×1.042	0.42%
Singles /BIP	24.32%	÷0.950	×0.920	×0.999	×1.042	24.51%
Doubles /BIP	8.41%	÷1.028	×0.960	×0.999	×1.042	8.17%
Triples /BIP	0.90%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.999	×1.042	0.76%
Home runs /BIP	1.50%	÷1.197	×0.880	—	×1.042	1.15%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 90, 2B 106, 3B 100, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .300 → .262; ISO .113 → .092; BABIP .334 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ALakewood BlueClaws · 509 PAwOBA .275 → .240 (−34)K% 21.6% → 29.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.61%	÷0.994	×1.340	—	—	29.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.30%	÷0.980	×0.660	—	×1.045	3.73%
HBP% /PA	1.18%	—	×0.770	—	×1.045	0.95%
Singles /BIP	21.63%	÷1.030	×0.920	×1.021	×1.045	20.62%
Doubles /BIP	6.18%	÷0.927	×0.820	×1.021	×1.045	5.83%
Triples /BIP	1.69%	÷1.021	×0.940	×1.021	×1.045	1.66%
Home runs /BIP	1.40%	÷0.854	×0.820	—	×1.045	1.41%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 106, 2B 85, 3B 104, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.

Result: wOBA .275 → .240; ISO .105 → .097; BABIP .293 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ROKGCL Phillies · 194 PAwOBA .329 → .248 (−81)K% 18.0% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.04%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	25.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.67%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.022	3.59%
HBP% /PA	2.58%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	1.90%
Singles /BIP	24.11%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.031	×1.022	20.84%
Doubles /BIP	7.80%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.031	×1.022	5.92%
Triples /BIP	2.84%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.031	×1.022	2.15%
Home runs /BIP	0.71%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.022	0.57%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .329 → .248; ISO .125 → .090; BABIP .345 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Henry Rodriguez'92-'02 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,343 PA	5.0	3,343	160	10	247*	307*	472*	-39	-10	9.3	10.2
/162	664	32	2	-7.7	-2.0	1.8	pk7: 11
#2Hunter Renfroelast yr '25 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,727 PA	5.6	3,727	188	15	235	297	458	-40	-32	7.3	8.0
/162	664	33	3	-7.1	-5.7	1.3	pk7: 9
#3Scott Hairstonlast yr '14 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,624 PA	4.0	2,624	106	36	242	297	444	-18	-16	6.0	6.6
/162	664	27	9	-4.5	-4.1	1.5	pk7: 7
#4Cory Snyder'86-'94 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,933 PA	5.9	3,933	149	28	243*	290*	445*	-35	-18	4.7	5.7
/162	664	25	5	-5.9	-3.0	0.8	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	3.7	2,424	109	32	244	281	456	-26	-18	4.8	4.8
/162	664	30	9	-7.1	-5.0	1.3	pk7: 5
#5Craig Monroelast yr '09 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,898 PA	4.4	2,898	114	19	253	302	443	-28	-32	3.8	4.3
/162	664	26	4	-6.5	-7.4	0.9	pk7: 5
#6Charlie Spikes'72-'80 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,232 PA	3.4	2,232	65	27	246*	307*	433*	-26	-16	1.3	1.7
/162	664	19	8	-7.6	-4.6	0.4	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Mickey Moniak (OGILVIE)	29	45	55	60	35	236/280/444	209	277	16	4	26%	5%	101	+0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕John Rodriguez 2006 · MLB	28	47	56→55	52→40	44	248/312/442	194	299	25	9	26%	7%	112	+2.2	243/316/405	162	306	17	5	25%	8%	104	+1.6	236/316/384	148	302	15	1	25%	8%	97	+0.5
●Seth Brown 2022 · MLB	30	40→48	64→65	51→50	42	230/284/471	242	271	33	9	30%	7%	108	+1.9	235/296/446	211	281	28	9	27%	8%	107	+1.8	235/296/432	197	283	27	8	27%	7%	104	+1.3
✕Bobby Dalbec 2023 · MLB	28	42	59→60	53→50	41	227/291/432	205	299	28	6	34%	7%	101	+1.4	204/276/370	166	314	22	12	40%	8%	82	-0.0	189/264/347	158	301	21	13	42%	8%	69	-0.8
✕Brian O'Grady 2021 · MLB	29	43→38	57→60	52→50	40	227/284/423	196	297	25	16	32%	6%	97	+1.1	214/281/373	159	294	17	14	31%	8%	84	+0.1	191/264/352	161	259	16	13	32%	8%	72	-0.5
✕Andy Phillips 2006 · MLB	29	45→55	59→55	49→40	45	246/298/451	205	276	28	6	23%	6%	108	+1.9	251/301/404	153	287	18	6	19%	6%	97	+1.1	256/307/392	136	289	15	4	17%	6%	97	+0.6
✕Gregory Polanco 2021 · MLB	29	41→51	56→60	51→55	47	219/288/411	192	274	24	12	29%	9%	95	+1.0	224/291/392	168	281	21	18	27%	8%	92	+0.7	218/287/384	167	266	22	23	26%	8%	88	+0.4
✕Micah Hoffpauir 2009 · MLB	29	50→48	59→60	47→40	44	264/305/480	216	289	26	5	20%	5%	118	+2.6	235/287/421	186	260	22	5	19%	6%	97	+1.1	215/274/390	174	234	21	2	19%	7%	85	+0.2
●Ryan O'Hearn 2022 · MLB	29	42→52	56→60	48→45	46	229/292/415	186	273	26	5	27%	8%	98	+1.2	254/304/420	166	303	20	6	23%	6%	103	+1.5	268/340/432	164	304	21	3	19%	9%	120	+2.3
✕Jason Perry 2009 · MLB	28	43→51	54→55	52→45	43	225/297/407	182	291	22	7	30%	7%	98	+1.2	221/298/387	166	291	20	9	30%	8%	93	+0.8	167/268/315	147	210	19	4	30%	10%	66	-0.2
✕Laynce Nix 2010 · MLB	29	43→47	57→60	44→45	41	231/278/433	202	276	25	5	27%	6%	97	+1.1	248/298/433	185	300	21	4	24%	7%	104	+1.6	253/306/434	180	309	21	2	24%	7%	107	+0.7
✕Valentino Pascucci 2008 · AAA	29	42	58→55	51→45	46	228/307/430	202	285	27	10	30%	8%	107	+1.9	215/298/385	170	281	22	5	30%	10%	93	+0.8	202/291/365	164	262	22	3	31%	10%	83	+0.1
●Rick Ankiel 2008 · MLB	29	40→48	61→65	45→50	41	228/271/442	214	253	31	5	25%	5%	97	+1.1	240/295/438	198	283	25	6	25%	7%	104	+1.6	238/300/427	189	286	23	5	25%	7%	104	+1.0
✕Tyrone Taylor 2024 · MLB	30	45→54	57→60	55	42	241/293/448	207	278	24	13	24%	5%	106	+1.8	244/295/404	160	296	15	16	22%	5%	95	+1.0	248/299/400	152	299	13	17	21%	5%	97	+0.6
✕Pedro Álvarez 2016 · MLB	29	43→48	62→65	47→45	46	239/302/458	219	275	32	6	27%	8%	112	+2.2	231/288/431	200	275	28	3	27%	7%	100	+1.3	221/275/409	189	263	27	1	27%	7%	89	+0.4
✕Alex Guerrero 2015 · AAA	28	48	54→60	55→45	40	249/288/430	181	292	21	9	23%	4%	99	+1.3	229/266/395	166	270	21	8	24%	4%	83	+0.1	233/263/431	197	267	28	3	25%	3%	93	+0.3
●Luke Raley 2024 · MLB	29	48→49	56→60	52→50	41	245/326/442	197	328	24	15	31%	7%	117	+2.6	237/316/434	197	308	25	12	30%	7%	112	+2.2	228/307/423	195	294	26	8	31%	6%	107	+1.0
●Garrett Jones 2010 · MLB	29	49→52	55→60	50	45	258/301/446	189	289	23	14	21%	6%	108	+1.9	254/310/448	194	286	24	9	20%	8%	112	+2.2	252/311/453	202	280	25	5	20%	8%	114	+2.2
✕Kyle Garlick 2022 · MLB	30	44→49	57→60	49→40	40	233/289/438	205	304	25	7	32%	6%	102	+1.5	208/271/373	165	284	22	4	34%	7%	80	-0.1	178/246/318	140	247	19	1	35%	7%	58	-1.2
✕Hank Blalock 2010 · MLB	29	47→57	59→65	52→45	45	252/299/469	216	272	27	5	20%	6%	113	+2.3	248/301/414	166	287	20	8	21%	7%	100	+1.3	264/315/368	104	318	12	9	20%	6%	93	+0.3
●Max Kepler 2022 · MLB	29	42→52	59→60	52→50	55	227/314/439	212	238	26	9	19%	10%	112	+2.2	239/316/407	168	269	20	6	19%	9%	105	+1.7	244/317/403	159	278	18	2	19%	9%	105	+1.2

Mickey Moniak

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps