Alberto RodriguezOF Northwest Arkansas Naturals
Age 25 L/L 5'11" / 227 lbs AA HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
2026 ROS PROJECTION104 act + 184 ros · stats below = ROS only
wRC+†51
AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .264 / .314
PA184
HR3
K%33
BB%7
BABIP299
ISO107
MLB%2%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: -17.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-17BATRUN: -1.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-1RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -1.7 runs (Positional adjustment)-2POSREP: +8.2 runs (Replacement-level credit)+8REPTotal WAR: -1.20-1.2WAR
0.00.51.00.00.0-$2M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Tools · ContractCON 29 / POW 35
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT29
scouting grade only
POWER35
scouting grade only
EYE40
scouting grade only
SPEED49
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M
2030Pre-Arb$0.9M
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-5M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
201817 ROKDSL Blue Jays 263241 44614 19792 216 183248266514 83252 307 227 32
201817 ROKDSL Blue Jays 263228 58915 32552 216 254351368720 114314 2112 328 109
201918 ROKGCL Blue Jays 195181 39912 11460 132 215260309570 94272 246 245 46
201918 ROKGCL Blue Jays 195173 521312 19320 132 301370422792 121352 1610 350 126
202120 A2 teams 459411 10325611 361347 157 251322421743 170339 298 320 103
202120 A2 teams 459394 11431510 531027 157 289383470853 180362 2212 375 146
202221 A+2 teams 570534 941935 312064 84 176227251478 75275 365 216 24
202221 A+2 teams 570509 13229311 561494 84 259337393730 134346 2610 329 110
202322 A+2 teams 524477 11228512 3414910 83 235299390689 155314 286 299 87
202322 A+2 teams 524460 13838714 5112010 83 300382504886 204378 2310 389 156
202423 AAArkansas Travelers 384358 751614 171223 104 209251293545 84300 324 242 43
202423 AAArkansas Travelers 384353 851823 221033 104 241291329620 88325 276 277 70
202524 INTLAguilas Cibaenas 113100 35433 11232 00 350425540965 190432 2010
202524 INTLAguilas Cibaenas 113100 35433 11232 00 350425540965 190432 2010 425 183
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD25 AAKC 10493 18201 10380 02 194272247519 54309 3710 236 39 -7 -1 +0 -1 +3 -0.6
YTD25 AAKC 10488 20201 15290 02 227340284624 57322 2814 293 83 -2 -1 +0 -1 +3 -0.1
ROS25 AAKC 2% 184169 35713 12601 11 207264314577 107291 337 252 51 -10 -0 +0 -1 +5 -0.6
ROS25 MLBKC 2% 44 1000 010 00 250250250500 288 250 244 45 -0 +0 +0 -0 +0 -0.0
FULL25 AAKC 10897 19201 10390 02 196271247518 52310 369 236 39 -7 -1 +0 -1 +3 -0.6
TOT25 AAKC 288262 53914 22981 13 202267290557 88302 348 246 47 -17 -1 +0 -2 +8 -1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202726 MLBKC 31% 314287 591215 21993 22 206267307574 101293 327 263 59 -14 -0 +0 -2 +9 -0.8
202827 MLBKC 42% 355325 691327 241103 22 212273329602 117293 317 267 63 -15 -0 +0 -2 +10 -0.8
202928 MLBKC 48% 379346 731427 271163 22 211274324598 113292 317 269 64 -15 -0 -1 -2 +11 -0.8
203029 MLBKC 49% 386352 741427 281183 22 210274321595 111292 317 269 64 -16 -0 -1 -2 +11 -0.9
202726 MLBKC 31% 9790 19402 6311 11 211268322590 111289 326 253 52 -5 -0 +0 -1 +3 -0.3
202827 MLBKC 42% 149137 29513 10461 11 212270328599 117289 317 258 56 -7 -0 +0 -1 +4 -0.4
202928 MLBKC 48% 181164 35713 13552 11 213279323603 110289 307 260 57 -9 -0 -0 -1 +5 -0.5
203029 MLBKC 49% 191173 36713 14592 11 208275312587 104288 317 259 56 -9 -0 -1 -1 +5 -0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career 622568 12023311 431926 44 211274320594 109296 317 258 56 -31 -1 -1 -4 +18 -2.0
/ 162G 650594 12524311 452016 44 210273316589 106296 317 258 56 -33 -1 -1 -4 +18 -2.0
Career 41263781 8121672870 271126241 8435 215275329604 115300 317 256 54 -214 +3 -2 -25 +117 -12.3
/ 162G 650596 12726411 431996 136 213273326598 112297 317 256 54 -34 +0 -0 -4 +18 -2.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
201817 ROKDSL Blue Jays 263228 58915 32552 216 254351368720 114314 2112 328 109 +3 +2 +7 1.2
201918 ROKGCL Blue Jays 195173 521312 19320 132 301370422792 121352 1610 350 126 +6 +2 +6 1.3
202120 A+Everett AquaSox 2824 5100 272 20 208321250571 42294 257 277 71 -1 +0 +1 0.0
202120 AModesto Nuts 431370 10930510 51955 137 295387484871 189367 2212 382 150 +25 -0 +12 3.7
202221 A+Everett AquaSox 527472 12328310 501384 64 261337396733 136348 269 329 110 +6 -0 +15 2.1
202221 INTLPeoria Javelinas 4337 9101 6110 20 243349351700 108320 2614 323 105 +0 +0 +1 0.2
202322 AAArkansas Travelers 202179 52803 20511 52 291365385750 95386 2510 338 117 +4 +0 +6 1.0
202322 A+Everett AquaSox 322281 8630711 31699 31 306393580973 274373 2110 420 180 +29 +0 +9 3.9
202423 AAArkansas Travelers 384353 851823 221033 104 241291329620 88325 276 277 70 -13 +0 +11 -0.2
202524 INTLAguilas Cibaenas 113100 35433 11232 00 350425540965 190432 2010 425 183 +11 +0 +3 1.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
#1Adam Rosaleslast yr '17
career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA
91,7564716227293367+6+83.03.5
/162664186+2.4+3.01.1pk7: 4
#2Juan Castrolast yr '10
career totals — 11 seasons, 2,352 PA
112,352344237273341+10+211.02.7
/162664101+3.0+5.80.3pk7: 4
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19
career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA
71,680226230279335+9+212.02.0
/16266492+3.7+8.50.8pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24
career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA
71,5644513236292400-11-61.31.3
/162664196-4.5-2.50.6pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24
career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA
61,6334033232299363+6-140.90.9
/1626641613+2.4-5.80.4pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons
2624114211270322-4+0-1.3-0.7
/162664124-4.0+0.0-1.4pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17
career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA
71,9012139231275323+14-6-1.1-1.1
/162664714+4.9-2.1-0.4pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Alberto Rodriguez (OGILVIE) 25 29 35 49 40 202/267/290 88302 41 34% 8% 47 -1.2
Jackson Cluff
2022 · AA
25 40→29 40→45 49→60 37 191/259/277 86288 712 34% 6% 48 -1.9 177/254/283 106281 1016 38% 8% 47 -1.9 181/273/314133265152835%10%61-0.6
Scott Hurst
2021 · AA
25 41→31 40 44→50 41 200/257/288 88290 86 32% 7% 48 -1.9 201/267/295 94294 915 32% 8% 55 -1.4 197/269/29093279101731%8%51-0.9
Shayne Fontana
2022 · AA
25 40 41→45 48→55 46 193/273/296 103282 88 32% 9% 58 -1.2 214/297/319 105298 1014 29% 9% 75 -0.0 219/304/31898295101927%8%75-0.0
Matt Winaker
2021 · A
25 37→38 41→45 46→45 42 183/263/283 100256 87 30% 7% 52 -1.6 195/287/282 87269 76 28% 8% 62 -0.9 175/279/254792407327%9%50-0.7
Jameson Fisher
2019 · AA
25 38→36 41→45 41→45 42 188/262/288 99281 96 34% 8% 52 -1.6 194/259/295 101293 96 34% 7% 52 -1.6 194/254/29810528310433%7%48-1.4
Shane Matheny
2021 · A
25 38→41 41→45 44→50 36 188/242/278 90296 94 38% 6% 40 -2.4 199/274/324 125321 148 39% 9% 66 -0.6 193/282/32613330016938%10%68-0.3
Julian Escobedo
2023 · AA
25 37→34 41→40 48→50 40 186/251/287 100259 914 31% 6% 46 -2.0 205/270/324 119291 1114 32% 7% 64 -0.8 182/254/327145270142036%6%54-0.3
Justin Toerner
2022 · AAA
25 39 44→45 45→50 43 191/276/301 110289 138 36% 9% 62 -0.9 187/281/300 113283 1211 35% 10% 64 -0.8 162/269/266104242121235%10%50-0.8
Brock Lundquist
2021 · AA
25 41→43 44→45 46→45 41 207/269/325 118287 127 31% 7% 64 -0.8 206/275/323 117358 138 42% 8% 66 -0.6 146/233/2429529115051%8%30-0.7
J.R. Hopf
2008 · AAA
25 39 41→45 49→40 38 190/246/286 96301 95 38% 7% 43 -2.2 210/274/301 91294 84 29% 8% 59 -1.1 210/278/291812827126%8%57-0.4
Stefan Welch
2014 · AA
25 41→40 44→45 45→40 43 204/270/319 114276 125 30% 7% 63 -0.8 201/274/319 118286 125 32% 7% 65 -0.7 173/256/28911625112134%8%50-1.2
Chantz Mack
2016 · AA
25 43→45 42→45 45 44 209/271/314 105285 96 29% 7% 61 -1.0 215/288/326 111295 115 29% 9% 72 -0.2 212/292/32110928512328%10%70-0.2
Jayson Langfels
2014 · AA
25 41→32 43→40 46→50 37 199/262/305 106309 1111 37% 6% 56 -1.3 205/280/293 88338 715 38% 8% 60 -1.0 202/285/2757334451738%8%55-0.7
Daniel Cabrera
2023 · AA
24 40 45 51→45 41 205/253/327 122266 127 28% 6% 56 -1.3 215/278/315 100279 88 24% 8% 64 -0.8 217/300/282652832822%10%64-0.3
Eric Jagielo
2017 · AA
25 40→36 46→50 47→30 38 201/262/322 122296 142 36% 6% 60 -1.0 184/243/281 97269 93 34% 6% 41 -2.3 163/223/252892359133%5%23-2.4
Ryan Scott
2018 · A
25 39→35 40 50→45 37 189/250/280 91282 78 34% 5% 44 -2.1 174/234/270 96268 96 36% 6% 34 -2.8 124/186/210861899238%7%-3-3.3
Seth Gray
2023 · AA
25 37→36 45 47→50 37 182/259/294 113303 148 42% 7% 53 -1.5 208/285/315 107351 1113 40% 8% 69 -0.4 209/294/3049536191940%9%66-0.4
Ross Adolph
2022 · AA
25 41→32 45→40 44→50 37 193/271/314 121331 138 42% 7% 63 -0.9 206/305/328 122373 1211 43% 9% 82 +0.5 182/314/2809835781644%12%72-0.1
Daniel Salters
2018 · AA
25 41 41→40 47→30 38 202/249/291 90283 93 31% 5% 46 -2.0 215/271/327 112299 125 31% 5% 65 -0.7 227/286/34011332014232%5%71-0.1
Mark Contreras
2021 · AA
26 36→37 44→50 47→55 38 184/248/300 115271 1213 35% 6% 49 -1.8 201/261/346 145293 1719 36% 6% 66 -0.6 197/258/338141284182436%6%60-0.8