Jacob Johnson

P ACL Rangers

Age 21 RHP ROK peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

Scout OFP45ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	20	MIX2 levels	14	13	43	2.51	2.91	26.5%	13.8%	—	K 18.5% · BB 16.9% · FIP 4.07
2027PROJ	21	MLBTEX	7	7	36	5.30	5.30	19.6%	15.0%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBTEX	4	4	20	5.00	4.87	21.1%	12.8%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control50Command55FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 93%

CompsRyan Harvey (age 22) · Juan Nuñez (age 21) · Dane Acker (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%19.6%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%4.6%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL—50

CMD3555

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	43	181	48	25	1	93%	3.1	18.5%	16.9%	1.6%	0.7%	2.51	4.07	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	43	181	48	25	1	93%	3.1	18.5%	16.9%	1.6%	0.7%	2.51	4.07	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	13	43	181	48	25	1	93%	3.1	26.5%	13.8%	12.7%	0.6%	2.51	2.91	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	TEX	7	7	36	152	30	23	4	100%	5.1	19.6%	15.0%	4.6%	2.9%	5.30	5.30	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	TEX	7	7	41	171	36	22	5	100%	5.8	21.1%	12.8%	8.3%	2.8%	5.00	4.87	+0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	TEX	4	4	20	84	18	11	2	100%	5.0	21.1%	12.8%	8.3%	2.8%	5.00	4.87	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	20	84	18	11	2	100%	5.0	21.1%	12.8%	8.3%	2.8%	5.00	4.49	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	39	200	844	180	110	20	100%	5.1	21.1%	12.8%	8.3%	2.8%	5.00	4.49	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		14	13	43	181	34	31	1	93%	3.1	18.5%	16.9%	1.6%	0.7%	2.51	4.07	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	60	200	842	156	142	6	93%	3.1	18.5%	16.9%	1.6%	0.7%	2.51	4.07	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Johnson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	19.6%	15.0%	2.9%	—	4.87	21.1%	8.3%	41	-0.43	—	—	—
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	86
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	86
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.39	20.2%	8.6%	215	-1.21	4.29	257	86
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.38	205	86
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	85
Elvis Luciano R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	17.5%	12.6%	3.1%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	204	83
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	83
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	82
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	3.91	23.8%	12.0%	201	-1.65	3.54	273	82
Blake Whitney R 2018 · 4.11 FIP	22	SP	4.11	19.1%	16.1%	1.1%	.338	6.22	25.6%	13.5%	33	+2.11	3.46	268	82
Victor Mederos R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	21	SP	4.69	15.6%	14.0%	2.1%	.286	5.19	16.4%	5.7%	301	+0.50	3.73	394	82
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	81
Luke Albright R 2021 · 5.77 FIP	21	SP	5.77	16.8%	13.4%	4.4%	.295	5.10	19.4%	5.5%	269	-0.67	4.02	329	81
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.4%	8.5%	211	-0.23	3.28	265	81
Alonzo Tredwell R 2024 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	17.4%	1.4%	.336	4.19	22.0%	9.9%	100	-0.24	4.19	166	80
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.62	17.1%	7.4%	343	-0.97	4.16	409	80
Angel Perez R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	20	SP	4.17	16.9%	15.5%	1.0%	.356	5.03	21.1%	3.0%	94	+0.86	2.78	127	80
Adam Bates R 2024 · 5.12 FIP	18	SP-	5.12	16.2%	14.1%	2.9%	.358	6.39	13.0%	-7.2%	146	+1.27	5.12	183	80
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	79
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	38	20.4%	13.8%	1.10	5.14
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57