Grif Hughes — OGILVIE

Grif Hughes P Fresno Grizzlies

Age 24 LHP 6'4" / 225 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 14 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116125vR 133

ERA5.24

FIP5.24

K%19.3%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%5.7%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	0	25	109	22	14	3	0%	2.2	14.2%	15.5%	-1.4%	2.8%	5.84	5.40	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	0	25	109	22	14	3	0%	2.2	14.2%	15.5%	-1.4%	2.8%	5.84	5.40	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	0	25	109	22	14	3	0%	2.2	20.2%	12.8%	7.3%	2.8%	5.84	4.60	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	23	6	70	297	78	19	10	26%	3.1	19.1%	7.5%	11.6%	4.4%	3.20	4.85	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	23	6	70	297	78	19	10	26%	3.1	19.1%	7.5%	11.6%	4.4%	3.20	4.85	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	COL	4	3	15	62	22	2	2	75%	3.8	35.5%	3.2%	32.3%	3.2%	3.52	2.28	—
2026	24	A RAW	COL	14	2	40	168	44	11	5	14%	2.8	26.2%	6.5%	19.6%	3.0%	3.18	3.35	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	COL	5	1	15	67	12	6	3	20%	3.1	17.9%	9.0%	9.0%	4.5%	2.93	5.18	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	COL	66	0	70	295	60	36	9	0%	1.1	20.3%	12.2%	8.1%	3.0%	5.04	4.96	-0.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	COL	66	0	70	295	61	35	9	0%	1.1	20.8%	11.9%	8.9%	3.0%	4.93	4.89	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	COL	66	0	69	290	61	35	9	0%	1.0	20.9%	11.9%	9.1%	3.1%	4.90	4.90	-0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	COL	64	0	67	282	59	34	9	0%	1.0	20.9%	12.0%	8.9%	3.2%	4.93	4.97	-0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	COL	61	0	64	269	56	33	9	0%	1.0	20.6%	12.2%	8.5%	3.3%	5.03	5.10	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	COL	29	0	30	127	26	15	4	0%	1.0	20.3%	12.2%	8.1%	3.0%	5.04	4.96	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	COL	44	0	46	194	40	23	6	0%	1.0	20.8%	11.9%	8.9%	3.0%	4.93	4.89	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	COL	50	0	53	224	47	27	7	0%	1.1	20.9%	11.9%	9.1%	3.1%	4.90	4.90	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	COL	53	0	56	236	49	28	7	0%	1.1	20.9%	12.0%	8.9%	3.2%	4.93	4.97	-0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	COL	53	0	56	236	49	29	8	0%	1.1	20.6%	12.2%	8.5%	3.3%	5.03	5.10	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		230	0	241	1018	211	122	32	0%	1.0	20.8%	12.0%	8.7%	3.1%	4.96	4.59	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	101	27	0%	1.1	20.8%	12.0%	8.7%	3.1%	4.96	4.59	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		34	6	95	406	72	39	16	18%	2.8	17.8%	9.7%	8.1%	4.0%	3.88	5.00	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	13	200	855	152	83	34	18%	2.8	17.8%	9.7%	8.1%	4.0%	3.88	5.00	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grif Hughes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.24	19.3%	13.6%	3.0%	—	4.92	20.7%	8.7%	208	-0.32	—	—	—
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	81
Matt Walker L 2022 · 4.54 FIP	24	SW	4.54	17.7%	12.8%	2.4%	.338	4.73	12.7%	2.7%	41	+0.19	4.21	156	80
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	77
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	77
Kohl Drake L 2023 · 4.81 FIP	23	SW	4.81	16.3%	11.9%	2.9%	.391	4.32	21.8%	12.5%	292	-0.49	3.32	327	76
Randy Labaut L 2021 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	23.2%	14.0%	3.7%	.240	4.68	19.1%	5.7%	190	-0.27	1.91	302	75
Max Roberts L 2021 · 4.85 FIP	24	SW	4.85	19.3%	15.2%	2.6%	.330	4.62	24.5%	8.4%	115	-0.23	4.27	173	75
Caden Monke L 2022 · 5.48 FIP	22	SU	5.48	18.9%	12.8%	4.3%	.323	5.38	19.0%	-0.3%	51	-0.10	4.40	163	74
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	74
Kelly Secrest L 2016 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	18.6%	13.7%	2.1%	.267	3.47	20.8%	10.4%	38	-0.95	3.11	151	74
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	74
Evan Shawver L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	15.9%	16.5%	3.5%	.327	4.11	18.1%	7.1%	162	-1.67	3.92	278	73
Andre Wheeler L 2016 · 5.25 FIP	24	SU	5.25	17.5%	12.1%	3.8%	.347	5.01	14.4%	2.4%	29	-0.24	3.82	150	72
Dalton Stambaugh L 2021 · 5.96 FIP	24	SU	5.96	22.2%	12.7%	5.7%	.258	5.32	15.4%	3.5%	98	-0.64	3.18	148	72
Mac Lardner L 2022 · 5.08 FIP	24	SW	5.08	17.4%	9.4%	4.1%	.318	3.66	17.5%	8.1%	62	-1.42	3.66	186	72
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	71
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	71
Joe Kemlage L 2023 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.6%	11.7%	4.1%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	128	71
John Kilichowski L 2018 · 4.99 FIP	24	SU	4.99	17.6%	16.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	115	71
Russell Smith L 2023 · 5.26 FIP	24	SU	5.26	23.3%	12.8%	4.5%	.343	4.00	19.0%	5.1%	53	-1.26	4.00	175	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	59	20.7%	12.1%	1.20	4.98
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04