Ely Brown — OGILVIE

Ely BrownOF Winston-Salem Dash

Age 22 L/L 6'0" / 190 lbs A+ HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION539 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†85

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .300 / .222

PA10

HR0

K%20

BB%10

BABIP305

ISO85

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 54 / POW 37

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT54

scouting grade only

POWER37

scouting grade only

EYE61

scouting grade only

SPEED63

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	122	101	32	3	0	0	17	19	1	15	0	317	417	347	763	30	386	16	14	350	123	+3	+3	—	—	+3	0.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	122	109	32	3	0	0	10	27	1	15	0	294	358	321	679	28	371	22	8	302	91	-1	+3	—	—	+3	0.4
2025	21	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	122	109	32	3	0	0	10	27	1	15	0	294	358	321	679	28	386	22	8	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	122	101	32	3	0	0	17	19	1	15	0	317	417	347	763	30	386	16	14	350	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	122	110	32	3	0	0	10	27	1	15	0	291	358	318	677	27	371	22	8	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	122	110	32	3	0	0	10	27	1	15	0	291	358	318	677	27	371	22	8	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	CWS	—	539	467	112	18	3	4	56	125	7	26	9	240	330	317	647	77	317	23	10	288	81	-12	+2	+0	-3	+12	-0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ RAW	CWS	—	539	436	120	21	3	5	85	93	7	26	9	275	400	372	772	96	337	17	16	351	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	22	A+ MLE	CWS	0%	10	9	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	222	300	222	522		304	20	10	294	85	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	22	A+ MLE	CWS	—	549	476	114	18	3	4	57	127	7	26	9	239	330	315	645	76	316	23	10	288	81	-12	+2	+0	-3	+12	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CWS	35%	581	511	122	21	3	7	59	128	6	16	5	239	325	333	657	94	303	22	10	301	90	-7	+1	+0	-3	+13	0.3
2028	24	MLB MLE	CWS	46%	609	537	130	22	3	10	61	133	6	17	5	242	326	350	676	108	303	22	10	308	95	-4	+1	+0	-4	+13	0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	CWS	52%	627	552	134	23	3	11	63	136	7	17	5	243	328	355	683	112	302	22	10	312	97	-2	+1	+0	-4	+14	0.9
2030	26	MLB MLE	CWS	54%	638	562	138	24	3	12	64	138	7	17	5	246	330	363	693	117	302	22	10	314	99	-1	+1	+0	-4	+14	1.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	CWS	54%	633	556	136	23	3	12	65	138	7	17	5	245	331	362	693	117	302	22	10	314	99	-1	+1	+0	-4	+14	1.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	CWS	54%	625	549	134	23	3	12	64	137	7	16	5	244	331	362	693	118	301	22	10	313	98	-2	+1	-1	-4	+14	0.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	CWS	53%	616	541	131	22	3	11	64	136	6	15	5	242	329	355	684	113	301	22	10	311	97	-2	+1	-1	-4	+13	0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	CWS	52%	605	531	129	22	3	11	63	135	6	14	4	243	330	358	688	115	300	22	10	308	95	-4	+1	-2	-4	+13	0.5
2035	31	MLB MLE	CWS	52%	594	521	124	21	3	10	62	134	6	13	4	238	326	347	673	109	297	23	10	304	92	-6	+1	-3	-4	+13	0.2
