Luke RaleyRF Seattle Mariners
Age 31 L/R 6'3" / 235 lbs MLB K +7%HR -5% Svc 3.616 · Ctrl thru 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 331 proj PA
wRC+†vL 86117vR 128
AVG/OBP/SLG
PA287
HR0
K%30
BB%7
BABIP307
ISO208
MLB%100%
Value2026 · WAR
2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)
BAT so far: +0.1 runs (287 MLB PA)BAT projected ROS: +-0.0 runs (0 MLB PA, park-applied)+0BATRUN so far: -0.6 runs (287 MLB PA)RUN projected ROS: +0.0 runs (0 MLB PA, park-applied)-1RUNFLD so far: -1.4 runs (287 MLB PA)FLD projected ROS: +0.0 runs (0 MLB PA, park-applied)-1FLDPOS so far: -3.1 runs (287 MLB PA)POS projected ROS: +-0.0 runs (0 MLB PA, park-applied)-3POSREP so far: +6.2 runs (287 MLB PA)REP projected ROS: +0.0 runs (0 MLB PA, park-applied)+6REP2026 MLB WAR (so far + projected ROS): +0.12so far: +0.1 WAR+0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.00.60.126272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit post-control+$1M ctrl surplus
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 55
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT40
Whiff%
3412.7%
xAVG
200.227
POWER55
Barrel%
7812.3
Avg EV
6590.2
Bat Spd
8975.5
EYE50
Chase%
9023.1%
SPEED60
Sprint
7928.6
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 754 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
118
636
wRC+
41
125
▶▶R
wOBA
229
353
▶▶R
ISO
094
215
▶▶R
BABIP
219
327
▶▶R
K%
29.7%
30.5%
BB%
7.6%
6.6%
L
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Arb-1
MLB Debut   2021
Service   3.616 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2028
First FA Year   2029
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026ROSExt$0.2M+0.0$0.0M-$0.1M
2027Arb-2$2M+0.6$2M+$0.3M
2028Arb-3$2M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $2M $3M +$0.2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201621 AGreat Lakes Loons 231200 491142 15479 44 245326370696 125301 206 306 94 -2 -1 +5 0.2
201621 ROKOgden Raptors 4440 20322 331 00 5005458251.370 325514 77 587 283 +10 +0 +1 1.1
201722 A+Rancho Cucamonga Quakes 541478 141211114 4312419 91 295376473849 178372 238 377 141 +26 +1 +12 4.0
201823 AAChattanooga Lookouts 551484 13319820 3613724 40 275355471826 196338 257 362 131 +20 +1 +12 3.4
201823 INTLSalt River Rafters 1814 3010 340 10 214353357710 143273 2217 307 94 -0 +0 +0 0.0
201924 AAARochester Red Wings 138126 38607 7425 40 302362516878 214403 305 387 148 +8 +1 +3 1.2
201924 ROKGCL Twins 2019 7001 020 00 368368526895 158353 100 376 140 +1 +0 +0 0.1
201924 INTLSalt River Rafters 9382 20513 4215 00 244319439758 195283 234 330 110 +1 +0 +2 0.3
202126 MLBLos Angeles Dodgers 7266 12102 2254 00 182250288538 106256 353 249 55 -4 +0 -1 -4 +2 -0.7
202126 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers 318272 8014219 277418 83 294394570964 276339 238 420 170 +27 +0 +7 3.5
202227 MLBTampa Bay Rays 7261 12201 7243 00 197310279589 82297 3310 276 73 -2 +0 +0 -4 +2 -0.4
202227 AAADurham Bulls 268227 688114 277312 72 300402529931 229383 2710 408 162 +20 +1 +6 2.7
202328 MLBTampa Bay Rays 406357 8923319 2812818 143 249335490825 241330 327 361 130 +15 +2 -2 -4 +9 1.9
202429 MLBSeattle Mariners 455404 9819222 2713520 112 243322463784 220305 306 344 119 +10 +1 -7 -5 +10 1.0
202530 MLBSeattle Mariners 219183 37804 196413 21 202321311632 109284 299 292 84 -4 +0 -3 -3 +5 -0.5
202530 AAATacoma Rainiers 3835 11103 2121 00 314368600968 286400 325 421 171 +3 +0 +1 0.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career 12241071 24853548 8337658 276 232321425746 193306 317 331 110 +15 +3 -12 -20 +27 1.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201621 A MLEGreat Lakes Loons 231205 45942 10649 44 220286332617 112281 284 262 63 -10 -1 +5 -0.6
201621 ROK MLEOgden Raptors 4441 16212 241 00 3904326341.066 244402 95 436 181 +4 +0 +1 0.5
201722 A+ MLERancho Cucamonga Quakes 541494 11716711 2716819 91 237302364666 128327 315 287 80 -13 +1 +12 0.0
201823 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts 551497 11417815 2317424 40 229296386682 157303 324 294 85 -10 +1 +12 0.3
201924 AAA MLERochester Red Wings 138129 31405 4515 40 240290388677 147350 373 293 84 -3 +1 +3 0.1
201924 ROK MLEGCL Twins 2019 6001 030 00 316316474789 158286 150 312 97 -0 +0 +0 0.0
202126 MLB MLELos Angeles Dodgers 7266 12102 2254 00 182250288538 106256 353 236 46 -5 +0 -1 -4 +2 -0.8
202126 AAA MLEOklahoma City Dodgers 318281 7012213 188918 83 249334445779 196316 286 337 114 +5 +0 +7 1.3
202227 MLB MLETampa Bay Rays 7261 12201 7243 00 197310279589 82297 3310 272 71 -3 +0 +0 -4 +2 -0.4
202227 AAA MLEDurham Bulls 268236 59619 188812 72 250335398733 148347 337 320 103 +1 +1 +6 0.7
202328 MLB MLETampa Bay Rays 406357 8923320 2812818 143 249335499834 249330 327 358 129 +14 +2 -2 -4 +9 1.8
202429 MLB MLESeattle Mariners 455404 9919223 2713520 112 245324473796 228305 306 345 120 +11 +1 -7 -5 +10 1.1
202530 MLB MLESeattle Mariners 219183 37804 196413 21 202321311632 109284 299 292 83 -4 +0 -3 -3 +5 -0.5
202530 AAA MLETacoma Rainiers 3836 9102 1151 00 250289444734 194333 393 289 82 -1 +0 +1 -0.0
201621 A MLE2 teams 275246 591153 126910 44 240302362664 122313 254 290 82
201621 A RAW2 teams 275240 691464 185010 44 287362446808 158340 187 351 82
201722 A+ MLERancho Cucamonga Quakes 541494 11716711 2716819 91 237302364666 128335 315 287 80
201722 A+ RAWRancho Cucamonga Quakes 541478 141211114 4312419 91 295376473849 178372 238 377 80
201823 AA MLE2 teams 569514 11817816 2318024 50 230294387681 158313 324 294 85
201823 AA RAW2 teams 569498 13619920 3914124 50 273355468823 195336 257 360 85
201924 AAA MLE3 teams 251232 58709 68510 40 250298397695 147348 342 295 86
201924 AAA RAW3 teams 251227 6511111 116510 40 286347489836 203351 264 365 86
202126 AAA MLE2 teams 390347 8213215 2011422 83 236319415734 179306 295 318 102
202126 AAA RAW2 teams 390338 9215221 299922 83 272368515882 243324 257 388 102
202227 AAA MLE2 teams 340297 708110 2511215 72 236326370697 135339 337 310 96
202227 AAA RAW2 teams 340288 8010115 349715 72 278383476858 198365 2910 380 96
202328 MLB MLETampa Bay Rays 406357 8923320 2812818 143 249335499834 249327 327 358 129 +14 +2 -2 -4 +9 1.8
202328 MLB RAWTampa Bay Rays 406357 8923319 2812818 143 249335490825 241330 327 361 129 +14 +2 -2 -4 +9 1.8
202429 MLB MLESeattle Mariners 455404 9919223 2713520 112 245324473796 228306 306 345 120 +11 +1 -7 -5 +10 1.1
202429 MLB RAWSeattle Mariners 455404 9819222 2713520 112 243322463784 220305 306 344 120 +11 +1 -7 -5 +10 1.1
202530 MLB MLE2 teams 257219 46906 207914 21 210316333650 123296 318 291 83 -5 +0 -3 -3 +6 -0.5
202530 MLB RAW2 teams 257218 48907 217614 21 220328358686 138301 308 311 83 -5 +0 -3 -3 +6 -0.5
201621 A MLE2 teams 275251 591153 126910 44 235302355657 120300 254 290 82
201722 A+ MLERancho Cucamonga Quakes 541490 11716711 2716819 91 239302367669 129327 315 287 80
201823 AA MLE2 teams 569517 11817816 2318024 50 228294385679 157303 324 294 85
201924 AAA MLE3 teams 251233 58709 68510 40 249298395693 146342 342 295 86
202126 AAA MLE2 teams 390345 8213215 2011422 83 238319417736 180305 295 318 102
202227 AAA MLE2 teams 340297 708110 2511215 72 236326370697 135336 337 310 96
202328 MLB MLETampa Bay Rays 406357 8923320 2812818 143 249335499834 249330 327 358 129
202429 MLB MLESeattle Mariners 455405 9919223 2713520 112 244324472795 227305 306 345 120
202530 MLB MLE2 teams 257221 46906 207914 21 208316330647 122292 318 291 83
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
202328 MLB MLETampa Bay Rays 406357 8923320 2812818 143 249335499834 249330 327 358 129
202429 MLB MLESeattle Mariners 455405 9919223 2713520 112 244324472795 227305 306 345 120
202530 MLB MLE2 teams 257221 46906 207914 21 208316330647 122292 318 291 83
YTD31 MLB MLESEA 287262 599115 15937 12 225285439724 214284 325 315 99 -0 -1 -1 -3 +6 0.1
▸ 2026 season
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
SO FAR31 MLB RAWSEA 287262 599115 15937 12 225285439724 214284 325 316 99 -0 -1 -1 -3 +6 0.1
YTD31 MLB RAWSEA 287262 599115 15937 12 225285439724 214284 325 316 100 +0 -1 -1 -3 +6 0.1
ROS31 MLB MLESEA 100% 00 0000 000 00 310 341 117 -0 -0
ROS31 MLB CTXSEA 100% 00 0000 000 00 +0 -0
FULL31 MLB A+CSEA 287262 599115 15937 12 225285439724 214284 325 316 99 -0 -1 -1 -3 +6 0.1
TOT31 MLB MLESEA 287262 599115 15937 12 225285439724 214284 325 315 99 -0 -1 -1 -3 +6 0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202732 MLB MLESEA 100% 341306 7114116 2110711 82 232305441746 209297 316 331 110 +4 +1 -3 -4 +7 0.6
202833 MLB MLESEA 100% 311279 6312114 199910 62 226299427725 201290 326 323 104 +2 +0 -4 -3 +7 0.1
202934 MLB MLESEA 100% 268241 529112 16879 31 216289411700 195281 326 312 97 -1 +0 -5 -3 +6 -0.3
202732 MLB CTXSEA 100% 341306 7114116 2110711 82 232305441746 209294 316 302 110 +4 +1 -3 -4 +7 0.6
202833 MLB CTXSEA 100% 311279 6312114 199910 62 226299427725 201287 326 294 104 +2 +0 -4 -3 +7 0.1
202934 MLB CTXSEA 100% 268241 529112 16879 31 216289411700 195278 326 284 97 -1 +0 -5 -3 +6 -0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career A+C 21441897 43488890 13966988 4411 229311426737 197299 316 315 98 +20 +4 -24 -30 +46 1.7
/ 162G A+C 650575 13127227 4220327 133 228311423733 195299 316 315 98 +6 +1 -7 -9 +14 0.5
Career MLE 44043936 92415831155 2441363182 8121 235309409718 174314 316 313 98 +20 +4 -24 -30 +46 1.7
/ 162G MLE 650581 13723523 3620127 123 236311411722 176316 316 313 98 +6 +1 -7 -9 +14 0.5