Tommy Case

P ACL Dodgers

Age 20 RHP ROK peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	19	ROKLAD	9	5	20	6.75	3.95	24.5%	13.3%	—	K 16.7% · BB 16.6% · FIP 5.36
2027PROJ	20	MLBLAD	3	3	12	5.10	5.10	21.5%	14.2%	-0.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBLAD	2	2	10	4.90	4.82	22.1%	12.5%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 93%

CompsJuan Mendez (age 22) · Kobe Robinson (age 21) · Deretd Parra (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%21.5%

BB%14.2%

K-BB%7.3%

Proj IP12

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	9	5	20	98	24	13	2	56%	2.2	16.7%	16.6%	0.1%	2.9%	6.75	5.36	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	9	5	20	98	24	13	2	56%	2.2	16.7%	16.6%	0.1%	2.9%	6.75	5.36	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	ACL Dodgers	9	5	20	98	24	13	2	56%	2.2	24.5%	13.3%	11.2%	2.0%	6.75	3.95	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	LAD	3	3	12	51	11	7	2	100%	4.0	21.5%	14.2%	7.3%	3.0%	5.10	5.10	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	LAD	4	4	20	84	19	11	2	100%	5.0	22.1%	12.5%	9.6%	2.9%	4.90	4.82	+0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	LAD	2	2	10	42	9	5	1	100%	5.0	22.1%	12.5%	9.6%	2.9%	4.90	4.82	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	10	42	9	5	1	100%	4.9	22.1%	12.5%	9.6%	2.9%	4.90	4.43	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	41	200	844	183	102	20	100%	4.8	22.1%	12.5%	9.6%	2.9%	4.90	4.43	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		9	5	20	98	16	16	3	56%	2.2	16.7%	16.6%	0.1%	2.9%	6.75	5.36	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		90	50	200	980	163	162	28	56%	2.2	16.7%	16.6%	0.1%	2.9%	6.75	5.36	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tommy Case (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	21.5%	14.2%	3.0%	—	4.82	22.1%	9.6%	20	-0.28	—	—	—
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	85
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	83
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	80
Trayson Kubo R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SW	5.01	19.8%	15.6%	2.9%	.450	4.82	17.7%	1.4%	66	-0.19	4.48	107	80
Jhoster Baez R 2024 · 4.57 FIP	19	SP-	4.57	17.3%	14.8%	1.9%	.283	5.93	15.9%	-5.0%	73	+1.36	4.57	110	79
Miguel Alfonseca R 2021 · 4.19 FIP	21	SP-	4.19	18.3%	12.1%	2.0%	.400	5.36	14.9%	-0.9%	92	+1.17	4.19	123	79
Alfred Vega R 2021 · 4.56 FIP	20	SP-	4.56	20.5%	16.0%	2.1%	.203	4.66	13.4%	0.6%	81	+0.10	2.07	234	78
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	78
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	78
Jaydenn Estanista R 2022 · 5.61 FIP	20	SW	5.61	20.2%	16.9%	3.8%	.172	5.14	20.6%	2.4%	123	-0.47	4.59	230	78
Tahnaj Thomas R 2018 · 5.06 FIP	19	SP-	5.06	23.0%	15.6%	3.5%	.268	6.04	17.0%	2.7%	61	+0.98	3.81	214	78
Eriq Swan R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.7%	17.3%	2.2%	.371	5.28	19.7%	0.9%	109	+0.43	4.85	132	77
Rodolfo Sanchez R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	23.0%	13.6%	3.3%	.264	4.83	19.9%	6.3%	104	+0.12	3.59	255	77
Felix Arronde R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	344	+0.56	4.16	442	77
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	77
Accimias Morales R 2024 · 4.24 FIP	19	SP-	4.24	18.5%	13.0%	1.9%	.362	5.25	18.6%	-2.1%	75	+1.01	2.52	129	77
Jonawel Valdez R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	20	SP-	4.13	17.5%	13.8%	1.4%	.309	5.20	12.5%	0.2%	81	+1.07	4.04	141	77
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	77
Joseph Hernandez R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	21	SW	4.39	24.7%	16.7%	2.3%	.348	4.92	18.1%	4.0%	190	+0.53	4.39	260	76
Lisandro Almonte R 2022 · 4.73 FIP	20	SP-	4.73	17.9%	10.3%	3.3%	.310	5.04	20.5%	3.3%	50	+0.31	3.81	128	75