Logan Watkins
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 26 | AAACHC | 378 | .261/.318/.353 | 1 | 15 | 60 | — | .237/.277/.318 |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA/AADET | 322 | .242/.345/.300 | 2 | 5 | 54 | — | .220/.294/.266 |
| 2019 | 29 | AAAToros de Tiju… | 146 | .254/.364/.393 | 3 | 8 | 73 | — | .225/.301/.326 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 18 | ROK | AZL Cubs | — | 107 | 80 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 325 | 471 | 362 | 833 | 37 | 413 | 18 | 19 | 375 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | A | Peoria Chiefs | — | 520 | 440 | 115 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 58 | 97 | 3 | 19 | 10 | 261 | 351 | 339 | 690 | 77 | 332 | 19 | 11 | 306 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A+ | Daytona Cubs | — | 502 | 441 | 124 | 15 | 12 | 5 | 44 | 97 | 7 | 21 | 5 | 281 | 356 | 404 | 759 | 122 | 346 | 19 | 9 | 335 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 588 | 488 | 137 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 76 | 97 | 7 | 28 | 7 | 281 | 385 | 422 | 807 | 141 | 332 | 16 | 13 | 354 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 40 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 375 | 344 | 719 | 125 | 214 | 8 | 20 | 337 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | — | 42 | 38 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 268 | 237 | 505 | 26 | 333 | 33 | 7 | 231 | 42 | -3 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2013 | 23 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 472 | 412 | 100 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 52 | 98 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 243 | 333 | 379 | 712 | 136 | 300 | 21 | 11 | 320 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | — | 68 | 65 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 246 | 269 | 338 | 607 | 92 | 312 | 24 | 1 | 268 | 60 | -3 | +0 | -3 | +2 | +1 | -0.3 |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 368 | 324 | 83 | 21 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 77 | 2 | 23 | 4 | 256 | 329 | 364 | 693 | 108 | 322 | 21 | 9 | 307 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 378 | 337 | 88 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 26 | 67 | 2 | 15 | 7 | 261 | 318 | 353 | 671 | 92 | 318 | 18 | 7 | 293 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 37 | 35 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 257 | 297 | 257 | 554 | 333 | 22 | 5 | 258 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 27 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 285 | 238 | 57 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 44 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 239 | 351 | 307 | 658 | 67 | 284 | 15 | 12 | 303 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA | Toros de Tijuana | — | 146 | 122 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 33 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 254 | 364 | 393 | 757 | 139 | 326 | 23 | 13 | 338 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 110 | 103 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 233 | 269 | 301 | 569 | 68 | 319 | 27 | 4 | 254 | 58 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +2 | -0.2 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 107 | 87 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 27 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 264 | 373 | 287 | 660 | 23 | 354 | 25 | 12 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 520 | 458 | 113 | 14 | 8 | 1 | 40 | 131 | 3 | 19 | 10 | 247 | 311 | 319 | 630 | 72 | 322 | 25 | 8 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A+ MLE | Daytona Cubs | — | 502 | 453 | 109 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 32 | 130 | 7 | 21 | 5 | 241 | 301 | 336 | 636 | 95 | 315 | 26 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 588 | 510 | 134 | 19 | 10 | 7 | 54 | 121 | 7 | 28 | 7 | 263 | 342 | 380 | 722 | 118 | 316 | 21 | 9 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | MLB MLE | Chicago Cubs | — | 42 | 38 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 268 | 237 | 505 | 26 | 333 | 33 | 7 | 230 | 42 | -3 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2013 | 23 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 472 | 426 | 88 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 38 | 126 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 207 | 278 | 310 | 588 | 103 | 273 | 27 | 8 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | MLB MLE | Chicago Cubs | — | 68 | 66 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 242 | 254 | 333 | 587 | 91 | 312 | 24 | 0 | 257 | 60 | -3 | +0 | -3 | +2 | +1 | -0.3 |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 368 | 338 | 75 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 100 | 2 | 23 | 4 | 222 | 267 | 305 | 572 | 83 | 292 | 27 | 5 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 378 | 346 | 82 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 17 | 83 | 2 | 15 | 7 | 237 | 277 | 318 | 595 | 81 | 290 | 22 | 4 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 37 | 36 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 222 | 243 | 222 | 465 | 292 | 27 | 3 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 27 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 285 | 250 | 55 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 55 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 220 | 301 | 272 | 573 | 52 | 263 | 19 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA MLE | Toros de Tijuana | — | 146 | 129 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 36 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 225 | 301 | 326 | 626 | 101 | 284 | 25 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 107 | 87 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 27 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 264 | 373 | 287 | 660 | 23 | 371 | 25 | 12 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Cubs | — | 107 | 80 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 325 | 471 | 362 | 833 | 37 | 413 | 18 | 19 | 375 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 520 | 458 | 113 | 14 | 8 | 1 | 40 | 131 | 3 | 19 | 10 | 247 | 311 | 319 | 630 | 72 | 343 | 25 | 8 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | A RAW | Peoria Chiefs | — | 520 | 440 | 115 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 58 | 97 | 3 | 19 | 10 | 261 | 351 | 339 | 690 | 77 | 332 | 19 | 11 | 306 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A+ MLE | Daytona Cubs | — | 502 | 453 | 109 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 32 | 130 | 7 | 21 | 5 | 