Omar Victorino — OGILVIE

Omar Victorino P FCL Mets

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 170 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.6 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 34 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147138vR 130

ERA5.97

FIP5.97

K%16.7%

BB%18.4%

K-BB%-1.7%

ROS IP35

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 1	13	11	37	174	37	32	2	85%	2.8	14.5%	23.0%	-8.5%	1.7%	5.11	5.72	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 1	13	11	37	174	37	32	2	85%	2.8	21.3%	18.4%	2.9%	1.1%	5.11	4.40	—
2023	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	7	21	122	25	28	2	70%	2.1	15.9%	23.4%	-7.5%	2.5%	10.89	6.10	—
2023	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	7	21	122	25	28	2	70%	2.1	15.9%	23.4%	-7.5%	2.5%	10.89	6.10	—
2023	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	7	21	122	25	28	2	70%	2.1	20.5%	23.0%	-2.5%	1.6%	10.89	6.00	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	10	8	28	136	39	33	1	80%	2.8	19.5%	30.3%	-10.8%	1.1%	5.46	5.88	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	10	8	28	136	39	33	1	80%	2.8	19.5%	30.3%	-10.8%	1.1%	5.46	5.88	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Mets	10	8	28	136	39	33	1	80%	2.8	28.7%	24.3%	4.4%	0.7%	5.46	4.31	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	11	66	288	52	40	4	58%	3.5	12.6%	16.9%	-4.2%	2.1%	3.97	5.32	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	11	66	288	52	40	4	58%	3.5	12.6%	16.9%	-4.2%	2.1%	3.97	5.32	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	11	66	288	52	40	4	58%	3.5	18.1%	13.9%	4.2%	1.4%	3.97	4.14	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	21	2	32	169	35	32	1	10%	1.5	14.4%	23.0%	-8.6%	0.8%	7.96	5.26	—
YTD	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	21	2	32	169	35	32	1	10%	1.5	14.4%	23.0%	-8.6%	0.8%	7.96	5.26	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	NYM	16	0	20	104	26	17	1	0%	1.2	25.0%	16.3%	8.7%	1.0%	4.50	3.59	—
2026	21	A RAW	NYM	5	2	12	65	9	15	0	40%	2.3	13.8%	23.1%	-9.2%	0.0%	13.89	4.85	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	NYM	59	0	62	262	50	41	7	0%	1.1	18.9%	15.5%	3.4%	2.8%	5.55	5.38	-0.6
2028	23	MLB MLE	NYM	61	0	64	272	55	37	8	0%	1.1	20.3%	13.5%	6.8%	2.8%	5.19	5.00	-0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	NYM	63	0	66	279	59	34	8	0%	1.0	21.1%	12.2%	8.9%	2.8%	4.92	4.76	-0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	NYM	64	0	67	282	61	32	8	0%	1.0	21.5%	11.4%	10.2%	2.7%	4.73	4.61	-0.0
2031	26	MLB MLE	NYM	64	0	67	282	61	32	8	0%	1.0	21.7%	11.3%	10.4%	2.7%	4.65	4.59	-0.0
2032	27	MLB MLE	NYM	63	0	66	278	60	32	8	0%	1.0	21.7%	11.4%	10.3%	2.8%	4.64	4.63	-0.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	NYM	61	0	64	269	58	31	8	0%	1.0	21.6%	11.6%	10.0%	2.9%	4.68	4.71	-0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	NYM	30	0	31	131	25	20	4	0%	1.0	18.9%	15.5%	3.4%	2.8%	5.55	5.38	-0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	NYM	45	0	47	198	40	27	5	0%	1.0	20.3%	13.5%	6.8%	2.8%	5.19	5.00	-0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	NYM	52	0	55	232	49	28	6	0%	1.1	21.1%	12.2%	8.9%	2.8%	4.92	4.76	-0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	NYM	56	0	59	249	54	28	7	0%	1.1	21.5%	11.4%	10.2%	2.7%	4.73	4.61	-0.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	NYM	58	0	61	258	56	29	7	0%	1.1	21.7%	11.3%	10.4%	2.7%	4.65	4.59	-0.0
2032	27	MLB CTX	NYM	58	0	61	258	56	29	7	0%	1.1	21.7%	11.4%	10.3%	2.8%	4.64	4.63	-0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	NYM	57	0	60	253	55	29	7	0%	1.1	21.6%	11.6%	10.0%	2.9%	4.68	4.71	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		355	0	373	1574	333	191	44	0%	1.1	21.2%	12.1%	9.0%	2.8%	4.84	4.38	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	179	102	24	0%	1.1	21.2%	12.1%	9.0%	2.8%	4.84	4.38	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		73	39	183	889	132	197	15	53%	2.5	14.8%	22.2%	-7.4%	1.7%	5.90	5.58	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	43	200	972	144	216	16	53%	2.5	14.8%	22.2%	-7.4%	1.7%	5.90	5.58	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Omar Victorino (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.97	16.7%	18.4%	2.9%	—	5.04	20.1%	6.4%	192	-0.93	—	—	—
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	88
Nestor Lorant R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SW	5.53	18.7%	18.2%	3.1%	.280	3.86	20.5%	11.3%	249	-1.67	2.73	373	85
Lisandro Almonte R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	20.4%	20.7%	2.8%	.274	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	15	-1.73	3.81	128	83
Ronny Lopez R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	20	SW	5.33	15.1%	20.6%	1.6%	.232	5.01	13.7%	-5.7%	85	-0.32	4.23	121	83
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	83
Rubén Menes R 2023 · 6.12 FIP	21	SP-	6.12	13.1%	21.9%	2.5%	.257	4.94	15.6%	2.1%	100	-1.18	3.39	112	82
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	82
Yeiber Cartaya R 2023 · 5.38 FIP	20	SW	5.38	16.4%	21.2%	1.8%	.307	4.38	20.4%	3.8%	235	-1.00	4.12	283	81
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	81
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	80
Yeriel Santos R 2023 · 5.89 FIP	19	SW	5.89	17.4%	22.9%	2.5%	.239	5.80	16.0%	-0.9%	276	-0.09	4.44	351	79
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	79
Bryant Salgado R 2021 · 5.65 FIP	21	SW	5.65	14.2%	20.4%	2.1%	.219	4.83	15.9%	3.5%	89	-0.82	4.83	110	79
Aneudis Mejia R 2023 · 7.12 FIP	19	SW	7.12	18.7%	29.9%	3.3%	.404	5.03	16.9%	1.3%	102	-2.09	4.36	122	79
Jorge Juan R 2019 · 5.47 FIP	20	SW	5.47	14.7%	24.8%	0.8%	.323	4.64	25.5%	14.0%	38	-0.83	3.48	238	79
Sunayro Martina R 2023 · 4.79 FIP	19	SP-	4.79	17.6%	21.9%	0.7%	.247	5.46	14.4%	-4.0%	90	+0.67	4.57	118	79
Jace Beck R 2021 · 5.13 FIP	21	SP-	5.13	21.1%	23.7%	1.5%	.347	5.32	25.7%	2.8%	50	+0.19	4.03	211	79
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	79
Leudy Martinez R 2019 · 5.99 FIP	19	SW	5.99	15.2%	22.0%	2.5%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	116	79
Xavier Moore R 2019 · 4.93 FIP	20	SW	4.93	12.5%	15.8%	1.6%	.288	4.35	27.6%	13.0%	71	-0.58	2.31	135	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	61	20.7%	12.8%	1.08	4.98
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77