Hayden Cuthbertson

Hayden Cuthbertson P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 22 LHP 6'2" / 200 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 131

ERA5.16

FIP5.16

K%21.4%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%7.1%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	4	0	5	18	6	2	0	0%	1.2	33.3%	11.1%	22.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.69	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	4	0	5	18	6	2	0	0%	1.2	33.3%	11.1%	22.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.69	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	4	0	5	18	6	2	0	0%	1.2	33.3%	11.1%	22.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.90	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	32	0	42	201	40	37	7	0%	1.3	14.9%	23.7%	-8.8%	4.8%	6.70	7.50	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	32	0	42	201	40	37	7	0%	1.3	14.9%	23.7%	-8.8%	4.8%	6.70	7.50	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	MIA	9	0	11	46	10	5	1	0%	1.3	21.7%	10.9%	10.9%	2.2%	2.38	3.83	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	MIA	23	0	30	155	30	32	6	0%	1.3	19.4%	20.6%	-1.3%	3.9%	8.31	6.21	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIA	40	0	42	179	40	22	5	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.5%	9.8%	3.0%	4.92	4.82	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIA	20	0	21	89	20	11	3	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.5%	9.8%	3.0%	4.92	4.82	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		20	0	21	88	20	11	3	0%	1.0	22.3%	12.5%	9.8%	3.0%	4.92	4.45	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	191	105	29	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.5%	9.8%	3.0%	4.92	4.45	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		36	0	47	219	36	50	10	0%	1.3	16.4%	22.7%	-6.3%	4.4%	5.98	7.03	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	0	200	939	154	213	42	0%	1.3	16.4%	22.7%	-6.3%	4.4%	5.98	7.03	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hayden Cuthbertson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.16	21.4%	14.3%	3.0%	—	4.82	22.3%	9.8%	42	-0.34	—	—	—
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	89
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	88
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	87
Jonathan Hennigan L 2017 · 4.08 FIP	22	SU	4.08	22.0%	13.6%	2.0%	.341	3.57	17.5%	5.8%	119	-0.51	3.46	265	86
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	85
Ignacio Briceno L 2023 · 4.54 FIP	22	SU	4.54	17.3%	12.7%	2.4%	.270	3.28	14.7%	3.5%	76	-1.26	2.39	156	84
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	84
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	83
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	83
Brandon Neeck L 2023 · 4.19 FIP	23	SU	4.19	21.0%	13.9%	2.0%	.419	4.27	22.8%	8.8%	171	+0.08	3.22	198	83
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	82
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	82
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	81
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	81
Nick Jones L 2022 · 4.21 FIP	23	SU	4.21	22.3%	17.9%	1.3%	.284	3.63	21.7%	12.0%	143	-0.58	1.32	201	81
Will Mabrey L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	22	SU	4.27	18.5%	12.6%	2.1%	.256	4.27	19.2%	6.6%	62	+0.00	4.14	128	81
Evan Taylor L 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	28.1%	16.5%	2.7%	.304	3.19	21.9%	10.0%	150	-1.12	3.01	223	80
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	79
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	79
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	22.0%	13.1%	1.16	5.00
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22