Danny Thompson Jr.

P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.2 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	ATOR	10	1	14	0.66	2.73	28.8%	7.7%	—	K 21.3% · BB 9.1% · FIP 3.52
2026	23	MIX2 levels	24	20	100	3.41	2.99	29.7%	9.6%	—	K 23.4% · BB 10.8% · FIP 3.94
2027PROJ	24	MLBTOR	9	9	50	4.47	4.47	22.9%	10.6%	0.3
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBTOR	7	7	40	4.39	4.35	23.2%	9.8%	0.3
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBTOR	10	10	61	4.34	4.32	23.3%	9.6%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$2M2034Arb-2$2M+1

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 7, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 76%

CompsRicky Castro (age 24) · Casey Legumina (age 24) · Ryan Jennings (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%22.9%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%12.3%

Proj IP50

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.1M
2034	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	10	1	14	52	15	4	1	10%	1.4	21.3%	9.1%	12.3%	1.9%	0.66	3.52	—
2025	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	10	1	14	52	15	4	1	10%	1.4	21.3%	9.1%	12.3%	1.9%	0.66	3.52	—
2025	22	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	10	1	14	52	15	4	1	10%	1.4	28.8%	7.7%	21.2%	1.9%	0.66	2.73	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	100	418	124	40	9	83%	4.2	23.4%	10.8%	12.6%	2.6%	3.41	3.94	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	100	418	124	40	9	83%	4.2	23.4%	10.8%	12.6%	2.6%	3.41	3.94	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	20	100	418	124	40	9	83%	4.2	29.7%	9.6%	20.1%	2.2%	3.41	2.99	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	TOR	9	9	50	211	48	22	6	100%	5.6	22.9%	10.6%	12.3%	2.9%	4.47	4.47	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	16	16	91	386	89	38	11	100%	5.7	23.2%	9.8%	13.4%	2.9%	4.39	4.35	+0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	15	15	91	386	90	37	11	100%	6.1	23.3%	9.6%	13.7%	2.9%	4.34	4.32	+0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	15	15	90	380	88	37	11	100%	6.0	23.2%	9.6%	13.6%	2.9%	4.35	4.35	+0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	15	15	87	369	85	36	11	100%	5.8	23.1%	9.7%	13.4%	3.0%	4.40	4.43	+0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	83	352	80	35	11	100%	6.0	22.8%	9.9%	12.9%	3.2%	4.50	4.57	+0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	78	331	81	31	11	100%	6.0	24.5%	9.4%	15.0%	3.4%	4.48	4.47	+0.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	73	309	74	30	11	100%	6.1	24.1%	9.8%	14.3%	3.6%	4.60	4.68	+0.2
2035	32	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	68	285	67	29	11	100%	6.1	23.6%	10.2%	13.4%	3.9%	4.78	4.90	0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	7	7	40	169	39	17	5	100%	5.7	23.2%	9.8%	13.4%	2.9%	4.39	4.35	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	61	258	60	25	7	100%	6.1	23.3%	9.6%	13.7%	2.9%	4.34	4.32	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	70	296	69	28	9	100%	5.8	23.2%	9.6%	13.6%	2.9%	4.35	4.35	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	74	312	72	30	10	100%	6.2	23.1%	9.7%	13.4%	3.0%	4.40	4.43	+0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	73	308	70	31	10	100%	6.1	22.8%	9.9%	12.9%	3.2%	4.50	4.57	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	71	300	73	28	10	100%	5.9	24.5%	9.4%	15.0%	3.4%	4.48	4.47	+0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	67	283	68	28	10	100%	6.1	24.1%	9.8%	14.3%	3.6%	4.60	4.68	+0.2
2035	32	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	63	266	63	27	10	100%	6.3	23.6%	10.2%	13.4%	3.9%	4.78	4.90	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		86	86	518	2186	513	213	71	100%	6.0	23.5%	9.8%	13.7%	3.2%	4.48	4.13	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	198	82	27	100%	6.0	23.5%	9.8%	13.7%	3.2%	4.48	4.13	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		34	21	114	470	109	50	12	62%	3.4	23.2%	10.6%	12.5%	2.6%	3.08	3.89	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	37	200	825	191	88	21	62%	3.4	23.2%	10.6%	12.5%	2.6%	3.08	3.89	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Danny Thompson Jr. (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	22.9%	10.6%	2.9%	—	4.34	23.2%	13.5%	273	-0.13	—	—	—
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	88
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	86
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.31	22.9%	10.2%	109	+0.88	3.43	142	86
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	86
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	84
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	84
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.96	18.7%	8.6%	306	+1.25	3.61	441	84
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	83
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	83
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	81
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	79
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	79
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	79
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	694	79
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	79
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	79
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	79
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	79
James McArthur R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP-	3.81	19.7%	7.9%	2.5%	.310	4.12	21.9%	14.0%	194	+0.31	3.48	352	78
Wil Jensen R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	24	SP-	4.69	20.2%	8.6%	4.0%	.261	4.20	21.4%	11.1%	173	-0.49	3.48	368	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	79	23.4%	9.8%	1.23	4.47
Dave Hamilton ('72-'80, 2 WAR*)	3.5	78	21.3%*	10.2%*	1.13*	4.58*
Wes Stock ('59-'67, 2 WAR*)	2.6	74	22.3%*	9.6%*	1.29*	4.22*
Xavier Hernandez ('89-'98, 3 WAR*)	3.4	67	23.9%*	9.1%*	1.12*	4.20*
David Hernandez ('19)	3.2	65	23.9%	9.1%	1.22	4.12
Chris Stratton ('25)	3.1	69	21.0%	9.5%	1.02	4.64
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11