Nate Furman
2B Sacramento River Cats| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | AA/A+CLE | 227 | .294/.389/.438 | 7 | 10 | 94 | — | .259/.340/.367 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA/A+/ASF | 150 | .375/.493/.617 | 7 | 3 | 161 | — | .346/.439/.543 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAASF | 468 | .293/.382/.414 | 7 | 19 | 101 | — | .280/.346/.377 |
| 2026 | 25 | MLBSF | 39 | .125/.243/.125 | 0 | 0 | 10 | -0.2 | |
| 2027PROJ30% MLB | 26 | MLBSF | 46 | .259/.331/.352 | 1 | 2 | 98 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ42% MLB | 27 | MLBSF | 122 | .257/.329/.352 | 1 | 6 | 98 | 0.3 | |
| 2029PROJ49% MLB | 28 | MLBSF | 148 | .255/.326/.349 | 2 | 6 | 96 | 0.3 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | — | 266 | 225 | 51 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 35 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 227 | 341 | 267 | 608 | 40 | 267 | 13 | 11 | 290 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 175 | 128 | 42 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 19 | 7 | 27 | 3 | 328 | 488 | 375 | 863 | 47 | 375 | 11 | 20 | 399 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 51 | 40 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 125 | 300 | 200 | 500 | 75 | 156 | 16 | 16 | 248 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Lake County Captains | — | 176 | 154 | 52 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 31 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 338 | 415 | 500 | 915 | 162 | 388 | 18 | 10 | 406 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 39 | 31 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 387 | 486 | 484 | 970 | 97 | 522 | 21 | 15 | 414 | 147 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | — | 96 | 77 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 364 | 490 | 649 | 1.139 | 286 | 344 | 7 | 16 | 493 | 169 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A | San Jose Giants | — | 15 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 417 | 533 | 750 | 1.283 | 333 | 444 | 13 | 20 | 545 | 150 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | — | 39 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 243 | 125 | 368 | 182 | 26 | 13 | 182 | 10 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 468 | 399 | 117 | 25 | 1 | 7 | 52 | 55 | 5 | 19 | 5 | 293 | 382 | 414 | 795 | 120 | 322 | 12 | 11 | 351 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 39 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 243 | 125 | 368 | 182 | 26 | 13 | 182 | 10 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +1 | -0.2 | |||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 266 | 233 | 47 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 43 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 202 | 295 | 236 | 532 | 34 | 243 | 16 | 8 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 175 | 141 | 42 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 26 | 7 | 27 | 3 | 298 | 424 | 340 | 765 | 43 | 342 | 15 | 14 | 344 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 51 | 42 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 119 | 260 | 190 | 450 | 71 | 153 | 20 | 12 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 176 | 160 | 48 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 39 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 300 | 364 | 419 | 782 | 119 | 364 | 22 | 7 | 334 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 39 | 33 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 394 | 459 | 485 | 944 | 91 | 500 | 26 | 10 | 385 | 147 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ MLE | Eugene Emeralds | — | 96 | 81 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 321 | 427 | 543 | 970 | 222 | 309 | 9 | 11 | 418 | 169 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 15 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 385 | 467 | 692 | 1.159 | 308 | 361 | 20 | 13 | 390 | 150 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | San Francisco Giants | — | 39 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 243 | 125 | 368 | 182 | 26 | 13 | 184 | 10 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 468 | 414 | 116 | 23 | 1 | 5 | 37 | 66 | 5 | 19 | 5 | 280 | 346 | 377 | 723 | 97 | 311 | 14 | 8 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 441 | 374 | 89 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 46 | 70 | 16 | 37 | 5 | 238 | 346 | 275 | 622 | 37 | 289 | 16 | 10 | 284 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 441 | 353 | 93 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 65 | 54 | 16 | 37 | 5 | 263 | 399 | 306 | 705 | 42 | 307 | 12 | 15 | 333 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 227 | 202 | 53 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 48 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 262 | 341 | 371 | 712 | 109 | 322 | 21 | 8 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 227 | 194 | 57 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 39 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 294 | 389 | 438 | 828 | 144 | 338 | 17 | 11 | 371 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 150 | 127 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 339 | 432 | 535 | 968 | 197 | 370 | 14 | 11 | 407 | 161 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 150 | 120 | 45 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 375 | 493 | 617 | 1.110 | 242 | 396 | 11 | 16 | 477 | 161 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 507 | 446 | 120 | 23 | 1 | 5 | 42 | 76 | 5 | 19 | 5 | 269 | 339 | 359 | 697 | 90 | 311 | 15 | 8 | 308 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 507 | 431 | 121 | 25 | 1 | 7 | 57 | 65 | 5 | 19 | 5 | 281 | 371 | 392 | 763 | 111 | 313 | 13 | 11 | 338 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 441 | 376 | 89 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 46 | 70 | 16 | 37 | 5 | 237 | 346 | 274 | 620 | 37 | 282 | 16 | 10 | 284 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 227 | 201 | 53 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 48 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 264 | 341 | 373 | 714 | 109 | 317 | 21 | 8 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 150 | 128 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 336 | 432 | 531 | 964 | 195 | 364 | 14 | 11 | 407 | 161 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 507 | 455 | 120 | 23 | 1 | 5 | 42 | 76 | 5 | 19 | 5 | 264 | 339 | 352 | 690 | 88 | 301 | 15 | 8 | 308 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 227 | 201 | 53 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 48 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 264 | 341 | 373 | 714 | 109 | 317 | 21 | 8 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 150 | 128 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 336 | 432 | 531 | 964 | 195 | 364 | 14 | 11 | 407 | 161 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 507 | 455 | 120 | 23 | 1 | 5 | 42 | 76 | 5 | 19 | 5 | 264 | 339 | 352 | 690 | 88 | 301 | 15 | 8 | 308 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | SF | 30% | 380 | 341 | 90 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 62 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 263 | 334 | 359 | 693 | 96 | 307 | 16 | 8 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +2 | -1 | +1 | +8 | 0.5 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | SF | 30% | 46 | 42 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 259 | 331 | 352 | 683 | 93 | 303 | 17 | 9 | 309 | 98 | -0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | SF | 42% | 290 | 260 | 68 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 49 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 261 | 332 | 359 | 691 | 97 | 306 | 17 | 9 | 312 | 98 | -1 | +2 | -1 | +1 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB MLE | SF | 49% | 300 | 268 | 70 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 52 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 259 | 330 | 356 | 686 | 98 | 304 | 17 | 9 | 310 | 96 | -1 | +1 | -2 | +1 | +6 | 0.6 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB MLE | SF | 52% | 294 | 264 | 67 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 52 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 256 | 327 | 353 | 679 | 97 | 303 | 18 | 9 | 307 | 94 | -2 | +1 | -2 | +1 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB MLE | SF | 54% | 289 | 260 | 66 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 53 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 252 | 323 | 348 | 670 | 95 | 301 | 18 | 8 | 304 | 92 | -3 | +1 | -3 | +1 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB MLE | SF | 55% | 271 | 244 | 60 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 51 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 248 | 318 | 341 | 658 | 93 | 298 | 19 | 8 | 298 | 88 | -4 | +1 | -4 | +1 | +6 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | SF | 42% | 122 | 110 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 257 | 329 | 352 | 681 | 94 | 302 | 16 | 8 | 308 | 98 | -0 | +1 | -0 | +0 | +3 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB CTX | SF | 49% | 148 | 133 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 26 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 255 | 326 | 349 | 676 | 95 | 301 | 18 | 9 | 306 | 96 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +3 | 0.3 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB CTX | SF | 52% | 153 | 138 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 27 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 252 | 323 | 346 | 669 | 94 | 299 | 18 | 8 | 303 | 94 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB CTX | SF | 54% | 156 | 141 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 29 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 248 | 319 | 341 | 660 | 92 | 297 | 19 | 8 | 299 | 92 | -2 | +1 | -2 | +1 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB CTX | SF | 55% | 149 | 135 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 28 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 244 | 314 | 334 | 648 | 90 | 294 | 19 | 8 | 294 | 88 | -2 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +3 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 767 | 689 | 165 | 29 | 0 | 9 | 66 | 140 | 5 | 26 | 5 | 239 | 311 | 321 | 631 | 81 | 286 | 18 | 9 | 296 | 95 | -10 | +3 | -6 | +4 | +17 | 0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 584 | 141 | 25 | 0 | 8 | 56 | 119 | 4 | 22 | 4 | 241 | 312 | 325 | 637 | 84 | 289 | 18 | 9 | 296 | 95 | -8 | +3 | -5 | +4 | +14 | 0.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2924 | 2584 | 674 | 108 | 12 | 37 | 260 | 497 | 46 | 129 | 24 | 261 | 339 | 355 | 694 | 94 | 308 | 17 | 9 | 309 | 95 | -16 | +7 | -13 | +8 | +35 | 2.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 574 | 150 | 24 | 3 | 8 | 58 | 110 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 261 | 340 | 355 | 695 | 94 | 309 | 17 | 9 | 309 | 95 | -6 | +3 | -5 | +3 | +14 | 0.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAASacramento River Cats · 468 PAwOBA .346 → .318 (−28)K% 11.8% → 14.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.75% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 14.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 7.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.07% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.42% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.035 | ×1.033 | 24.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.035 | ×1.033 | 6.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.035 | ×1.033 | 0.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.03% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 1.47% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.
Result: wOBA .346 → .318; ISO .120 → .103; BABIP .322 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Eugene Emeralds · 96 PAwOBA .480 → .418 (−62)K% 7.3% → 9.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 7.29% | ÷1.070 | ×1.350 | — | — | 9.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.62% | ÷0.950 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 11.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.17% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 3.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.71% | ÷1.011 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 24.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.71% | ÷1.048 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 4.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.909 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.57% | ÷0.980 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 7.17% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 102, 2B 110, 3B 82, K 114, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .480 → .418; ISO .286 → .248; BABIP .344 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 39 PAwOBA .404 → .385 (−19)K% 20.5% → 24.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.51% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.38% | ÷0.962 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 11.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 43.48% | ÷1.004 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.012 | 42.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.992 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 3.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.012 | 3.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.183 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 101, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 104, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .404 → .385; ISO .097 → .089; BABIP .522 → .500. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ASan Jose Giants · 15 PAwOBA .531 → .390 (−141)K% 13.3% → 18.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.33% | ÷0.962 | ×1.360 | — | — | 18.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.055 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 12.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷1.007 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.980 | 26.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.138 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.980 | 7.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.902 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.358 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 5.77% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 172, 1B 101, 2B 128, 3B 80, K 92, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .531 → .390; ISO .333 → .209; BABIP .444 → .361. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Lake County Captains · 176 PAwOBA .396 → .334 (−61)K% 17.6% → 21.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.61% | ÷1.023 | ×1.270 | — | — | 21.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.23% | ÷0.999 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 7.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.70% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.15% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×1.045 | ×0.998 | 32.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.63% | ÷0.978 | ×0.810 | ×1.045 | ×0.998 | 1.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.81% | ÷1.023 | ×0.850 | ×1.045 | ×0.998 | 0.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.69% | ÷1.190 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.82% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 99, 2B 96, 3B 105, K 105, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.
Result: wOBA .396 → .334; ISO .162 → .113; BABIP .388 → .364. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAkron RubberDucks · 51 PAwOBA .243 → .212 (−31)K% 15.7% → 19.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.69% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.69% | ÷0.987 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 11.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.92% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 3.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 9.38% | ÷0.993 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.027 | 9.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.12% | ÷0.944 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.027 | 2.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.12% | ÷1.023 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.027 | 2.98% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.966 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 99, 2B 89, 3B 105, K 96, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .243 → .212; ISO .075 → .074; BABIP .156 → .153. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Lake County Captains · 266 PAwOBA .284 → .245 (−39)K% 13.2% → 16.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.16% | ÷1.028 | ×1.270 | — | — | 16.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.28% | ÷0.971 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 8.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.38% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 2.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.63% | ÷1.011 | ×0.920 | ×0.994 | ×1.012 | 20.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.68% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.994 | ×1.012 | 3.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.53% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.994 | ×1.012 | 0.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.060 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 102, 2B 80, 3B 130, K 106, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .284 → .245; ISO .040 → .035; BABIP .267 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ALynchburg Hillcats · 175 PAwOBA .397 → .344 (−53)K% 10.9% → 15.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.86% | ÷0.981 | ×1.360 | — | — | 15.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.020 | ×0.690 | — | — | 13.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 3.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.94% | ÷0.992 | ×0.920 | ×0.986 | — | 31.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.67% | ÷0.947 | ×0.830 | ×0.986 | — | 3.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.92% | ÷0.982 | ×0.910 | ×0.986 | — | 0.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.017 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 98, 2B 89, 3B 96, K 96, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .397 → .344; ISO .047 → .045; BABIP .375 → .342. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).