Terrin Vavra
LF Norfolk Tides| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 26 | AAABAL | 68 | .333/.382/.524 | 2 | 2 | 108 | — | .266/.309/.391 | |
| 2023 | 26 | MLBBAL | 56 | .245/.315/.245 | 0 | 1 | 58 | -0.4 | ||
| 2024 | 27 | AAA/A+2 orgs | 262 | .239/.336/.350 | 4 | 2 | 64 | — | .213/.286/.298 | |
| 2025 | 28 | AAABAL | 298 | .257/.349/.340 | 2 | 7 | 68 | — | .245/.308/.321 | |
| 2026 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 30 | MLBBAL | 16 | .230/.297/.321 | 0 | 0 | 74 | -0.0 | ||
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 31 | MLBBAL | 61 | .226/.294/.315 | 1 | 1 | 71 | -0.2 | ||
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 22 | A | Asheville Tourists | — | 453 | 374 | 119 | 32 | 1 | 10 | 62 | 62 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 318 | 418 | 489 | 907 | 171 | 350 | 14 | 14 | 391 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 184 | 149 | 37 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 42 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 248 | 388 | 430 | 818 | 181 | 314 | 23 | 16 | 368 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 24 | 21 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 381 | 458 | 571 | 1.030 | 190 | 533 | 25 | 12 | 450 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | — | 103 | 89 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 258 | 347 | 337 | 684 | 79 | 310 | 18 | 12 | 309 | 93 | -1 | -0 | -0 | +1 | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 208 | 173 | 56 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 36 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 324 | 435 | 451 | 886 | 127 | 400 | 17 | 13 | 399 | 131 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 21 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 188 | 350 | 375 | 725 | 188 | 214 | 14 | 19 | 316 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | — | 56 | 49 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 245 | 315 | 245 | 560 | 324 | 21 | 9 | 256 | 58 | -3 | +0 | -2 | -1 | +1 | -0.4 | |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 68 | 63 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 333 | 382 | 524 | 906 | 190 | 396 | 19 | 4 | 399 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 237 | 202 | 47 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 62 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 233 | 338 | 347 | 684 | 114 | 314 | 26 | 12 | 311 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 25 | 24 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 292 | 320 | 375 | 695 | 83 | 389 | 24 | 4 | 312 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 298 | 253 | 65 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 58 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 257 | 349 | 340 | 689 | 83 | 325 | 19 | 11 | 309 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 159 | 138 | 35 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 31 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 254 | 335 | 304 | 640 | 51 | 315 | 19 | 11 | 290 | 83 | -3 | -0 | -2 | -0 | +3 | -0.2 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 453 | 401 | 96 | 22 | 1 | 7 | 35 | 86 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 239 | 304 | 352 | 655 | 112 | 268 | 19 | 8 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 184 | 159 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 52 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 220 | 322 | 346 | 668 | 126 | 307 | 28 | 10 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 24 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 318 | 375 | 500 | 875 | 182 | 450 | 33 | 8 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | — | 103 | 89 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 258 | 347 | 337 | 684 | 79 | 310 | 18 | 12 | 306 | 93 | -1 | -0 | -0 | +1 | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 208 | 182 | 58 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 42 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 319 | 401 | 434 | 835 | 115 | 404 | 20 | 9 | 362 | 131 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 21 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 250 | 333 | 583 | 167 | 173 | 19 | 10 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | — | 56 | 49 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 245 | 315 | 245 | 560 | 324 | 21 | 9 | 254 | 58 | -3 | +0 | -2 | -1 | +1 | -0.4 | |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 68 | 64 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 266 | 309 | 391 | 699 | 125 | 359 | 24 | 3 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 237 | 211 | 45 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 69 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 213 | 291 | 303 | 594 | 90 | 302 | 29 | 8 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 25 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 240 | 250 | 490 | 42 | 306 | 32 | 4 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 298 | 265 | 65 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 72 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 245 | 308 | 321 | 629 | 75 | 312 | 24 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 453 | 401 | 96 | 22 | 1 | 7 | 35 | 86 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 239 | 304 | 352 | 655 | 112 | 281 | 19 | 8 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A RAW | Asheville Tourists | — | 453 | 374 | 119 | 32 | 1 | 10 | 62 | 62 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 318 | 418 | 489 | 907 | 171 | 350 | 14 | 14 | 391 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 208 | 181 | 42 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 60 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 232 | 329 | 365 | 693 | 133 | 331 | 29 | 10 | 303 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 208 | 170 | 45 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 48 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 265 | 396 | 447 | 843 | 182 | 342 | 23 | 15 | 378 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 332 | 288 | 83 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 65 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 288 | 375 | 392 | 767 | 104 | 359 | 20 | 10 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 332 | 278 | 82 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 44 | 58 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 295 | 402 | 410 | 813 | 115 | 359 | 17 | 13 | 366 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 124 | 113 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 257 | 311 | 327 | 639 | 71 | 333 | 23 | 6 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 124 | 112 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 295 | 352 | 402 | 754 | 107 | 365 | 20 | 6 | 335 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 262 | 235 | 51 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 77 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 217 | 290 | 306 | 596 | 89 | 308 | 29 | 8 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 262 | 226 | 54 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 30 | 68 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 239 | 336 | 350 | 685 | 111 | 323 | 26 | 11 | 311 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 298 | 265 | 65 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 72 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 245 | 308 | 321 | 629 | 75 | 328 | 24 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA RAW | Norfolk Tides | — | 298 | 253 | 65 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 58 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 257 | 349 | 340 | 689 | 83 | 325 | 19 | 11 | 309 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 453 | 413 | 96 | 22 | 1 | 7 | 35 | 86 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 232 | 304 | 341 | 645 | 109 | 268 | 19 | 8 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 208 | 180 | 42 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 60 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 233 | 329 | 367 | 695 | 133 | 324 | 29 | 10 | 303 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 332 | 289 | 83 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 65 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 287 | 375 | 391 | 766 | 104 | 360 | 20 | 10 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 124 | 114 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 254 | 311 | 325 | 636 | 70 | 343 | 23 | 6 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 262 | 236 | 51 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 77 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 216 | 290 | 305 | 595 | 89 | 302 | 29 | 8 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 298 | 272 | 65 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 72 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 239 | 308 | 312 | 620 | 74 | 312 | 24 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 262 | 236 | 51 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 77 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 216 | 290 | 305 | 595 | 89 | 302 | 29 | 8 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 298 | 272 | 65 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 72 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 239 | 308 | 312 | 620 | 74 | 312 | 24 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB MLE | BAL | 10% | 348 | 315 | 70 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 85 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 226 | 294 | 315 | 609 | 88 | 296 | 24 | 8 | 277 | 74 | -11 | +0 | -0 | -4 | +8 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB CTX | BAL | 10% | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 230 | 297 | 321 | 618 | 91 | 300 | 25 | 6 | 281 | 74 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 31 | MLB MLE | BAL | 27% | 222 | 201 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 55 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 223 | 291 | 310 | 600 | 87 | 292 | 25 | 8 | 273 | 71 | -8 | +0 | -3 | -2 | +5 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB CTX | BAL | 27% | 61 | 55 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 226 | 294 | 315 | 609 | 89 | 296 | 25 | 8 | 277 | 71 | -2 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 220 | 193 | 47 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 46 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 244 | 324 | 306 | 630 | 62 | 306 | 21 | 10 | 287 | 82 | -5 | +0 | -3 | -1 | +5 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 570 | 139 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 65 | 136 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 244 | 324 | 307 | 631 | 63 | 306 | 21 | 10 | 287 | 82 | -16 | +0 | -8 | -2 | +14 | -1.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2054 | 1825 | 442 | 85 | 12 | 23 | 169 | 481 | 23 | 47 | 20 | 242 | 314 | 340 | 654 | 98 | 313 | 23 | 8 | 289 | 82 | -16 | +0 | -5 | -4 | +12 | -1.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 578 | 140 | 27 | 4 | 7 | 53 | 152 | 7 | 15 | 6 | 242 | 313 | 339 | 653 | 97 | 314 | 23 | 8 | 289 | 82 | -19 | +0 | -6 | -5 | +14 | -1.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 298 PAwOBA .302 → .269 (−33)K% 19.5% → 24.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.46% | ÷0.967 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.41% | ÷1.063 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 7.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.67% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.13% | ÷0.959 | ×0.930 | ×1.026 | ×0.992 | 24.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.978 | ×0.830 | ×1.026 | ×0.992 | 5.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.51% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.026 | ×0.992 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.03% | ÷0.945 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 0.75% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 92, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 93, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .302 → .269; ISO .083 → .073; BABIP .325 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 237 PAwOBA .305 → .269 (−35)K% 26.2% → 29.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.16% | ÷1.070 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.24% | ÷0.987 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 8.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.27% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.962 | ×0.930 | ×1.008 | ×1.003 | 24.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.006 | ×0.830 | ×1.008 | ×1.003 | 2.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.14% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.008 | ×1.003 | 2.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.01% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 92, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 114, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .305 → .269; ISO .114 → .098; BABIP .314 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 25 PAwOBA .303 → .214 (−89)K% 24.0% → 31.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.00% | ÷0.993 | ×1.310 | — | — | 31.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.00% | ÷0.947 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.958 | 2.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.78% | ÷1.048 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.958 | 22.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.980 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 8.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.026 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 110, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .303 → .214; ISO .083 → .058; BABIP .389 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAANorfolk Tides · 68 PAwOBA .388 → .328 (−61)K% 19.1% → 23.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.12% | ÷0.980 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.41% | ÷0.948 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 3.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.94% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.00% | ÷1.019 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 26.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.00% | ÷1.015 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 6.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 2.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.00% | ÷0.995 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.86% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 96, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .388 → .328; ISO .190 → .149; BABIP .396 → .359. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAANorfolk Tides · 208 PAwOBA .389 → .362 (−28)K% 17.3% → 20.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.31% | ÷1.017 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.46% | ÷1.048 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 9.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.88% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 2.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.47% | ÷0.952 | ×0.930 | ×1.047 | ×1.033 | 30.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.047 | ×1.033 | 9.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.73% | ÷1.130 | ×0.970 | ×1.047 | ×1.033 | 0.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.46% | ÷0.970 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 1.09% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 90, 2B 100, 3B 126, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.
Result: wOBA .389 → .362; ISO .127 → .112; BABIP .400 → .404. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 21 PAwOBA .325 → .251 (−73)K% 14.3% → 18.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.29% | ÷0.991 | ×1.310 | — | — | 18.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.05% | ÷0.966 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 11.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.980 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷0.955 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 18.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.964 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.029 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 96, 2B 91, 3B 93, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .325 → .251; ISO .188 → .168; BABIP .214 → .173. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AABowie Baysox · 184 PAwOBA .359 → .300 (−59)K% 22.8% → 28.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.83% | ÷0.983 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.76% | ÷1.065 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.012 | 10.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.72% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 2.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.63% | ÷0.978 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 20.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.35% | ÷0.995 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 8.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.93% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 1.02% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.67% | ÷1.258 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 2.93% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 152, 1B 96, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 97, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .359 → .300; ISO .181 → .142; BABIP .314 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 24 PAwOBA .439 → .330 (−108)K% 25.0% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.002 | ×1.350 | — | — | 33.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.974 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 9.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.026 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.988 | 29.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷0.989 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 11.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.988 | 4.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.041 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 105, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .439 → .330; ISO .190 → .134; BABIP .533 → .450. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).