Braydon Risley — OGILVIE

Braydon Risley P Bradenton Marauders

Age 21 LHP 6'0" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.7 · 2033

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101109vR 117

ERA4.43

FIP4.43

K%22.1%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%13.0%

ROS IP25

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$20M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2033	Arb-2	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-3	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M
Totals		$8M		$8M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	25	12	75	329	83	28	9	48%	3.0	18.9%	8.9%	10.0%	3.7%	5.38	4.64	—
YTD	21	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	25	12	75	329	83	28	9	48%	3.0	18.9%	8.9%	10.0%	3.7%	5.38	4.64	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	PIT	1	0	1	6	1	2	0	0%	1.0	16.7%	33.3%	-16.7%	0.0%	9.00	5.91	—
2026	21	A RAW	PIT	16	11	63	269	67	17	5	69%	4.0	24.9%	6.3%	18.6%	1.9%	4.55	2.82	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	PIT	7	1	10	46	13	7	4	14%	1.4	28.3%	15.2%	13.0%	8.7%	9.00	7.41	—
2026	21	AA RAW	PIT	1	0	1	8	2	2	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.00	4.16	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	PIT	74	0	78	327	76	28	10	0%	1.0	23.1%	8.6%	14.5%	3.0%	4.32	4.25	+0.3
2028	23	MLB MLE	PIT	77	0	80	339	81	28	10	0%	1.0	23.8%	8.3%	15.6%	2.9%	4.20	4.12	+0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	PIT	78	0	82	348	85	28	10	0%	1.1	24.3%	8.0%	16.3%	2.9%	4.11	4.04	+0.5
2030	25	MLB MLE	PIT	79	0	83	352	87	28	10	0%	1.1	24.6%	7.9%	16.7%	2.9%	4.04	3.99	+0.6
2031	26	MLB MLE	PIT	79	0	83	352	87	28	10	0%	1.1	24.8%	7.9%	17.0%	2.9%	4.00	3.97	+0.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	PIT	78	0	82	347	86	28	10	0%	1.1	24.8%	7.9%	16.9%	2.9%	4.00	4.00	+0.5
2033	28	MLB MLE	PIT	76	0	80	336	90	25	10	0%	1.0	26.7%	7.3%	19.4%	3.0%	3.89	3.82	+0.7
2034	29	MLB MLE	PIT	72	0	76	321	85	24	10	0%	1.1	26.5%	7.5%	18.9%	3.2%	3.92	3.95	+0.5
2035	30	MLB MLE	PIT	68	0	71	301	79	24	10	0%	1.1	26.1%	7.8%	18.3%	3.4%	4.04	4.13	+0.4
2027	22	MLB CTX	PIT	36	0	38	160	37	14	4	0%	1.1	23.1%	8.6%	14.5%	2.7%	4.20	4.13	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	PIT	56	0	59	249	59	21	7	0%	1.1	23.8%	8.3%	15.6%	2.7%	4.08	4.00	+0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	PIT	65	0	68	287	70	23	8	0%	1.0	24.3%	8.0%	16.3%	2.7%	3.99	3.92	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	PIT	70	0	74	312	77	25	8	0%	1.1	24.6%	7.9%	16.7%	2.7%	3.92	3.87	+0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	PIT	72	0	76	321	80	25	9	0%	1.1	24.8%	7.9%	17.0%	2.7%	3.88	3.85	+0.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	PIT	72	0	76	321	80	25	9	0%	1.1	24.8%	7.9%	16.9%	2.7%	3.88	3.88	+0.5
2033	28	MLB CTX	PIT	71	0	75	317	85	23	9	0%	1.1	26.7%	7.3%	19.4%	2.8%	3.76	3.69	+0.7
2034	29	MLB CTX	PIT	69	0	72	304	80	23	9	0%	1.0	26.5%	7.5%	18.9%	3.0%	3.79	3.82	+0.5
2035	30	MLB CTX	PIT	65	0	68	287	75	22	9	0%	1.0	26.1%	7.8%	18.3%	3.1%	3.90	3.99	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		577	0	605	2556	642	201	71	0%	1.0	25.1%	7.9%	17.2%	2.8%	3.91	3.51	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	212	66	23	0%	1.1	25.1%	7.9%	17.2%	2.8%	3.91	3.51	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		25	12	75	329	62	29	12	48%	3.0	18.9%	8.9%	10.0%	3.7%	5.38	4.64	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	32	200	873	165	78	32	48%	3.0	18.9%	8.9%	10.0%	3.7%	5.38	4.64	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Braydon Risley (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	22.1%	9.1%	3.0%	—	4.13	23.8%	15.5%	240	-0.30	—	—	—
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	82
Sonny Vargas L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP-	4.54	21.0%	10.1%	3.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	165	80
Taylor Hearn L 2016 · 3.99 FIP	21	SW	3.99	26.1%	10.6%	3.2%	.347	4.01	22.3%	11.7%	236	+0.02	3.72	572	80
Matt Osterberg L 2021 · 3.88 FIP	22	SW	3.88	20.2%	12.3%	1.7%	.255	4.04	15.6%	9.3%	274	+0.16	3.70	294	80
Jack Patterson L 2018 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP-	4.72	14.7%	8.0%	3.4%	.299	3.10	19.4%	7.9%	80	-1.62	3.10	127	77
Jacob Lopez L 2018 · 3.66 FIP	20	SW	3.66	24.3%	7.9%	2.9%	.302	3.53	30.4%	21.6%	55	-0.13	3.49	534	77
Ryan Williamson L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP-	4.10	18.4%	5.9%	3.3%	.286	5.57	18.4%	5.8%	102	+1.47	4.10	123	77
Josh Hendrickson L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	21	SW	3.80	21.8%	6.7%	3.1%	.250	4.67	19.3%	10.9%	110	+0.87	3.80	365	76
Alex Cornwell L 2022 · 3.76 FIP	23	SW	3.76	18.9%	7.3%	2.4%	.382	3.81	16.2%	8.2%	311	+0.05	3.16	381	76
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	76
Keyshawn Askew L 2022 · 3.32 FIP	22	SW	3.32	25.6%	12.2%	1.5%	.274	3.81	20.7%	5.5%	196	+0.49	3.32	262	76
Conner Menez L 2016 · 4.10 FIP	21	SP-	4.10	16.0%	8.5%	2.3%	.282	3.83	21.9%	10.7%	377	-0.27	2.03	503	76
Jordi Martinez L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	19.4%	10.0%	2.0%	.277	4.44	17.7%	6.6%	120	+0.60	3.15	205	76
Develson Aria L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	21	SP-	4.32	19.9%	12.2%	2.5%	.346	6.47	16.7%	-11.9%	47	+2.15	4.32	137	76
James Reeves L 2016 · 3.32 FIP	23	SW	3.32	21.9%	8.7%	1.8%	.237	3.30	23.0%	13.1%	146	-0.02	2.02	280	75
Bryan Sammons L 2017 · 3.58 FIP	22	SP-	3.58	22.7%	10.5%	1.9%	.275	3.96	18.4%	8.4%	228	+0.38	3.58	688	75
Jack Owen L 2021 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	4.2%	.359	4.22	16.0%	8.7%	201	-0.36	3.44	221	75
Sam Long L 2016 · 3.26 FIP	21	SW	3.26	20.7%	9.8%	1.2%	.371	3.85	21.3%	13.1%	97	+0.59	3.10	446	74
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	74
Tommy Sommer L 2021 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP-	4.65	23.9%	9.3%	4.3%	.196	5.36	18.6%	6.1%	205	+0.71	4.28	230	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	74	24.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.07
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59