Terrin Vavra — OGILVIE

Terrin Vavra2B Norfolk Tides

Age 29 L/R 5'11" / 185 lbs AAA HR +8% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 250 proj PA

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.231 / .295 / .319

PA250

HR3

K%25

BB%7

ISO89

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2025

CONTACT50

Whiff%

4511.5%

xwOBA

590.319

POWER35

Barrel%

102.7

Avg EV

1986.7

Bat Spd

1065.2

EYE55

Chase%

4931.9%

SPEED50

Sprint

6027.9

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-2	$0.2M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	22	A	Asheville Tourists	—	453	405	89	19	1	6	31	89	2	18	9	220	279	316	595	96	260	20	7	258	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A	Asheville Tourists	—	453	374	119	32	1	10	62	62	2	18	9	318	418	489	907	171	350	14	14	391	157	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA	2 teams	—	208	182	41	11	2	3	20	64	5	6	2	225	319	357	676	132	330	31	10	295	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA	2 teams	—	208	170	45	12	2	5	32	48	5	6	2	265	396	447	843	182	342	23	15	378	147	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA	3 teams	—	332	289	85	18	2	3	33	65	6	6	2	294	378	401	779	107	366	20	10	338	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA	3 teams	—	332	278	82	19	2	3	44	58	6	6	2	295	402	410	813	115	359	17	13	366	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA	2 teams	—	124	113	30	3	1	2	7	28	2	3	1	265	320	363	683	97	337	23	6	292	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA	2 teams	—	124	112	33	4	1	2	8	25	2	3	1	295	352	402	754	107	365	20	6	335	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA	2 teams	—	262	235	55	6	4	4	21	73	3	2	3	234	305	345	650	111	321	28	8	281	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA	2 teams	—	262	226	54	7	3	4	30	68	3	2	3	239	336	350	685	111	323	26	11	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	298	266	67	12	1	2	21	74	2	7	1	252	311	327	638	75	340	25	7	278	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	298	253	65	13	1	2	34	58	2	7	1	257	349	340	689	83	325	19	11	309	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	MLB	BAL	—	250	227	53	8	2	3	19	63	2	4	1	233	298	326	624	93	306	25	8	281	73	-8	+0	-0	-3	+7	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	BAL	27%	332	301	69	11	2	4	25	83	3	5	1	229	295	319	614	90	304	25	8	282	74	-10	+1	-2	-4	+9	-0.5
2027	30	MLB	BAL	27%	91	83	19	3	1	1	7	23	1	1	0	229	297	325	622	96	308	25	8	279	72	-3	+0	-1	-1	+3	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	250	221	54	5	2	2	24	54	1	2	1	244	321	312	633	68	311	22	10	286	77	-6	+0	-2	-1	+7	-0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	140	13	5	5	62	140	3	5	3	243	320	310	630	66	310	22	10	286	77	-17	-0	-6	-3	+18	-0.8
Career	—			—	2259	2018	489	88	15	27	177	539	25	51	20	242	311	341	652	99	314	24	8	287	77	-58	+2	-4	-15	+64	-1.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	140	25	4	8	51	155	7	15	6	241	310	339	649	98	312	24	8	287	77	-17	+1	-1	-4	+18	-0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	22	A	Asheville Tourists	—	453	374	119	32	1	10	62	62	2	18	9	318	418	489	907	171	350	14	14	391	157	+29	+0	—	—	+13	4.3
2021	24	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	184	149	37	10	1	5	29	42	5	6	1	248	388	430	818	181	314	23	16	368	140	+8	+1	—	—	+5	1.5
2021	24	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	24	21	8	2	1	0	3	6	0	0	1	381	458	571	1.030	190	533	25	12	450	203	+3	-0	—	—	+1	0.3
2022	25	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	103	89	23	2	1	1	12	19	0	0	1	258	347	337	684	79	310	18	12	309	95	-1	-0	-0	+1	+3	0.3
2022	25	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	208	173	56	14	1	2	28	36	6	5	1	324	435	451	886	127	400	17	13	399	163	+15	+1	—	—	+6	2.2
2022	25	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	21	16	3	3	0	0	4	3	0	1	0	188	350	375	725	188	214	14	19	316	100	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2023	26	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	56	49	12	0	0	0	5	12	0	1	0	245	315	245	560		324	21	9	256	54	-3	+0	-2	-1	+2	-0.4
2023	26	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	68	63	21	4	1	2	3	13	2	2	1	333	382	524	906	190	396	19	4	399	164	+5	+0	—	—	+2	0.7
2024	27	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	237	202	47	5	3	4	29	62	3	2	3	233	338	347	684	114	314	26	12	311	96	-1	-1	—	—	+7	0.5
2024	27	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	25	24	7	2	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	292	320	375	695	83	389	24	4	312	97	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2025	28	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	298	253	65	13	1	2	34	58	2	7	1	257	349	340	689	83	325	19	11	309	94	-2	+1	—	—	+8	0.8
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	159	138	35	2	1	1	17	31	0	1	1	254	335	304	640	51	315	19	11	290	80	-4	-0	-2	-0	+5	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ehire Adrianzalast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,519 PA	9	1,519	20	19	240	310	353	+10	+13	4.0	4.4
	/162	664	9	8	240	310	353	+4.2	+5.5	1.8	pk7: 5
#2Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#3Abraham O. Nunezlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,389 PA	8	2,389	17	24	246	315	322	+2	+9	2.5	2.7
	/162	664	5	7	246	315	322	+0.5	+2.5	0.7	pk7: 3
#4Chris Woodwardlast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,835 PA	9	1,835	33	9	242	299	370	+2	-0	2.2	2.7
	/162	664	12	3	242	299	370	+0.6	-0.0	0.8	pk7: 3
#5Gary Bennettlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,703 PA	8	1,703	20	6	239	301	327	+17	+6	2.6	2.6
	/162	664	8	2	239	301	327	+6.7	+2.4	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Einar Díazlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,763 PA	6	1,763	16	10	248	297	342	+5	+12	2.4	2.4
#6Einar Díazlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,763 PA	/162	664	6	4	248	297	342	+1.9	+4.7	0.9	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	275	2	3	243	314	311	-2	-1	-0.1	-0.1
	/162	664	6	7	243	314	311	-4.0	-2.7	-0.2	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Terrin Vavra (OGILVIE)	29	50	35	50	55	231/295/319	88	306	3	4	25%	7%	73	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Mitch Canham 2014 · AAA	29	47→50	38→45	49→45	47	221/284/314	93	287	4	12	24%	8%	66	-0.6	219/274/318	99	282	7	13	24%	7%	63	-0.8	180/221/229	49	225	5	12	22%	5%	15	-0.8
✕Logan Watkins 2019 · AAA	29	46→52	37→40	47→55	45	220/276/295	76	279	4	12	22%	6%	58	-1.2	232/297/349	117	294	11	17	24%	7%	82	+0.5	236/310/351	115	294	11	28	22%	8%	84	+0.2
✕Omar Quintanilla 2011 · MLB	29	45→55	40→45	47→45	46	216/276/308	92	283	6	7	25%	7%	62	-0.9	229/287/342	113	284	10	6	22%	7%	75	-0.0	233/299/338	105	287	9	3	21%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Peter Bergeron 2007 · MLB	29	50→58	42→40	44→50	45	240/289/341	101	303	9	11	24%	6%	75	-0.0	229/279/329	100	290	8	11	23%	6%	68	-0.5	223/261/274	51	283	0	8	20%	5%	43	-0.4
✕Brad Coon 2012 · AAA	29	47→57	37→40	52→60	49	223/289/301	78	286	4	16	22%	8%	66	-0.6	214/289/296	82	280	5	16	23%	9%	64	-0.8	199/283/258	58	262	3	18	22%	10%	50	-1.0
✕Sergio Perez 2019 · AAA	29	49	38→40	47→50	44	233/279/313	80	292	4	11	21%	6%	63	-0.8	244/277/358	114	296	11	8	21%	4%	75	-0.0	267/287/369	102	318	10	2	19%	2%	82	+0.2
✕Blake Davis 2013 · MLB	29	47→54	40	49→50	42	227/262/323	96	275	7	9	20%	4%	59	-1.1	215/247/300	85	275	5	9	23%	4%	46	-2.0	205/233/275	71	267	3	7	24%	3%	30	-1.6
✕Wilmer Difo 2021 · MLB	29	47→54	41→45	49→55	49	228/293/328	100	286	9	14	23%	8%	74	-0.1	229/284/334	105	285	10	11	22%	7%	72	-0.2	218/274/313	95	269	9	15	22%	7%	60	-0.5
✕Drew Meyer 2010 · AAA	28	51→57	39→40	49→50	48	244/297/330	87	297	5	7	19%	7%	76	+0.0	226/281/322	96	286	7	8	22%	7%	67	-0.5	198/257/278	80	253	5	7	23%	7%	43	-1.1
✕Taylor Kohlwey 2023 · AAA	29	48→55	40→45	48→50	48	228/297/323	95	294	8	10	24%	8%	75	-0.0	227/307/336	109	294	9	12	24%	9%	82	+0.5	237/332/353	115	300	10	15	22%	11%	95	+1.2
✕Nate Orf 2019 · MLB	29	46→53	40→45	53→50	47	220/295/315	95	274	7	15	22%	7%	72	-0.2	222/308/332	110	272	11	14	21%	8%	83	+0.6	213/311/314	102	255	11	11	20%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Jose Salazar 2013 · AAA	29	48	39→40	49→45	41	231/266/321	91	287	6	9	22%	5%	59	-1.1	222/258/297	75	287	6	6	24%	4%	50	-1.8	217/251/266	49	280	3	2	23%	4%	35	-1.1
✕Yonathan Daza 2022 · MLB	28	51→56	39→40	47→50	46	243/291/325	82	293	6	8	19%	6%	72	-0.2	244/295/324	80	291	5	6	17%	6%	73	-0.1	250/300/318	69	296	3	4	16%	5%	72	-0.1
✕Elian Herrera 2014 · MLB	29	49→55	39→40	52→60	45	234/293/318	84	306	6	18	24%	7%	71	-0.3	242/287/339	97	312	8	12	24%	6%	73	-0.1	247/288/343	96	319	7	10	24%	5%	71	-0.2
✕Frank Moore 2007 · AA	29	48→52	39→45	48→50	42	228/279/321	92	308	6	11	27%	6%	66	-0.6	220/270/323	103	301	9	8	28%	6%	63	-0.9	212/257/311	100	290	8	3	29%	6%	51	-0.7
✕Matt Angle 2015 · AAA	29	44→54	38→40	53→60	40	209/266/287	79	297	6	16	30%	6%	53	-1.5	208/270/288	80	305	6	19	31%	7%	54	-1.4	185/263/221	36	290	0	33	33%	9%	31	-1.0
✕Christian Herrera 2011 · AAA	29	48	40	47→45	39	232/274/322	90	303	7	9	25%	4%	64	-0.8	218/270/309	91	296	7	11	28%	5%	59	-1.1	205/264/278	73	281	5	11	27%	5%	47	-0.6
✕Brian Dinkelman 2013 · MLB	29	47→55	39→45	46→50	44	226/276/316	90	278	6	9	21%	5%	63	-0.8	213/273/334	121	251	12	11	20%	7%	68	-0.5	180/249/303	123	200	13	11	18%	8%	49	-0.8
✕Ramón Vázquez 2006 · MLB	29	48→58	38→45	48→50	50	227/289/310	83	276	5	8	19%	8%	67	-0.5	227/298/340	113	282	10	5	22%	9%	79	+0.3	241/325/356	115	295	9	2	20%	11%	90	+0.6
✕Chris Gutierrez 2013 · AAA	29	48→58	37→40	46→45	49	222/298/297	74	294	3	7	24%	8%	68	-0.5	220/286/308	88	280	6	7	22%	7%	66	-0.6	216/283/292	76	267	5	3	20%	8%	57	-0.7