241 | 301 | 336 | 636 | 95 | 324 | 26 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A+ RAW | Daytona Cubs | — | 502 | 441 | 124 | 15 | 12 | 5 | 44 | 97 | 7 | 21 | 5 | 281 | 356 | 404 | 759 | 122 | 346 | 19 | 9 | 335 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 628 | 546 | 144 | 21 | 10 | 8 | 58 | 129 | 7 | 28 | 7 | 264 | 342 | 383 | 725 | 119 | 330 | 21 | 9 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 628 | 520 | 144 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 84 | 100 | 7 | 28 | 7 | 277 | 385 | 417 | 802 | 140 | 324 | 16 | 13 | 353 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 514 | 464 | 96 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 41 | 140 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 207 | 277 | 304 | 581 | 97 | 282 | 27 | 8 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 514 | 450 | 108 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 55 | 112 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 240 | 328 | 367 | 695 | 127 | 302 | 22 | 11 | 313 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 436 | 404 | 91 | 19 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 116 | 3 | 24 | 4 | 225 | 265 | 314 | 580 | 89 | 302 | 27 | 4 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 436 | 389 | 99 | 24 | 1 | 5 | 34 | 93 | 3 | 24 | 4 | 254 | 319 | 360 | 679 | 105 | 321 | 21 | 8 | 301 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 378 | 346 | 82 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 17 | 83 | 2 | 15 | 7 | 237 | 277 | 318 | 595 | 81 | 303 | 22 | 4 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA RAW | Iowa Cubs | — | 378 | 337 | 88 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 26 | 67 | 2 | 15 | 7 | 261 | 318 | 353 | 671 | 92 | 318 | 18 | 7 | 293 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 322 | 286 | 63 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 65 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 220 | 294 | 266 | 560 | 45 | 279 | 20 | 7 | 249 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 322 | 273 | 66 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 36 | 52 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 242 | 345 | 300 | 645 | 59 | 290 | 16 | 11 | 298 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA MLE | Toros de Tijuana | — | 146 | 129 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 36 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 225 | 301 | 326 | 626 | 101 | 297 | 25 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA RAW | Toros de Tijuana | — | 146 | 122 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 33 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 254 | 364 | 393 | 757 | 139 | 326 | 23 | 13 | 338 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 107 | 91 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 27 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 253 | 373 | 275 | 647 | 22 | 354 | 25 | 12 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 520 | 472 | 113 | 14 | 8 | 1 | 40 | 131 | 3 | 19 | 10 | 239 | 311 | 309 | 621 | 70 | 322 | 25 | 8 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A+ MLE | Daytona Cubs | — | 502 | 458 | 109 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 32 | 130 | 7 | 21 | 5 | 238 | 301 | 332 | 633 | 94 | 315 | 26 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 628 | 558 | 144 | 21 | 10 | 8 | 58 | 129 | 7 | 28 | 7 | 258 | 342 | 375 | 717 | 116 | 316 | 21 | 9 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 514 | 464 | 96 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 41 | 140 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 207 | 277 | 304 | 581 | 97 | 278 | 27 | 8 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 436 | 411 | 91 | 19 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 116 | 3 | 24 | 4 | 221 | 265 | 309 | 574 | 88 | 295 | 27 | 4 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 378 | 356 | 82 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 17 | 83 | 2 | 15 | 7 | 230 | 277 | 309 | 586 | 79 | 290 | 22 | 4 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 322 | 289 | 63 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 65 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 218 | 294 | 263 | 557 | 45 | 266 | 20 | 7 | 249 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA MLE | Toros de Tijuana | — | 146 | 131 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 36 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 221 | 301 | 321 | 621 | 99 | 284 | 25 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 110 | 103 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 233 | 269 | 301 | 569 | 68 | 319 | 27 | 4 | 254 | 70 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +2 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 609 | 142 | 24 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 177 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 233 | 270 | 302 | 572 | 69 | 319 | 27 | 4 | 254 | 70 | -32 | +1 | -15 | +20 | +14 | -1.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3553 | 3173 | 750 | 108 | 43 | 28 | 255 | 857 | 37 | 132 | 48 | 236 | 301 | 324 | 625 | 88 | 313 | 24 | 7 | 272 | 70 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +2 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 580 | 137 | 20 | 8 | 5 | 47 | 157 | 7 | 24 | 9 | 236 | 301 | 324 | 625 | 88 | 313 | 24 | 7 | 272 | 70 | -32 | +1 | -15 | +20 | +14 | -1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAAToros de Tijuana · 146 PAwOBA .327 → .276 (−51)K% 22.6% → 24.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.60% | ÷1.111 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.33% | ÷1.007 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 8.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.37% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 1.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.60% | ÷0.989 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.972 | 21.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.74% | ÷1.051 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.972 | 5.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.12% | ÷0.993 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.972 | 1.01% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.37% | ÷1.023 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 2.24% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 98, 2B 110, 3B 99, K 122, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .327 → .276; ISO .139 → .110; BABIP .326 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAErie SeaWolves · 285 PAwOBA .299 → .254 (−44)K% 15.4% → 19.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.44% | ÷0.973 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.93% | ÷1.059 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 7.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.46% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 2.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.23% | ÷1.020 | ×0.970 | ×1.019 | ×0.968 | 22.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.09% | ÷0.944 | ×0.860 | ×1.019 | ×0.968 | 2.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.03% | ÷1.094 | ×0.950 | ×1.019 | ×0.968 | 0.88% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.03% | ÷1.259 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 0.62% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 152, 1B 104, 2B 89, 3B 119, K 95, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .299 → .254; ISO .067 → .054; BABIP .284 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 37 PAwOBA .251 → .207 (−45)K% 21.6% → 25.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.62% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.41% | ÷0.996 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 3.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.054 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.992 | 29.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.916 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.049 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 111, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .251 → .207; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .333 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAIowa Cubs · 378 PAwOBA .287 → .257 (−31)K% 17.7% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.72% | ÷1.037 | ×1.290 | — | — | 22.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.35% | ÷1.034 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 4.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.53% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 0.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.44% | ÷1.006 | ×0.900 | ×1.025 | ×1.003 | 22.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.19% | ÷0.927 | ×0.810 | ×1.025 | ×1.003 | 4.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.59% | ÷0.945 | ×0.810 | ×1.025 | ×1.003 | 2.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.37% | ÷0.890 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 0.33% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 101, 2B 85, 3B 89, K 107, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .287 → .257; ISO .092 → .084; BABIP .318 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAAIowa Cubs · 368 PAwOBA .300 → .250 (−50)K% 20.9% → 27.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.92% | ÷0.996 | ×1.290 | — | — | 27.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.70% | ÷1.249 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 5.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.54% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 0.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷1.021 | ×0.900 | ×1.046 | ×1.033 | 21.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.50% | ÷1.111 | ×0.810 | ×1.046 | ×1.033 | 6.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.40% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.046 | ×1.033 | 0.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.62% | ÷0.929 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 1.41% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 104, 2B 122, 3B 130, K 99, BB 150 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.
Result: wOBA .300 → .250; ISO .108 → .088; BABIP .322 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAAIowa Cubs · 472 PAwOBA .312 → .258 (−53)K% 20.8% → 26.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.76% | ÷1.004 | ×1.290 | — | — | 26.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.048 | 8.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.85% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.048 | 0.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.34% | ÷1.009 | ×0.900 | ×1.015 | ×1.048 | 20.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.73% | ÷1.050 | ×0.810 | ×1.015 | ×1.048 | 4.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.23% | ÷1.012 | ×0.810 | ×1.015 | ×1.048 | 1.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.55% | ÷1.130 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.048 | 1.84% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 102, 2B 110, 3B 102, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .312 → .258; ISO .136 → .104; BABIP .300 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AATennessee Smokies · 588 PAwOBA .347 → .311 (−36)K% 16.5% → 20.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.50% | ÷0.976 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.93% | ÷0.983 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 9.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.19% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 1.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.81% | ÷0.991 | ×0.920 | ×1.020 | ×1.027 | 24.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.12% | ÷1.033 | ×0.910 | ×1.020 | ×1.027 | 4.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.81% | ÷1.082 | ×0.880 | ×1.020 | ×1.027 | 2.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.30% | ÷1.028 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 1.84% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 116, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .347 → .311; ISO .141 → .125; BABIP .332 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 A+Daytona Cubs · 502 PAwOBA .330 → .278 (−52)K% 19.3% → 25.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.32% | ÷1.064 | ×1.420 | — | — | 25.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.76% | ÷1.056 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 6.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.39% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 1.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.74% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | ×1.012 | ×1.012 | 24.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.36% | ÷1.075 | ×0.960 | ×1.012 | ×1.012 | 3.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.49% | ÷1.030 | ×0.810 | ×1.012 | ×1.012 | 2.81% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.45% | ÷1.232 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 1.05% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 103, 2B 115, 3B 106, K 113, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .330 → .278; ISO .122 → .097; BABIP .346 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .