Alberto Rodriguez

OF Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 26 L/L 5'11" / 227 lbs AA HR -15%K -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	23	AASEA	384	.241/.291/.329	3	10	45	—	.209/.249/.287
2025	24	INTLAguilas Cibae…	113	.350/.425/.540	3	0	174	—
2026	25	AA/ROK2 orgs	213	.208/.306/.284	3	1	38	—	.179/.254/.237
2027PROJMLE	26	MLBKC	2	.209/.273/.314	0	0	69	-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	27	MLBKC	37	.210/.275/.316	1	0	69	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Z-Con%82

Whiff%46

BB%32

Speed29

K%24

Chase%18

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsMark Contreras (age 26) · Shane Matheny (age 26) · Justin Toerner (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .273 / .314

PA2

HR0

K%50

BB%6

BABIP290

ISO119

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	263	228	58	9	1	5	32	55	2	21	6	254	351	368	720	114	314	21	12	328	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK	GCL Blue Jays	—	195	173	52	13	1	2	19	32	0	13	2	301	370	422	792	121	352	16	10	350	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	28	24	5	1	0	0	2	7	2	2	0	208	321	250	571	42	294	25	7	277	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A	Modesto Nuts	—	431	370	109	30	5	10	51	95	5	13	7	295	387	484	871	189	367	22	12	382	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	527	472	123	28	3	10	50	138	4	6	4	261	337	396	733	136	348	26	9	329	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	43	37	9	1	0	1	6	11	0	2	0	243	349	351	700	108	320	26	14	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	202	179	52	8	0	3	20	51	1	5	2	291	365	385	750	95	386	25	10	338	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	322	281	86	30	7	11	31	69	9	3	1	306	393	580	973	274	373	21	10	420	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	384	353	85	18	2	3	22	103	3	10	4	241	291	329	620	88	325	27	6	277	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	INTL	Aguilas Cibaenas	—	113	100	35	4	3	3	11	23	2	0	0	350	425	540	965	190	432	20	10	425	174	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	196	170	34	3	1	3	17	58	5	1	2	200	292	282	574	82	277	30	9	264	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	ROK	ACL Royals	—	17	13	4	0	0	0	4	4	0	0	0	308	471	308	778		444	24	24	377	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	263	238	37	5	1	2	22	67	2	21	6	155	233	210	443	55	205	25	8	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	—	195	181	40	9	1	2	11	46	0	13	2	221	266	315	581	94	266	24	6	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	28	25	4	1	0	0	1	10	2	2	0	160	250	200	450	40	271	36	4	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	431	386	98	25	5	9	35	127	5	13	7	254	324	415	738	161	344	29	8	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	527	487	96	20	3	6	35	185	4	6	4	197	257	287	544	90	301	35	7	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	202	185	47	7	0	3	14	60	1	5	2	254	310	341	651	86	349	30	7	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	322	290	70	23	5	9	22	89	9	3	1	241	315	448	763	207	316	28	7	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	384	359	75	15	2	3	16	120	3	10	4	209	249	287	536	78	292	31	4	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	196	175	31	3	1	2	12	71	5	1	2	177	250	240	490	63	260	36	6	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	—	17	15	3	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	200	294	200	494		343	35	12	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	263	238	37	5	1	2	22	67	2	21	6	155	233	210	443	55	206	25	8	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	—	263	228	58	9	1	5	32	55	2	21	6	254	351	368	720	114	314	21	12	328	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	—	195	181	40	9	1	2	11	46	0	13	2	221	266	315	581	94	279	24	6	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	GCL Blue Jays	—	195	173	52	13	1	2	19	32	0	13	2	301	370	422	792	121	352	16	10	350	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	459	410	103	26	5	9	37	136	7	15	7	251	324	405	729	154	348	30	8	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	459	394	114	31	5	10	53	102	7	15	7	289	383	470	853	180	362	22	12	375	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	570	527	105	22	3	7	38	200	4	8	4	199	258	292	551	93	305	35	7	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	570	509	132	29	3	11	56	149	4	8	4	259	337	393	730	134	346	26	10	329	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	524	475	117	30	5	12	36	149	10	8	3	246	313	406	719	160	332	28	7	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	524	460	138	38	7	14	51	120	10	8	3	300	382	504	886	204	378	23	10	389	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	384	359	75	15	2	3	16	120	3	10	4	209	249	287	536	78	299	31	4	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	—	384	353	85	18	2	3	22	103	3	10	4	241	291	329	620	88	325	27	6	277	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	INTL MLE	Aguilas Cibaenas	—	113	100	35	4	3	3	11	23	2	0	0	350	425	540	965	190	432	20	10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	INTL RAW	Aguilas Cibaenas	—	113	100	35	4	3	3	11	23	2	0	0	350	425	540	965	190	432	20	10	425	174	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	213	190	34	3	1	2	14	77	5	1	2	179	254	237	490	58	281	36	7	224	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA RAW	2 teams	—	213	183	38	3	1	3	21	62	5	1	2	208	306	284	590	77	289	29	10	273	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	263	237	37	5	1	2	22	67	2	21	6	156	233	211	444	55	205	25	8	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	—	195	182	40	9	1	2	11	46	0	13	2	220	266	313	579	93	266	24	6	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	459	412	103	26	5	9	37	136	7	15	7	250	324	403	727	153	340	30	8	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	570	523	105	22	3	7	38	200	4	8	4	201	258	294	553	94	301	35	7	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	524	473	117	30	5	12	36	149	10	8	3	247	313	408	721	161	329	28	7	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	384	362	75	15	2	3	16	120	3	10	4	207	249	285	533	77	292	31	4	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	213	192	34	3	1	2	14	77	5	1	2	177	254	234	488	57	267	36	7	224	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	23	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	384	362	75	15	2	3	16	120	3	10	4	207	249	285	533	77	292	31	4	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	213	192	34	3	1	2	14	77	5	1	2	177	254	234	488	57	267	36	7	224	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	26	MLB MLE	KC	2%	263	240	51	9	1	5	17	80	4	4	1	212	276	321	596	109	292	30	6	269	69	-10	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	26	MLB CTX	KC	2%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	209	273	314	588	105	290	50	0	266	69	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	KC	27%	139	127	28	5	1	3	9	42	2	2	1	212	277	323	599	110	291	30	6	271	69	-5	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	KC	27%	37	33	7	1	0	1	3	11	1	0	0	210	275	316	591	106	289	30	8	267	69	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	37	33	7	1	0	1	3	11	1	0	0	212	297	333	631	121	286	30	8	267	58	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	124	18	0	18	53	193	18	0	0	214	300	338	638	124	287	30	8	267	58	-24	+0	+0	-4	+14	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	2971	2708	596	123	23	45	201	894	37	80	30	220	283	332	615	112	308	30	7	253	58	-9	+0	+0	-2	+5	-0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	592	131	27	5	10	44	196	8	18	7	221	284	334	619	113	309	30	7	253	58	-24	+0	+0	-4	+14	-1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 196 PAwOBA .261 → .221 (−40)K% 29.6% → 36.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.59%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	36.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.67%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.988	6.00%
HBP% /PA	2.55%	—	×0.870	—	×0.988	2.19%
Singles /BIP	24.11%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.050	×0.988	23.01%
Doubles /BIP	2.68%	÷1.000	×0.840	×1.050	×0.988	2.33%
Triples /BIP	0.89%	÷1.000	×0.940	×1.050	×0.988	0.87%
Home runs /BIP	2.68%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.988	2.12%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .261 → .221; ISO .082 → .067; BABIP .277 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Royals · 17 PAwOBA .369 → .253 (−117)K% 23.5% → 33.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.53%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	33.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	23.53%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.940	13.71%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	44.44%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.940	34.26%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .369 → .253; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .444 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAArkansas Travelers · 384 PAwOBA .272 → .235 (−37)K% 26.8% → 31.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.82%	÷1.046	×1.220	—	—	31.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.47%	÷0.928	×0.700	—	×1.012	4.17%
HBP% /PA	0.78%	—	×0.870	—	×1.012	0.69%
Singles /BIP	24.80%	÷1.020	×0.920	×0.995	×1.012	22.53%
Doubles /BIP	7.20%	÷0.977	×0.840	×0.995	×1.012	6.24%
Triples /BIP	0.80%	÷1.150	×0.940	×0.995	×1.012	0.66%
Home runs /BIP	1.20%	÷0.820	×0.800	—	×1.012	1.18%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 64, 1B 104, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 109, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .272 → .235; ISO .088 → .077; BABIP .325 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Everett AquaSox · 322 PAwOBA .408 → .325 (−83)K% 21.4% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.43%	÷1.046	×1.350	—	—	27.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.32%	÷0.953	×0.710	—	×0.998	6.93%
HBP% /PA	2.80%	—	×0.810	—	×0.998	2.26%
Singles /BIP	17.92%	÷1.018	×0.910	×1.011	×0.998	16.16%
Doubles /BIP	14.15%	÷1.040	×0.830	×1.011	×0.998	11.39%
Triples /BIP	3.30%	÷1.023	×0.820	×1.011	×0.998	2.67%
Home runs /BIP	5.19%	÷1.012	×0.830	—	×0.998	4.25%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 104, 2B 108, 3B 105, K 109, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.

Result: wOBA .408 → .325; ISO .274 → .213; BABIP .373 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAArkansas Travelers · 202 PAwOBA .333 → .287 (−46)K% 25.2% → 29.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.25%	÷1.041	×1.220	—	—	29.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.90%	÷1.046	×0.700	—	×1.027	6.80%
HBP% /PA	0.50%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	0.44%
Singles /BIP	32.03%	÷1.033	×0.920	×0.996	×1.027	29.18%
Doubles /BIP	6.25%	÷0.983	×0.840	×0.996	×1.027	5.46%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.103	×0.940	×0.996	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.34%	÷0.853	×0.800	—	×1.027	2.26%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 107, 2B 97, 3B 121, K 108, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .333 → .287; ISO .095 → .087; BABIP .386 → .349. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Everett AquaSox · 527 PAwOBA .322 → .241 (−80)K% 26.2% → 35.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.19%	÷1.007	×1.350	—	—	35.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.49%	÷1.039	×0.710	—	×1.012	6.56%
HBP% /PA	0.76%	—	×0.810	—	×1.012	0.62%
Singles /BIP	24.55%	÷1.021	×0.910	×0.997	×1.012	22.07%
Doubles /BIP	8.38%	÷1.048	×0.830	×0.997	×1.012	6.70%
Triples /BIP	0.90%	÷0.900	×0.820	×0.997	×1.012	0.83%
Home runs /BIP	2.99%	÷1.237	×0.830	—	×1.012	2.03%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 147, 1B 104, 2B 110, 3B 80, K 101, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .322 → .241; ISO .136 → .093; BABIP .348 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AModesto Nuts · 431 PAwOBA .376 → .322 (−55)K% 22.0% → 29.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.04%	÷1.019	×1.360	—	—	29.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.83%	÷1.010	×0.690	—	×1.015	8.20%
HBP% /PA	1.16%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.92%
Singles /BIP	23.27%	÷1.020	×0.920	×1.050	×1.015	22.37%
Doubles /BIP	10.91%	÷1.014	×0.830	×1.050	×1.015	9.51%
Triples /BIP	1.82%	÷0.903	×0.910	×1.050	×1.015	1.95%
Home runs /BIP	3.64%	÷0.861	×0.800	—	×1.015	3.43%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 81, K 104, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .376 → .322; ISO .189 → .170; BABIP .367 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Everett AquaSox · 28 PAwOBA .271 → .216 (−55)K% 25.0% → 34.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷0.985	×1.350	—	—	34.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.14%	÷1.125	×0.710	—	×1.027	4.63%
HBP% /PA	7.14%	—	×0.810	—	×1.027	5.94%
Singles /BIP	23.53%	÷0.978	×0.910	—	×1.027	22.48%
Doubles /BIP	5.88%	÷1.076	×0.830	—	×1.027	4.66%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.929	×0.820	—	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.078	×0.830	—	×1.027	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 96, 2B 115, 3B 86, K 97, BB 125 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .271 → .216; ISO .042 → .030; BABIP .294 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alberto Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	26	—	—	—	—	210/273/318	108	292	2	2	30%	7%	69	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Mark Contreras 2021 · AA	26	36→39	43→50	47→55	38	183/247/296	112	267	11	13	34%	6%	53	-2.1	201/262/336	135	294	15	19	35%	6%	68	-1.0	197/259/326	130	285	15	24	35%	6%	62	-1.1
✕Shane Matheny 2022 · AA	26	39→42	42→45	47→50	41	190/258/296	106	297	10	6	38%	8%	57	-1.8	204/286/324	120	318	13	9	36%	10%	74	-0.5	195/283/314	119	298	13	9	36%	10%	69	-0.6
✕Justin Toerner 2023 · AAA	26	40	42→40	48→50	45	193/287/295	103	289	10	10	34%	9%	70	-0.9	192/283/307	115	279	12	11	33%	10%	70	-0.8	124/235/230	107	167	13	9	33%	11%	35	-1.2
✕Jackson Cluff 2023 · AA	26	36→30	40→45	48→60	36	177/240/265	88	277	7	11	37%	6%	44	-2.8	185/267/299	114	279	11	21	35%	9%	61	-1.5	178/268/298	120	261	12	28	34%	10%	60	-0.9
✕Cole Cummings 2024 · AA	26	39→37	47→45	48→45	43	198/277/328	130	276	15	5	32%	8%	72	-0.7	193/260/301	108	308	11	8	38%	7%	59	-1.6	167/236/260	93	283	9	9	41%	7%	40	-2.6
✕Tristan Gray 2022 · AAA	26	42→36	47→50	42→40	42	214/275/350	136	287	14	5	30%	7%	76	-0.4	189/242/343	154	266	20	4	36%	5%	63	-1.4	197/252/324	127	261	14	3	29%	6%	61	-1.0
✕Connor Panas 2019 · AA	26	41→42	45	45→40	40	208/268/329	121	273	13	5	28%	6%	69	-0.9	214/277/337	123	278	12	8	27%	6%	74	-0.6	172/258/322	149	210	16	6	26%	7%	60	-0.3
✕Will Robertson 2024 · AA	26	37→41	50	45	39	198/255/352	154	274	17	7	34%	6%	70	-0.9	201/266/344	143	287	16	5	34%	7%	72	-0.7	195/264/336	141	278	16	2	34%	7%	67	-0.8
✕Eric Jagielo 2018 · AAA	26	39→37	40→45	42→30	42	191/262/279	87	272	8	2	31%	7%	55	-1.9	188/243/293	105	275	10	4	34%	6%	51	-2.3	161/206/267	106	236	11	1	36%	4%	29	-2.8
✕Patrick Dorrian 2022 · AAA	26	40→38	47→50	47→45	42	202/269/336	134	296	14	6	36%	8%	71	-0.8	192/258/329	137	289	16	6	37%	8%	65	-1.2	172/239/299	127	255	16	5	38%	7%	48	-1.4
✕Gabe Snyder 2021 · A	26	40→35	47→50	46→40	40	203/263/333	130	276	15	5	31%	6%	68	-1.0	209/280/347	138	299	14	8	33%	8%	77	-0.3	166/258/327	161	227	17	7	33%	10%	62	-0.4
✕Dillon Paulson 2023 · AA	26	44→36	46→50	45→30	49	224/293/354	130	274	15	6	24%	8%	84	+0.1	218/281/327	109	285	10	5	25%	8%	73	-0.6	211/273/307	96	276	7	0	25%	7%	62	-0.5
✕Chase Pinder 2022 · AA	26	40	42→45	44→45	46	198/280/299	102	270	11	5	30%	8%	67	-1.1	225/320/359	134	292	13	10	25%	11%	95	+1.0	219/322/357	138	284	14	11	26%	12%	93	+0.4
✕Ryan Aguilar 2021 · AA	26	40	41→45	49→50	41	192/266/289	97	311	9	8	39%	8%	59	-1.7	190/280/303	113	308	12	13	39%	10%	68	-1.0	175/274/295	120	276	14	14	38%	11%	61	-0.8
✕Devin Foyle 2022 · AA	25	41→39	46→45	48→45	44	207/273/338	131	273	14	10	29%	7%	72	-0.7	214/284/324	110	273	10	7	24%	8%	74	-0.6	194/281/260	67	243	5	0	21%	9%	55	-0.7
✕Shayne Fontana 2022 · AA	25	40	41→45	48→55	46	195/273/300	105	283	8	8	32%	9%	63	-1.3	215/297/319	104	298	10	14	29%	8%	78	-0.3	219/303/314	95	294	10	19	27%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Morgan McCullough 2024 · AAA	26	42	44→45	49→50	44	204/285/323	119	291	11	12	32%	8%	74	-0.5	208/286/330	122	294	11	15	31%	9%	76	-0.4	175/268/298	123	241	12	20	30%	10%	61	-0.5
✕Seth Fortenberry 2010 · AA	26	36→41	43→45	51→50	42	182/255/296	114	271	11	10	35%	8%	57	-1.8	190/253/290	100	306	7	9	37%	7%	53	-2.1	154/208/242	88	288	0	4	44%	6%	22	-0.8
✕Jake Lowery 2016 · AA	26	37	43→45	47→30	44	186/253/298	111	262	10	4	32%	8%	55	-1.9	187/257/288	101	288	9	5	35%	8%	55	-2.0	125/202/184	59	253	4	0	48%	9%	10	-1.2
✕Aaron Miller 2014 · AA	26	44→35	45→55	50→40	39	220/265/344	124	291	13	4	29%	5%	70	-0.8	209/269/355	146	304	15	5	34%	7%	75	-0.5	186/256/353	166	273	17	2	37%	8%	68	-0.7