Caleb Johnson — OGILVIE

Caleb JohnsonSS Ontario Tower Buzzers

Age 23 S/R A HR +8%BB -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 100 proj PA

wRC+†75

AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .275 / .342

PA100

HR3

K%31

BB%7

ISO132

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	22	A	Ontario Tower Buzzers	—	96	82	24	5	0	5	11	25	1	9	1	293	383	537	920	244	352	26	11	395	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	22	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	—	96	85	20	4	0	4	8	34	1	9	1	235	309	424	732	188	293	35	8	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	—	96	85	20	4	0	4	8	34	1	9	1	235	309	424	732	188	327	35	8	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A RAW	Ontario Tower Buzzers	—	96	82	24	5	0	5	11	25	1	9	1	293	383	537	920	244	352	26	11	395	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	—	96	87	20	4	0	4	8	34	1	9	1	230	309	414	722	184	293	35	8	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	22	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	—	96	87	20	4	0	4	8	34	1	9	1	230	309	414	722	184	293	35	8	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	LAD	0%	206	187	40	7	1	5	15	64	2	6	1	214	277	345	623	132	290	31	7	279	75	-6	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAD	30%	184	167	37	7	1	5	13	56	2	5	1	216	280	351	631	134	291	30	7	282	77	-5	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAD	44%	279	255	55	10	1	7	20	84	2	8	1	218	283	354	637	136	291	30	7	285	79	-7	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAD	51%	345	313	68	12	2	9	26	103	3	9	1	219	284	357	642	138	291	30	8	287	80	-8	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAD	52%	379	345	76	14	2	10	28	112	3	10	2	220	285	357	643	138	291	30	7	287	81	-9	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAD	53%	399	363	80	15	2	10	30	117	3	10	2	219	285	356	641	136	290	29	8	287	80	-9	+1	-1	+4	+9	0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	LAD	53%	403	367	79	14	2	10	30	119	3	10	2	217	283	350	632	133	289	30	7	283	78	-11	+1	-1	+4	+9	0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	LAD	56%	404	368	79	14	2	10	30	121	3	10	2	214	279	342	621	128	287	30	7	279	75	-12	+1	-2	+4	+9	0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAD	30%	55	51	10	2	0	1	4	17	0	1	0	213	277	347	624	134	285	31	7	280	77	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAD	44%	123	112	24	4	1	3	9	37	1	3	0	215	280	351	631	136	285	30	7	282	79	-3	+1	+0	+1	+3	0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAD	51%	175	158	35	6	1	5	13	52	2	5	1	216	281	354	635	138	285	30	7	284	80	-4	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAD	52%	199	180	39	7	1	5	15	59	2	5	1	216	282	354	636	137	284	30	8	285	81	-5	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAD	53%	213	193	42	7	1	6	16	62	2	5	1	216	282	352	634	136	284	29	8	284	80	-5	+1	-0	+2	+5	0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	LAD	53%	212	192	42	7	1	6	16	63	2	5	1	214	280	346	626	132	283	30	8	280	78	-6	+1	-1	+2	+5	0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	LAD	56%	228	207	45	8	1	6	17	68	2	6	1	211	276	339	615	128	281	30	7	276	75	-7	+1	-1	+2	+5	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1205	1093	237	41	6	32	90	358	11	30	5	217	283	353	636	136	289	30	7	282	79	-31	+4	-2	+13	+26	1.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	127	22	3	17	49	193	6	16	3	215	283	349	632	134	287	30	8	282	79	-17	+2	-1	+7	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	2589	2355	513	93	12	68	192	777	21	74	12	218	283	354	637	136	292	30	7	285	79	-64	+9	-4	+27	+54	2.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	591	128	23	3	17	48	195	5	19	3	217	281	352	633	135	290	30	7	285	79	-17	+2	-1	+7	+14	0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#2Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#3Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.0	1,304	33	34	218	280	353	+14	+12	2.1	2.1
/162	664	17	17	+7.1	+6.1	1.1	pk7: 2
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Caleb Johnson (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	212/275/342	130	290	3	3	31%	7%	75	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Peyton Wilson 2023 · A	23	44→52	46→45	57→55	41	218/283/349	132	301	14	20	31%	7%	78	-0.3	221/289/335	114	292	10	18	26%	8%	78	-0.3	215/288/326	111	284	9	19	26%	8%	72	-0.6
✕Kenedy Corona 2023 · A	23	42	47→50	53→55	40	214/271/352	138	294	15	21	32%	6%	75	-0.5	206/270/322	116	285	12	24	30%	7%	68	-1.0	202/273/295	93	277	8	27	28%	7%	60	-1.1
✕Tim Tawa 2022 · A	23	45	47→55	58→50	45	221/289/359	138	303	14	18	30%	8%	83	+0.1	213/278/339	126	273	14	11	26%	8%	74	-0.5	223/286/391	168	267	21	13	25%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Kevin Smith 2019 · A	23	43→45	48→55	53→50	36	219/261/365	146	296	16	15	31%	4%	74	-0.5	205/255/362	157	286	18	14	34%	6%	72	-0.7	209/261/367	157	281	19	15	32%	6%	73	-0.5
✕Kaden Polcovich 2022 · AA	23	39→41	46→45	54→55	46	195/283/323	128	276	13	17	32%	9%	74	-0.6	200/283/317	117	274	11	17	29%	9%	72	-0.7	190/277/301	111	259	10	19	29%	9%	64	-0.7
✕Eddinson Paulino 2024 · A	22	42	46→50	54→50	43	210/273/349	139	282	12	17	29%	7%	75	-0.5	202/261/322	120	278	12	13	30%	6%	64	-1.3	186/244/297	111	257	12	11	31%	6%	49	-1.3
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	38→45	48→50	57→55	45	200/273/344	144	263	16	19	30%	8%	74	-0.5	218/289/354	136	286	15	17	28%	8%	82	+0.0	219/291/353	133	286	15	17	27%	8%	81	-0.1
✕Patrick Bailey 2022 · A	23	43→49	44→45	50→45	43	211/277/328	117	305	11	8	33%	8%	72	-0.7	217/286/343	126	292	13	5	28%	8%	78	-0.3	221/291/343	122	286	14	4	26%	8%	80	-0.1
✕Sicnarf Loopstok 2016 · A	23	41→36	49→50	53→50	39	208/269/355	147	289	16	9	33%	6%	75	-0.5	208/272/340	132	295	14	10	33%	6%	73	-0.6	202/272/344	143	283	16	9	33%	6%	74	-0.3
✕Cooper Bowman 2022 · A	22	44	45	56→60	41	214/289/346	132	303	12	19	32%	7%	81	-0.1	204/281/321	117	287	12	34	31%	8%	72	-0.7	210/283/330	120	279	11	40	27%	8%	72	-0.5
✕Timothy Moss 2006 · A	24	45→44	47→50	52→55	39	221/285/365	144	320	14	18	34%	6%	84	+0.1	211/269/341	130	318	12	17	35%	6%	72	-0.7	198/253/331	132	303	11	20	37%	5%	61	-1.4
✕Braxton Fulford 2023 · A	24	44→41	47→50	52→50	44	216/299/348	131	298	14	10	31%	8%	85	+0.2	213/288/349	136	291	14	10	30%	7%	82	-0.0	207/283/351	144	282	15	9	30%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Kyle Datres 2021 · A	25	42→43	47→50	52→55	42	210/279/353	142	282	14	15	30%	7%	78	-0.3	210/288/346	136	286	16	22	31%	8%	81	-0.1	204/288/337	133	275	16	27	30%	9%	77	-0.2
✕Gabriel Rincones Jr. 2024 · A	23	41→42	47→50	54→55	42	207/279/346	139	294	14	18	33%	8%	77	-0.3	212/287/351	139	290	15	20	30%	8%	81	-0.1	206/286/345	139	274	16	20	29%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Tyler McDonough 2022 · A	23	48→45	46→45	54→55	46	233/298/368	134	310	12	9	28%	8%	88	+0.5	206/258/306	100	317	8	18	35%	6%	59	-1.7	208/275/320	112	298	11	20	32%	7%	65	-0.8
✕Tucker Mitchell 2024 · A	23	43	47→50	50→45	40	210/286/337	127	310	15	9	35%	7%	78	-0.3	198/250/292	94	278	10	7	31%	5%	53	-2.1	162/205/229	67	228	8	5	32%	4%	18	-1.7
✕Jack Brannigan 2024 · A	23	42	50	54→50	43	209/290/360	151	317	19	19	38%	9%	84	+0.2	195/271/346	151	282	18	14	36%	8%	74	-0.5	175/254/322	147	250	17	12	36%	8%	60	-0.8
●Ronny Simon 2022 · A	22	39→49	49→50	53→60	43	205/266/353	148	269	16	14	30%	7%	73	-0.6	224/274/367	143	286	16	22	27%	6%	79	-0.2	273/337/383	110	340	8	30	21%	8%	103	+1.3
✕Jorel Ortega 2024 · A	23	43→41	45	53→50	44	208/284/335	128	304	11	16	33%	9%	76	-0.4	183/254/294	111	266	12	14	34%	8%	56	-1.9	154/227/250	96	222	12	14	35%	8%	33	-1.8
✕Jose Acosta 2023 · A	23	39	45	49→55	37	194/253/316	122	299	13	16	38%	6%	60	-1.6	193/246/301	108	278	10	17	33%	6%	53	-2.1	169/217/263	95	233	9	22	31%	5%	31	-1.0

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps