Brent Morel
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 26 | AAACWS | 452 | .266/.351/.403 | 6 | 14 | 86 | — | .240/.306/.355 | |
| 2013 | 26 | MLBCWS | 30 | .200/.333/.200 | 0 | 1 | 67 | 0.1 | ||
| 2014 | 27 | AAAPIT | 376 | .271/.340/.375 | 4 | 7 | 68 | — | .232/.286/.328 | |
| 2014 | 27 | MLBPIT | 41 | .179/.220/.231 | 0 | 0 | 13 | -0.2 | ||
| 2015 | 28 | AAAMIL | 472 | .286/.340/.448 | 11 | 10 | 78 | — | .242/.282/.372 | |
| 2016 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2017 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2018 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2019 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2020 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2021 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2022 | 35 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 36 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 37 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 38 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 39 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 21 | A | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 192 | 172 | 51 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 28 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 297 | 363 | 459 | 822 | 163 | 321 | 15 | 8 | 362 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 21 | ROK | Great Falls Voyagers | — | 71 | 64 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 375 | 437 | 438 | 874 | 62 | 421 | 10 | 8 | 395 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 22 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 526 | 481 | 135 | 33 | 1 | 16 | 38 | 66 | 3 | 25 | 9 | 281 | 337 | 453 | 790 | 173 | 296 | 13 | 7 | 348 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | — | 70 | 65 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 231 | 275 | 415 | 691 | 185 | 261 | 24 | 6 | 300 | 88 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2010 | 23 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 324 | 306 | 98 | 24 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 50 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 320 | 348 | 503 | 851 | 183 | 363 | 15 | 4 | 368 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 203 | 184 | 60 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 36 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 326 | 380 | 440 | 820 | 114 | 392 | 18 | 7 | 362 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 24 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | — | 444 | 413 | 101 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 57 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 245 | 288 | 366 | 653 | 121 | 262 | 13 | 5 | 289 | 81 | -10 | -1 | +2 | +2 | +10 | 0.3 |
| 2012 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | — | 125 | 113 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 39 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 177 | 225 | 195 | 420 | 18 | 270 | 31 | 6 | 190 | 15 | -13 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +3 | -0.9 |
| 2012 | 25 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 132 | 124 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 242 | 250 | 492 | 56 | 242 | 21 | 6 | 227 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 24 | 22 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 292 | 409 | 701 | 182 | 278 | 17 | 8 | 310 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | — | 30 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 200 | 333 | 200 | 533 | 278 | 23 | 17 | 267 | 67 | -1 | -0 | +0 | +2 | +1 | 0.1 | |
| 2013 | 26 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 452 | 395 | 105 | 30 | 3 | 6 | 48 | 104 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 266 | 351 | 403 | 754 | 137 | 344 | 23 | 11 | 336 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 41 | 39 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 179 | 220 | 231 | 450 | 51 | 233 | 22 | 5 | 207 | 13 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| 2014 | 27 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 376 | 336 | 91 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 33 | 67 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 271 | 340 | 375 | 715 | 104 | 322 | 18 | 9 | 320 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | — | 472 | 433 | 124 | 33 | 2 | 11 | 30 | 97 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 286 | 340 | 448 | 788 | 162 | 343 | 21 | 6 | 347 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 710 | 655 | 148 | 25 | 1 | 13 | 40 | 129 | 3 | 12 | 6 | 226 | 274 | 327 | 600 | 101 | 262 | 18 | 6 | 267 | 67 | -28 | +0 | +2 | +8 | +15 | -0.3 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 21 | A MLE | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 192 | 177 | 47 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 37 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 266 | 316 | 401 | 717 | 136 | 299 | 19 | 6 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 21 | ROK MLE | Great Falls Voyagers | — | 71 | 66 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 303 | 352 | 333 | 685 | 30 | 353 | 14 | 6 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 22 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 526 | 496 | 121 | 27 | 1 | 14 | 23 | 94 | 3 | 25 | 9 | 244 | 282 | 387 | 669 | 143 | 269 | 18 | 4 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 70 | 65 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 231 | 275 | 415 | 691 | 185 | 261 | 24 | 6 | 298 | 88 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2010 | 23 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 324 | 309 | 93 | 21 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 58 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 301 | 323 | 453 | 776 | 152 | 349 | 18 | 3 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 203 | 189 | 57 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 46 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 302 | 340 | 407 | 747 | 106 | 371 | 23 | 4 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 24 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 444 | 413 | 101 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 57 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 245 | 288 | 366 | 653 | 121 | 262 | 13 | 5 | 288 | 81 | -10 | -1 | +2 | +2 | +10 | 0.3 |
| 2012 | 25 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 125 | 113 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 39 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 177 | 225 | 195 | 420 | 18 | 270 | 31 | 6 | 190 | 15 | -13 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +3 | -0.9 |
| 2012 | 25 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 132 | 127 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 173 | 205 | 220 | 425 | 47 | 227 | 25 | 4 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 24 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 208 | 304 | 513 | 130 | 238 | 25 | 4 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 30 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 200 | 333 | 200 | 533 | 278 | 23 | 17 | 267 | 67 | -1 | -0 | +0 | +2 | +1 | 0.1 | |
| 2013 | 26 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 452 | 408 | 98 | 26 | 3 | 5 | 35 | 122 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 240 | 306 | 355 | 662 | 115 | 325 | 27 | 8 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | MLB MLE | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 41 | 40 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 175 | 195 | 225 | 420 | 50 | 233 | 22 | 2 | 188 | 13 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| 2014 | 27 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 376 | 345 | 80 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 83 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 232 | 286 | 328 | 613 | 96 | 282 | 22 | 6 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 472 | 443 | 107 | 24 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 121 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 242 | 282 | 372 | 655 | 131 | 304 | 26 | 4 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 263 | 244 | 66 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 48 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 270 | 318 | 377 | 695 | 107 | 316 | 18 | 5 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 263 | 236 | 75 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 35 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 318 | 383 | 453 | 837 | 136 | 350 | 13 | 8 | 371 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 22 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 526 | 496 | 121 | 27 | 1 | 14 | 23 | 94 | 3 | 25 | 9 | 244 | 282 | 387 | 669 | 143 | 274 | 18 | 4 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 22 | A+ RAW | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 526 | 481 | 135 | 33 | 1 | 16 | 38 | 66 | 3 | 25 | 9 | 281 | 337 | 453 | 790 | 173 | 296 | 13 | 7 | 348 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 597 | 563 | 164 | 36 | 5 | 11 | 23 | 121 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 291 | 321 | 432 | 753 | 140 | 353 | 20 | 4 | 323 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 597 | 555 | 173 | 40 | 5 | 13 | 31 | 103 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 312 | 350 | 472 | 822 | 160 | 362 | 17 | 5 | 358 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 24 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 444 | 413 | 101 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 57 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 245 | 288 | 366 | 653 | 121 | 262 | 13 | 5 | 288 | 81 | -10 | -1 | +2 | +2 | +10 | 0.3 |
| 2011 | 24 | MLB RAW | Chicago White Sox | — | 444 | 413 | 101 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 57 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 245 | 288 | 366 | 653 | 121 | 262 | 13 | 5 | 289 | 81 | -10 | -1 | +2 | +2 | +10 | 0.3 |
| 2012 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 281 | 262 | 46 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 78 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 176 | 217 | 218 | 435 | 42 | 246 | 28 | 5 | 194 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 281 | 259 | 49 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 71 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 189 | 239 | 239 | 479 | 50 | 257 | 25 | 6 | 218 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 482 | 433 | 103 | 26 | 3 | 5 | 40 | 129 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 238 | 308 | 346 | 655 | 109 | 325 | 27 | 8 | 293 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 482 | 420 | 110 | 30 | 3 | 6 | 53 | 111 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 262 | 350 | 390 | 741 | 129 | 340 | 23 | 11 | 332 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 417 | 385 | 87 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 92 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 226 | 277 | 317 | 594 | 91 | 282 | 22 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 417 | 375 | 98 | 21 | 2 | 4 | 35 | 76 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 261 | 328 | 360 | 688 | 99 | 313 | 18 | 8 | 309 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 472 | 443 | 107 | 24 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 121 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 242 | 282 | 372 | 655 | 131 | 307 | 26 | 4 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AAA RAW | Nashville Sounds | — | 472 | 433 | 124 | 33 | 2 | 11 | 30 | 97 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 286 | 340 | 448 | 788 | 162 | 343 | 21 | 6 | 347 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 263 | 244 | 66 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 48 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 270 | 318 | 377 | 695 | 107 | 314 | 18 | 5 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 22 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 526 | 495 | 121 | 27 | 1 | 14 | 23 | 94 | 3 | 25 | 9 | 244 | 282 | 388 | 669 | 143 | 269 | 18 | 4 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 597 | 567 | 164 | 36 | 5 | 11 | 23 | 121 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 289 | 321 | 429 | 750 | 139 | 346 | 20 | 4 | 323 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 24 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 444 | 416 | 101 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 57 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 243 | 288 | 363 | 651 | 120 | 262 | 13 | 5 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 281 | 265 | 46 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 78 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 174 | 217 | 215 | 432 | 42 | 247 | 28 | 5 | 194 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 482 | 435 | 103 | 26 | 3 | 5 | 40 | 129 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 237 | 308 | 345 | 653 | 108 | 322 | 27 | 8 | 293 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 417 | 387 | 87 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 92 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 225 | 277 | 315 | 592 | 90 | 277 | 22 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 472 | 444 | 107 | 24 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 121 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 241 | 282 | 372 | 654 | 131 | 304 | 26 | 4 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 710 | 655 | 148 | 25 | 1 | 13 | 40 | 129 | 3 | 12 | 6 | 226 | 274 | 327 | 600 | 101 | 262 | 18 | 6 | 267 | 79 | -28 | +0 | +2 | +8 | +15 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 600 | 136 | 23 | 1 | 12 | 37 | 118 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 227 | 275 | 328 | 604 | 102 | 263 | 18 | 6 | 267 | 79 | -26 | +0 | +2 | +7 | +14 | -0.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3482 | 3239 | 795 | 163 | 17 | 60 | 181 | 740 | 22 | 88 | 30 | 245 | 290 | 362 | 652 | 116 | 299 | 21 | 5 | 285 | 79 | -28 | +0 | +2 | +8 | +15 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 605 | 148 | 30 | 3 | 11 | 34 | 138 | 4 | 16 | 6 | 245 | 290 | 359 | 648 | 114 | 298 | 21 | 5 | 285 | 79 | -26 | +0 | +2 | +7 | +14 | -0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2015 AAANashville Sounds · 472 PAwOBA .339 → .284 (−56)K% 20.6% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.55% | ÷1.034 | ×1.290 | — | — | 25.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.14% | ÷1.018 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.992 | 4.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.06% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.992 | 1.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.21% | ÷0.953 | ×0.900 | ×1.005 | ×0.992 | 21.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.82% | ÷1.063 | ×0.810 | ×1.005 | ×0.992 | 7.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.60% | ÷0.952 | ×0.810 | ×1.005 | ×0.992 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.27% | ÷0.843 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.992 | 3.01% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 91, 2B 113, 3B 90, K 107, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .339 → .284; ISO .162 → .132; BABIP .343 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 376 PAwOBA .316 → .269 (−47)K% 17.8% → 22.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.82% | ÷0.968 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.78% | ÷0.944 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.53% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.54% | ÷1.068 | ×0.930 | ×0.998 | ×1.003 | 21.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.06% | ÷0.932 | ×0.830 | ×0.998 | ×1.003 | 6.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.74% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.998 | ×1.003 | 0.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.49% | ÷0.854 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 1.47% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 114, 2B 86, 3B 130, K 94, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .316 → .269; ISO .104 → .095; BABIP .322 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAACharlotte Knights · 452 PAwOBA .329 → .295 (−34)K% 23.0% → 27.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.01% | ÷1.023 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.40% | ÷0.939 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.88% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.68% | ÷1.004 | ×0.930 | ×1.035 | ×1.018 | 22.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.31% | ÷1.006 | ×0.830 | ×1.035 | ×1.018 | 8.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.03% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.035 | ×1.018 | 1.17% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.06% | ÷0.972 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 1.81% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 101, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 105, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.
Result: wOBA .329 → .295; ISO .137 → .123; BABIP .344 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAACharlotte Knights · 132 PAwOBA .221 → .192 (−29)K% 21.2% → 24.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.21% | ÷1.020 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.06% | ÷1.047 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 4.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.79% | ÷1.009 | ×0.930 | ×1.011 | ×1.033 | 19.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.065 | ×0.830 | ×1.011 | ×1.033 | 3.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.011 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.04% | ÷0.866 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 1.04% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 102, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 104, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .221 → .192; ISO .056 → .049; BABIP .242 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 24 PAwOBA .302 → .231 (−70)K% 16.7% → 24.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.974 | ×1.420 | — | — | 24.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.33% | ÷1.016 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 5.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.034 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.978 | 4.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷0.958 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.978 | 18.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.030 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.960 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 107, 2B 92, 3B 106, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .302 → .231; ISO .182 → .145; BABIP .278 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 AAACharlotte Knights · 324 PAwOBA .357 → .330 (−27)K% 15.4% → 17.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.43% | ÷1.036 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.01% | ÷0.960 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 3.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.22% | ÷0.987 | ×0.930 | ×1.006 | ×1.050 | 24.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.38% | ÷1.001 | ×0.830 | ×1.006 | ×1.050 | 8.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.56% | ÷0.926 | ×0.970 | ×1.006 | ×1.050 | 1.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.12% | ÷1.109 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 2.49% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 85, K 107, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .357 → .330; ISO .183 → .160; BABIP .363 → .349. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 AABirmingham Barons · 203 PAwOBA .356 → .319 (−37)K% 17.7% → 22.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.73% | ÷0.963 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.90% | ÷1.062 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 4.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.99% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.73% | ÷1.003 | ×0.920 | ×1.014 | ×1.027 | 28.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.78% | ÷1.025 | ×0.910 | ×1.014 | ×1.027 | 8.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.68% | ÷1.071 | ×0.880 | ×1.014 | ×1.027 | 0.58% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.35% | ÷0.874 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 1.27% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 101, 2B 105, 3B 114, K 93, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .356 → .319; ISO .114 → .104; BABIP .392 → .371. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2009 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 526 PAwOBA .339 → .289 (−50)K% 12.5% → 17.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.55% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 17.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.012 | 4.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.57% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 0.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×0.992 | ×1.012 | 19.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.992 | ×1.012 | 6.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.24% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | ×0.992 | ×1.012 | 0.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.012 | 3.51% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .339 → .289; ISO .173 → .148; BABIP .296 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).