Braydon Risley
P
San Jose Giants
Age 21
LHP
6'0" / 190 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.9 · 2031
2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 40 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99108vR 117
ERA4.32
FIP4.32
K%23.1%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%14.0%
ROS IP40
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | San Jose Giants | 14 | 11 | 60 | 258 | 64 | 17 | 5 | 79% | 4.3 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 2.5% | 4.80 | 3.92 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | SF | 7 | 7 | 40 | 169 | 39 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.1% | 9.1% | 14.0% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | SF | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.1% | 9.1% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.25 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | SF | — | — | 100 | 427 | 103 | 32 | 10 | — | — | 24.1% | 7.6% | 16.6% | 2.4% | 4.61 | 4.08 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SF | 8 | 8 | 42 | 177 | 43 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.2 | 24.1% | 8.6% | 15.5% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.15 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | SF | 8 | 8 | 44 | 184 | 46 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.7% | 8.3% | 16.4% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.03 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | SF | 8 | 8 | 45 | 189 | 48 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.2% | 8.1% | 17.1% | 2.9% | 4.02 | 3.95 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | SF | 8 | 8 | 45 | 191 | 49 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 17.5% | 2.9% | 3.96 | 3.91 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | SF | 8 | 8 | 45 | 191 | 49 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.8% | 8.0% | 17.8% | 2.9% | 3.91 | 3.88 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | SF | 7 | 7 | 45 | 188 | 48 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.4 | 25.7% | 8.1% | 17.7% | 2.9% | 3.92 | 3.92 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | SF | 7 | 7 | 43 | 183 | 47 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.6% | 8.2% | 17.4% | 3.0% | 3.97 | 4.01 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SF | 4 | 4 | 21 | 89 | 21 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 5.2 | 24.1% | 8.6% | 15.5% | 2.8% | 4.16 | 4.09 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | SF | 6 | 6 | 32 | 135 | 33 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 5.3 | 24.7% | 8.3% | 16.4% | 2.8% | 4.05 | 3.97 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | SF | 7 | 7 | 37 | 156 | 39 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.3 | 25.2% | 8.1% | 17.1% | 2.8% | 3.96 | 3.89 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | SF | 7 | 7 | 40 | 169 | 43 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 17.5% | 2.7% | 3.90 | 3.85 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | SF | 7 | 7 | 41 | 173 | 45 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.8% | 8.0% | 17.8% | 2.7% | 3.85 | 3.82 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | SF | 7 | 7 | 41 | 173 | 45 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.7% | 8.1% | 17.7% | 2.8% | 3.86 | 3.86 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | SF | 7 | 7 | 41 | 173 | 44 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.6% | 8.2% | 17.4% | 2.9% | 3.90 | 3.94 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 44 | 44 | 253 | 1067 | 271 | 87 | 30 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.4% | 8.2% | 17.2% | 2.8% | 3.93 | 3.52 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 214 | 69 | 24 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.4% | 8.2% | 17.2% | 2.8% | 3.93 | 3.52 | +4.4 | ||
| Career | — | 14 | 11 | 60 | 258 | 47 | 20 | 6 | 79% | 4.3 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 2.5% | 4.80 | 3.92 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 37 | 200 | 860 | 158 | 67 | 22 | 79% | 4.3 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 2.5% | 4.80 | 3.92 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Braydon Risley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 23.1% | 9.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.04 | 24.7% | 16.3% | 130 | -0.28 | — | — | — |
| Marcelo Martinez L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.29 | 22.0% | 6.5% | 2.2% | .303 | 5.66 | 18.6% | 10.2% | 234 | +2.37 | 3.29 | 427 | 81 |
| Adam Seminaris L 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.90 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 3.0% | .357 | 3.75 | 18.2% | 9.3% | 230 | -0.15 | 3.11 | 524 | 81 |
| Jake Bennett L 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.54 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .339 | 3.10 | 19.0% | 12.8% | 156 | -0.44 | 2.79 | 219 | 79 |
| Aidan Deakins L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.83 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 2.3% | .323 | 5.29 | 17.1% | 6.0% | 62 | +1.46 | 3.83 | 119 | 79 |
| Hunter Barco L 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.51 | 23.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .275 | 3.79 | 22.7% | 10.5% | 150 | +0.28 | 3.51 | 212 | 78 |
| Moises Brito L 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.15 | 22.9% | 8.7% | 1.6% | .250 | 7.75 | 18.0% | -2.5% | 21 | +4.60 | 2.56 | 106 | 78 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2028 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 3.5% | .349 | 4.18 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 175 | -0.31 | 3.65 | 308 | 78 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2028 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.33 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.0% | .288 | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.7% | 150 | -0.32 | 3.72 | 239 | 78 |
| Kash Mayfield L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.36 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 109 | 77 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2029 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 77 |
| Drew Parrish L 2028 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.53 | 24.1% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .261 | 6.22 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 354 | +2.69 | 3.53 | 522 | 77 |
| Bryan Sammons L 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.60 | 22.7% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .275 | 3.91 | 18.4% | 8.4% | 228 | +0.31 | 3.53 | 688 | 77 |
| A.J. Block L 2028 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.68 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .262 | 5.86 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.18 | 3.64 | 203 | 77 |
| Austin Emener L 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.86 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 4.1% | .306 | 5.42 | 23.7% | 8.9% | 49 | +0.56 | 4.86 | 109 | 76 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2029 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.71 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.64 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.07 | 3.39 | 300 | 76 |
| Avery Short L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.04 | 20.1% | 11.4% | 4.0% | .346 | 4.76 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 271 | -0.28 | 4.31 | 460 | 76 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.86 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.28 | 3.86 | 189 | 76 |
| Matt Mikulski L 2028 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .360 | 5.95 | 16.3% | -2.8% | 144 | +1.15 | 4.80 | 223 | 76 |
| Sonny Vargas L 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.43 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.3% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 165 | 76 |
| David Shields L 2024 · 3.45 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.45 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 2.0% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 148 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 44 | 25.0% | 8.3% | 1.13 | 4.05 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| Trevor May ('23) | 8 | 51 | 27.6% | 8.3% | 1.18 | 3.83 |
| Ryan Tepera ('22) | 7 | 48 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.12 | 3.53 |
| Joakim Soria ('21) | 7 | 54 | 26.1% | 7.8% | 0.92 | 3.65 |
| Sergio Romo ('21) | 7 | 50 | 26.3% | 7.0% | 1.20 | 3.70 |
| Tyler Clippard ('21) | 7 | 54 | 25.9% | 9.0% | 1.29 | 3.47 |