Terrin Vavra — OGILVIE

Terrin VavraLF Norfolk Tides

Age 29 L/R 5'11" / 185 lbs AAA HR +9% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†74

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA2

HR0

K%25

BB%10

BABIP309

ISO56

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2025

CONTACT50

Whiff%

4511.5%

xAVG

650.263

POWER35

Barrel%

102.7

Avg EV

1986.7

Bat Spd

1065.2

EYE55

Chase%

4931.9%

SPEED50

Sprint

6027.9

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-2	$0.0M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	22	A	Asheville Tourists	—	453	374	119	32	1	10	62	62	2	18	9	318	418	489	907	171	350	14	14	391	151	+27	+0	—	—	+10	3.8
2021	24	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	184	149	37	10	1	5	29	42	5	6	1	248	388	430	818	181	314	23	16	368	135	+8	+1	—	—	+4	1.3
2021	24	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	24	21	8	2	1	0	3	6	0	0	1	381	458	571	1.030	190	533	25	12	450	191	+3	-0	—	—	+1	0.3
2022	25	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	103	89	23	2	1	1	12	19	0	0	1	258	347	337	684	79	310	18	12	309	95	-1	-0	-0	+1	+2	0.2
2022	25	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	208	173	56	14	1	2	28	36	6	5	1	324	435	451	886	127	400	17	13	399	156	+14	+1	—	—	+5	1.9
2022	25	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	21	16	3	3	0	0	4	3	0	1	0	188	350	375	725	188	214	14	19	316	100	+0	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
2023	26	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	56	49	12	0	0	0	5	12	0	1	0	245	315	245	560		324	21	9	256	60	-3	+0	-2	-1	+1	-0.4
2023	26	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	68	63	21	4	1	2	3	13	2	2	1	333	382	524	906	190	396	19	4	399	156	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2024	27	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	237	202	47	5	3	4	29	62	3	2	3	233	338	347	684	114	314	26	12	311	97	-1	-1	—	—	+5	0.3
2024	27	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	25	24	7	2	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	292	320	375	695	83	389	24	4	312	97	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2025	28	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	298	253	65	13	1	2	34	58	2	7	1	257	349	340	689	83	325	19	11	309	95	-2	+1	—	—	+6	0.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	159	138	35	2	1	1	17	31	0	1	1	254	335	304	640	51	315	19	11	290	83	-3	-0	-2	-0	+3	-0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	22	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	453	401	96	22	1	7	35	86	2	18	9	239	304	352	655	112	268	19	8	286	80	-11	+0	—	—	+10	-0.1
2021	24	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	184	159	35	9	1	3	19	52	5	6	1	220	322	346	668	126	303	28	10	297	87	-3	+1	—	—	+4	0.2
2021	24	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	24	22	7	2	1	0	2	8	0	0	1	318	375	500	875	182	455	33	8	334	112	+0	-0	—	—	+1	0.0
2022	25	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	103	89	23	2	1	1	12	19	0	0	1	258	347	337	684	79	310	18	12	304	92	-1	-0	-0	+1	+2	0.2
2022	25	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	208	182	56	13	1	1	19	42	6	5	1	308	391	407	798	99	390	20	9	351	124	+6	+1	—	—	+5	1.1
2022	25	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	21	17	3	3	0	0	3	4	0	1	0	176	300	353	653	176	185	19	14	270	69	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2023	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	56	49	12	0	0	0	5	12	0	1	0	245	315	245	560		324	21	9	251	56	-3	+0	-2	-1	+1	-0.4
2023	26	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	68	64	17	3	1	1	2	16	2	2	1	266	309	391	699	125	351	24	3	321	103	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	27	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	237	211	45	4	3	3	20	69	3	2	3	213	291	303	594	90	299	29	8	267	67	-9	-1	—	—	+5	-0.5
2024	27	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	25	24	6	2	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	250	280	333	613	83	337	32	4	233	44	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2025	28	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	298	265	66	12	1	2	22	72	2	7	1	249	311	325	636	75	314	24	7	271	70	-11	+1	—	—	+6	-0.3
2019	22	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	453	401	96	22	1	7	35	86	2	18	9	239	304	352	655	112	281	19	8	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A RAW	Asheville Tourists	—	453	374	119	32	1	10	62	62	2	18	9	318	418	489	907	171	350	14	14	391	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	208	181	42	11	2	3	21	60	5	6	2	232	329	365	693	133	331	29	10	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	208	170	45	12	2	5	32	48	5	6	2	265	396	447	843	182	342	23	15	378	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	332	289	81	17	2	2	33	65	6	6	2	280	366	374	740	93	351	20	10	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	332	278	82	19	2	3	44	58	6	6	2	295	402	410	813	115	359	17	13	366	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	124	113	29	3	1	1	7	28	2	3	1	257	311	327	639	71	333	23	6	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	124	112	33	4	1	2	8	25	2	3	1	295	352	402	754	107	365	20	6	335	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	262	235	51	6	3	3	21	78	3	2	3	217	290	306	596	89	310	30	8	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	262	226	54	7	3	4	30	68	3	2	3	239	336	350	685	111	323	26	11	311	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	298	265	66	12	1	2	22	72	2	7	1	249	311	325	636	75	333	24	7	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	—	298	253	65	13	1	2	34	58	2	7	1	257	349	340	689	83	325	19	11	309	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	453	413	96	22	1	7	35	86	2	18	9	232	304	341	645	109	268	19	8	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	208	180	42	11	2	3	21	60	5	6	2	233	329	367	695	133	321	29	10	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	332	290	81	17	2	2	33	65	6	6	2	279	366	372	738	93	352	20	10	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	124	114	29	3	1	1	7	28	2	3	1	254	311	325	636	70	339	23	6	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	262	236	51	6	3	3	21	78	3	2	3	216	290	305	595	89	303	30	8	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	298	272	66	12	1	2	22	72	2	7	1	243	311	316	628	74	314	24	7	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	124	114	29	3	1	1	7	28	2	3	1	254	311	325	636	70	339	23	6	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	262	236	51	6	3	3	21	78	3	2	3	216	290	305	595	89	303	30	8	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	298	272	66	12	1	2	22	72	2	7	1	243	311	316	628	74	314	24	7	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	29	MLB MLE	BAL	10%	20	18	4	1	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	222	300	278	578	56	305	25	10	278	74	-1	+0	-0	-0	+0	0.0
▸ 2026 — real world (MLB)
2026	29	MLB CTX	BAL	10%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						309	0	0	275	74	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	BAL	27%	332	300	70	12	2	4	26	83	3	5	1	233	301	327	628	93	303	25	8	280	76	-10	+1	-2	-4	+7	-0.8
2028	31	MLB MLE	BAL	37%	317	286	66	11	2	4	25	79	3	4	1	231	299	325	625	94	300	25	8	279	75	-9	+0	-3	-3	+7	-0.9
2027	30	MLB CTX	BAL	27%	91	83	19	3	1	1	7	23	1	1	0	229	297	325	622	96	307	25	8	277	76	-3	+0	-1	-1	+2	-0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	BAL	37%	119	108	25	4	1	1	9	30	1	2	0	231	297	315	611	83	304	25	8	276	75	-4	+0	-1	-1	+3	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	369	329	79	9	3	3	33	84	2	4	1	240	313	313	626	73	310	23	9	283	81	-9	+0	-4	-2	+8	-0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	139	16	5	5	58	148	4	7	2	240	314	310	624	71	310	23	9	283	81	-17	+1	-6	-4	+14	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	2346	2088	505	95	14	26	192	556	26	51	20	242	314	338	652	96	314	24	8	288	81	-23	+1	-7	-7	+18	-1.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	140	26	4	7	53	154	7	14	6	242	313	337	650	95	314	24	8	288	81	-18	+1	-5	-6	+14	-1.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ehire Adrianzalast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,519 PA	2.3	1,519	20	19	240	310	353	+10	+13	4.0	4.4
/162	664	9	8	+4.2	+5.5	1.8	pk7: 5
#2Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#3Alexi Casillalast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,883 PA	2.8	1,883	12	80	248	302	332	+8	+3	2.7	2.7
/162	664	4	28	+2.8	+0.9	1.0	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	0.6	393	4	5	238	308	312	-1	-2	-0.1	-0.1
/162	664	6	8	-2.1	-2.8	-0.1	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Terrin Vavra (OGILVIE)	29	50	35	50	55	229/295/312	82	305	2	4	25%	8%	74	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Logan Watkins 2019 · AAA	29	47→53	37→40	47→55	46	222/280/296	75	279	4	12	22%	6%	65	-1.2	229/297/342	113	297	10	17	25%	8%	82	-0.0	225/300/330	105	292	9	28	24%	8%	78	-0.1
✕Jose Salazar 2013 · AAA	29	50	39→40	49→45	42	240/276/332	92	295	6	9	21%	5%	70	-0.8	229/266/305	76	294	5	6	23%	5%	61	-1.5	224/259/274	50	289	3	2	22%	4%	47	-1.1
✕Frank Moore 2007 · AA	29	48→53	39→40	48→50	43	230/280/320	90	306	5	11	26%	6%	70	-0.9	221/270/321	100	299	8	8	27%	6%	67	-1.1	213/258/308	95	289	7	3	28%	6%	57	-0.8
✕Blake Davis 2013 · MLB	29	47→55	39→40	49→50	43	227/264/317	90	276	6	9	20%	5%	63	-1.4	217/251/299	82	277	5	9	23%	4%	53	-2.1	210/239/278	68	272	2	7	23%	3%	40	-1.5
✕Mitch Canham 2014 · AAA	29	48→50	38→45	49→45	49	225/289/316	91	287	4	12	22%	8%	73	-0.6	221/277/318	97	280	7	13	22%	7%	68	-1.0	183/225/230	47	224	4	12	20%	5%	27	-0.8
✕Brad Coon 2012 · AAA	29	49→57	37→40	52→60	49	230/296/309	79	291	4	16	21%	8%	74	-0.6	220/293/302	82	283	5	16	22%	9%	72	-0.7	206/287/265	59	266	3	18	21%	10%	58	-1.0
✕Sergio Perez 2019 · AAA	29	51	38→40	47→50	45	241/290/322	80	296	4	11	20%	6%	74	-0.6	247/283/359	112	299	11	8	20%	4%	80	-0.2	268/289/367	99	318	9	2	19%	2%	84	+0.1
✕Omar Quintanilla 2011 · MLB	29	46→56	40→45	47→45	46	220/281/313	93	287	6	7	25%	8%	70	-0.9	231/290/342	111	286	10	6	22%	7%	79	-0.2	235/301/338	102	290	8	3	21%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Matt Angle 2015 · AAA	29	45→55	39→40	53→60	41	215/274/297	82	301	6	16	29%	6%	63	-1.4	214/281/297	83	304	6	19	29%	8%	65	-1.2	200/282/243	43	293	0	33	29%	9%	51	-0.7
✕Peter Bergeron 2007 · MLB	29	50→59	41→40	44→50	45	241/290/337	96	301	8	11	22%	6%	77	-0.3	229/280/328	99	288	8	11	22%	6%	72	-0.7	226/264/278	52	283	0	8	19%	5%	52	-0.4
✕Irving Lopez 2023 · AAA	28	44→50	39→45	50→40	44	212/275/299	87	268	6	8	23%	6%	64	-1.3	227/300/343	116	287	11	6	23%	8%	84	+0.1	225/306/345	121	283	12	0	24%	9%	84	+0.1
✕Elliot Soto 2019 · AAA	29	48→54	38→40	50	46	226/277/309	84	283	4	8	21%	7%	66	-1.1	229/287/328	99	304	7	9	25%	7%	75	-0.5	212/278/304	91	288	6	10	27%	7%	62	-0.8
✕Sherman Johnson 2019 · AAA	29	43→50	41→45	51→50	48	208/282/311	103	277	8	12	27%	9%	70	-0.9	202/278/303	101	284	8	9	29%	9%	66	-1.1	175/267/260	85	248	7	7	30%	10%	50	-1.0
✕Drew Meyer 2010 · AAA	28	52→58	38→40	49→50	48	245/298/330	85	296	5	7	19%	7%	78	-0.3	230/286/326	96	290	7	8	22%	7%	74	-0.6	207/267/288	81	264	5	7	22%	8%	55	-1.0
✕Skyler Stromsmoe 2013 · AAA	29	46	38→40	49→50	47	218/287/299	81	279	5	15	23%	7%	69	-0.9	217/295/292	75	271	3	13	19%	8%	70	-0.8	211/296/269	58	261	1	11	18%	8%	63	-0.5
✕Christian Herrera 2011 · AAA	29	50	39→40	47→45	40	235/280/321	86	307	6	9	25%	5%	70	-0.8	224/277/313	89	299	6	11	26%	5%	68	-1.0	213/272/286	72	286	4	11	25%	5%	58	-0.6
✕Pete Orr 2008 · MLB	29	48→47	39→45	52→55	42	230/270/318	88	290	5	15	22%	5%	65	-1.2	227/270/332	105	282	6	20	21%	4%	69	-0.9	239/268/327	88	307	5	16	23%	3%	63	-0.9
✕Brian Dinkelman 2013 · MLB	29	47→55	38→45	46→50	44	224/277/308	84	277	5	9	21%	6%	66	-1.1	212/276/323	111	252	10	11	20%	7%	70	-0.9	178/249/283	105	201	10	11	17%	8%	50	-1.1
✕Beau Amaral 2019 · AAA	28	46→52	37→40	48→55	42	220/267/294	74	284	5	10	24%	5%	59	-1.7	220/271/321	101	283	9	11	24%	6%	68	-1.0	198/251/303	105	243	11	10	23%	5%	54	-0.5
✕Tony Wolters 2021 · MLB	29	49→54	37→40	45	51	229/306/305	77	281	5	4	19%	8%	77	-0.3	214/292/298	84	294	7	4	27%	8%	70	-0.8	198/284/266	68	280	5	1	29%	9%	58	-0.7

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps