Darwin Roa

P FCL Pirates

Age 20 RHP 5'10" / 188 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKDSL Pirates G…	8	0	10	2.79	5.07	19.6%	25.5%	—	K 13.3% · BB 31.9% · FIP 6.01
2026	19	ROKPIT	5	5	12	2.19	4.15	28.1%	26.3%	—	K 19.1% · BB 32.9% · FIP 5.65
2027PROJ	20	MLBPIT	1	1	7	5.77	5.77	21.9%	20.0%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBPIT	2	2	10	5.43	5.30	22.4%	16.8%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 6, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 80%

CompsChris Viall (age 20) · Jace Beck (age 21) · Trayson Kubo (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 126

ERA5.77

FIP5.77

K%21.9%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%1.9%

Proj IP7

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	8	0	10	51	10	13	0	0%	1.2	13.3%	31.9%	-18.5%	0.0%	2.79	6.01	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	8	0	10	51	10	13	0	0%	1.2	13.3%	31.9%	-18.5%	0.0%	2.79	6.01	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Gold	8	0	10	51	10	13	0	0%	1.2	19.6%	25.5%	-5.9%	0.0%	2.79	5.07	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	5	5	12	57	16	15	0	100%	2.5	19.1%	32.9%	-13.8%	0.0%	2.19	5.65	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	5	5	12	57	16	15	0	100%	2.5	19.1%	32.9%	-13.8%	0.0%	2.19	5.65	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	5	5	12	57	16	15	0	100%	2.5	28.1%	26.3%	1.8%	0.0%	2.19	4.15	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	PIT	1	1	7	30	6	6	1	100%	7.0	21.9%	20.0%	1.9%	2.9%	5.77	5.77	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	PIT	4	4	20	84	19	14	2	100%	5.0	22.4%	16.8%	5.6%	2.9%	5.43	5.30	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	PIT	2	2	10	42	9	7	1	100%	5.0	22.4%	16.8%	5.6%	2.9%	5.43	5.30	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	10	42	9	7	1	100%	4.9	22.4%	16.8%	5.6%	2.9%	5.43	4.92	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	41	200	844	183	142	20	100%	4.8	22.4%	16.8%	5.6%	2.9%	5.43	4.92	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		13	5	22	108	18	35	0	38%	1.7	16.4%	32.4%	-16.0%	0.0%	2.45	5.82	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	45	200	982	161	318	0	38%	1.7	16.4%	32.4%	-16.0%	0.0%	2.45	5.82	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Darwin Roa (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.77	21.9%	20.0%	2.9%	—	5.30	22.4%	5.6%	20	-0.47	—	—	—
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	84
Jace Beck R 2021 · 5.13 FIP	21	SP-	5.13	21.1%	23.7%	1.5%	.347	5.32	25.7%	2.8%	50	+0.19	4.03	216	83
Trayson Kubo R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SW	5.01	19.8%	15.6%	2.9%	.450	4.82	17.7%	1.4%	66	-0.19	4.48	107	81
Keegan Zinn R 2024 · 6.40 FIP	19	SP-	6.40	19.1%	19.5%	4.4%	.318	5.80	19.0%	-1.9%	112	-0.60	4.88	145	80
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	80
Jaydenn Estanista R 2022 · 5.61 FIP	20	SW	5.61	20.2%	16.9%	3.8%	.172	5.14	20.6%	2.4%	123	-0.47	4.59	230	79
Eriq Swan R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.7%	17.3%	2.2%	.371	5.28	19.7%	0.9%	109	+0.43	4.85	132	79
Alex Makarewich R 2024 · 6.15 FIP	22	SP-	6.15	19.7%	26.7%	2.4%	.425	5.15	26.4%	-3.3%	83	-1.00	4.26	110	78
Denny Larrondo R 2021 · 4.77 FIP	19	SW	4.77	22.7%	17.5%	2.5%	.293	5.26	18.1%	-0.4%	155	+0.49	4.48	293	77
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	77
Eddy Peralta R 2023 · 4.65 FIP	20	SP-	4.65	22.0%	19.8%	1.6%	.342	3.96	21.0%	1.7%	86	-0.69	3.73	117	77
Cesar Espinal R 2024 · 5.75 FIP	18	SW	5.75	16.8%	25.5%	1.5%	.300	6.38	15.7%	-1.8%	36	+0.63	4.28	109	75
Junior Mieses R 2019 · 4.87 FIP	19	SP-	4.87	19.9%	19.2%	1.9%	.296	6.10	18.9%	-1.2%	134	+1.23	4.87	236	75
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	75
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	75
Jesús Palacios R 2024 · 5.24 FIP	19	SP-	5.24	19.7%	20.5%	2.2%	.279	4.92	20.4%	-0.6%	36	-0.32	2.43	128	75
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.71	17.6%	1.2%	150	+0.03	4.54	203	75
Wellington Aracena R 2024 · 5.43 FIP	19	SP-	5.43	18.9%	24.7%	1.5%	.343	3.94	20.0%	4.8%	196	-1.49	3.20	304	74
Jhoster Baez R 2024 · 4.57 FIP	19	SP-	4.57	17.3%	14.8%	1.9%	.283	5.93	15.9%	-5.0%	73	+1.36	4.57	110	74
Will Kobos R 2018 · 5.58 FIP	20	SW	5.58	19.3%	16.0%	3.8%	.313	3.46	26.6%	11.6%	76	-2.12	2.44	139	74