Nick Van Stratten
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 27 | AA/A+2 orgs | 226 | .312/.362/.405 | 1 | 7 | 83 | — | .284/.325/.375 |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 283 | .400/.458/.512 | 2 | 15 | 140 | — | .370/.406/.465 |
| 2016 | 31 | AAASaraperos de … | 302 | .309/.367/.401 | 1 | 14 | 78 | — | .276/.310/.350 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2006 | 21 | ROK | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 268 | 226 | 66 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 27 | 18 | 10 | 14 | 1 | 292 | 392 | 434 | 825 | 142 | 303 | 7 | 10 | 365 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 22 | ROK | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 114 | 98 | 31 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 316 | 407 | 500 | 907 | 184 | 333 | 8 | 11 | 397 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | A | Burlington Bees | — | 155 | 139 | 48 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 345 | 405 | 489 | 894 | 144 | 392 | 13 | 8 | 392 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 161 | 139 | 40 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 288 | 373 | 403 | 776 | 115 | 314 | 12 | 8 | 347 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | A | Burlington Bees | — | 291 | 255 | 81 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 32 | 5 | 15 | 6 | 318 | 396 | 447 | 843 | 129 | 357 | 11 | 10 | 374 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 342 | 302 | 79 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 41 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 262 | 336 | 341 | 677 | 79 | 296 | 12 | 8 | 306 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | ROK | AZL Royals | — | 15 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 467 | 583 | 1.050 | 250 | 400 | 13 | 13 | 459 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 232 | 208 | 49 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 28 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 236 | 300 | 380 | 679 | 144 | 250 | 12 | 7 | 298 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 257 | 229 | 62 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 30 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 271 | 327 | 354 | 680 | 83 | 303 | 12 | 5 | 299 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 147 | 134 | 38 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 284 | 324 | 358 | 682 | 75 | 328 | 12 | 3 | 298 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 79 | 71 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 366 | 430 | 493 | 923 | 127 | 403 | 10 | 6 | 413 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA | Broncos de Tamaulipas | — | 250 | 221 | 89 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 22 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 403 | 459 | 520 | 979 | 118 | 439 | 9 | 8 | 426 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | INTL | Tomateros de Culiacan | — | 33 | 29 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 379 | 455 | 448 | 903 | 69 | 440 | 12 | 9 | 410 | 164 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 302 | 272 | 84 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 20 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 309 | 367 | 401 | 768 | 92 | 331 | 7 | 8 | 341 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2006 | 21 | ROK MLE | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 268 | 237 | 56 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 26 | 10 | 14 | 1 | 236 | 312 | 333 | 645 | 97 | 248 | 10 | 6 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 22 | ROK MLE | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 114 | 103 | 26 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 252 | 319 | 398 | 717 | 146 | 269 | 11 | 7 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | A MLE | Burlington Bees | — | 155 | 143 | 44 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 27 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 308 | 353 | 434 | 787 | 126 | 364 | 17 | 5 | 339 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 161 | 145 | 39 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 27 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 269 | 329 | 372 | 702 | 103 | 298 | 17 | 4 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | A MLE | Burlington Bees | — | 291 | 264 | 75 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 19 | 44 | 5 | 15 | 6 | 284 | 344 | 398 | 741 | 114 | 325 | 15 | 7 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 342 | 313 | 74 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 53 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 236 | 289 | 294 | 583 | 58 | 273 | 15 | 5 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | ROK MLE | AZL Royals | — | 15 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 333 | 385 | 718 | 154 | 282 | 20 | 7 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 232 | 214 | 44 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 35 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 206 | 251 | 327 | 578 | 121 | 218 | 15 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 257 | 234 | 57 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 44 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 244 | 286 | 316 | 603 | 73 | 275 | 17 | 3 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 147 | 135 | 36 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 267 | 303 | 341 | 644 | 74 | 299 | 15 | 2 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 79 | 73 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 315 | 367 | 438 | 805 | 123 | 351 | 15 | 4 | 336 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA MLE | Broncos de Tamaulipas | — | 250 | 230 | 85 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 27 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 370 | 406 | 465 | 871 | 96 | 396 | 11 | 4 | 370 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 302 | 283 | 78 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 25 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 276 | 310 | 350 | 660 | 74 | 293 | 8 | 4 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 21 | ROK MLE | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 268 | 237 | 56 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 26 | 10 | 14 | 1 | 236 | 312 | 333 | 645 | 97 | 255 | 10 | 6 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 21 | ROK RAW | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 268 | 226 | 66 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 27 | 18 | 10 | 14 | 1 | 292 | 392 | 434 | 825 | 142 | 303 | 7 | 10 | 365 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 22 | ROK MLE | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 114 | 103 | 26 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 252 | 319 | 398 | 717 | 146 | 273 | 11 | 7 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 22 | ROK RAW | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 114 | 98 | 31 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 316 | 407 | 500 | 907 | 184 | 333 | 8 | 11 | 397 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | A MLE | Burlington Bees | — | 155 | 143 | 44 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 27 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 308 | 353 | 434 | 787 | 126 | 368 | 17 | 5 | 339 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | A RAW | Burlington Bees | — | 155 | 139 | 48 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 345 | 405 | 489 | 894 | 144 | 392 | 13 | 8 | 392 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 452 | 409 | 112 | 23 | 5 | 3 | 26 | 71 | 11 | 20 | 8 | 274 | 334 | 377 | 711 | 103 | 322 | 16 | 6 | 311 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 452 | 394 | 121 | 27 | 5 | 4 | 41 | 51 | 11 | 20 | 8 | 307 | 388 | 431 | 819 | 124 | 342 | 11 | 9 | 364 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 357 | 326 | 77 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 56 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 236 | 291 | 298 | 588 | 61 | 281 | 16 | 5 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 357 | 314 | 83 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 43 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 264 | 342 | 350 | 692 | 86 | 300 | 12 | 8 | 312 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 489 | 448 | 100 | 20 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 79 | 8 | 19 | 5 | 223 | 267 | 315 | 582 | 92 | 258 | 16 | 4 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 489 | 437 | 111 | 23 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 58 | 8 | 19 | 5 | 254 | 314 | 366 | 680 | 112 | 279 | 12 | 6 | 298 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 226 | 208 | 59 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 284 | 326 | 375 | 701 | 91 | 335 | 15 | 3 | 290 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 226 | 205 | 64 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 312 | 362 | 405 | 767 | 93 | 354 | 12 | 4 | 338 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 283 | 261 | 96 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 31 | 4 | 15 | 5 | 368 | 404 | 464 | 868 | 96 | 410 | 11 | 4 | 370 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 283 | 250 | 100 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 26 | 4 | 15 | 5 | 400 | 458 | 512 | 970 | 112 | 439 | 9 | 8 | 424 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 302 | 283 | 78 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 25 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 276 | 310 | 350 | 660 | 74 | 300 | 8 | 4 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA RAW | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 302 | 272 | 84 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 20 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 309 | 367 | 401 | 768 | 92 | 331 | 7 | 8 | 341 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 21 | ROK MLE | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 268 | 240 | 56 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 26 | 10 | 14 | 1 | 233 | 312 | 329 | 641 | 96 | 248 | 10 | 6 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 22 | ROK MLE | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 114 | 103 | 26 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 252 | 319 | 398 | 717 | 146 | 269 | 11 | 7 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | A MLE | Burlington Bees | — | 155 | 144 | 44 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 27 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 306 | 353 | 431 | 783 | 125 | 364 | 17 | 5 | 339 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 452 | 412 | 112 | 23 | 5 | 3 | 26 | 71 | 11 | 20 | 8 | 272 | 334 | 374 | 708 | 102 | 315 | 16 | 6 | 311 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 357 | 329 | 77 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 56 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 234 | 291 | 295 | 585 | 61 | 273 | 16 | 5 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 489 | 459 | 100 | 20 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 79 | 8 | 19 | 5 | 218 | 267 | 307 | 575 | 89 | 248 | 16 | 4 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 226 | 211 | 59 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 280 | 326 | 370 | 695 | 90 | 317 | 15 | 3 | 290 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 283 | 265 | 96 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 31 | 4 | 15 | 5 | 362 | 404 | 457 | 861 | 94 | 396 | 11 | 4 | 370 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 302 | 285 | 78 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 25 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 274 | 310 | 347 | 657 | 74 | 293 | 8 | 4 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2646 | 2418 | 648 | 116 | 27 | 18 | 126 | 362 | 52 | 109 | 37 | 268 | 318 | 361 | 679 | 93 | 307 | 14 | 5 | 293 | 84 | -50 | +7 | +0 | +9 | +57 | 2.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 594 | 159 | 28 | 7 | 4 | 31 | 89 | 13 | 27 | 9 | 268 | 318 | 359 | 677 | 91 | 308 | 14 | 5 | 293 | 84 | -12 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +14 | 0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2016 AAASaraperos de Saltillo · 302 PAwOBA .328 → .284 (−44)K% 6.6% → 8.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 6.62% | ÷0.948 | ×1.200 | — | — | 8.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.95% | ÷1.047 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.962 | 4.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.33% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.962 | 0.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.007 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.962 | 23.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.154 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.962 | 5.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.79% | ÷1.059 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.962 | 0.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.40% | ÷0.966 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.962 | 0.28% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 101, 2B 131, 3B 112, K 90, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .328 → .284; ISO .092 → .072; BABIP .331 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAABroncos de Tamaulipas · 250 PAwOBA .414 → .370 (−44)K% 8.8% → 10.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 8.80% | ÷0.980 | ×1.200 | — | — | 10.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.20% | ÷1.122 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 4.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 1.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.033 | ×0.972 | 33.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.03% | ÷1.108 | ×0.830 | ×1.033 | ×0.972 | 4.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.01% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.033 | ×0.972 | 1.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.01% | ÷0.851 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 0.80% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 100, 2B 122, 3B 130, K 96, BB 124 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .414 → .370; ISO .118 → .096; BABIP .439 → .396. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 147 PAwOBA .290 → .266 (−24)K% 12.2% → 15.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.24% | ÷0.989 | ×1.220 | — | — | 15.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.72% | ÷0.936 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 1.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.72% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 2.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.86% | ÷1.047 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 23.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.17% | ÷0.883 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 5.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.72% | ÷1.079 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 1.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.059 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 109, 2B 77, 3B 116, K 98, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .290 → .266; ISO .075 → .072; BABIP .328 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 79 PAwOBA .402 → .336 (−66)K% 10.1% → 14.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.13% | ÷0.978 | ×1.420 | — | — | 14.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.33% | ÷1.054 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.958 | 3.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.80% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.958 | 3.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.75% | ÷1.085 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.958 | 27.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.35% | ÷0.931 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.958 | 5.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.59% | ÷1.113 | ×0.800 | ×1.050 | ×0.958 | 1.15% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.59% | ÷0.783 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.958 | 1.75% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 57, 1B 117, 2B 86, 3B 123, K 96, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .402 → .336; ISO .127 → .116; BABIP .403 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 257 PAwOBA .294 → .255 (−40)K% 11.7% → 17.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.67% | ÷0.964 | ×1.420 | — | — | 17.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.06% | ÷0.990 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.968 | 3.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.33% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.968 | 1.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.12% | ÷1.032 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 21.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.04% | ÷0.985 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 6.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.50% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 0.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.50% | ÷0.921 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.968 | 0.48% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 106, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 93, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .294 → .255; ISO .083 → .071; BABIP .303 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 232 PAwOBA .291 → .246 (−45)K% 12.1% → 15.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.07% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 15.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.33% | ÷1.052 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 4.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.86% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.78% | ÷1.067 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 15.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.061 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 4.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.67% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 1.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.78% | ÷0.937 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 2.34% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 113, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .291 → .246; ISO .144 → .124; BABIP .250 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 342 PAwOBA .298 → .258 (−40)K% 12.0% → 15.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.99% | ÷0.944 | ×1.220 | — | — | 15.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.89% | ÷1.109 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 4.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.75% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 1.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.61% | ÷1.006 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 21.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.90% | ÷1.081 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 5.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.77% | ÷1.145 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.53% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 101, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 89, BB 122 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .298 → .258; ISO .079 → .064; BABIP .296 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 ROKAZL Royals · 15 PAwOBA .448 → .307 (−141)K% 13.3% → 19.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.33% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 19.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.945 | 7.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.67% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 4.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.945 | 7.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 20.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .448 → .307; ISO .250 → .175; BABIP .400 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .