Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 18 | 1 | 49 | 217 | 48 | 17 | 7 | 6% | 2.7 | 16.4% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 5.69 | 5.19 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CHC | 33 | 0 | 34 | 145 | 33 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 9.2% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.1% | 9.2% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.36 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 83 | 362 | 81 | 30 | 11 | — | — | 22.5% | 8.4% | 14.1% | 3.1% | 5.14 | 4.85 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CHC | 34 | 0 | 35 | 149 | 35 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 8.8% | 14.8% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.25 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 34 | 0 | 36 | 150 | 36 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 8.7% | 15.3% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.19 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 34 | 0 | 36 | 150 | 36 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 8.7% | 15.5% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 4.17 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 36 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 8.8% | 15.4% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 4.21 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 35 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 8.9% | 15.1% | 3.1% | 4.26 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CHC | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 8.8% | 14.8% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.25 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 24 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 8.7% | 15.3% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.19 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 29 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 8.7% | 15.5% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 4.17 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 31 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 8.8% | 15.4% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 4.21 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 30 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 8.9% | 15.1% | 3.1% | 4.26 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 121 | 0 | 127 | 536 | 129 | 47 | 16 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 8.8% | 15.3% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 3.84 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 74 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 8.8% | 15.3% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 3.84 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 18 | 1 | 49 | 217 | 36 | 20 | 9 | 6% | 2.7 | 16.4% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 5.69 | 5.19 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 73 | 4 | 200 | 886 | 145 | 82 | 37 | 6% | 2.7 | 16.4% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 5.69 | 5.19 | +0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Riely Hunsaker (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 23.1% | 9.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.20 | 24.0% | 15.2% | 106 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Conroy R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 86 |
| Clark Beeker R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.04 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .270 | 4.35 | 11.6% | 6.4% | 244 | +0.31 | 4.04 | 287 | 84 |
| Parker Curry R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.68 | 22.5% | 8.2% | 2.6% | .341 | 4.68 | 18.6% | 11.6% | 193 | +1.00 | 3.68 | 256 | 83 |
| Kevin Coulter R 2025 · 3.27 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.27 | 21.0% | 7.4% | 1.8% | .287 | 4.31 | 16.1% | 7.6% | 92 | +1.04 | 3.27 | 128 | 83 |
| Luis Romero R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.50 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 3.2% | .367 | 4.16 | 21.6% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.34 | 3.99 | 293 | 82 |
| Michael Gomez R 2025 · 3.38 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.38 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .283 | 3.78 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.40 | 3.33 | 286 | 82 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 81 |
| Ben Anderson R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.05 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 4.4% | .309 | 3.93 | 16.2% | 7.7% | 147 | -1.12 | 3.71 | 361 | 81 |
| Colby Morris R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 81 |
| Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .258 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.63 | 3.89 | 145 | 81 |
| Alex Klonowski R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.32 | 21.8% | 9.4% | 1.6% | .331 | 4.90 | 14.3% | 7.1% | 413 | +1.58 | 3.32 | 539 | 81 |
| Joshua Loeschorn R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.74 | 24.5% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .272 | 4.60 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 67 | +0.86 | 3.04 | 135 | 81 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 81 |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 80 |
| Tyler Bray R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.17 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.91 | 2.81 | 152 | 80 |
| Jacob Dorris R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.86 | 26.9% | 12.4% | 2.7% | .295 | 4.59 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 88 | +0.73 | 3.86 | 130 | 80 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.58 | 26.2% | 12.8% | 3.8% | .282 | 4.62 | 22.3% | 11.4% | 86 | +0.04 | 4.36 | 152 | 80 |
| Zac Ryan R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.74 | 20.5% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .233 | 3.92 | 21.6% | 6.9% | 124 | +0.18 | 3.74 | 184 | 80 |
| Carlo Reyes R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.10 | 25.2% | 10.2% | 3.4% | .291 | 4.12 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 117 | +0.02 | 2.79 | 229 | 80 |
| Nick Merkel R 2028 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.90 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 3.3% | .284 | 3.25 | 20.8% | 10.5% | 125 | -0.65 | 3.08 | 201 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 35 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 1.17 | 4.26 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Ryan Tepera ('22) | 7 | 48 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.12 | 3.53 |
| Dominic Leone ('23) | 7 | 46 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 1.33 | 3.81 |