Ely Brown — OGILVIE

Ely BrownOF Winston-Salem Dash

Age 22 L/L 6'0" / 190 lbs A+ HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION343 act + 228 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†74

AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .318 / .293

PA228

HR2

SB7

K%25

BB%11

BABIP296

ISO76

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE65

scouting grade only

SPEED62

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	122	109	32	3	0	0	10	26	1	15	0	294	358	321	679	28	381	21	8	298	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	122	101	32	3	0	0	17	19	1	15	0	317	417	347	763	30	386	16	14	350	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	A+	CWS	—	343	291	63	10	1	2	42	88	5	13	9	216	325	278	604	62	300	26	12	274	68	-12	-1	+0	-2	+10	-0.6
YTD	22	A+	CWS	—	343	268	66	11	1	2	65	66	5	13	9	246	402	317	720	71	317	19	19	338	117	+7	-1	+0	-2	+10	1.3
ROS	22	A+	CWS	0%	228	197	43	7	1	2	26	58	3	7	4	218	318	293	611	76	294	25	11	282	74	-7	-0	+0	-1	+6	-0.2
ROS	22	MLB	CWS	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						294	0	0	273	67	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	22	A+	CWS	—	344	292	63	10	1	2	42	88	5	13	9	216	324	277	602	62	299	26	12	274	68	-12	-1	+0	-2	+10	-0.6
TOT	22	A+	CWS	—	571	488	106	17	2	4	68	146	8	20	13	217	322	284	607	68	299	26	12	277	70	-19	-1	+0	-3	+16	-0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	CWS	35%	346	300	67	12	1	4	39	85	4	9	4	223	321	310	631	87	295	25	11	291	81	-7	+0	+0	-2	+10	0.0
2028	24	MLB	CWS	46%	416	363	82	14	2	6	46	101	4	11	5	226	320	325	645	99	296	24	11	298	86	-6	+0	+0	-2	+12	0.3
2029	25	MLB	CWS	52%	623	542	125	22	3	10	69	151	7	16	8	231	325	338	663	107	296	24	11	302	89	-8	+0	+0	-4	+18	0.7
2030	26	MLB	CWS	54%	622	541	126	22	3	11	69	150	7	16	8	233	327	346	673	113	296	24	11	304	91	-6	+0	+0	-4	+18	0.8
2031	27	MLB	CWS	54%	617	536	123	21	2	11	69	149	7	16	8	229	325	338	663	108	296	24	11	304	91	-6	+0	+0	-4	+17	0.8
2027	23	MLB	CWS	35%	120	104	22	4	0	1	14	30	1	3	1	212	311	279	590	67	296	25	12	284	76	-3	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.0
2028	24	MLB	CWS	46%	192	167	39	7	1	3	21	47	2	5	2	234	326	341	668	108	297	24	11	291	81	-4	+0	+0	-1	+5	0.0
2029	25	MLB	CWS	52%	322	280	64	11	1	5	36	78	3	8	4	229	323	329	651	100	297	24	11	295	84	-6	+0	+0	-2	+9	0.1
2030	26	MLB	CWS	54%	337	293	68	12	1	6	37	81	4	9	4	232	326	341	668	109	297	24	11	297	86	-6	+0	+0	-2	+10	0.2
2031	27	MLB	CWS	54%	335	291	67	12	1	6	37	81	4	9	4	230	325	340	666	110	296	24	11	297	86	-5	+0	+0	-2	+9	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1307	1136	260	46	4	21	145	317	14	34	15	229	324	332	655	103	297	24	11	295	84	-24	+1	+0	-8	+37	0.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	565	129	23	2	10	72	158	7	17	7	228	323	329	652	101	297	24	11	295	84	-12	+1	+0	-4	+18	0.3
Career	—			—	2974	2588	598	101	12	44	328	720	33	90	37	231	325	330	655	99	301	24	11	299	87	-43	+3	+0	-18	+84	2.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	566	131	22	3	10	72	157	7	20	8	231	326	334	660	102	301	24	11	299	87	-9	+1	+0	-4	+18	0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	122	101	32	3	0	0	17	19	1	15	0	317	417	347	763	30	386	16	14	350	126	+4	+3	—	—	+3	1.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	8	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
	/162	664	17	29	251	317	406	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#2Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	6	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
	/162	664	16	27	245	323	394	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
#3Desi Relafordlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,443 PA	6	2,443	34	64	246	329	356	-1	-7	5.1	5.1
	/162	664	9	17	246	329	356	-0.3	-1.8	1.4	pk7: 5
#4Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#5Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	1,307	22	33	230	322	337	-8	+0	1.4	1.4
	/162	664	11	17	230	322	337	-4.0	+0.0	0.7	pk7: 1
#6Doug Glanvillelast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,256 PA	5	2,256	35	90	259	290	356	-9	+3	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	10	26	259	290	356	-2.8	+0.9	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ely Brown (OGILVIE)	22	45→50	30→35	57→62	65	217/322/284	68	299	4	20	26%	12%	70	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chandler Simpson 2023 · A	22	49→59	38→30	56→70	49	228/296/314	87	301	4	17	24%	8%	72	-0.2	265/309/316	51	306	1	59	13%	6%	76	+0.0	299/334/350	51	335	0	65	10%	5%	92	+0.9
✕Chris Pieters 2017 · A	22	48	39→45	54→55	49	226/307/315	88	296	6	17	24%	8%	77	+0.1	207/263/300	93	289	6	12	28%	6%	54	-1.4	195/251/293	97	271	6	13	28%	6%	45	-0.8
✕Jacob Robson 2017 · A	22	45→55	36→45	54→55	45	211/274/281	70	296	2	18	28%	8%	53	-1.5	238/294/333	95	351	6	16	31%	7%	75	-0.0	247/314/371	124	370	11	22	33%	8%	90	+0.8
✕Dan Robinson 2019 · A	22	52	38→40	51→50	51	243/305/334	91	287	4	10	16%	8%	80	+0.4	215/282/292	77	281	4	7	23%	8%	59	-1.1	197/270/264	67	260	2	5	23%	9%	44	-1.3
✕Brent Keys 2012 · A	22	45→55	35→30	51→50	47	213/283/271	58	282	3	14	24%	8%	55	-1.4	268/325/334	66	306	3	12	12%	7%	89	+0.9	277/340/332	55	310	2	12	10%	8%	90	+0.7
✕Carlos Mendoza 2022 · A	22	53→56	37→40	56→55	57	245/341/322	77	298	3	18	17%	11%	94	+1.3	235/338/307	72	307	3	14	22%	12%	89	+0.9	245/334/339	93	298	8	19	19%	9%	92	+0.8
✕Carlos Rodríguez 2023 · A	22	45→55	39→40	52→50	44	215/277/301	86	296	5	16	28%	7%	60	-1.0	254/306/336	82	309	4	15	18%	7%	80	+0.4	259/308/332	73	304	4	16	16%	6%	77	+0.1
●Sal Frelick 2022 · A	22	52→59	40→45	56→55	48	247/307/344	98	310	7	17	22%	8%	84	+0.6	263/324/374	111	306	8	19	16%	8%	98	+1.6	266/334/365	99	304	8	20	14%	8%	99	+1.4
✕Ji Hwan Bae 2021 · A	22	49→51	37→45	54→60	45	225/285/313	88	309	2	20	26%	7%	66	-0.6	232/289/343	111	310	8	26	26%	7%	76	+0.1	240/313/341	101	332	7	39	27%	9%	83	+0.3
✕Davis Bradshaw 2019 · A	21	52	37→40	59→50	45	244/300/322	78	309	3	20	21%	6%	75	-0.0	224/270/287	63	290	2	11	22%	4%	53	-1.5	270/323/338	69	342	4	10	21%	5%	85	+0.4
✕Hoy Park 2018 · A	22	43→49	40→45	58→55	46	205/275/300	94	276	6	17	27%	8%	59	-1.1	222/298/307	85	300	5	16	25%	9%	71	-0.3	227/314/325	98	300	8	17	25%	10%	79	+0.2
✕Yoyner Fajardo 2021 · A	22	50→58	36→45	55→60	47	233/290/305	72	281	3	17	18%	6%	66	-0.6	242/297/323	81	319	4	24	24%	6%	74	-0.1	259/317/353	94	332	5	34	22%	7%	85	+0.4
●Ezequiel Carrera 2009 · A	22	50→60	39→45	57→60	45	235/296/328	93	301	6	20	23%	7%	75	-0.0	258/317/333	75	326	3	25	20%	7%	85	+0.7	256/323/359	102	320	11	15	22%	8%	92	+0.7
✕Leon Johnson 2008 · A	23	49	40	58→60	50	229/302/326	97	301	6	22	24%	9%	77	+0.1	218/282/296	78	282	5	17	23%	7%	61	-1.0	200/262/221	21	248	0	22	18%	6%	30	-0.7
✕Cory Harrilchak 2010 · A	22	52→56	38→45	57→50	50	246/300/333	87	283	4	15	15%	7%	77	+0.1	240/290/345	105	296	6	13	20%	6%	77	+0.1	235/287/346	111	291	6	13	20%	6%	73	-0.1
✕Joshua Howard 2006 · A	23	51	36→40	57→60	44	236/288/314	77	305	2	18	22%	6%	67	-0.5	225/299/290	65	314	3	20	26%	9%	66	-0.6	218/300/268	50	309	2	23	27%	10%	59	-0.6
✕Miles Mastrobuoni 2018 · A	22	46→56	37→45	49→60	48	219/277/289	70	279	5	13	22%	8%	56	-1.3	237/297/309	72	317	5	12	24%	8%	70	-0.3	253/316/365	112	324	9	21	23%	8%	88	+0.7
✕Yoel Yanqui 2018 · A	22	52→50	40	56→50	47	244/307/345	101	326	5	12	25%	8%	84	+0.6	225/280/312	87	313	6	11	28%	7%	64	-0.8	215/274/307	92	299	8	11	29%	7%	58	-0.8
✕Dwight Smith Jr. 2015 · A	22	50→53	41→50	53→50	49	240/298/343	104	292	7	12	20%	8%	79	+0.3	235/285/337	102	290	8	9	21%	6%	72	-0.2	245/307/382	136	293	13	9	20%	7%	91	+0.9
✕Logan Watkins 2012 · A	22	50→52	37→40	55	44	232/287/313	82	309	3	14	25%	6%	67	-0.5	224/286/318	94	297	6	17	25%	7%	68	-0.5	224/279/299	75	286	3	17	22%	6%	58	-0.6