Luke Raley — OGILVIE

Luke RaleyRF Seattle Mariners

Age 31 L/R 6'3" / 235 lbs MLB HR +3% Svc 3.616 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.7 · 2026

wRC+†vL 45133vR 142

AVG/OBP/SLG.230 / .318 / .439

PA350

HR16

SB5

K%30

BB%7

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

40→40

PWR

55→55

SPD

60→60

EYE

45↗50

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.3peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2021

Service 3.616 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$2M	+1.7	$14M	+$12M
2027	Arb-2	$4M	+1.0	$8M	+$5M
2028	Arb-3	$4M	+0.6	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$8M		$24M	+$16M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	21	A	2 teams	275	246	60	11	5	3	12	64	10	4	4	.244	.306	.366	.672	.122	.310	23	4	.292	82	-6	-1	+0	-3	+8	-0.2
2017	22	A+	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	541	494	117	16	7	11	27	167	19	9	1	.237	.302	.364	.666	.128	.334	31	5	.289	79	-13	+1	+0	-6	+15	-0.2
2018	23	AA	2 teams	569	514	118	17	8	19	23	189	24	5	0	.230	.294	.405	.699	.175	.315	33	4	.300	88	-8	+1	+0	-6	+16	0.3
2019	24	AAA	3 teams	251	232	59	7	0	10	6	85	10	4	0	.254	.302	.414	.716	.159	.350	34	2	.308	94	-2	+1	+0	-3	+7	0.3
2021	26	AAA	2 teams	390	346	78	12	2	15	21	121	22	8	3	.225	.311	.402	.713	.176	.299	31	5	.314	99	-1	+0	-1	-4	+11	0.6
2022	27	AAA	2 teams	340	297	73	8	1	12	25	112	15	7	2	.246	.335	.401	.736	.155	.349	33	7	.321	104	+1	+1	+0	-4	+10	0.9
2023	28	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	406	357	87	23	3	18	28	128	18	14	3	.244	.330	.476	.806	.232	.324	32	7	.352	127	+13	+2	-2	-4	+12	1.9
2024	29	MLB	Seattle Mariners	455	404	100	19	2	23	27	135	20	11	2	.248	.326	.475	.801	.228	.310	30	6	.342	120	+10	+1	-7	-5	+13	1.4
2025	30	MLB	2 teams	257	219	46	9	0	6	20	79	14	2	1	.210	.316	.333	.650	.123	.296	31	8	.289	79	-6	+0	-3	-3	+7	-0.4
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	31	MLB	Seattle Mariners	79	72	21	4	1	5	5	29	2	0	1	.292	.354	.583	.938	.292	.421	37	6	.401	165	+6	-0	-1	-1	+2	0.6
ROS	31	MLB	SEA	271	239	57	11	1	13	19	85	11	5	2	.238	.323	.456	.779	.218	.311	31	7	.347	124	+7	+0	-1	-3	+8	1.1
TOT	31	MLB	SEA	350	311	78	15	2	18	24	114	13	5	3	.251	.330	.486	.816	.235	.333	33	7	.359	133	+13	-0	-3	-4	+10	1.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	32	MLB	SEA	351	310	74	14	2	17	24	90	14	6	2	.239	.322	.461	.783	.223	.278	26	7	.342	120	+8	+0	-5	-4	+10	0.9
2028	33	MLB	SEA	321	283	66	12	2	15	22	85	13	4	1	.233	.318	.449	.766	.216	.276	26	7	.336	115	+6	+0	-6	-3	+9	0.6
2029	34	MLB	SEA	277	245	55	10	1	12	19	75	11	3	1	.224	.309	.420	.729	.196	.273	27	7	.329	110	+3	+0	-6	-3	+8	0.2
2030	35	MLB	SEA	226	200	44	8	1	10	15	64	9	2	0	.220	.304	.420	.724	.200	.271	28	7	.320	103	+1	+0	-7	-2	+6	-0.2
2031	36	MLB	SEA	169	149	33	6	1	7	11	50	7	1	0	.221	.305	.416	.721	.195	.267	30	7	.310	96	-1	+0	-7	-2	+5	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5099	4535	1067	183	36	191	299	1529	217	85	22	.235	.313	.418	.731	.183	.308	30	6	.319	102	+14	+8	-45	-55	+144	6.8
/ 162G	—			650	578	136	23	5	24	38	195	28	11	3	.235	.314	.417	.731	.182	.309	30	6	.319	102	+2	+1	-6	-7	+18	0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	21	A	Great Lakes Loons	231	200	49	11	4	2	15	47	9	4	4	.245	.326	.370	.696	.125	.301	20	6	.306	93	-2	-1	—	—	+7	0.4
2016	21	ROK	Ogden Raptors	44	40	20	3	2	2	3	3	1	0	0	.500	.545	.825	1.370	.325	.514	7	7	.587	307	+10	+0	—	—	+1	1.2
2017	22	A+	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	541	478	141	21	11	14	43	124	19	9	1	.295	.376	.473	.849	.178	.372	23	8	.377	146	+28	+1	—	—	+15	4.6
2018	23	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	551	484	133	19	8	20	36	137	24	4	0	.275	.355	.471	.826	.196	.338	25	7	.362	135	+22	+1	—	—	+16	3.9
2018	23	INTL	Salt River Rafters	18	14	3	0	1	0	3	4	0	1	0	.214	.353	.357	.710	.143	.273	22	17	.307	93	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2019	24	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	138	126	38	6	0	7	7	42	5	4	0	.302	.362	.516	.878	.214	.403	30	5	.387	155	+9	+1	—	—	+4	1.3
2019	24	ROK	GCL Twins	20	19	7	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	.368	.368	.526	.895	.158	.353	10	0	.376	146	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2019	24	INTL	Salt River Rafters	93	82	20	5	1	3	4	21	5	0	0	.244	.319	.439	.758	.195	.283	23	4	.330	111	+1	+0	—	—	+3	0.4
2021	26	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	72	66	12	1	0	2	2	25	4	0	0	.182	.250	.288	.538	.106	.256	35	3	.249	49	-4	+0	-1	-4	+2	-0.7
2021	26	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	318	272	80	14	2	19	27	74	18	8	3	.294	.394	.570	.964	.276	.339	23	8	.420	179	+29	+0	—	—	+9	3.9
2022	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	72	61	12	2	0	1	7	24	3	0	0	.197	.310	.279	.589	.082	.297	33	10	.276	70	-2	+0	+0	-4	+2	-0.4
2022	27	AAA	Durham Bulls	268	227	68	8	1	14	27	73	12	7	2	.300	.402	.529	.931	.229	.383	27	10	.408	171	+21	+1	—	—	+8	3.0
2023	28	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	406	357	89	23	3	19	28	128	18	14	3	.249	.335	.490	.825	.241	.330	32	7	.361	134	+16	+2	-2	-4	+12	2.2
2024	29	MLB	Seattle Mariners	455	404	98	19	2	22	27	135	20	11	2	.243	.322	.463	.784	.220	.305	30	6	.344	122	+11	+1	-7	-5	+13	1.4
2025	30	MLB	Seattle Mariners	219	183	37	8	0	4	19	64	13	2	1	.202	.321	.311	.632	.109	.284	29	9	.292	82	-4	+0	-3	-3	+6	-0.4
2025	30	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	38	35	11	1	0	3	2	12	1	0	0	.314	.368	.600	.968	.286	.400	32	5	.421	180	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			1224	1071	248	53	5	48	83	376	58	27	6	.232	.321	.425	.746	.193	.306	31	7	.331	111	+16	+3	-12	-20	+35	2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Raley (OGILVIE)	31	40	55	60	50	.239/.323/.460	.221	.279	17	7	25%	7%	124	+2.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Seth Brown 2023 · MLB	31	42→49	63→65	51→50	48	.236/.305/.470	.234	.273	32	11	27%	9%	118	+3.0	.240/.301/.433	.193	.292	26	8	27%	8%	105	+2.1	.240/.299/.419	.179	.294	25	5	27%	7%	99	+1.0
✕Pedro Álvarez 2018 · MLB	31	43→47	59→65	48→45	45	.235/.291/.437	.203	.277	28	3	27%	7%	103	+1.9	.232/.285/.414	.182	.285	26	4	28%	7%	94	+1.3	.224/.285/.403	.179	.268	29	0	28%	8%	89	+0.5
✕Logan Morrison 2019 · MLB	31	41→51	59→65	47→45	55	.229/.321/.440	.211	.254	28	4	23%	11%	116	+2.8	.236/.309/.458	.222	.257	30	4	22%	8%	116	+2.8	.246/.299/.515	.270	.245	40	0	21%	5%	123	+1.5
●Eric Thames 2019 · MLB	32	46→53	63→65	52→45	53	.244/.339/.487	.242	.311	30	9	31%	12%	135	+4.2	.243/.335/.465	.222	.316	28	7	30%	11%	128	+3.7	.238/.337/.459	.221	.309	28	4	30%	11%	116	+1.4
✕Micah Hoffpauir 2010 · MLB	30	48→46	57→60	50→40	45	.255/.298/.456	.201	.274	25	6	18%	6%	111	+2.5	.232/.289/.419	.187	.258	22	5	20%	7%	97	+1.5	.221/.283/.411	.191	.241	23	1	20%	7%	91	+1.0
●Jay Bruce 2017 · MLB	30	44→54	58→65	48→50	49	.236/.299/.443	.207	.268	25	8	23%	8%	108	+2.3	.245/.312/.477	.232	.272	30	4	22%	9%	122	+3.3	.237/.306/.472	.235	.258	32	2	23%	9%	113	+2.0
✕Mitch Haniger 2022 · MLB	31	45→55	64→65	50	48	.251/.322/.486	.235	.285	33	4	25%	8%	129	+3.7	.239/.308/.426	.187	.287	26	3	26%	8%	108	+2.3	.216/.291/.366	.150	.271	20	1	27%	9%	82	+0.3
●Brandon Moss 2015 · MLB	31	47→51	64→65	46→45	51	.254/.337/.497	.243	.299	32	4	27%	10%	137	+4.3	.234/.314/.456	.222	.287	29	3	29%	10%	118	+3.0	.222/.298/.447	.225	.269	31	1	30%	9%	104	+1.5
✕Matt Adams 2020 · MLB	31	44→54	63→65	46→40	44	.244/.300/.475	.231	.283	33	2	27%	7%	117	+2.9	.227/.287/.405	.178	.288	24	6	29%	7%	92	+1.2	.190/.228/.322	.132	.260	19	0	35%	4%	42	-1.5
✕Mike Yastrzemski 2022 · MLB	31	46→49	62→65	46→50	51	.250/.331/.491	.241	.292	29	6	25%	10%	133	+4.0	.228/.315/.428	.200	.277	23	6	25%	10%	110	+2.4	.230/.321/.425	.195	.272	22	5	23%	11%	107	+1.7
✕Alex Dickerson 2022 · MLB	32	49→54	56→55	48→45	48	.255/.326/.453	.198	.293	24	4	22%	8%	121	+3.2	.222/.282/.386	.164	.268	20	5	25%	7%	85	+0.7	.196/.249/.341	.145	.238	17	1	25%	6%	56	-0.8
●Garrett Jones 2012 · MLB	31	49→53	55→60	47→50	51	.255/.319/.444	.189	.288	22	11	20%	8%	115	+2.8	.252/.310/.450	.198	.288	24	5	21%	8%	114	+2.7	.249/.306/.443	.194	.285	23	2	21%	7%	106	+1.8
★Kyle Schwarber 2023 · MLB	30	39→48	68→70	49→45	56	.231/.334/.496	.265	.262	38	7	29%	13%	136	+4.2	.221/.343/.475	.254	.257	35	5	29%	15%	134	+4.1	.219/.352/.476	.257	.251	36	4	29%	16%	129	+4.4
●Carlos González 2016 · MLB	30	47→57	64→65	52→55	48	.260/.318/.501	.241	.289	33	10	24%	8%	131	+3.9	.266/.326/.458	.192	.312	23	4	22%	8%	122	+3.3	.266/.329/.436	.171	.318	18	4	22%	8%	109	+2.2
✕Bryan LaHair 2014 · MLB	31	50→54	59→65	46→40	46	.257/.320/.468	.211	.328	28	6	30%	9%	123	+3.3	.208/.271/.318	.110	.288	10	5	29%	8%	63	-0.9	.185/.249/.269	.084	.259	6	1	29%	8%	37	-2.0
✕Justin Bour 2019 · MLB	31	49→55	58→60	49→40	58	.256/.349/.455	.199	.293	27	3	22%	12%	131	+3.9	.228/.323/.426	.198	.275	26	4	26%	12%	113	+2.6	.197/.296/.401	.204	.229	28	2	28%	12%	92	+0.5
●David Dellucci 2006 · MLB	32	46	59→65	51→50	58	.246/.348/.461	.215	.283	26	12	23%	13%	132	+4.0	.256/.341/.463	.207	.297	24	6	21%	10%	130	+3.8	.251/.326/.436	.185	.292	19	4	20%	8%	113	+1.3
✕Patrick Wisdom 2023 · MLB	31	39→45	64→70	46→50	45	.219/.303/.462	.243	.291	33	9	36%	9%	115	+2.7	.218/.298/.468	.250	.284	34	10	35%	9%	115	+2.7	.202/.282/.474	.273	.244	39	11	36%	9%	109	+1.0
✕Rick Ankiel 2010 · MLB	31	45→48	58→65	44→50	45	.241/.297/.444	.203	.276	27	5	24%	7%	107	+2.2	.235/.297/.395	.160	.300	17	9	27%	8%	94	+1.3	.230/.291/.378	.149	.303	15	9	28%	8%	82	+0.2
✕Eddie Rosario 2022 · MLB	30	48→55	59→60	49→50	48	.255/.298/.456	.201	.257	28	9	15%	6%	111	+2.5	.228/.278/.388	.160	.265	19	9	22%	6%	84	+0.6	.221/.269/.388	.167	.261	21	11	24%	6%	79	+0.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)