Michael Reed
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 24 | AAMIL | 205 | .208/.348/.351 | 7 | 5 | 45 | — | .167/.265/.250 |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 404 | .342/.455/.520 | 11 | 10 | 125 | — | .288/.373/.435 |
| 2019 | 26 | AAASF | 60 | .226/.317/.358 | 1 | 2 | 34 | — | .164/.233/.273 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 18 | ROK | AZL Brewers | — | 62 | 56 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 232 | 295 | 375 | 670 | 143 | 333 | 27 | 8 | 293 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | A+ | Brevard County Manatees | — | 41 | 32 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 281 | 425 | 281 | 706 | 375 | 20 | 20 | 335 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK | Helena Brewers | — | 208 | 179 | 44 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 58 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 246 | 338 | 302 | 640 | 56 | 355 | 28 | 12 | 294 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 539 | 455 | 130 | 23 | 13 | 1 | 71 | 108 | 4 | 26 | 10 | 286 | 387 | 400 | 787 | 114 | 371 | 20 | 13 | 351 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ | Brevard County Manatees | — | 457 | 365 | 93 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 78 | 79 | 9 | 33 | 13 | 255 | 398 | 378 | 776 | 123 | 310 | 17 | 17 | 355 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AAA | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 148 | 126 | 31 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 31 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 246 | 354 | 381 | 735 | 135 | 323 | 21 | 14 | 332 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 377 | 313 | 87 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 53 | 80 | 3 | 25 | 7 | 278 | 388 | 422 | 809 | 144 | 347 | 21 | 14 | 358 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 49 | 38 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 211 | 388 | 237 | 625 | 26 | 258 | 14 | 22 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | — | 24 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 182 | 250 | 182 | 432 | 267 | 29 | 8 | 209 | 28 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +1 | 0.1 | |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 492 | 411 | 102 | 20 | 2 | 8 | 74 | 124 | 4 | 20 | 8 | 248 | 368 | 365 | 733 | 117 | 333 | 25 | 15 | 336 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 205 | 168 | 35 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 35 | 59 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 208 | 348 | 351 | 699 | 143 | 272 | 29 | 17 | 323 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 229 | 193 | 70 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 55 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 363 | 461 | 539 | 999 | 176 | 477 | 24 | 14 | 441 | 131 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 175 | 140 | 44 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 30 | 43 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 314 | 448 | 493 | 941 | 179 | 426 | 25 | 17 | 419 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 60 | 53 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 226 | 317 | 358 | 675 | 132 | 355 | 35 | 12 | 307 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 24 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 182 | 250 | 182 | 432 | 267 | 29 | 8 | 209 | 28 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +1 | 0.1 | |||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Brewers | — | 62 | 59 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 153 | 180 | 237 | 418 | 85 | 260 | 39 | 3 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | A+ MLE | Brevard County Manatees | — | 41 | 34 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 235 | 350 | 235 | 585 | 348 | 27 | 15 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | Helena Brewers | — | 208 | 188 | 34 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 84 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 181 | 245 | 223 | 469 | 43 | 298 | 40 | 7 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 539 | 481 | 122 | 19 | 12 | 1 | 45 | 151 | 4 | 26 | 10 | 254 | 323 | 349 | 672 | 96 | 356 | 28 | 8 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ MLE | Brevard County Manatees | — | 457 | 385 | 84 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 58 | 118 | 9 | 33 | 13 | 218 | 334 | 322 | 656 | 104 | 300 | 26 | 13 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AAA MLE | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 148 | 131 | 25 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 41 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 191 | 279 | 275 | 554 | 84 | 274 | 28 | 10 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 377 | 330 | 82 | 20 | 5 | 4 | 36 | 100 | 3 | 25 | 7 | 248 | 328 | 376 | 704 | 127 | 325 | 27 | 10 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MLB MLE | Milwaukee Brewers | — | 24 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 182 | 250 | 182 | 432 | 267 | 29 | 8 | 210 | 28 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +1 | 0.1 | |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA MLE | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 492 | 433 | 84 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 52 | 166 | 4 | 20 | 8 | 194 | 286 | 273 | 559 | 79 | 293 | 34 | 11 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 205 | 180 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 75 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 167 | 265 | 250 | 515 | 83 | 249 | 37 | 11 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 229 | 203 | 62 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 69 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 305 | 382 | 448 | 830 | 143 | 426 | 30 | 10 | 362 | 131 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 175 | 151 | 40 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 53 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 265 | 362 | 417 | 779 | 152 | 372 | 30 | 11 | 339 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 60 | 55 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 164 | 233 | 273 | 506 | 109 | 312 | 47 | 8 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Brewers | — | 62 | 59 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 153 | 180 | 237 | 418 | 85 | 257 | 39 | 3 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Brewers | — | 62 | 56 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 232 | 295 | 375 | 670 | 143 | 333 | 27 | 8 | 293 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 249 | 223 | 42 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 95 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 188 | 258 | 224 | 482 | 36 | 320 | 38 | 8 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 249 | 211 | 53 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 32 | 66 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 251 | 352 | 299 | 651 | 47 | 359 | 27 | 13 | 300 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 539 | 481 | 122 | 19 | 12 | 1 | 45 | 151 | 4 | 26 | 10 | 254 | 323 | 349 | 672 | 96 | 366 | 28 | 8 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A RAW | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 539 | 455 | 130 | 23 | 13 | 1 | 71 | 108 | 4 | 26 | 10 | 286 | 387 | 400 | 787 | 114 | 371 | 20 | 13 | 351 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ MLE | Brevard County Manatees | — | 457 | 385 | 84 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 58 | 118 | 9 | 33 | 13 | 218 | 334 | 322 | 656 | 104 | 301 | 26 | 13 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ RAW | Brevard County Manatees | — | 457 | 365 | 93 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 78 | 79 | 9 | 33 | 13 | 255 | 398 | 378 | 776 | 123 | 310 | 17 | 17 | 355 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 574 | 506 | 117 | 32 | 7 | 4 | 55 | 154 | 4 | 29 | 9 | 231 | 312 | 346 | 657 | 115 | 317 | 27 | 10 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 574 | 477 | 126 | 34 | 7 | 5 | 84 | 118 | 4 | 29 | 9 | 264 | 379 | 396 | 775 | 132 | 333 | 21 | 15 | 347 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 516 | 455 | 88 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 54 | 173 | 4 | 21 | 8 | 193 | 285 | 268 | 553 | 75 | 294 | 34 | 10 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 516 | 433 | 106 | 20 | 2 | 8 | 76 | 131 | 4 | 21 | 8 | 245 | 363 | 356 | 718 | 111 | 330 | 25 | 15 | 330 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 205 | 180 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 75 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 167 | 265 | 250 | 515 | 83 | 255 | 37 | 11 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA RAW | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 205 | 168 | 35 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 35 | 59 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 208 | 348 | 351 | 699 | 143 | 272 | 29 | 17 | 323 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 404 | 354 | 101 | 22 | 0 | 10 | 41 | 123 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 285 | 371 | 432 | 803 | 147 | 408 | 30 | 10 | 352 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 404 | 333 | 114 | 26 | 0 | 11 | 62 | 98 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 342 | 455 | 520 | 975 | 177 | 456 | 24 | 15 | 432 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 60 | 55 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 164 | 233 | 273 | 506 | 109 | 308 | 47 | 8 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA RAW | Sacramento River Cats | — | 60 | 53 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 226 | 317 | 358 | 675 | 132 | 355 | 35 | 12 | 307 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Brewers | — | 62 | 60 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 150 | 180 | 233 | 414 | 83 | 260 | 39 | 3 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 249 | 226 | 42 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 95 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 186 | 258 | 221 | 479 | 35 | 306 | 38 | 8 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 539 | 485 | 122 | 19 | 12 | 1 | 45 | 151 | 4 | 26 | 10 | 252 | 323 | 346 | 669 | 95 | 356 | 28 | 8 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ MLE | Brevard County Manatees | — | 457 | 387 | 84 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 58 | 118 | 9 | 33 | 13 | 217 | 334 | 320 | 654 | 103 | 300 | 26 | 13 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 574 | 510 | 117 | 32 | 7 | 4 | 55 | 154 | 4 | 29 | 9 | 229 | 312 | 343 | 655 | 114 | 311 | 27 | 10 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 516 | 453 | 88 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 54 | 173 | 4 | 21 | 8 | 194 | 285 | 269 | 554 | 75 | 292 | 34 | 10 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 205 | 179 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 75 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 168 | 265 | 251 | 516 | 84 | 249 | 37 | 11 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 404 | 353 | 101 | 22 | 0 | 10 | 41 | 123 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 286 | 371 | 433 | 804 | 147 | 403 | 30 | 10 | 352 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 60 | 55 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 164 | 233 | 273 | 506 | 109 | 312 | 47 | 8 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 24 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 182 | 250 | 182 | 432 | 267 | 29 | 8 | 209 | 77 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +1 | 0.1 | ||
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 596 | 108 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 54 | 190 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 181 | 249 | 181 | 430 | 266 | 29 | 8 | 209 | 77 | -56 | +5 | +6 | +50 | +14 | 2.0 | ||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3066 | 2698 | 602 | 119 | 26 | 31 | 303 | 941 | 30 | 141 | 48 | 223 | 308 | 321 | 629 | 98 | 327 | 31 | 10 | 283 | 77 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +1 | 0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 572 | 128 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 64 | 199 | 6 | 30 | 10 | 224 | 308 | 325 | 633 | 101 | 327 | 31 | 10 | 283 | 77 | -56 | +5 | +6 | +50 | +14 | 2.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAASacramento River Cats · 60 PAwOBA .300 → .218 (−82)K% 35.0% → 46.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.00% | ÷0.971 | ×1.290 | — | — | 46.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.67% | ÷0.980 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 8.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.88% | ÷0.982 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.003 | 20.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷0.981 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.003 | 10.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.008 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.12% | ÷1.027 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 2.38% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 96, 2B 96, 3B 102, K 94, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .300 → .218; ISO .132 → .089; BABIP .355 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 229 PAwOBA .430 → .362 (−67)K% 24.0% → 30.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.02% | ÷0.952 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.10% | ÷0.947 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 9.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.31% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.23% | ÷1.010 | ×0.930 | ×0.977 | ×1.018 | 33.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.42% | ÷0.995 | ×0.830 | ×0.977 | ×1.018 | 7.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.116 | ×0.970 | ×0.977 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.07% | ÷0.970 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 4.47% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 102, 2B 99, 3B 123, K 90, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .430 → .362; ISO .176 → .148; BABIP .477 → .426. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAMississippi Braves · 175 PAwOBA .410 → .339 (−71)K% 24.6% → 30.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.57% | ÷0.985 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.57% | ÷1.037 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 10.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.29% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 1.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.84% | ÷0.993 | ×0.920 | ×0.969 | ×0.988 | 24.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.40% | ÷1.013 | ×0.910 | ×0.969 | ×0.988 | 11.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.110 | ×0.880 | ×0.969 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.12% | ÷0.897 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 3.64% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 99, 2B 103, 3B 122, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .410 → .339; ISO .179 → .160; BABIP .426 → .372. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AABiloxi Shuckers · 205 PAwOBA .317 → .235 (−82)K% 28.8% → 36.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.78% | ÷0.959 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.07% | ÷1.035 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 11.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.49% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.94% | ÷0.986 | ×0.920 | ×1.011 | ×0.998 | 21.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.75% | ÷0.946 | ×0.910 | ×1.011 | ×0.998 | 2.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.915 | ×0.880 | ×1.011 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.42% | ÷1.393 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.68% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 179, 1B 97, 2B 89, 3B 83, K 92, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .317 → .235; ISO .143 → .087; BABIP .272 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 492 PAwOBA .329 → .258 (−71)K% 25.2% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.20% | ÷0.964 | ×1.290 | — | — | 33.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.84% | ÷1.052 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.048 | 10.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.81% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.048 | 0.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.09% | ÷1.046 | ×0.900 | ×1.030 | ×1.048 | 23.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.97% | ÷1.196 | ×0.810 | ×1.030 | ×1.048 | 5.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.030 | ×1.048 | 0.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.79% | ÷0.973 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.048 | 2.34% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 109, 2B 139, 3B 130, K 93, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .329 → .258; ISO .117 → .087; BABIP .333 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AABiloxi Shuckers · 377 PAwOBA .356 → .311 (−45)K% 21.2% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.22% | ÷0.973 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.79% | ÷1.018 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 9.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.80% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.46% | ÷1.030 | ×0.920 | ×0.999 | ×1.027 | 22.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.58% | ÷0.943 | ×0.910 | ×0.999 | ×1.027 | 8.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.15% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.999 | ×1.027 | 2.15% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.15% | ÷1.084 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 1.63% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 106, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .356 → .311; ISO .144 → .135; BABIP .347 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 148 PAwOBA .326 → .256 (−70)K% 20.9% → 27.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.95% | ÷0.979 | ×1.290 | — | — | 27.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.51% | ÷1.015 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.050 | 9.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.68% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.050 | 0.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.84% | ÷1.044 | ×0.900 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 16.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.68% | ÷1.214 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 10.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.11% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 1.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.886 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 109, 2B 143, 3B 130, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .326 → .256; ISO .135 → .097; BABIP .323 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Brevard County Manatees · 457 PAwOBA .349 → .301 (−48)K% 17.3% → 25.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.29% | ÷0.947 | ×1.420 | — | — | 25.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.07% | ÷1.029 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 12.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.97% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 1.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.03% | ÷1.024 | ×0.920 | ×1.034 | ×1.012 | 20.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.99% | ÷0.937 | ×0.960 | ×1.034 | ×1.012 | 7.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.75% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×1.034 | ×1.012 | 1.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.75% | ÷0.954 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 1.63% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 105, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 89, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .349 → .301; ISO .123 → .117; BABIP .310 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .