Patrick Wisdom

3B Tacoma Rainiers

Age 35 R/R 6'2" / 220 lbs AAA K +7%HR -5% Svc 3.394 · Ctrl thru 2029

Overview

AAA40-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	31	MLBCHC	302	.205/.290/.500	23	4	120	0.9
2024	32	AAA/INTL2 orgs	71	.327/.471/.745	6	0	182	—	.300/.400/.600
2024	32	MLBCHC	174	.171/.238/.392	8	5	72	-0.7
2026	34	AAASEA	348	.278/.363/.676	35	5	88	—	.196/.256/.452
2026	34	MLBSEA	50	.106/.160/.191	1	0	-11	-0.4
2027PROJ45% MLB	35	MLBSEA	106	.217/.278/.450	6	2	104	0.3
2028PROJ	36	MLBSEA	170	.205/.264/.422	9	1	92	-0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.2 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.394First FA2030

2027Arb-1$0.4M2028Arb-2$0.4M2029Ext$0.9M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2026

Barrel%90

Avg EV90

Bat Spd84

xwOBA52

Speed42

CompsAdam Duvall (age 35) · Mike Hessman (age 34) · Kevin Pillar (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 106104vR 96

AVG/OBP/SLG.217 / .278 / .450

PA106

HR6

K%30

BB%7

BABIP251

ISO227

MLB%45%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 30 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2026

CONTACT30

xAVG

100.197

POWER60

Barrel%

9018.6

Avg EV

9092.1

Bat Spd

8474.9

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED55

Sprint

4227.1

Platoon Splits2024 · 174 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

103

—

wRC+

◀L

wOBA

277

272

—

ISO

194

262

▶▶R

BABIP

250

150

◀◀L

36.9%

29.6%

▶▶R

BB%

4.9%

7.0%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2018

Service 3.394 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2013	21	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	102	92	23	4	0	2	9	23	0	1	0	250	317	359	676	109	313	23	9	304	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	423	372	86	20	4	13	42	114	3	4	1	231	314	411	725	180	294	27	10	319	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	498	452	97	19	4	14	39	149	2	5	1	215	280	367	647	153	282	30	8	287	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	456	414	98	20	4	14	35	107	0	11	3	237	296	406	701	169	283	23	8	307	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	97	93	22	6	1	4	4	17	0	3	1	237	268	452	720	215	250	18	4	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	295	262	61	20	1	5	26	73	2	5	1	233	306	374	680	141	298	25	9	302	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	506	456	111	25	1	31	38	149	8	2	2	243	313	507	819	263	286	29	8	355	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	58	50	13	1	0	4	6	19	2	2	1	260	362	520	882	260	333	33	10	388	157	+4	+0	-2	+2	+1	0.5
2018	26	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	421	371	107	24	1	15	43	112	3	11	2	288	367	480	847	191	371	27	10	372	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	28	26	4	1	0	0	1	15	0	0	0	154	185	192	377	38	364	54	4	168	-4	-3	+0	+1	-9	+1	-1.1
2019	27	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	453	396	95	15	0	31	53	125	2	8	2	240	333	513	845	273	266	28	12	368	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	375	338	78	13	0	28	32	153	4	4	1	231	304	518	822	287	318	41	9	357	129	+13	+0	+3	+1	+8	2.7
2021	29	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	34	25	4	1	0	3	6	12	2	1	0	160	364	560	924	400	91	35	18	388	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	534	469	97	28	0	25	53	183	9	8	4	207	299	426	726	220	274	34	10	321	104	+2	+0	-11	+2	+12	0.5
2023	31	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	302	268	55	8	1	23	30	111	2	4	2	205	290	500	790	295	237	37	10	341	120	+7	+0	-6	+1	+7	0.9
2024	32	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	174	158	27	7	2	8	10	59	4	5	0	171	238	392	631	222	207	34	6	275	72	-6	+1	-2	-4	+4	-0.7
2024	32	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	36	27	11	4	0	3	8	12	0	0	0	407	543	889	1.432	481	615	33	22	572	184	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	35	28	7	1	0	3	7	9	0	0	0	250	400	607	1.007	357	250	26	20	432	179	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	50	47	5	1	0	1	3	21	0	0	0	106	160	191	351	85	160	42	6	163	-11	-7	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.4
2026	34	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	348	306	85	15	1	35	38	93	3	5	2	278	363	676	1.040	399	279	27	11	440	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1521	1356	279	59	3	89	135	561	21	23	8	206	288	451	738	245	268	37	9	323	105	+9	+1	-17	-5	+33	2.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2013	21	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	102	94	20	4	0	2	7	34	0	1	0	213	267	319	586	106	299	33	7	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	423	387	66	12	3	11	27	158	3	4	1	171	230	302	533	132	245	37	6	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	498	464	81	15	4	9	27	187	2	5	1	175	223	282	505	108	258	38	5	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	456	425	84	16	4	10	25	134	0	11	3	198	242	325	567	127	251	29	5	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	295	270	51	16	1	4	19	95	2	5	1	189	247	300	547	111	266	32	6	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	506	467	84	17	1	23	27	190	8	2	2	180	237	368	605	188	233	38	5	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	58	50	13	1	0	4	6	19	2	2	1	260	362	520	882	260	333	33	10	400	157	+4	+0	-2	+2	+1	0.5
2018	26	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	421	383	85	18	1	12	31	148	3	11	2	222	285	368	654	146	313	35	7	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	28	26	4	1	0	0	1	15	0	0	0	154	185	192	377	38	364	54	4	162	-4	-3	+0	+1	-9	+1	-1.1
2019	27	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	453	413	73	11	0	23	36	159	2	8	2	177	246	370	617	194	214	35	8	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	375	340	79	13	0	29	31	153	4	4	1	232	304	526	830	294	318	41	8	359	129	+13	+0	+3	+1	+8	2.7
2021	29	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	34	27	3	1	0	2	4	14	2	1	0	111	273	370	643	259	70	41	12	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	534	470	97	27	0	26	52	183	9	8	4	206	298	430	727	223	274	34	10	321	104	+2	+0	-11	+2	+12	0.5
2023	31	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	302	268	56	8	1	24	30	111	2	4	2	209	293	515	808	306	237	37	10	345	120	+7	+0	-6	+1	+7	0.9
2024	32	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	174	158	27	7	2	8	10	59	4	5	0	171	238	392	631	222	207	34	6	274	72	-6	+1	-2	-4	+4	-0.7
2024	32	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	36	30	9	3	0	2	5	14	0	0	0	300	400	600	1.000	300	481	39	14	440	184	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	50	48	5	1	0	1	2	21	0	0	0	104	140	188	328	83	160	42	4	151	-11	-7	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.4
2026	34	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	348	321	63	11	1	23	23	112	3	5	2	196	256	452	708	255	211	32	7	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	525	481	86	16	3	13	34	192	3	5	1	179	237	306	543	127	262	37	6	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	525	464	109	24	4	15	51	137	3	5	1	235	315	401	716	166	298	26	10	316	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	498	464	81	15	4	9	27	187	2	5	1	175	223	282	505	108	264	38	5	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	—	498	452	97	19	4	14	39	149	2	5	1	215	280	367	647	153	282	30	8	287	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	553	517	100	19	4	12	30	162	0	14	4	193	238	315	553	122	254	29	5	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	553	507	120	26	5	18	39	124	0	14	4	237	291	414	705	178	276	22	7	308	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	295	270	51	16	1	4	19	95	2	5	1	189	247	300	547	111	269	32	6	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	—	295	262	61	20	1	5	26	73	2	5	1	233	306	374	680	141	298	25	9	302	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	506	467	84	17	1	23	27	190	8	2	2	180	237	368	605	188	236	38	5	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	—	506	456	111	25	1	31	38	149	8	2	2	243	313	507	819	263	286	29	8	355	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	479	433	98	19	1	16	37	167	5	13	3	226	295	386	680	159	323	35	8	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	479	421	120	25	1	19	49	131	5	13	3	285	366	485	851	200	367	27	10	374	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	481	439	77	12	0	23	37	174	2	8	2	175	243	360	603	185	222	36	8	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	481	422	99	16	0	31	54	140	2	8	2	235	324	493	817	258	270	29	11	356	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	409	367	82	14	0	31	35	167	6	5	1	223	301	515	816	292	300	41	9	353	125	+12	+1	+3	+1	+9	2.7
2021	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	409	363	82	14	0	31	38	165	6	5	1	226	309	521	829	295	304	40	9	359	125	+12	+1	+3	+1	+9	2.7
2022	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	534	470	97	27	0	26	52	183	9	8	4	206	298	430	727	223	270	34	10	321	104	+2	+0	-11	+2	+12	0.5
2022	30	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	534	469	97	28	0	25	53	183	9	8	4	207	299	426	726	220	274	34	10	321	104	+2	+0	-11	+2	+12	0.5
2023	31	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	302	268	56	8	1	24	30	111	2	4	2	209	293	515	808	306	239	37	10	345	120	+7	+0	-6	+1	+7	0.9
2023	31	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	302	268	55	8	1	23	30	111	2	4	2	205	290	500	790	295	237	37	10	341	120	+7	+0	-6	+1	+7	0.9
2024	32	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	245	220	42	12	2	12	18	86	4	5	0	191	264	427	692	236	242	35	7	303	91	-3	+1	-2	-4	+5	-0.3
2024	32	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	245	213	45	12	2	14	25	80	4	5	0	211	306	484	789	272	256	33	10	341	91	-3	+1	-2	-4	+5	-0.3
2026	34	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	398	369	68	12	1	24	25	133	3	5	2	184	242	417	659	233	207	33	6	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	398	353	90	16	1	36	41	114	3	5	2	255	338	612	949	357	265	29	10	405	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	525	483	86	16	3	13	34	192	3	5	1	178	237	304	542	126	255	37	6	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	498	466	81	15	4	9	27	187	2	5	1	174	223	281	504	107	258	38	5	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	553	518	100	19	4	12	30	162	0	14	4	193	238	315	552	122	251	29	5	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	295	272	51	16	1	4	19	95	2	5	1	188	247	298	545	110	266	32	6	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	506	466	84	17	1	23	27	190	8	2	2	180	237	369	606	189	233	38	5	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	479	434	98	19	1	16	37	167	5	13	3	226	295	385	680	159	315	35	8	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	481	439	77	12	0	23	37	174	2	8	2	175	243	360	603	185	223	36	8	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	409	365	82	14	0	31	35	167	6	5	1	225	301	518	819	293	298	41	9	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	534	468	97	27	0	26	52	183	9	8	4	207	298	432	729	224	274	34	10	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	302	267	56	8	1	24	30	111	2	4	2	210	293	517	810	307	237	37	10	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	245	221	42	12	2	12	18	86	4	5	0	190	264	425	690	235	254	35	7	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	398	367	68	12	1	24	25	133	3	5	2	185	242	420	661	234	205	33	6	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	32	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	245	221	42	12	2	12	18	86	4	5	0	190	264	425	690	235	254	35	7	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	398	367	68	12	1	24	25	133	3	5	2	185	242	420	661	234	205	33	6	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	35	MLB MLE	SEA	45%	348	318	71	13	2	20	24	105	3	6	1	220	281	459	740	239	254	30	7	321	104	+1	+1	-3	+1	+8	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	35	MLB CTX	SEA	45%	106	97	21	4	0	6	7	32	1	2	0	217	278	450	728	233	251	30	7	317	104	+0	+0	-1	+0	+2	0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	SEA	100%	170	156	33	6	1	9	11	53	1	1	0	207	267	430	697	223	242	31	6	304	92	-2	+0	-8	+1	+4	-0.5
2028	36	MLB CTX	SEA	100%	170	156	32	5	1	9	11	53	1	1	0	205	264	422	686	218	239	31	6	300	92	-2	+0	-8	+1	+4	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1691	1512	311	64	4	98	146	614	22	24	8	206	285	448	733	242	265	36	9	321	75	+7	+2	-25	-5	+37	1.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	121	25	2	38	56	236	8	9	3	208	286	454	741	246	269	36	9	321	75	+3	+1	-9	-2	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	5631	5137	1003	202	20	240	398	1971	49	84	24	195	260	383	642	187	258	35	7	280	75	+8	+2	-26	-4	+42	2.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	115	23	2	28	46	228	6	10	3	194	259	381	640	187	255	35	7	280	75	+3	+1	-9	-1	+14	0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 348 PAwOBA .427 → .299 (−128)K% 26.7% → 32.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.72%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	32.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.34%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.940	6.71%
HBP% /PA	0.86%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.76%
Singles /BIP	15.96%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.950	×0.940	13.26%
Doubles /BIP	7.04%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.950	×0.940	5.22%
Triples /BIP	0.47%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.950	×0.940	0.41%
Home runs /BIP	16.43%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.940	10.81%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .427 → .299; ISO .399 → .265; BABIP .279 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 36 PAwOBA .572 → .440 (−133)K% 33.3% → 40.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.33%	÷0.998	×1.200	—	—	40.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	22.22%	÷0.949	×0.690	—	×0.942	15.23%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.67%	÷0.994	×0.930	—	×0.942	23.51%
Doubles /BIP	26.67%	÷0.962	×0.830	—	×0.942	21.68%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×0.942	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	20.00%	÷1.079	×0.700	—	×0.942	12.22%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 99, 2B 92, 3B 100, K 100, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .572 → .440; ISO .481 → .348; BABIP .615 → .481. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAIowa Cubs · 34 PAwOBA .389 → .283 (−106)K% 35.3% → 41.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	35.29%	÷1.032	×1.200	—	—	41.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.65%	÷1.023	×0.690	—	×0.972	11.57%
HBP% /PA	5.88%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	5.37%
Singles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.039	×0.930	—	×0.972	0.00%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷0.963	×0.830	—	×0.972	6.44%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.988	×0.920	—	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	23.08%	÷1.081	×0.700	—	×0.972	14.53%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 108, 2B 93, 3B 98, K 106, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .389 → .283; ISO .400 → .286; BABIP .091 → .070. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAANashville Sounds · 453 PAwOBA .356 → .267 (−89)K% 27.6% → 35.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.59%	÷1.015	×1.290	—	—	35.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.04%	÷0.988	×0.710	—	×0.992	7.87%
HBP% /PA	0.44%	—	×0.980	—	×0.992	0.43%
Singles /BIP	18.08%	÷1.007	×0.900	×0.950	×0.992	15.23%
Doubles /BIP	5.54%	÷0.967	×0.810	×0.950	×0.992	4.37%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.069	×0.810	×0.950	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	11.44%	÷0.998	×0.780	—	×0.992	8.87%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 101, 2B 93, 3B 114, K 103, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .356 → .267; ISO .273 → .201; BABIP .266 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 421 PAwOBA .364 → .284 (−80)K% 26.6% → 35.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.60%	÷0.975	×1.290	—	—	35.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.98%	÷0.960	×0.710	—	×1.003	7.40%
HBP% /PA	0.71%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	0.70%
Singles /BIP	25.87%	÷0.984	×0.900	×0.950	×1.003	22.54%
Doubles /BIP	9.27%	÷0.957	×0.810	×0.950	×1.003	7.47%
Triples /BIP	0.39%	÷0.984	×0.810	×0.950	×1.003	0.30%
Home runs /BIP	5.79%	÷0.909	×0.780	—	×1.003	4.98%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 97, 2B 91, 3B 97, K 95, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .364 → .284; ISO .191 → .148; BABIP .371 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 506 PAwOBA .347 → .261 (−86)K% 29.4% → 37.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.45%	÷1.010	×1.290	—	—	37.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.51%	÷0.997	×0.710	—	×1.018	5.45%
HBP% /PA	1.58%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	1.58%
Singles /BIP	17.59%	÷1.001	×0.900	×0.950	×1.018	15.29%
Doubles /BIP	8.14%	÷1.021	×0.810	×0.950	×1.018	6.25%
Triples /BIP	0.33%	÷1.135	×0.810	×0.950	×1.018	0.22%
Home runs /BIP	10.10%	÷0.980	×0.780	—	×1.018	8.18%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 100, 2B 104, 3B 127, K 102, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .347 → .261; ISO .263 → .192; BABIP .286 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 295 PAwOBA .298 → .245 (−53)K% 24.7% → 32.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.75%	÷0.988	×1.290	—	—	32.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.81%	÷0.983	×0.710	—	×1.033	6.58%
HBP% /PA	0.68%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	0.69%
Singles /BIP	18.52%	÷0.989	×0.900	×0.976	×1.033	16.98%
Doubles /BIP	10.58%	÷0.941	×0.810	×0.976	×1.033	9.18%
Triples /BIP	0.53%	÷0.951	×0.810	×0.976	×1.033	0.45%
Home runs /BIP	2.65%	÷0.931	×0.780	—	×1.033	2.29%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 98, 2B 88, 3B 90, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .298 → .245; ISO .141 → .115; BABIP .298 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AASpringfield Cardinals · 456 PAwOBA .301 → .242 (−60)K% 23.5% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.46%	÷0.978	×1.220	—	—	29.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.68%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.012	5.43%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.870	—	×1.012	0.00%
Singles /BIP	19.54%	÷0.982	×0.920	×0.974	×1.012	18.05%
Doubles /BIP	6.51%	÷1.003	×0.840	×0.974	×1.012	5.38%
Triples /BIP	1.30%	÷1.003	×0.940	×0.974	×1.012	1.20%
Home runs /BIP	4.56%	÷1.140	×0.800	—	×1.012	3.24%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 96, 2B 101, 3B 101, K 96, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.

Result: wOBA .301 → .242; ISO .169 → .126; BABIP .283 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Pedro Álvarezlast yr '18 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,287 PA	5.0	3,287	161	15	235	309	447	+1	-40	10.0	10.2
/162	664	33	3	+0.2	-8.0	2.0	pk7: 10
#2Brad Millerlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,531 PA	5.3	3,531	123	43	236	314	416	+7	-38	8.8	9.4
/162	664	23	8	+1.4	-7.2	1.7	pk7: 10
#3Willie Greene'92-'00 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,183 PA	3.3	2,183	86	17	225*	313*	415*	-4	+5	5.9	6.5
/162	664	26	5	-1.1	+1.5	1.8	pk7: 7
#4Leo Gomez'90-'96 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,238 PA	3.4	2,238	79	4	238*	329*	430*	+5	-20	6.2	6.2
/162	664	23	1	+1.4	-6.1	1.8	pk7: 6
#5Ian Stewartlast yr '14 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,646 PA	2.5	1,646	60	17	230	317	416	+6	+2	6.2	6.2
/162	664	24	7	+2.4	+0.9	2.5	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	2.7	1,769	104	26	209	285	456	+1	-17	6.1	6.2
/162	664	39	10	+0.5	-6.6	2.3	pk7: 6
#6Russ Davis'94-'01 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,176 PA	3.3	2,176	84	16	244*	296*	428*	+6	-9	5.0	5.2
/162	664	26	5	+1.9	-2.8	1.5	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Patrick Wisdom (OGILVIE)	35	30	60	55	55	218/279/455	237	254	14	4	30%	7%	104	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Adam Duvall 2024 · MLB	35	40→45	64→70	49→45	41	229/289/469	239	280	32	6	31%	7%	109	+2.0	217/280/396	179	275	23	5	29%	7%	89	+0.5	181/245/322	141	227	20	0	30%	6%	60	-0.9
✕Mike Hessman 2012 · MLB	34	37→35	54→65	47→45	42	202/270/381	179	260	22	5	32%	7%	82	-0.0	189/243/375	186	238	26	3	33%	6%	71	-0.8	185/246/365	180	222	24	3	30%	7%	68	-0.8
✕Kevin Pillar 2024 · MLB	35	44→54	56→55	49→55	42	237/280/424	186	265	24	10	22%	5%	95	+1.0	232/286/380	148	276	16	18	22%	5%	87	+0.4	228/292/374	147	273	15	23	22%	5%	89	+0.3
✕Justin Upton 2022 · MLB	34	40→50	58→65	43→55	50	220/305/419	198	266	27	6	29%	10%	103	+1.6	218/300/381	163	297	20	8	32%	9%	93	+0.8	141/240/239	99	225	12	0	40%	9%	40	-0.6
✕Scott McClain 2006 · MLB	34	41→42	56→55	45→40	45	224/278/415	190	249	25	4	22%	6%	93	+0.8	208/262/376	168	239	23	5	24%	7%	78	-0.3	203/260/368	166	229	23	4	24%	7%	73	-0.6
●Jorge Cantu 2015 · AAA	33	41→51	61→55	49→40	46	234/293/450	215	251	31	7	22%	7%	107	+1.8	241/296/386	145	277	17	6	19%	6%	92	+0.7	233/290/363	130	274	14	4	20%	6%	85	+0.2
✕Ramon Castro 2010 · MLB	34	45	58→55	46→40	49	244/306/444	200	273	27	4	22%	8%	109	+2.0	247/311/445	198	288	27	6	24%	8%	112	+2.2	252/309/461	209	269	36	4	22%	8%	115	+0.6
✕John Lindsey 2013 · AAA	36	45→51	57→60	43→30	41	241/302/437	196	290	25	2	27%	6%	107	+1.8	224/299/413	189	280	25	3	29%	7%	101	+1.4	204/288/394	190	253	27	0	30%	7%	90	+0.4
✕Dustin Garneau 2022 · MLB	34	36→38	56→50	47→45	44	203/278/395	192	255	24	5	31%	8%	88	+0.5	196/273/342	146	258	17	7	30%	7%	74	-0.5	133/224/239	106	174	13	2	31%	7%	32	-1.2
✕Eduardo Perez 2003 · MLB	33	43	59→60	48→50	51	235/313/449	214	251	28	6	20%	9%	114	+2.3	258/340/457	199	285	25	8	19%	10%	125	+3.2	263/348/468	205	279	27	4	17%	10%	131	+1.4
✕Randy Ruiz 2013 · MLB	35	47→54	55→60	49→40	40	244/293/423	179	314	24	10	30%	6%	100	+1.3	243/284/391	148	315	19	5	28%	5%	88	+0.5	239/277/374	135	308	18	2	28%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Ruben Mateo 2014 · AAA	36	47→50	60	41→45	43	254/309/471	217	272	29	3	20%	5%	118	+2.6	233/295/388	155	267	20	4	21%	5%	93	+0.8	219/285/345	126	253	17	2	21%	4%	77	-0.2
✕Rod Barajas 2012 · MLB	36	43→47	56→60	46→30	43	232/274/418	186	243	26	2	18%	4%	92	+0.7	225/287/386	161	250	21	4	20%	7%	89	+0.5	202/270/342	140	220	20	0	19%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Trayce Thompson 2024 · MLB	33	42→49	57→60	49→50	45	217/303/416	200	313	26	8	37%	10%	102	+1.5	188/254/334	146	272	18	12	36%	8%	65	-1.2	164/225/296	132	232	16	12	36%	7%	44	-1.9
✕Chris Richard 2010 · MLB	36	41→51	54→55	48→50	45	221/288/401	181	263	23	6	26%	7%	93	+0.8	227/289/390	163	277	18	5	25%	7%	91	+0.6	225/285/384	160	273	17	0	24%	7%	86	+0.3
✕Kole Calhoun 2022 · MLB	34	43→53	60	46→50	52	235/317/448	213	262	29	5	24%	10%	115	+2.4	217/282/369	152	272	18	4	26%	7%	83	+0.1	207/270/350	143	261	16	2	27%	7%	74	-0.4
✕Cody Ransom 2012 · MLB	36	40→39	53→55	49→50	43	216/276/392	176	272	21	10	29%	7%	86	+0.3	217/295/406	189	302	23	6	34%	9%	97	+1.1	188/264/357	169	260	22	1	35%	9%	75	-0.2
●Giancarlo Stanton 2024 · MLB	34	36→46	63→80	45	49	216/294/437	222	248	33	2	29%	10%	104	+1.6	236/303/470	234	293	34	3	31%	9%	115	+2.4	240/307/494	254	294	39	0	32%	8%	123	+1.9
✕Olmedo Saenz 2006 · MLB	35	49	58→60	41→30	50	261/324/469	208	286	26	3	20%	8%	122	+2.9	255/329/459	204	289	25	4	21%	8%	122	+2.9	248/333/466	218	280	27	0	21%	9%	126	+0.9
✕Brett Harper 2016 · AAA	35	46→51	54→60	46→30	44	242/303/406	164	299	24	6	28%	7%	99	+1.3	233/288/380	147	293	20	5	27%	6%	88	+0.4	223/276/357	134	277	19	0	26%	6%	77	-0.2

Patrick Wisdom

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps