Carlos Mendoza — OGILVIE

Carlos Mendoza2B Buffalo Bisons

Age 26 L/R 5'6" / 165 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION302 act + 201 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†86

AVG/OBP/SLG.231 / .331 / .323

PA201

HR3

SB5

K%19

BB%11

BABIP277

ISO92

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT60

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$7M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$17M	+$15M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	19	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	300	258	57	4	5	0	28	40	10	25	14	221	321	275	596	54	260	13	9	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	300	240	71	6	7	0	46	28	10	25	14	296	429	379	808	83	333	9	15	370	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	ROK	3 teams	—	212	176	50	6	2	1	28	36	7	16	1	284	403	358	761	74	350	17	13	344	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	ROK	3 teams	—	212	161	52	8	2	1	43	29	7	16	1	323	483	416	900	93	386	14	20	414	175	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	3 teams	—	427	352	81	14	2	1	59	91	9	12	8	230	355	290	645	60	304	21	14	297	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	3 teams	—	427	332	88	13	3	2	79	61	9	12	8	265	419	340	759	75	316	14	19	353	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+	2 teams	—	273	225	54	7	1	1	34	58	5	8	6	240	352	293	646	53	314	21	12	285	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+	2 teams	—	273	211	53	7	1	1	48	43	5	8	6	251	402	308	710	57	306	16	18	328	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	3 teams	—	655	573	144	18	8	7	51	149	22	36	6	251	336	347	683	96	327	23	8	300	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	3 teams	—	655	542	142	23	7	6	82	112	22	36	6	262	381	363	744	101	319	17	13	340	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA	3 teams	—	586	509	140	20	3	10	53	76	13	13	8	275	358	385	743	110	302	13	9	326	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA	3 teams	—	586	488	141	26	4	9	74	63	13	13	8	289	397	414	810	125	312	11	13	362	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	26	AAA	TOR	—	302	255	54	6	0	4	38	58	5	7	6	212	326	282	608	71	255	19	13	286	77	-8	-1	+0	+1	+9	0.1
YTD	26	AAA	TOR	—	302	238	55	7	0	5	55	48	5	7	6	231	386	324	709	92	266	16	18	332	112	+4	-1	+0	+1	+9	1.3
ROS	26	AAA	TOR	10%	201	173	40	5	1	3	22	38	4	5	3	231	331	323	654	92	276	19	11	298	86	-3	-0	+0	+1	+6	0.3
ROS	26	MLB	TOR	10%	20	18	4	1	0	0	2	4	0	1	0	222	300	278	578	56	278	20	10	284	76	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
FULL	26	AAA	TOR	—	322	273	58	7	0	4	40	62	5	8	6	212	324	282	606	70	257	19	12	286	77	-8	-1	+0	+1	+9	0.1
TOT	26	AAA	TOR	—	503	428	94	11	1	7	60	96	9	12	9	219	328	299	627	79	264	19	12	291	81	-11	-1	+0	+2	+14	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	TOR	38%	525	454	106	15	2	8	56	100	10	13	7	233	331	328	659	95	280	19	11	304	91	-5	-0	+0	+2	+15	1.1
2028	28	MLB	TOR	52%	546	473	111	16	2	9	58	106	10	13	7	235	331	334	665	99	281	19	11	305	91	-5	-0	-1	+2	+15	1.1
2029	29	MLB	TOR	57%	556	483	113	17	2	9	58	110	10	12	6	234	328	333	662	99	281	20	10	304	91	-6	+0	-1	+2	+16	1.1
2030	30	MLB	TOR	60%	557	484	112	17	2	9	58	112	10	11	6	231	326	331	657	99	280	20	10	301	89	-7	-0	-2	+2	+16	0.9
2027	27	MLB	TOR	38%	197	170	41	6	1	3	21	38	4	5	3	241	338	341	680	100	282	19	11	291	81	-4	-0	+0	+1	+6	0.2
2028	28	MLB	TOR	52%	284	247	58	8	1	5	30	55	5	7	3	235	330	336	666	101	282	19	11	292	82	-6	+0	-0	+1	+8	0.3
2029	29	MLB	TOR	57%	318	276	64	9	1	5	33	63	6	7	4	232	327	326	653	94	282	20	10	292	81	-7	-0	-1	+1	+9	0.2
2030	30	MLB	TOR	60%	335	291	68	10	1	6	35	68	6	7	3	234	328	337	665	103	281	20	10	289	80	-8	+0	-1	+1	+9	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1154	1002	235	34	4	19	121	228	21	27	13	235	330	333	663	99	284	20	10	291	81	-25	+0	-2	+4	+33	1.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	564	132	19	2	11	68	128	12	15	7	234	329	333	662	99	283	20	10	291	81	-14	+0	-1	+2	+18	0.6
Career	—			—	4838	4160	1008	139	30	58	505	916	110	164	72	242	340	332	672	90	295	19	10	304	90	-52	+4	-4	+17	+137	10.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	559	136	19	4	8	68	123	15	22	10	243	341	335	676	91	296	19	10	304	90	-7	+0	-1	+2	+18	1.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	19	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	300	240	71	6	7	0	46	28	10	25	14	296	429	379	808	83	333	9	15	370	141	+14	-1	—	—	+8	2.2
2021	21	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	90	73	21	4	1	0	14	13	3	3	0	288	422	370	792	82	350	14	16	369	140	+4	+1	—	—	+3	0.7
2021	21	ROK	FCL Tigers East	—	95	65	27	2	1	1	25	9	4	12	0	415	596	523	1.119	108	464	9	26	500	240	+15	+2	—	—	+3	2.1
2021	21	INTL	Caribes de Anzoategui	—	27	23	4	2	0	0	4	7	0	1	1	174	296	261	557	87	250	26	15	266	61	-1	-0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2022	22	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	213	162	40	4	2	0	37	30	7	4	5	247	408	296	704	49	296	14	17	329	110	+2	-1	—	—	+6	0.7
2022	22	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	189	146	42	8	1	2	41	28	2	8	3	288	450	397	847	110	345	15	22	392	158	+12	+0	—	—	+5	1.9
2022	22	INTL	Caribes de Anzoategui	—	25	24	6	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	250	280	292	572	42	286	12	4	260	57	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2023	23	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	244	191	49	7	1	0	40	39	5	8	5	257	398	304	702	47	318	16	16	325	107	+2	-0	—	—	+7	0.9
2023	23	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	29	20	4	0	0	1	8	4	0	0	1	200	429	350	779	150	188	14	28	358	132	+1	-0	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	24	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	515	420	113	17	6	5	70	89	18	32	5	269	396	374	769	105	329	17	14	351	127	+16	+4	—	—	+15	3.5
2024	24	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	27	23	4	0	0	0	2	7	2	1	0	174	296	174	470		250	26	7	240	42	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2024	24	INTL	Caribes de Anzoategui	—	113	99	25	6	1	1	10	16	2	3	1	253	333	364	697	111	293	14	9	312	97	-0	+0	—	—	+3	0.3
2025	25	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	57	52	17	4	1	2	2	9	1	7	2	327	364	558	921	231	349	16	4	388	155	+4	+1	—	—	+2	0.6
2025	25	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	350	283	79	12	1	5	51	36	9	5	4	279	405	382	787	102	301	10	15	357	131	+12	-1	—	—	+10	2.2
2025	25	INTL	Caribes de Anzoategui	—	179	153	45	10	2	2	21	18	3	1	2	294	390	425	815	131	321	10	12	364	137	+7	-1	—	—	+5	1.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Royce Claytonlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,920 PA	8	3,920	54	70	256	311	365	+18	+17	10.1	10.0
	/162	664	9	12	256	311	365	+3.1	+2.9	1.7	pk7: 10
#2Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	6	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
	/162	664	16	27	245	323	394	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
#3Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#4Desi Relafordlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,443 PA	6	2,443	34	64	246	329	356	-1	-7	5.1	5.1
	/162	664	9	17	246	329	356	-0.3	-1.8	1.4	pk7: 5
#5Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#6Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	1,159	19	26	234	326	335	+4	+2	2.3	2.3
	/162	664	11	15	234	326	335	+2.4	+1.1	1.3	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carlos Mendoza (OGILVIE)	26	60	35	45	60	219/328/299	79	264	7	12	19%	12%	81	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Greg Garcia 2017 · MLB	27	53→54	39→40	47→50	52	247/329/334	87	313	5	10	21%	10%	91	+1.1	244/341/339	95	309	7	7	21%	11%	98	+1.6	242/351/334	92	309	6	3	21%	13%	98	+0.8
✕Boog Powell 2019 · MLB	26	52→57	41→45	45→50	51	251/315/347	96	305	9	15	20%	8%	88	+0.9	219/289/329	110	308	10	16	30%	9%	72	-0.2	201/276/307	106	293	10	18	32%	9%	59	-0.7
✕Jake Elmore 2014 · MLB	27	54→62	39→40	52→55	53	253/323/345	91	298	5	21	16%	8%	91	+1.1	235/306/301	66	282	4	16	17%	9%	72	-0.2	240/302/310	70	291	3	10	18%	7%	71	-0.2
✕Luis Guillorme 2021 · MLB	26	53→62	43→40	46→45	54	257/332/371	114	307	10	9	19%	10%	102	+1.8	253/337/339	86	302	6	5	17%	11%	95	+1.4	250/339/317	67	297	4	1	16%	11%	86	+0.3
●Adam Frazier 2018 · MLB	26	60→67	41→50	49→50	52	286/343/396	110	321	6	15	13%	7%	112	+2.6	266/327/405	139	297	11	7	14%	7%	108	+2.3	285/346/410	126	315	9	6	12%	7%	113	+2.2
✕Alden Carrithers 2011 · AA	26	56→62	36→40	48→55	57	259/340/322	63	311	4	14	17%	10%	92	+1.2	262/328/330	68	303	3	18	13%	9%	89	+0.9	268/332/335	67	304	2	22	12%	8%	89	+0.5
✕Tim Fedroff 2013 · AAA	26	56→62	41→40	49→50	49	267/323/373	106	324	7	10	19%	7%	98	+1.6	231/297/309	78	305	6	13	24%	8%	70	-0.3	217/289/272	56	293	4	14	25%	9%	55	-1.2
✕Callix Crabbe 2009 · MLB	26	50→53	39→40	50→55	53	238/311/331	93	284	6	18	18%	9%	82	+0.5	208/277/300	92	249	7	15	18%	8%	60	-1.0	198/266/288	90	232	8	16	18%	8%	50	-1.0
✕Cory Sullivan 2006 · MLB	26	56→60	41→45	53→50	48	270/324/371	101	328	8	15	20%	7%	98	+1.6	255/306/364	109	322	6	13	21%	7%	88	+0.9	252/301/360	108	318	5	13	21%	6%	80	+0.3
✕Brock Holt 2014 · MLB	26	55→64	37→45	47→50	48	261/312/332	71	311	3	12	17%	7%	82	+0.5	261/318/356	95	319	5	13	18%	7%	92	+1.2	264/327/367	102	323	5	12	19%	8%	96	+1.2
✕Russ Adams 2007 · MLB	26	51→53	42→45	48→45	53	244/306/356	112	270	8	9	13%	8%	86	+0.8	230/286/348	118	265	12	8	17%	7%	76	+0.1	220/274/346	126	257	14	7	20%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Lastings Milledge 2011 · MLB	26	56→59	42→50	48→55	48	268/323/378	109	311	9	15	17%	6%	99	+1.7	252/308/366	114	284	11	19	15%	7%	90	+1.0	251/306/354	102	278	11	27	14%	6%	82	+0.4
●Nicky Lopez 2021 · MLB	26	52→62	40	43→55	51	245/301/337	93	277	6	9	14%	7%	79	+0.3	255/319/331	76	298	3	16	14%	8%	85	+0.7	256/324/322	66	299	1	19	14%	8%	83	+0.4
✕Jim Negrych 2011 · AAA	26	55→65	39→40	47→50	49	262/321/352	90	319	5	10	19%	8%	92	+1.2	262/317/361	99	309	8	9	17%	7%	92	+1.2	271/324/366	96	314	8	7	16%	7%	94	+0.9
✕Ramón Flores 2018 · MLB	26	52→58	42→45	51→50	53	252/323/356	104	299	9	10	18%	9%	94	+1.3	235/299/339	104	290	10	10	21%	8%	79	+0.3	217/277/297	79	272	8	6	22%	7%	57	-0.4
●Eric Sogard 2012 · MLB	26	53→57	41→45	49→55	52	255/313/358	103	284	8	13	13%	7%	89	+1.0	252/309/354	102	283	8	17	13%	7%	87	+0.8	250/336/373	123	285	11	10	15%	11%	100	+1.1
✕Johnny Giavotella 2013 · MLB	26	57→61	42→45	49→50	47	274/319/381	107	313	8	10	15%	6%	98	+1.6	253/302/358	105	288	8	11	14%	6%	85	+0.7	265/310/377	112	292	8	5	12%	6%	92	+0.8
✕Terrin Vavra 2023 · MLB	26	55→44	42→45	49→50	51	259/339/371	112	335	7	11	23%	9%	105	+2.1	246/313/348	102	325	8	10	25%	8%	88	+0.9	241/304/328	87	325	6	9	26%	7%	74	-0.0
✕Jesus Arredondo 2017 · AAA	26	52→59	39→50	47→50	46	247/294/333	86	295	6	18	18%	6%	75	-0.0	247/298/391	144	287	15	12	19%	6%	93	+1.3	248/301/410	162	280	18	9	19%	7%	97	+1.1
✕Miles Mastrobuoni 2022 · AAA	26	54→57	41→45	45→60	45	254/308/355	101	338	8	11	26%	7%	86	+0.8	242/302/352	110	306	10	22	22%	8%	84	+0.6	233/297/335	102	288	9	27	21%	8%	74	-0.1