Luke Raley — OGILVIE

Luke RaleyRF Seattle Mariners

Age 31 L/R 6'3" / 235 lbs MLB HR -5% Svc 3.616 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION259 act + 172 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 36102vR 128

AVG/OBP/SLG.234 / .311 / .449

PA172

HR8

SB5

K%31

BB%6

BABIP299

ISO215

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT40

Whiff%

3113.1%

xwOBA

640.325

POWER55

Barrel%

7812.3

Avg EV

6490.1

Bat Spd

8975.5

EYE50

Chase%

9023.8%

SPEED60

Sprint

7928.6

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 754 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

118

636

—

wRC+

128

▶▶R

wOBA

229

353

▶▶R

ISO

094

215

▶▶R

BABIP

219

327

▶▶R

29.7%

30.5%

—

BB%

7.6%

6.6%

◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2021

Service 3.616 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.9M
2027	Arb-2	$3M	+1.0	$7M	+$5M
2028	Arb-3	$7M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$11M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	21	A	2 teams	—	275	246	62	12	6	3	12	69	10	4	4	252	313	386	700	134	330	25	4	297	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A	2 teams	—	275	240	69	14	6	4	18	50	10	4	4	287	362	446	808	158	340	18	7	351	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	541	497	113	15	6	10	24	170	19	9	1	227	289	342	631	115	324	31	4	276	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	541	478	141	21	11	14	43	124	19	9	1	295	376	473	849	178	372	23	8	377	146	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA	2 teams	—	569	515	112	17	9	18	22	198	24	5	0	217	282	390	672	173	306	35	4	288	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA	2 teams	—	569	498	136	19	9	20	39	141	24	5	0	273	355	468	823	195	336	25	7	360	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA	3 teams	—	251	233	60	6	0	11	5	85	10	4	0	258	302	425	727	167	350	34	2	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA	3 teams	—	251	227	65	11	1	11	11	65	10	4	0	286	347	489	836	203	351	26	4	365	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA	2 teams	—	390	347	87	14	2	17	20	115	22	8	3	251	332	450	781	199	324	29	5	339	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA	2 teams	—	390	338	92	15	2	21	29	99	22	8	3	272	368	515	882	243	324	25	7	388	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA	2 teams	—	340	298	73	8	1	12	24	112	15	7	2	245	332	399	732	154	347	33	7	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA	2 teams	—	340	288	80	10	1	15	34	97	15	7	2	278	383	476	858	198	365	29	10	380	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	406	357	89	24	3	20	28	128	18	14	3	249	335	501	836	252	327	32	7	360	134	+16	+2	-2	-4	+12	2.2
2023	28	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	406	357	89	23	3	19	28	128	18	14	3	249	335	490	825	241	330	32	7	361	134	+16	+2	-2	-4	+12	2.2
2024	29	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	455	404	101	20	2	23	27	135	20	11	2	250	328	480	808	230	315	30	6	349	125	+13	+1	-7	-5	+13	1.6
2024	29	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	455	404	98	19	2	22	27	135	20	11	2	243	322	463	784	220	305	30	6	344	122	+11	+1	-7	-5	+13	1.4
2025	30	MLB	2 teams	—	257	219	46	9	0	6	20	78	14	2	1	210	316	333	650	123	294	30	8	292	82	-5	+0	-3	-3	+7	-0.4
2025	30	MLB	2 teams	—	257	218	48	9	0	7	21	76	14	2	1	220	328	358	686	138	301	30	8	311	96	-1	+0	-3	-3	+7	0.1
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	31	MLB	SEA	—	259	236	54	9	1	14	13	84	7	1	1	229	289	453	742	225	288	32	5	317	101	+0	-0	-1	-3	+7	0.3
YTD	31	MLB	SEA	—	259	236	54	9	1	14	13	84	7	1	1	229	289	453	742	225	288	32	5	323	105	+2	-0	-1	-3	+7	0.5
ROS	31	MLB	SEA	100%	172	153	36	7	1	8	11	53	6	5	1	234	311	449	760	215	304	31	6	340	118	+4	+1	+0	-2	+5	0.8
ROS	31	MLB	SEA	100%	173	154	36	7	1	8	11	53	6	5	1	234	310	448	758	214	300	31	6	309	95	-1	+1	+0	-2	+5	0.3
FULL	31	MLB	SEA	—	432	390	90	16	2	22	24	137	13	6	2	231	297	451	749	221	292	32	6	314	98	-1	+0	-1	-5	+12	0.6
TOT	31	MLB	SEA	—	431	389	90	16	2	22	24	137	13	6	2	231	298	452	749	221	292	32	6	326	108	+4	+0	-1	-5	+12	1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	32	MLB	SEA	92%	341	305	71	14	1	16	21	107	12	8	2	233	308	443	750	210	301	31	6	335	114	+6	+1	-3	-4	+10	1.0
2028	33	MLB	SEA	92%	311	278	63	12	1	14	19	99	11	6	1	227	302	428	730	201	294	32	6	326	108	+3	+1	-4	-3	+9	0.6
2027	32	MLB	SEA	92%	314	281	66	13	1	15	19	98	11	8	2	235	309	448	757	214	298	31	6	304	91	-3	+1	-3	-3	+9	0.1
2028	33	MLB	SEA	92%	286	257	58	11	1	13	17	91	10	5	1	226	299	428	727	202	291	32	6	296	85	-5	+1	-3	-3	+8	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1997	1763	408	84	8	84	130	618	85	45	10	231	315	431	746	200	303	31	7	320	103	+7	+5	-17	-28	+57	2.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	133	27	3	27	42	201	28	15	3	232	315	430	746	199	304	31	6	320	103	+2	+2	-6	-9	+18	0.8
Career	—			—	4308	3852	913	158	32	158	233	1349	181	83	20	237	311	418	729	181	318	31	5	317	101	+5	+9	-18	-46	+122	7.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	138	24	5	24	35	204	27	13	3	238	311	420	731	182	318	31	5	317	101	+1	+1	-3	-7	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	21	A	Great Lakes Loons	—	231	200	49	11	4	2	15	47	9	4	4	245	326	370	696	125	301	20	6	306	93	-2	-1	—	—	+7	0.4
2016	21	ROK	Ogden Raptors	—	44	40	20	3	2	2	3	3	1	0	0	500	545	825	1.370	325	514	7	7	587	307	+10	+0	—	—	+1	1.2
2017	22	A+	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	541	478	141	21	11	14	43	124	19	9	1	295	376	473	849	178	372	23	8	377	146	+28	+1	—	—	+15	4.6
2018	23	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	551	484	133	19	8	20	36	137	24	4	0	275	355	471	826	196	338	25	7	362	135	+22	+1	—	—	+16	3.9
2018	23	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	18	14	3	0	1	0	3	4	0	1	0	214	353	357	710	143	273	22	17	307	93	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2019	24	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	138	126	38	6	0	7	7	42	5	4	0	302	362	516	878	214	403	30	5	387	155	+9	+1	—	—	+4	1.3
2019	24	ROK	GCL Twins	—	20	19	7	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	368	368	526	895	158	353	10	0	376	146	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2019	24	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	93	82	20	5	1	3	4	21	5	0	0	244	319	439	758	195	283	23	4	330	111	+1	+0	—	—	+3	0.4
2021	26	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	72	66	12	1	0	2	2	25	4	0	0	182	250	288	538	106	256	35	3	249	49	-4	+0	-1	-4	+2	-0.7
2021	26	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	318	272	80	14	2	19	27	74	18	8	3	294	394	570	964	276	339	23	8	420	179	+29	+0	—	—	+9	3.9
2022	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	72	61	12	2	0	1	7	24	3	0	0	197	310	279	589	82	297	33	10	276	70	-2	+0	+0	-4	+2	-0.4
2022	27	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	268	227	68	8	1	14	27	73	12	7	2	300	402	529	931	229	383	27	10	408	171	+21	+1	—	—	+8	3.0
2023	28	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	406	357	89	23	3	19	28	128	18	14	3	249	335	490	825	241	330	32	7	361	134	+16	+2	-2	-4	+12	2.2
2024	29	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	455	404	98	19	2	22	27	135	20	11	2	243	322	463	784	220	305	30	6	344	122	+11	+1	-7	-5	+13	1.4
2025	30	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	219	183	37	8	0	4	19	64	13	2	1	202	321	311	632	109	284	29	9	292	82	-4	+0	-3	-3	+6	-0.4
2025	30	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	38	35	11	1	0	3	2	12	1	0	0	314	368	600	968	286	400	32	5	421	180	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1224	1071	248	53	5	48	83	376	58	27	6	232	321	425	746	193	306	31	7	331	111	+16	+3	-12	-20	+35	2.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Eric Hinskelast yr '13 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,310 PA	12	4,310	137	61	249	332	430	-34	-33	13.0	12.9
	/162	664	21	9	249	332	430	-5.2	-5.1	2.0	pk7: 13
#2David Delluccilast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,658 PA	10	2,658	94	36	249	336	439	-26	-28	7.6	7.9
	/162	664	23	9	249	336	439	-6.5	-7.0	1.9	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	2,433	107	57	232	311	437	-26	-27	7.5	7.7
	/162	664	29	16	232	311	437	-7.1	-7.4	2.0	pk7: 8
#3Scott Hairstonlast yr '14 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,624 PA	9	2,624	106	36	242	297	444	-18	-16	6.0	6.6
	/162	664	27	9	242	297	444	-4.5	-4.1	1.5	pk7: 7
#4Ricky Ledeelast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,897 PA	7	1,897	52	21	239	323	404	-8	-6	5.0	5.0
	/162	664	18	7	239	323	404	-2.9	-2.1	1.7	pk7: 5
#5Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#6Wily Mo Peñalast yr '11 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,827 PA	7	1,827	83	12	250	304	445	-12	-32	2.5	2.5
	/162	664	30	4	250	304	445	-4.3	-11.6	0.9	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Raley (OGILVIE)	31	40	55	60	50	231/298/452	221	292	22	6	32%	6%	108	+1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Seth Brown 2023 · MLB	31	43→49	62→65	51→50	48	236/305/468	232	275	30	11	27%	9%	117	+2.9	243/303/439	196	296	26	8	27%	8%	108	+2.3	244/302/433	189	296	26	5	27%	7%	103	+1.2
●Adolis García 2023 · MLB	30	46→48	57→65	53→50	41	244/294/445	201	305	25	19	29%	6%	106	+2.2	234/298/437	203	284	27	13	27%	8%	106	+2.2	226/292/422	196	270	27	11	27%	8%	97	+1.6
✕Pedro Álvarez 2018 · MLB	31	42→46	60	48→45	44	234/288/442	208	274	29	3	27%	7%	103	+1.9	233/287/417	184	286	26	5	28%	7%	95	+1.4	224/285/402	178	267	29	0	28%	8%	89	+0.5
✕Colby Rasmus 2018 · MLB	31	42→52	58→60	48→50	46	228/296/426	198	290	27	6	31%	9%	102	+1.9	227/289/393	166	304	20	8	31%	8%	90	+1.0	168/227/276	108	239	12	0	34%	6%	32	-0.5
✕Mitch Jones 2009 · AAA	31	39→40	59→65	50→45	41	217/281/428	211	280	28	8	33%	7%	97	+1.5	215/263/417	202	268	26	9	30%	5%	86	+0.8	201/248/402	200	244	27	8	30%	5%	74	-0.1
✕Mikie Mahtook 2021 · MLB	31	41→51	58→60	48→50	44	225/290/421	196	272	27	13	28%	7%	98	+1.6	214/266/379	165	269	22	11	29%	5%	77	+0.1	191/241/350	159	231	23	10	29%	5%	56	-0.9
✕Dallas McPherson 2011 · MLB	31	42→44	61→65	48→50	39	229/286/449	220	311	30	7	36%	7%	104	+2.0	228/272/391	163	323	21	5	35%	6%	82	+0.5	220/265/370	150	313	20	3	35%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Matt Carson 2012 · MLB	31	46→50	57→60	52→50	41	244/291/449	204	288	25	15	25%	5%	106	+2.2	235/282/380	145	303	16	13	27%	5%	83	+0.6	227/275/350	123	299	13	13	28%	5%	70	-0.3
✕Carlos González 2016 · MLB	30	42→52	58→60	52→55	48	231/291/430	199	258	27	8	23%	8%	101	+1.8	239/302/400	161	283	18	4	22%	8%	97	+1.5	239/304/385	147	287	15	4	22%	8%	88	+0.8
✕Justin Maxwell 2013 · MLB	29	43→44	58→60	52→60	45	225/302/428	203	308	26	19	35%	9%	105	+2.1	220/285/378	158	318	18	11	34%	7%	85	+0.7	209/274/345	136	307	15	8	35%	7%	69	-0.2
✕Brian O'Grady 2021 · MLB	29	41→37	57→60	52→50	39	222/276/420	198	292	26	16	33%	6%	92	+1.2	211/277/371	160	292	18	14	33%	8%	79	+0.3	187/262/347	160	256	17	13	33%	8%	66	-0.4
✕Patrick Wisdom 2023 · MLB	31	39→45	63→70	45→50	45	218/302/450	232	292	32	9	36%	9%	111	+2.5	216/296/455	239	283	33	10	35%	9%	110	+2.4	202/282/485	283	230	42	9	34%	9%	109	+1.0
✕Brad Miller 2022 · MLB	32	44→54	61→60	50	53	236/326/457	221	288	29	6	28%	11%	122	+3.3	221/300/374	153	286	20	8	28%	10%	90	+1.0	198/275/308	110	258	16	6	29%	9%	61	-0.3
✕Brian Goodwin 2021 · MLB	30	48→53	55→60	51→50	47	244/315/438	194	319	22	12	30%	9%	113	+2.6	228/306/381	153	292	17	9	26%	10%	94	+1.3	209/294/339	131	263	16	4	26%	11%	76	+0.1
●Trayce Thompson 2022 · MLB	31	37→47	58→65	49→50	41	205/277/402	197	282	27	9	37%	8%	89	+0.9	221/299/433	212	309	28	9	36%	9%	105	+2.1	209/289/418	209	286	28	9	36%	9%	96	+0.8
●Curtis Granderson 2013 · MLB	32	42→52	64→65	52→50	54	238/328/479	242	272	32	14	26%	11%	129	+3.7	238/331/432	194	287	24	11	25%	12%	118	+3.0	238/344/461	223	268	27	7	22%	13%	125	+3.6
●Jay Bruce 2017 · MLB	30	43→53	59→65	48→50	49	235/299/451	216	261	27	8	23%	8%	109	+2.4	241/309/469	228	267	30	4	22%	9%	118	+3.0	234/303/467	233	254	32	2	23%	9%	112	+1.9
✕Tyler Houston 2001 · MLB	30	45	62→60	46→40	44	251/297/478	226	278	32	7	24%	6%	116	+2.8	269/317/444	175	315	22	4	21%	6%	115	+2.7	281/327/436	155	331	18	1	20%	6%	111	+1.0
●Todd Frazier 2017 · MLB	31	43→51	61→60	46→50	49	239/306/457	218	259	31	13	22%	8%	115	+2.7	223/318/420	197	250	26	8	23%	11%	110	+2.4	220/322/405	186	249	25	5	22%	11%	105	+1.8
✕Will Venable 2014 · MLB	31	52→55	55→60	61→60	47	267/321/463	197	314	21	26	22%	7%	121	+3.2	239/300/373	134	299	14	18	24%	7%	89	+0.9	220/285/321	101	282	10	16	24%	7%	65	-0.4