Matthew Miura

OF Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 23 R/R 5'11" / 185 lbs A HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1545ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	ASTL	91	.197/.330/.250	1	7	44	—	.185/.275/.235
2026	22	ASTL	253	.279/.405/.375	3	22	88	—	.244/.337/.317
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBSTL	363	.233/.319/.341	6	9	89	0.2
2028PROJ30% MLB	24	MLBSTL	54	.236/.321/.347	1	1	92	0.1
2029PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBSTL	108	.237/.321/.352	2	3	93	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

K%89

Whiff%86

Chase%79

Z-Con%77

Speed72

BB%68

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 1.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 96%

CompsMaikel Garcia (age 22) · Adalberto Santos (age 24) · Sal Frelick (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 149 proj PA

wRC+†89

AVG/OBP/SLG.231 / .316 / .338

PA149

HR2

K%24

BB%10

ISO108

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 65 / POW 39

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT65

scouting grade only

POWER39

scouting grade only

EYE65

scouting grade only

SPEED66

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	91	76	15	1	0	1	15	13	0	7	3	197	330	250	580	53	226	14	16	281	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	253	208	58	9	1	3	41	31	3	22	5	279	405	375	780	96	314	12	16	359	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	91	81	15	1	0	1	10	18	0	7	3	185	275	235	509	49	219	20	11	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	253	221	54	8	1	2	28	42	3	22	5	244	337	317	654	72	291	17	11	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	91	81	15	1	0	1	10	18	0	7	3	185	275	235	509	49	226	20	11	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	91	76	15	1	0	1	15	13	0	7	3	197	330	250	580	53	226	14	16	281	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	253	221	54	8	1	2	28	42	3	22	5	244	337	317	654	72	292	17	11	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	253	208	58	9	1	3	41	31	3	22	5	279	405	375	780	96	314	12	16	359	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	91	81	15	1	0	1	10	18	0	7	3	185	275	235	509	49	219	20	11	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	253	220	54	8	1	2	28	42	3	22	5	245	337	318	655	73	291	17	11	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	91	81	15	1	0	1	10	18	0	7	3	185	275	235	509	49	219	20	11	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	253	220	54	8	1	2	28	42	3	22	5	245	337	318	655	73	291	17	11	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	STL	0%	363	320	75	13	2	6	37	86	3	9	2	233	319	341	660	108	299	24	10	300	89	-5	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	STL	30%	181	159	38	7	1	3	18	43	2	4	1	236	321	349	670	113	299	24	10	304	92	-2	+0	+0	-1	+4	0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	STL	44%	244	215	50	9	1	4	25	57	2	6	1	237	321	354	675	117	299	23	10	306	93	-2	+1	+0	-1	+5	0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	STL	51%	297	262	63	11	2	6	30	69	3	7	2	237	321	357	678	120	298	23	10	306	94	-2	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	STL	52%	324	286	68	12	2	6	32	76	3	7	2	236	320	357	677	120	297	23	10	306	93	-3	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	STL	53%	336	297	69	12	2	6	33	79	3	6	2	235	318	355	673	120	296	24	10	304	92	-3	+0	-1	-2	+7	0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	STL	53%	334	295	69	12	2	6	33	80	3	5	1	233	315	348	664	116	295	24	10	301	90	-4	+1	-1	-2	+7	0.0
2034	30	MLB MLE	STL	52%	329	291	68	12	2	6	32	80	3	3	1	230	312	340	652	111	293	24	10	296	86	-5	+0	-2	-2	+7	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	STL	30%	54	49	11	2	0	1	5	13	0	1	0	236	321	347	668	111	301	24	9	303	92	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	STL	44%	108	95	23	4	1	2	11	25	1	3	1	237	321	352	673	115	301	23	10	305	93	-1	+0	+0	-1	+2	0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	STL	51%	151	134	32	6	1	3	15	35	1	3	1	237	321	355	676	117	300	23	10	306	94	-1	+0	+0	-1	+3	0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	STL	52%	170	149	36	7	1	3	17	40	2	4	1	237	320	354	675	118	299	24	10	305	93	-1	+0	+0	-1	+4	0.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	STL	53%	179	157	37	7	1	3	18	42	2	3	1	236	318	352	671	117	298	23	10	304	92	-2	+0	-0	-1	+4	0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	STL	53%	175	155	37	7	1	3	17	42	1	3	1	233	316	346	662	113	297	24	10	300	90	-2	+0	-1	-1	+4	0.0
2034	30	MLB CTX	STL	52%	171	151	35	6	1	3	17	41	1	2	1	230	312	339	651	108	295	24	10	295	86	-3	+0	-1	-1	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1008	890	211	39	6	18	100	238	8	19	6	237	320	355	675	118	302	24	10	302	89	-11	+1	-2	-6	+22	0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	574	136	25	4	12	64	153	5	12	4	237	319	357	676	120	300	24	10	302	89	-7	+1	-1	-4	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	2538	2239	524	89	14	42	256	579	23	71	19	234	319	343	661	109	296	23	10	300	89	-23	+4	-4	-13	+48	1.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	135	23	4	11	66	148	6	18	5	236	321	347	668	112	297	23	10	300	89	-7	+1	-1	-4	+14	0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 APalm Beach Cardinals · 253 PAwOBA .353 → .298 (−54)K% 12.3% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.25%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	16.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.21%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.990	11.07%
HBP% /PA	1.19%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	0.92%
Singles /BIP	25.42%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.037	×0.990	24.00%
Doubles /BIP	5.08%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.037	×0.990	4.33%
Triples /BIP	0.56%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.037	×0.990	0.53%
Home runs /BIP	1.69%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.990	1.34%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.

Result: wOBA .353 → .298; ISO .096 → .082; BABIP .314 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 APalm Beach Cardinals · 91 PAwOBA .275 → .233 (−43)K% 14.3% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.29%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	19.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.48%	÷0.988	×0.690	—	—	11.51%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	—	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.63%	÷0.995	×0.920	×1.050	—	20.04%
Doubles /BIP	1.59%	÷0.896	×0.830	×1.050	—	1.54%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.910	×1.050	—	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.59%	÷0.973	×0.800	—	—	1.30%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 99, 2B 79, 3B 80, K 100, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .275 → .233; ISO .053 → .045; BABIP .226 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Willie Harrislast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,743 PA	4.1	2,743	39	106	241	331	351	-11	-2	5.3	6.2
/162	664	9	26	-2.7	-0.5	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Gabe Grosslast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,682 PA	2.5	1,682	40	22	239	330	385	-14	+11	5.1	5.1
/162	664	16	9	-5.7	+4.4	2.0	pk7: 5
#3Darren Bragg'94-'04 * career totals — 10 seasons, 2,835 PA	4.3	2,835	46	56	243*	324*	368*	-18	+2	2.5	3.8
/162	664	11	13	-4.1	+0.4	0.6	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	1.7	1,157	21	22	235	315	352	-7	+0	1.5	1.4
/162	664	12	13	-4.0	+0.0	0.8	pk7: 1
#4Carl Warwick'61-'66 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,616 PA	2.4	1,616	31	13	245*	309*	381*	-9	-1	1.4	1.4
/162	664	13	5	-3.6	-0.6	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#6James Mouton'94-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	18	109	235*	314*	329*	-11	-0	0.7	1.0
/162	664	7	40	-4.2	-0.1	0.3	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matthew Miura (OGILVIE)	23	60→65	34→39	61→66	65	231/316/338	107	299	2	4	24%	10%	89	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Maikel Garcia 2022 · A	22	51→58	39→45	58→60	51	240/305/333	93	302	5	22	21%	9%	82	-0.0	250/306/350	100	317	7	27	22%	8%	86	+0.3	260/322/390	130	293	10	24	14%	8%	102	+1.4
✕Adalberto Santos 2012 · A	24	51→55	43→45	59→55	48	244/303/364	120	295	8	21	20%	7%	88	+0.5	256/317/349	93	320	6	20	20%	7%	91	+0.6	262/325/343	81	331	5	21	21%	8%	89	+0.3
●Sal Frelick 2022 · A	22	53→63	40→45	56→55	49	250/311/350	101	314	7	17	22%	8%	88	+0.5	269/331/377	108	313	8	19	15%	8%	102	+1.5	271/336/373	101	313	6	20	15%	8%	101	+1.2
✕Nick Van Stratten 2008 · A	23	49→58	40	57→55	50	231/292/334	104	255	6	12	13%	6%	78	-0.3	253/307/351	98	300	4	12	16%	6%	86	+0.3	297/333/377	79	333	3	23	11%	4%	98	+0.5
✕Cal Stevenson 2019 · A	22	56	39→45	59→60	63	261/353/361	100	302	4	16	14%	13%	107	+1.8	233/306/323	90	291	7	13	21%	10%	81	-0.1	243/336/358	114	313	9	30	23%	12%	99	+0.7
✕Dru Baker 2023 · A	23	49→57	44→40	58→60	45	236/301/356	120	326	11	24	30%	8%	86	+0.3	240/293/333	93	336	8	32	29%	6%	78	-0.3	239/291/316	77	338	6	36	29%	5%	70	-0.7
✕Marty Costes 2019 · A	23	46→56	42→45	53→50	45	221/301/333	112	271	8	11	20%	6%	82	+0.0	232/308/342	110	284	9	10	21%	8%	86	+0.3	252/337/361	108	322	8	16	22%	8%	99	+0.6
✕Nick Loftin 2022 · A	23	46→53	45	53→50	48	228/293/356	128	271	11	11	20%	7%	84	+0.1	235/299/357	122	275	13	14	19%	7%	86	+0.3	231/320/355	124	264	10	10	16%	10%	94	+0.6
✕Jose Constanza 2007 · A	23	55→64	37→40	58→60	51	257/325/335	78	331	3	22	22%	9%	90	+0.6	255/305/319	64	319	2	27	19%	7%	78	-0.3	288/334/346	58	335	2	37	14%	6%	91	+0.6
●Michael Reed 2015 · A	22	50→60	39→45	55	51	229/315/324	95	324	4	20	28%	10%	84	+0.2	216/300/315	99	314	6	20	30%	10%	77	-0.3	220/309/321	102	329	11	16	33%	10%	80	-0.1
●Fernando Perez 2006 · A	23	51→61	39→45	60	48	244/296/340	96	295	6	27	19%	7%	80	-0.2	260/324/359	99	359	6	26	27%	8%	95	+1.0	268/336/371	103	383	6	30	29%	9%	98	+1.2
●Kelby Tomlinson 2012 · A	22	49→59	40	56→60	44	234/283/338	104	296	6	13	22%	6%	75	-0.5	221/277/278	57	300	2	21	25%	7%	59	-1.7	281/338/348	67	341	3	24	17%	7%	96	+0.7
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2024 · A	22	52→61	43→45	53→50	48	249/311/362	113	301	9	14	20%	7%	91	+0.7	256/314/367	111	304	10	14	18%	7%	94	+0.9	261/323/368	107	303	10	16	17%	7%	95	+0.6
✕Corey Toups 2016 · A	23	49→50	41→45	56→50	46	234/295/343	109	305	7	17	25%	7%	81	-0.1	217/279/332	115	309	9	16	31%	7%	73	-0.6	206/271/319	113	301	10	16	33%	7%	64	-0.9
✕Joey Rickard 2014 · A	23	46→56	41→45	52→55	48	219/300/322	104	288	7	16	25%	8%	79	-0.2	243/317/336	93	310	5	16	21%	9%	88	+0.4	260/325/362	103	324	6	16	20%	8%	95	+0.6
●Matt Duffy 2014 · A	23	51→61	45	53→50	50	251/311/373	122	290	12	16	18%	8%	94	+0.9	281/327/393	112	334	9	15	18%	6%	104	+1.6	289/335/400	111	340	8	14	17%	6%	109	+1.6
✕Cole Gillespie 2007 · A	23	48→57	46→50	52→50	51	236/313/363	127	289	13	15	22%	9%	93	+0.8	231/311/366	135	298	12	13	25%	10%	93	+0.8	234/310/381	148	295	12	14	24%	9%	94	+0.7
✕Brent Morel 2009 · A	22	52→60	43→50	54→50	45	252/299/362	110	299	11	12	20%	6%	86	+0.3	256/292/388	132	298	13	12	18%	5%	91	+0.6	259/294/393	134	296	14	11	17%	4%	90	+0.5
✕Evan Frey 2009 · A	23	56→59	37→40	56→55	50	260/320/342	82	319	4	19	19%	8%	89	+0.5	250/310/320	70	311	2	22	18%	7%	80	-0.1	246/309/311	64	308	1	24	19%	8%	76	-0.4
✕Mauricio Dubón 2017 · AA	23	57→61	39→50	56→55	45	269/310/362	94	318	5	20	17%	5%	90	+0.6	253/290/362	109	299	10	22	18%	5%	83	+0.1	259/304/392	134	294	16	11	18%	5%	94	+0.6

Matthew Miura

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps