Miguel Vargas

P DSL Arizona Black

Age 19 RHP 6'5" / 205 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	17	ROKDSL Arizona B…	6	5	8	5.62	5.35	15.0%	25.0%	—	K 15.0% · BB 25.0% · FIP 5.00
2026	18	ROKDSL Arizona B…	9	9	23	6.17	4.17	15.0%	17.8%	—	K 10.2% · BB 22.2% · FIP 5.05
2027PROJ	19	MLBARI	3	3	14	5.74	5.74	19.4%	18.2%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	20	MLBARI	2	2	11	5.41	5.29	20.4%	15.5%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJustin Lange (age 19) · Marlon Nieves (age 19) · Jared Kelley (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142134vR 126

ERA5.74

FIP5.74

K%19.4%

BB%18.2%

K-BB%1.2%

Proj IP14

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	6	5	8	40	6	10	0	83%	1.3	15.0%	25.0%	-10.0%	0.0%	5.62	5.00	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	6	5	8	40	6	10	0	83%	1.3	15.0%	25.0%	-10.0%	0.0%	5.62	5.00	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	6	5	8	40	6	10	0	83%	1.3	15.0%	25.0%	-10.0%	0.0%	5.62	5.35	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	9	9	23	107	16	19	0	100%	2.6	10.2%	22.2%	-12.0%	0.0%	6.17	5.05	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	9	9	23	107	16	19	0	100%	2.6	10.2%	22.2%	-12.0%	0.0%	6.17	5.05	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	9	9	23	107	16	19	0	100%	2.6	15.0%	17.8%	-2.8%	0.0%	6.17	4.17	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	ARI	3	3	14	59	11	11	2	100%	4.7	19.4%	18.2%	1.2%	2.9%	5.74	5.74	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	ARI	4	4	22	93	19	14	3	100%	5.5	20.4%	15.5%	4.9%	2.9%	5.41	5.29	-0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	ARI	2	2	11	46	9	7	1	100%	5.5	20.4%	15.5%	4.9%	2.9%	5.41	5.29	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	11	46	9	7	1	100%	5.4	20.4%	15.5%	4.9%	2.9%	5.41	4.91	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	43	200	844	166	129	18	100%	4.6	20.4%	15.5%	4.9%	2.9%	5.41	4.91	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		15	14	31	147	17	34	0	93%	2.1	11.5%	23.0%	-11.5%	0.0%	6.03	5.04	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		96	89	200	938	108	215	0	93%	2.1	11.5%	23.0%	-11.5%	0.0%	6.03	5.04	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Miguel Vargas (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.74	19.4%	18.2%	2.9%	—	5.29	20.4%	4.9%	22	-0.45	—	—	—
Justin Lange R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	19	SP	4.55	19.3%	18.4%	1.4%	.298	4.81	23.4%	3.7%	122	+0.26	4.55	144	88
Marlon Nieves R 2024 · 5.63 FIP	19	SP	5.63	17.9%	20.0%	2.8%	.300	4.19	18.6%	1.2%	134	-1.44	3.82	187	84
Jared Kelley R 2021 · 5.33 FIP	19	SP	5.33	16.5%	23.2%	1.2%	.312	5.14	16.5%	-1.2%	174	-0.19	4.25	250	82
Gio Arriera R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	19	SP	5.41	15.1%	13.9%	3.3%	.333	4.34	15.5%	2.0%	79	-1.07	4.34	185	81
Eddy Peralta R 2023 · 4.65 FIP	20	SP-	4.65	22.0%	19.8%	1.6%	.342	3.96	21.0%	1.7%	86	-0.69	3.73	117	81
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	80
Alexander Almonte R 2024 · 5.69 FIP	17	SP	5.69	16.2%	13.8%	4.0%	.250	4.82	12.6%	-2.8%	75	-0.87	4.27	100	79
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	78
Jose Pena Jr. R 2022 · 5.48 FIP	19	SP-	5.48	15.0%	18.7%	2.3%	.269	4.62	19.2%	3.1%	124	-0.86	3.48	176	78
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	77
Victor Mederos R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	21	SP	4.69	15.6%	14.0%	2.1%	.286	5.19	16.4%	5.7%	301	+0.50	3.73	394	77
Chen-Wei Lin R 2023 · 6.48 FIP	21	SP	6.48	21.3%	22.0%	4.4%	.379	3.81	20.5%	8.4%	257	-2.67	3.05	269	77
Tyrone Yulie R 2021 · 6.80 FIP	19	SP	6.80	19.7%	22.1%	4.7%	.324	5.30	18.1%	2.7%	166	-1.50	4.87	265	77
Ryan Harbin R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	19	SP	4.79	15.8%	15.4%	2.0%	.391	4.57	21.8%	6.2%	107	-0.22	3.82	185	77
Peter Heubeck R 2022 · 6.70 FIP	20	SP	6.70	21.9%	20.8%	5.1%	.221	4.52	22.2%	6.6%	243	-2.18	4.08	294	77
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	76
Omar Victorino R 2024 · 5.88 FIP	19	SP-	5.88	19.5%	30.3%	1.1%	.302	5.30	13.2%	-5.7%	97	-0.58	5.26	182	76
Lisandro Almonte R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	19	SP-	4.89	16.3%	16.4%	2.0%	.298	4.93	19.6%	4.9%	78	+0.04	3.81	128	76
Jhonly Taveras R 2024 · 6.59 FIP	19	SP	6.59	13.0%	27.1%	2.1%	.311	5.00	12.1%	-11.0%	34	-1.59	5.00	133	76
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.81	21.3%	8.0%	253	-0.15	3.82	323	76