2036	32	MLB MLE	CWS	52%	410	361	85	14	2	7	42	94	4	9	3	235	322	343	665	108	294	23	10	299	88	-6	+1	-4	-2	+9	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	CWS	35%	201	177	43	7	1	3	20	44	2	6	2	243	327	345	671	102	303	22	10	295	90	-2	+0	+0	-1	+4	0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	CWS	46%	282	249	61	11	1	5	28	61	3	8	2	245	329	357	686	112	303	22	10	302	95	-2	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	CWS	52%	324	285	70	12	2	6	33	70	3	9	3	246	330	365	695	119	303	22	10	306	97	-1	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	CWS	54%	346	304	76	13	2	7	35	75	4	9	3	250	335	375	710	125	303	22	10	307	99	-1	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	CWS	54%	343	301	75	13	2	7	35	75	4	9	3	249	335	375	711	126	303	22	10	307	99	-1	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	CWS	54%	339	297	73	13	2	6	35	74	4	9	3	246	333	364	697	118	302	22	10	306	98	-1	+1	-0	-2	+7	0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	CWS	53%	327	287	70	12	2	6	34	72	3	8	3	244	330	362	693	118	301	22	10	305	97	-1	+0	-1	-2	+7	0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	CWS	52%	317	278	66	11	1	6	33	71	3	8	2	237	325	349	674	112	300	22	10	302	95	-2	+1	-1	-2	+7	0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	CWS	52%	309	271	64	11	1	5	32	70	3	7	2	236	324	339	663	103	298	23	10	298	92	-3	+1	-1	-2	+7	0.1
2036	32	MLB CTX	CWS	52%	212	186	43	7	1	3	22	49	2	5	1	231	319	328	647	97	295	23	10	292	88	-3	+1	-2	-1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3000	2635	641	110	15	54	307	661	31	78	24	243	329	358	687	115	303	22	10	303	95	-16	+6	-5	-18	+65	3.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	571	139	24	3	12	67	143	7	17	5	243	331	359	690	116	302	22	10	303	95	-4	+1	-1	-4	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	6070	5339	1297	218	29	103	618	1338	63	166	46	243	329	353	681	110	304	22	10	309	95	-34	+12	-10	-36	+129	6.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	572	138	23	3	11	66	143	7	18	5	241	327	350	677	108	302	22	10	309	95	-4	+1	-1	-4	+14	0.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Manuel Margotlast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,154 PA	4.8	3,154	56	94	254	307	380	-5	+27	8.4	8.8
/162	664	12	20	-1.1	+5.6	1.8	pk7: 9
#2Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#3Grégor Blancolast yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,301 PA	5.0	3,301	26	120	256	340	350	-9	-5	7.7	8.5
/162	664	5	24	-1.8	-1.0	1.5	pk7: 9
#4Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	3.5	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
/162	664	16	27	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	4.5	3,002	52	77	243	325	355	-18	+0	5.3	5.0
/162	664	12	17	-4.0	+0.0	1.2	pk7: 5
#5Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#6Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ely Brown (OGILVIE)	22	49→54	32→37	58→63	61	234/321/314	80	304	2	8	22%	10%	85	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chandler Simpson 2023 · A	22	49→59	38→30	56→70	48	228/294/313	86	300	4	17	24%	8%	74	-0.5	270/314/320	50	311	1	59	13%	6%	82	-0.0	303/337/348	46	336	0	63	10%	5%	93	+0.8
●Sal Frelick 2022 · A	22	52→60	40	56→55	48	248/308/348	100	311	7	17	22%	8%	87	+0.4	262/323/367	105	305	7	19	16%	7%	97	+1.1	262/330/356	94	300	7	20	14%	8%	95	+0.8
✕Carlos Mendoza 2022 · A	22	54→55	37→40	56→55	57	248/344/324	76	301	3	18	17%	11%	96	+1.0	237/340/308	71	308	3	14	21%	12%	91	+0.7	242/332/330	88	296	7	18	19%	9%	90	+0.5
●Maikel Garcia 2022 · A	22	50→58	39→50	58→60	50	236/300/327	91	298	5	22	21%	8%	79	-0.2	247/302/345	98	313	7	27	22%	7%	84	+0.1	261/321/393	132	295	10	24	15%	8%	100	+1.2
✕Cal Stevenson 2019 · A	22	57	39→45	59→60	63	265/358/366	102	307	4	16	14%	13%	109	+2.0	234/308/325	91	293	7	13	21%	10%	82	-0.0	239/332/352	113	308	9	30	23%	12%	96	+0.6
✕Nicky Lopez 2017 · A	22	47→57	42→40	57→55	51	229/304/337	108	264	10	17	17%	8%	84	+0.1	252/304/335	83	284	5	13	13%	6%	82	-0.0	264/325/345	82	303	4	14	13%	8%	90	+0.4
●Ezequiel Carrera 2009 · A	22	50→60	39→45	57→60	45	235/296/328	93	301	6	20	23%	7%	78	-0.3	261/321/335	74	329	3	25	20%	7%	88	+0.4	256/323/358	102	320	11	15	22%	8%	93	+0.5
✕Kyle Mottice 2019 · A	23	50	35→30	58→55	54	229/334/291	63	272	2	18	15%	9%	86	+0.3	232/327/292	60	284	2	18	17%	8%	83	+0.1	241/335/285	43	296	0	25	16%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Davis Bradshaw 2019 · A	21	52	37→40	59→50	45	244/300/322	78	309	3	20	21%	6%	78	-0.3	225/271/287	62	293	2	11	23%	4%	59	-1.7	271/324/338	67	344	3	10	21%	5%	87	+0.2
✕Saige Jenco 2017 · A	22	52	38→40	60→50	47	243/303/334	91	319	4	21	24%	8%	81	-0.1	214/287/300	86	312	4	13	30%	9%	68	-1.0	196/279/277	80	293	3	12	31%	10%	57	-0.8
✕Cory Harrilchak 2010 · A	22	52→55	38→45	57→50	50	246/300/333	87	283	4	15	15%	7%	80	-0.2	238/289/335	97	292	5	13	19%	6%	76	-0.4	233/286/333	100	287	5	13	19%	6%	73	-0.4
✕Jose Constanza 2007 · A	23	56→63	37→40	58→60	51	257/326/336	78	332	3	22	22%	9%	90	+0.6	254/304/318	64	318	2	27	19%	7%	78	-0.3	286/332/342	56	333	1	37	14%	6%	90	+0.5
✕Chris Pieters 2017 · A	22	48	39→45	54→55	49	226/307/315	88	296	6	17	24%	8%	80	-0.2	207/265/296	89	292	5	12	29%	6%	59	-1.7	197/253/289	92	277	5	13	29%	6%	51	-0.8
✕Leon Johnson 2008 · A	23	49	40	58→60	50	229/302/326	97	301	6	22	24%	9%	80	-0.2	218/282/296	78	282	5	17	23%	7%	65	-1.2	200/262/221	21	248	0	22	18%	6%	38	-0.7
✕Evan Frey 2009 · A	23	55→58	37→40	56→55	50	259/319/341	81	318	3	19	19%	8%	88	+0.5	248/307/317	69	308	2	22	18%	7%	79	-0.2	243/306/306	62	304	1	24	19%	7%	74	-0.5
●Garin Cecchini 2013 · A	22	53→63	39→45	59→55	45	250/306/346	96	325	5	27	24%	7%	85	+0.2	248/313/347	99	326	6	16	24%	8%	88	+0.5	238/304/329	91	314	6	13	24%	8%	78	-0.2
✕Yoel Yanqui 2018 · A	22	52	40	56→50	47	244/307/345	101	326	5	12	25%	8%	86	+0.3	229/282/318	89	316	6	11	27%	7%	70	-0.8	219/276/311	91	303	7	11	28%	7%	65	-0.8
✕Drew Cumberland 2010 · A	21	52	37→45	56→55	50	245/306/328	83	287	4	17	15%	7%	82	-0.0	264/308/386	122	315	10	18	19%	5%	95	+1.0	307/338/450	143	360	14	25	18%	3%	118	+1.5
●Ender Inciarte 2013 · A	22	52→62	37→45	56→60	48	242/290/325	82	288	2	22	16%	6%	74	-0.5	260/299/342	82	297	5	27	13%	5%	81	-0.1	294/343/394	100	328	7	19	12%	6%	106	+1.8
✕Joshua Howard 2006 · A	23	51	36→40	57→60	44	236/288/314	77	305	2	18	22%	6%	71	-0.8	226/300/291	65	315	3	20	26%	9%	71	-0.8	219/301/270	50	309	2	23	27%	10%	64	-0.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps