Ely Brown

OF Winston-Salem Dash

Age 23 L/L 6'0" / 190 lbs A+ HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1537ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	ACWS	122	.317/.417/.347	0	15	94	—	.299/.375/.327
2026	22	A+CWS	539	.275/.400/.372	5	26	75	—	.235/.319/.318
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBCWS	1	.232/.312/.321	0	0	82	-0.0
2028PROJ30% MLB	24	MLBCWS	125	.236/.316/.337	2	3	87	0.0
2029PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBCWS	229	.238/.318/.347	4	6	90	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$3M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

Whiff%95

Z-Con%91

K%85

BB%82

Chase%81

wRC+66

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 2.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsHoy Park (age 23) · Jose Constanza (age 23) · Kyle Mottice (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†82

AVG/OBP/SLG.232 / .312 / .321

PA1

HR0

K%21

BB%10

BABIP291

ISO86

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 38

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER38

scouting grade only

EYE59

scouting grade only

SPEED63

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	122	101	32	3	0	0	17	19	1	15	0	317	417	347	763	30	386	16	14	350	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	539	436	120	21	3	5	85	93	7	26	9	275	400	372	772	96	337	17	16	351	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	122	107	32	3	0	0	12	26	1	15	0	299	375	327	702	28	369	21	10	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	539	472	111	18	3	5	51	122	7	26	9	235	319	318	637	83	293	23	9	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	122	107	32	3	0	0	12	26	1	15	0	299	375	327	702	28	390	21	10	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	122	101	32	3	0	0	17	19	1	15	0	317	417	347	763	30	386	16	14	350	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	539	472	111	18	3	5	51	122	7	26	9	235	319	318	637	83	305	23	9	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	—	539	436	120	21	3	5	85	93	7	26	9	275	400	372	772	96	337	17	16	351	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	122	108	32	3	0	0	12	26	1	15	0	296	375	324	699	28	369	21	10	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	539	476	111	18	3	5	51	122	7	26	9	233	319	315	634	82	293	23	9	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	122	108	32	3	0	0	12	26	1	15	0	296	375	324	699	28	369	21	10	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	539	476	111	18	3	5	51	122	7	26	9	233	319	315	634	82	293	23	9	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CWS	0%	545	484	113	21	3	6	51	117	5	14	4	231	312	320	632	89	291	21	9	289	82	-12	+1	+0	-3	+12	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	CWS	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	232	312	321	634	90	291	0	0	290	82	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CWS	30%	413	367	87	16	2	6	39	88	4	11	3	235	316	335	651	100	292	21	9	296	87	-7	+1	+0	-2	+9	0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	CWS	44%	518	459	109	20	3	8	49	110	5	14	4	237	318	345	663	108	292	21	9	301	90	-6	+1	+0	-3	+11	0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	CWS	51%	526	466	111	20	3	9	50	112	5	14	4	238	318	351	669	113	292	21	10	303	91	-6	+1	+0	-3	+11	0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	CWS	52%	525	466	110	20	2	9	49	113	5	13	4	237	317	351	668	114	291	22	9	302	91	-6	+1	+0	-3	+11	0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	CWS	53%	518	459	108	20	2	9	49	113	5	12	4	236	315	349	665	113	291	22	9	301	90	-6	+1	-1	-3	+11	0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	CWS	53%	460	410	96	18	2	8	43	102	4	10	3	233	313	343	655	109	289	22	9	297	87	-7	+1	-1	-3	+10	-0.0
2034	30	MLB MLE	CWS	52%	450	401	93	17	2	7	42	101	4	9	3	230	309	335	644	104	287	22	9	292	84	-9	+1	-2	-3	+10	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	CWS	30%	125	111	27	5	1	2	12	27	1	3	1	236	316	337	654	102	292	22	10	297	87	-2	+0	+0	-1	+3	0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	CWS	44%	229	203	49	9	1	4	22	49	2	6	2	238	318	347	666	109	293	21	10	302	90	-3	+0	+0	-1	+5	0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	CWS	51%	267	237	56	10	1	5	25	57	3	7	2	239	319	353	672	114	293	21	9	304	91	-3	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	CWS	52%	275	244	58	11	1	5	26	59	3	7	2	238	318	353	671	115	292	21	9	304	91	-3	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	CWS	53%	276	245	58	11	1	5	26	60	3	6	2	237	316	351	668	115	291	22	9	302	90	-3	+0	-0	-2	+6	0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	CWS	53%	242	215	50	9	1	4	23	53	2	5	2	234	313	345	658	111	290	22	10	298	87	-4	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.0
2034	30	MLB CTX	CWS	52%	234	208	49	9	1	4	22	52	2	5	2	231	310	337	647	106	288	22	9	293	84	-4	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1648	1463	347	64	7	29	156	357	16	39	13	237	317	350	667	113	293	22	9	300	87	-22	+3	-2	-10	+36	0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	577	136	25	3	11	62	141	6	15	5	236	316	347	663	111	292	22	10	300	87	-9	+1	-1	-4	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	4281	3793	900	160	20	63	404	932	42	130	36	237	318	340	657	103	297	22	9	296	87	-51	+7	-4	-22	+78	0.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	137	24	3	10	61	142	6	20	5	238	317	342	659	104	297	22	9	296	87	-9	+1	-1	-4	+14	0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 539 PAwOBA .344 → .279 (−65)K% 17.3% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.25%	÷1.000	×1.310	—	—	22.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.58%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×1.012	9.46%
HBP% /PA	1.30%	—	×0.770	—	×1.012	1.01%
Singles /BIP	26.53%	÷1.000	×0.870	×1.008	×1.012	23.55%
Doubles /BIP	6.12%	÷1.000	×0.780	×1.008	×1.012	4.87%
Triples /BIP	0.87%	÷1.000	×0.850	×1.008	×1.012	0.76%
Home runs /BIP	1.46%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×1.012	1.30%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .344 → .279; ISO .096 → .085; BABIP .337 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 122 PAwOBA .345 → .307 (−38)K% 15.6% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.57%	÷1.009	×1.360	—	—	20.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.93%	÷1.030	×0.690	—	×1.015	9.48%
HBP% /PA	0.82%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.65%
Singles /BIP	35.37%	÷1.018	×0.920	×1.050	×1.015	34.08%
Doubles /BIP	3.66%	÷0.992	×0.830	×1.050	×1.015	3.26%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.091	×0.910	×1.050	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.853	×0.800	—	×1.015	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 118, K 102, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .345 → .307; ISO .030 → .027; BABIP .386 → .369. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#4Emil Brown'97-'09 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,508 PA	3.8	2,508	59	52	247*	314*	388*	-25	+8	3.5	4.0
/162	664	16	14	-6.6	+2.1	0.9	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	2.5	1,650	27	40	236	313	347	-10	+0	1.6	1.6
/162	664	11	16	-4.0	+0.0	0.7	pk7: 2
#5Greg Briley'88-'93 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,670 PA	2.5	1,670	29	65	251*	309*	399*	-17	-4	0.9	0.9
/162	664	12	26	-6.8	-1.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Eric Owens'95-'03 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,576 PA	3.9	2,576	26	126	253*	303*	334*	-18	+1	-0.9	0.4
/162	664	7	32	-4.5	+0.2	-0.2	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ely Brown (OGILVIE)	23	50→55	33→38	58→63	59	229/309/317	88	291	2	6	21%	9%	82	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Hoy Park 2019 · A	23	46→52	39→45	55	51	220/302/306	86	289	6	17	25%	10%	76	-0.4	234/313/331	97	308	7	16	24%	10%	85	+0.2	217/305/329	112	291	12	18	27%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Jose Constanza 2007 · A	23	55→64	37→40	58→60	51	257/325/335	78	331	3	22	22%	9%	90	+0.6	255/305/319	64	319	2	27	19%	7%	78	-0.3	288/334/346	58	335	2	37	14%	6%	91	+0.6
✕Kyle Mottice 2019 · A	23	49	35→30	58→55	54	226/330/288	62	269	2	18	15%	9%	84	+0.1	231/325/290	59	283	2	18	17%	8%	82	-0.0	240/333/283	43	295	0	25	16%	7%	79	-0.1
✕Leon Johnson 2008 · A	23	48	40	58→60	50	227/300/324	96	299	6	22	24%	9%	78	-0.3	217/281/294	77	280	5	17	23%	7%	65	-1.2	198/260/219	21	246	0	22	18%	6%	36	-0.7
✕Evan Frey 2009 · A	23	56→59	37→40	56→55	50	260/320/342	82	319	4	19	19%	8%	89	+0.5	250/310/320	70	311	2	22	18%	7%	80	-0.1	246/309/311	64	308	1	24	19%	8%	76	-0.4
●Jakob Marsee 2023 · A	22	44→49	42→45	58→60	54	211/313/323	113	290	8	21	28%	12%	85	+0.2	220/320/345	125	277	13	33	24%	11%	93	+0.8	217/321/350	133	273	12	37	23%	11%	92	+0.8
✕Logan Watkins 2013 · AA	23	52→54	40→45	57→55	48	244/310/345	101	314	6	17	23%	8%	87	+0.4	223/282/320	97	298	7	18	26%	7%	71	-0.8	221/277/290	70	283	3	17	22%	6%	60	-0.7
✕Nate Furman 2024 · A	23	51→56	34→40	57→55	56	232/325/284	52	281	1	24	17%	10%	80	-0.1	256/335/354	98	305	9	18	18%	9%	99	+1.2	273/347/381	108	317	11	17	16%	9%	106	+0.9
✕Javi Vaz 2024 · AA	23	49→50	41→40	57→55	56	233/306/332	99	259	7	19	14%	9%	83	+0.1	221/297/309	88	250	7	19	14%	9%	74	-0.5	212/293/292	80	240	6	21	14%	9%	67	-0.7
✕Ryan Rogowski 2007 · A	23	48→46	40	59→55	52	227/298/329	101	275	6	19	19%	8%	79	-0.2	218/286/306	88	272	4	26	20%	8%	70	-0.9	213/284/298	85	264	4	31	19%	8%	65	-1.0
✕Joshua Howard 2006 · A	23	50	36→40	57→60	44	234/285/311	76	302	2	18	22%	6%	70	-0.9	226/300/291	65	315	3	20	26%	9%	71	-0.8	220/303/270	50	311	2	23	27%	10%	65	-0.6
✕Thomas Coyle 2014 · A	23	50→51	40	58→55	53	234/310/335	101	292	6	21	21%	10%	84	+0.2	210/277/301	91	291	6	20	28%	8%	65	-1.2	193/260/279	86	274	6	22	30%	8%	51	-1.4
✕Chandler Simpson 2023 · A	22	48→58	38→30	56→70	48	226/293/312	85	299	4	17	24%	8%	73	-0.6	267/311/317	50	307	1	59	12%	6%	80	-0.2	302/334/348	46	335	0	63	9%	5%	94	+0.8
✕Carlos Mendoza 2022 · A	22	52→56	37→40	55	58	239/338/313	74	288	3	18	17%	11%	91	+0.7	238/338/308	70	305	3	14	20%	11%	91	+0.6	246/335/334	88	300	7	18	19%	10%	93	+0.6
●Tristan Peters 2023 · AA	23	48→53	43→50	53→50	49	229/296/351	122	291	8	14	23%	8%	83	+0.1	231/299/350	119	288	9	12	22%	8%	84	+0.2	233/307/367	134	284	11	9	21%	8%	90	+0.5
●Sal Frelick 2022 · A	22	53→63	40→45	56→55	49	250/311/350	101	314	7	17	22%	8%	88	+0.5	269/331/377	108	313	8	19	15%	8%	102	+1.5	271/336/373	101	313	6	20	15%	8%	101	+1.2
✕Alden Carrithers 2009 · A	24	49→59	39→30	56→55	53	231/319/319	88	287	6	18	20%	10%	86	+0.3	255/327/318	63	307	2	15	16%	9%	87	+0.4	271/344/325	54	313	1	17	12%	9%	92	+0.5
✕Matt Angle 2009 · A	23	53→57	38→40	54→60	49	247/312/329	82	311	4	19	21%	8%	84	+0.1	253/308/314	61	314	3	26	19%	7%	78	-0.3	254/310/307	53	312	3	31	18%	7%	75	-0.4
✕Nicky Lopez 2017 · A	22	47→57	42→40	57→55	51	227/302/334	107	261	9	17	17%	8%	82	+0.0	255/308/340	85	288	5	13	13%	7%	84	+0.2	264/325/346	82	304	4	14	13%	8%	92	+0.6
●Brett Bateman 2024 · A	22	51→61	37→30	54→55	55	238/324/309	70	307	4	18	22%	11%	84	+0.2	252/333/313	61	337	3	21	23%	11%	88	+0.5	267/352/328	61	355	3	23	23%	11%	96	+0.8

Ely Brown

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps