Jorge Juan — OGILVIE

Jorge Juan P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 27 RHP 6'8" / 200 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 22 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.67

FIP5.67

K%21.4%

BB%19.0%

K-BB%2.4%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	19	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	15	6	43	192	48	22	0	40%	2.9	17.0%	14.3%	2.7%	0.0%	2.70	3.48	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	15	6	43	192	48	22	0	40%	2.9	25.0%	11.5%	13.5%	0.0%	2.70	2.41	—
2019	20	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics Green	13	6	33	166	36	33	1	46%	2.6	14.7%	24.8%	-10.1%	0.8%	7.29	5.47	—
2019	20	ROK RAW	AZL Athletics Green	13	6	33	166	36	33	1	46%	2.6	21.7%	19.9%	1.8%	0.6%	7.29	4.30	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	6	27	113	40	13	4	75%	3.3	28.0%	10.1%	17.9%	2.7%	5.40	3.51	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	6	27	113	40	13	4	75%	3.3	35.4%	11.5%	23.9%	3.5%	5.40	3.51	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	4	21	84	28	9	3	50%	2.6	22.3%	13.3%	9.0%	5.8%	3.92	6.06	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	4	21	84	28	9	3	50%	2.6	33.3%	10.7%	22.6%	3.6%	3.92	3.58	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	49	232	65	44	3	0%	1.4	22.2%	21.1%	1.1%	1.6%	4.20	4.78	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	49	232	65	44	3	0%	1.4	22.2%	21.1%	1.1%	1.6%	4.20	4.78	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	49	232	65	44	3	0%	1.4	28.0%	19.0%	9.1%	1.3%	4.20	3.93	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	34	0	37	177	53	27	3	0%	1.1	24.3%	16.8%	7.5%	2.2%	5.11	4.41	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	34	0	37	177	53	27	3	0%	1.1	24.3%	16.8%	7.5%	2.2%	5.11	4.41	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Mississippi Braves	34	0	37	177	53	27	3	0%	1.1	29.9%	15.3%	14.7%	1.7%	5.11	3.48	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	38	187	46	37	5	0%	1.3	19.5%	22.2%	-2.8%	2.9%	5.21	5.88	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	38	187	46	37	5	0%	1.3	19.5%	22.2%	-2.8%	2.9%	5.21	5.88	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	38	187	46	37	5	0%	1.3	24.6%	19.8%	4.8%	2.7%	5.21	5.31	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	2	0	2	13	1	5	0	0%	0.8	—	—	—	—	27.00	—	—
YTD	27	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	2	0	2	13	1	5	0	0%	0.8	—	—	—	—	27.00	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	BOS	2	0	2	13	1	5	0	0%	0.8	7.7%	38.5%	-30.8%	0.0%	27.00	7.32	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	BOS	21	0	22	93	20	17	3	0%	1.0	21.5%	18.2%	3.3%	3.0%	5.58	5.62	-0.3
2027	28	MLB CTX	BOS	8	0	8	34	7	6	1	0%	1.0	21.5%	18.2%	3.3%	3.0%	5.58	5.62	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	35	7	6	1	0%	1.0	21.5%	18.2%	3.3%	3.0%	5.58	5.24	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	169	145	24	0%	1.1	21.5%	18.2%	3.3%	3.0%	5.58	5.24	-1.6
Career	—	MLE		144	22	250	1164	239	217	23	15%	1.7	20.6%	18.6%	2.0%	1.9%	4.90	4.78	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		115	18	200	931	191	173	18	15%	1.7	20.6%	18.6%	2.0%	1.9%	4.90	4.78	-2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jorge Juan (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.67	21.4%	19.0%	2.9%	—	5.62	21.5%	3.3%	22	-0.05	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	79
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.19	17.7%	6.6%	90	-0.70	3.90	164	78
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	78
Mitchell Stumpo R 2023 · 6.35 FIP	27	SU	6.35	20.6%	20.8%	4.3%	.368	4.77	22.6%	15.5%	34	-1.58	3.97	158	78
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	78
Brian Glowicki R 2022 · 5.39 FIP	27	SU	5.39	18.2%	15.9%	3.3%	.229	—	—	—	—	—	2.31	189	78
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	77
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	77
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	20.6%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.20	23.6%	6.8%	107	-0.44	4.00	311	77
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	76
Zack Leban R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	27	SU	4.82	19.8%	18.8%	1.8%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	123	76
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	76
Mitchell Osnowitz R 2017 · 5.30 FIP	26	SU	5.30	16.5%	18.7%	2.2%	.366	5.43	19.2%	7.7%	42	+0.13	4.54	132	75
Hunter Dollander R 2023 · 6.77 FIP	26	SU	6.77	17.6%	18.3%	5.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	106	75
Harrison Cooney R 2018 · 6.60 FIP	26	SU	6.60	18.8%	21.9%	4.2%	.237	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	186	75
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	75
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	75
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	74
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	74
Nelson Gonzalez R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	27	SU	5.00	15.3%	13.7%	2.6%	.239	5.79	17.4%	6.7%	96	+0.79	3.42	258	74