Zach Rogacki

C Fresno Grizzlies

Age 24 L/R 6'1" / 185 lbs A HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1423ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	23	ACOL	17	.308/.471/.615	1	1	132	—	.286/.412/.571
2027PROJMLE	24	MLBCOL	200	.226/.310/.381	6	5	95	0.2
2028PROJ30% MLB	25	MLBCOL	26	.240/.322/.414	1	1	96	0.1
2029PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBCOL	66	.240/.323/.415	2	1	96	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsAustin Wells (age 24) · Bo Naylor (age 23) · Michael Massey (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 50 proj PA

wRC+†95

AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .308 / .377

PA50

HR1

K%28

BB%10

ISO155

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	23	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	17	13	4	1	0	1	4	3	0	1	0	308	471	615	1.086	308	333	18	24	469	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	23	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	17	14	4	1	0	1	3	4	0	1	0	286	412	571	983	286	287	24	18	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	17	14	4	1	0	1	3	4	0	1	0	286	412	571	983	286	333	24	18	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	—	17	13	4	1	0	1	4	3	0	1	0	308	471	615	1.086	308	333	18	24	469	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	17	14	4	1	0	1	3	4	0	1	0	286	412	571	983	286	287	24	18	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	23	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	17	14	4	1	0	1	3	4	0	1	0	286	412	571	983	286	287	24	18	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	COL	0%	200	176	40	8	1	6	21	56	1	5	1	226	310	381	691	155	291	28	10	309	95	-1	+1	+0	+4	+4	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	COL	30%	85	76	17	3	0	3	9	23	0	2	0	227	311	382	693	156	291	27	11	310	96	-0	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	COL	44%	149	132	30	6	1	4	15	41	1	3	1	227	311	383	695	156	291	28	10	311	96	-1	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	COL	49%	193	170	40	8	1	6	20	52	1	4	1	227	311	382	693	155	290	27	10	310	96	-1	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	COL	51%	231	205	46	9	1	7	23	63	1	4	1	226	309	378	688	152	289	27	10	308	94	-2	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	COL	51%	250	222	50	10	1	7	25	68	1	3	1	225	307	374	680	149	288	27	10	305	92	-2	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	COL	51%	261	232	51	10	1	7	26	72	1	3	1	222	303	366	669	144	286	28	10	300	89	-3	+0	-2	+5	+6	0.5
2034	31	MLB MLE	COL	51%	244	217	47	9	1	6	24	68	1	1	0	217	298	356	654	138	282	28	10	294	85	-4	+0	-3	+4	+5	0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	COL	30%	26	23	5	1	0	1	3	7	0	1	0	240	322	414	736	175	306	27	12	327	96	-0	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	COL	44%	66	59	14	3	0	2	7	18	0	1	0	240	323	415	738	175	305	27	11	327	96	-0	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	COL	49%	94	83	20	4	1	3	10	26	1	2	0	240	322	413	735	173	305	28	11	326	96	-0	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	COL	51%	119	105	26	5	1	4	12	32	1	2	0	239	320	409	730	170	304	27	10	324	94	-1	+0	-0	+2	+3	0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	COL	51%	129	114	27	5	1	4	13	35	1	2	0	237	318	404	721	166	302	27	10	321	92	-1	+0	-1	+2	+3	0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	COL	51%	134	119	28	5	1	4	13	37	1	1	0	234	314	394	708	161	299	28	10	315	89	-2	+0	-1	+2	+3	0.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	COL	51%	126	112	26	5	1	4	12	35	1	0	0	229	309	383	692	154	296	28	10	309	85	-2	+0	-1	+2	+3	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	694	615	146	28	5	22	70	190	5	9	0	237	320	407	727	169	305	27	10	320	93	-7	+2	-4	+12	+15	1.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	576	137	26	5	21	66	178	5	8	0	238	322	410	732	172	304	27	10	320	93	-6	+2	-3	+12	+14	1.8
Career	—	MLE		—	1480	1313	294	58	6	42	150	405	6	22	5	224	306	373	680	149	289	27	10	305	93	-14	+2	-7	+26	+32	4.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	129	25	3	18	66	178	3	10	2	224	307	371	678	147	289	27	10	305	93	-6	+1	-3	+12	+14	1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFresno Grizzlies · 17 PAwOBA .457 → .363 (−94)K% 17.6% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.65%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	24.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	23.53%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.990	16.07%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×0.990	18.22%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.990	8.22%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	—	×0.990	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	10.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.990	7.92%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .457 → .363; ISO .308 → .251; BABIP .333 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Kelly Shoppachlast yr '13 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,839 PA	2.8	1,839	70	1	225	314	417	+33	+14	11.3	11.5
/162	664	25	0	+11.9	+5.0	4.1	pk7: 12
#2Josh Bardlast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,958 PA	2.9	1,958	38	1	252	318	381	+33	+24	10.4	10.4
/162	664	13	0	+11.1	+8.0	3.5	pk7: 11
#3Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#4Doug Mirabelli'96-'07 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,655 PA	2.5	1,655	58	3	222*	307*	395*	+26	+0	5.5	5.6
/162	664	23	1	+10.6	+0.0	2.2	pk7: 6
#5Jerry May'64-'73 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,716 PA	2.6	1,716	15	1	236*	314*	355*	+31	+0	5.6	5.6
/162	664	6	0	+11.8	+0.0	2.2	pk7: 6
#6Jerry McNertney'64-'73 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,605 PA	2.4	1,605	27	3	243*	301*	372*	+27	+0	4.6	4.5
/162	664	11	1	+11.2	+0.1	1.9	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	1.1	743	21	11	225	304	374	+13	+16	2.8	2.7
/162	664	19	10	+11.9	+14.3	2.5	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Zach Rogacki (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	224/308/377	154	291	1	1	28%	10%	95	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Austin Wells 2023 · AA	24	43→44	52→55	57→50	48	221/305/386	165	294	19	14	30%	10%	96	+1.0	218/292/386	168	268	20	8	26%	9%	91	+0.7	211/285/386	175	250	21	5	25%	8%	89	+0.4
✕Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	42→46	50→55	54→50	49	211/301/366	155	290	17	16	32%	10%	90	+0.6	217/302/391	174	272	21	10	27%	10%	96	+1.0	206/293/384	178	246	22	6	26%	10%	92	+0.5
✕Michael Massey 2022 · A	24	43→53	53→55	51→50	44	227/280/400	174	255	21	11	21%	6%	90	+0.6	242/290/406	164	288	20	10	23%	5%	95	+0.9	246/293/415	168	288	21	9	22%	5%	98	+1.0
●Joey Wendle 2014 · A	24	49→59	49→50	51→50	43	244/300/404	159	301	16	9	24%	6%	97	+1.1	239/279/372	133	296	11	9	23%	4%	82	-0.0	269/326/398	129	322	9	19	18%	6%	106	+1.0
✕Kevin Melillo 2006 · AA	24	48→51	52→50	51→50	52	247/315/419	173	275	20	13	19%	9%	107	+1.8	235/300/374	139	293	13	10	23%	8%	91	+0.6	227/294/361	134	289	12	8	25%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Brett Wisely 2022 · A	23	48→51	50	52→55	43	241/298/388	147	324	18	20	31%	8%	93	+0.8	236/304/372	136	307	14	18	26%	8%	91	+0.7	235/306/367	132	300	12	17	24%	8%	89	+0.4
✕Graham Pauley 2024 · AA	23	50→52	52→55	53→50	48	253/317/427	174	298	20	14	22%	8%	109	+2.0	220/288/373	153	268	17	10	24%	8%	86	+0.3	202/274/352	149	245	16	9	24%	8%	75	-0.3
✕Josh Smith 2022 · AA	24	50→53	50→45	56→50	48	247/333/406	159	303	17	23	24%	8%	111	+2.1	232/323/356	124	290	11	13	22%	9%	96	+1.0	240/326/364	124	289	12	10	20%	9%	98	+0.9
✕Drew Gilbert 2024 · AA	23	49→50	49→50	49→45	47	248/313/399	151	299	17	12	23%	8%	101	+1.4	225/300/374	149	266	16	8	22%	8%	91	+0.7	217/301/368	151	248	17	6	20%	8%	89	+0.4
✕Tim Wheeler 2012 · AA	24	48→56	51→50	49→50	42	242/300/401	160	305	19	14	27%	6%	97	+1.1	233/286/343	110	312	10	12	27%	6%	78	-0.3	219/273/306	88	301	6	11	28%	5%	62	-1.1
✕Trey Sweeney 2024 · AA	24	42→45	47→50	54→55	49	213/293/347	134	271	14	19	26%	9%	82	+0.0	222/286/356	134	295	15	16	28%	8%	82	-0.0	219/281/356	137	291	16	15	29%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Henry Davis 2023 · AA	23	46→47	49→50	52→50	42	230/312/381	150	296	16	13	27%	6%	98	+1.2	223/306/371	148	287	17	12	27%	8%	93	+0.8	210/295/352	142	268	18	11	27%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Shed Long Jr. 2019 · AA	23	49→50	47→50	51→50	44	238/300/376	138	319	14	13	29%	7%	91	+0.7	230/290/373	143	310	15	10	29%	8%	86	+0.3	222/283/373	151	295	17	8	29%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Yonathan Perlaza 2023 · AA	24	44→54	52→55	47→50	45	224/292/395	171	297	19	10	30%	8%	93	+0.8	240/311/410	170	311	17	12	27%	9%	103	+1.5	252/321/420	168	321	16	12	25%	9%	105	+1.7
✕Haydn McGeary 2024 · AA	24	48	47→50	46→45	48	234/313/369	135	313	15	7	28%	9%	95	+0.9	204/272/316	112	311	13	8	36%	8%	67	-1.1	171/234/291	120	258	16	8	39%	7%	47	-1.7
✕Daulton Varsho 2020 · AA	24	49→50	51→60	55→50	46	248/306/409	161	285	19	19	20%	6%	101	+1.4	236/301/422	186	274	22	15	22%	8%	102	+1.5	227/293/421	194	258	25	15	23%	8%	100	+1.1
✕Blake Sabol 2022 · A	24	52→50	48→55	50	41	239/306/384	144	377	15	9	38%	8%	95	+0.9	239/302/385	146	339	16	9	32%	8%	94	+0.9	235/301/376	141	323	17	10	30%	8%	91	+0.5
✕Andrew Young 2018 · A	24	45→46	49→55	50→40	40	226/292/373	147	297	16	7	29%	5%	88	+0.5	226/303/391	165	279	20	5	26%	6%	97	+1.1	219/301/403	184	282	23	3	30%	6%	96	+0.8
✕Dustin Harris 2023 · AA	24	46→56	53→50	54→60	47	241/304/414	173	279	22	19	23%	7%	102	+1.5	232/304/361	129	298	13	29	25%	8%	89	+0.5	253/317/371	118	309	11	34	21%	7%	94	+0.7
●Bryson Stott 2022 · AAA	24	50→56	46→45	48→55	48	243/309/371	128	324	13	10	28%	9%	93	+0.8	250/308/376	126	299	13	20	20%	8%	94	+0.9	256/321/378	122	291	12	29	16%	8%	99	+1.3

Zach Rogacki

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps