Andy Mata — OGILVIE

Andy MataIF DSL Tigers 2

Age 19 L/R 5'9" / 165 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 161 proj PA

wRC+67

AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .284 / .296

PA161

HR2

K%27

BB%8

ISO88

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$4M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$4M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Tigers 2	—	145	128	31	9	1	3	13	33	3	10	1	242	326	398	725	156	304	23	9	324	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL Tigers 2	—	191	144	40	8	1	1	34	39	11	12	3	278	450	368	818	90	375	20	18	382	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	—	145	132	21	6	1	1	9	41	3	10	1	159	229	242	472	83	208	28	6	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	—	191	154	29	5	1	0	24	48	11	12	3	188	339	234	572	45	258	25	13	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	—	145	132	21	6	1	1	9	41	3	10	1	159	229	242	472	83	222	28	6	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 2	—	145	128	31	9	1	3	13	33	3	10	1	242	326	398	725	156	304	23	9	324	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	—	191	154	29	5	1	0	24	48	11	12	3	188	339	234	572	45	274	25	13	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 2	—	191	144	40	8	1	1	34	39	11	12	3	278	450	368	818	90	375	20	18	382	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	—	145	132	21	6	1	1	9	41	3	10	1	159	229	242	472	83	208	28	6	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	—	191	154	29	5	1	0	24	48	11	12	3	188	339	234	572	45	258	25	13	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	—	145	132	21	6	1	1	9	41	3	10	1	159	229	242	472	83	208	28	6	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	—	191	154	29	5	1	0	24	48	11	12	3	188	339	234	572	45	258	25	13	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	—	0%	301	270	57	11	2	3	23	80	5	6	1	211	286	299	585	88	285	27	8	268	67	-12	+1	-2	+0	+7	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	—	34%	243	218	47	9	2	3	19	64	4	5	1	216	292	316	608	100	287	26	8	277	74	-8	+1	-1	+0	+5	-0.3
2029	21	MLB MLE	—	48%	366	328	73	13	3	6	29	95	6	7	2	220	297	331	628	110	289	26	8	285	79	-9	+1	-2	+0	+8	-0.2
2030	22	MLB MLE	—	54%	454	406	91	16	3	9	37	117	8	9	2	224	301	343	643	119	290	26	8	291	83	-9	+1	-1	+0	+10	0.0
2031	23	MLB MLE	—	57%	512	457	104	19	3	11	41	130	9	10	3	227	303	353	656	125	291	25	8	296	86	-8	+1	-1	+0	+11	0.3
2032	24	MLB MLE	—	57%	550	491	113	20	4	12	45	139	9	11	3	230	306	361	666	131	292	25	8	300	89	-7	+1	+0	+0	+12	0.6
2033	25	MLB MLE	—	57%	572	511	118	21	4	13	47	144	9	11	3	231	307	364	671	134	292	25	8	301	90	-7	+1	+0	+0	+12	0.7
2034	26	MLB MLE	—	56%	584	521	121	22	4	14	48	147	10	11	3	231	307	366	673	136	292	25	8	302	91	-6	+1	+0	+0	+13	0.7
2035	27	MLB MLE	—	55%	586	523	121	22	4	14	48	149	10	11	3	230	306	364	669	134	291	25	8	301	90	-7	+1	+0	+0	+13	0.7
2036	28	MLB MLE	—	55%	583	521	119	21	4	13	48	149	9	10	3	228	304	359	663	131	290	26	8	298	88	-8	+1	-1	+0	+13	0.4
2037	29	MLB MLE	—	53%	574	513	116	21	3	13	47	149	9	9	3	225	301	352	653	127	289	26	8	294	85	-10	+1	-1	+0	+12	0.2
2038	30	MLB MLE	—	53%	564	505	112	20	3	12	45	148	9	8	3	222	297	344	642	122	287	26	8	290	82	-12	+0	-2	+0	+12	-0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	—	34%	83	75	16	3	1	1	7	22	1	2	0	216	292	316	608	100	287	27	8	277	74	-3	+0	-0	+0	+2	-0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	—	48%	177	158	34	6	1	3	14	46	3	3	1	220	297	331	628	110	289	26	8	285	79	-4	+0	-1	+0	+4	-0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	—	54%	246	220	50	9	2	5	20	63	4	5	1	224	301	343	643	119	290	26	8	291	83	-5	+1	-1	+0	+5	0.0
2031	23	MLB CTX	—	57%	290	260	59	11	2	6	23	74	5	6	1	227	303	353	656	125	291	26	8	296	86	-5	+1	-0	+0	+6	0.2
2032	24	MLB CTX	—	57%	311	278	64	12	2	7	25	79	5	6	2	230	306	361	666	131	292	25	8	300	89	-4	+0	+0	+0	+7	0.3
2033	25	MLB CTX	—	57%	323	289	66	12	2	7	26	82	5	6	2	231	307	364	671	134	292	25	8	301	90	-4	+0	+0	+0	+7	0.4
2034	26	MLB CTX	—	56%	330	295	68	12	2	8	27	83	5	6	2	231	307	366	673	136	292	25	8	302	91	-4	+0	+0	+0	+7	0.4
2035	27	MLB CTX	—	55%	325	290	67	12	2	8	27	82	5	6	2	230	306	364	669	134	291	25	8	301	90	-4	+0	+0	+0	+7	0.4
2036	28	MLB CTX	—	55%	320	286	65	12	2	7	26	82	5	5	2	228	304	359	663	131	290	26	8	298	88	-5	+0	-0	+0	+7	0.2
2037	29	MLB CTX	—	53%	307	274	62	11	2	7	25	79	5	5	2	225	301	352	653	127	289	26	8	294	85	-5	+0	-1	+0	+7	0.1
2038	30	MLB CTX	—	53%	297	266	59	10	2	6	24	78	5	4	2	222	297	344	642	122	287	26	8	290	82	-6	+0	-1	+0	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3009	2691	610	110	20	65	244	770	48	54	17	227	302	355	657	128	291	26	8	296	84	-49	+4	-5	+0	+65	1.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	132	24	4	14	53	166	10	12	4	227	302	355	657	127	292	26	8	296	84	-10	+1	-1	+0	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	6085	5424	1216	221	40	123	500	1563	109	127	34	224	303	348	650	124	290	26	8	292	84	-99	+9	-10	+0	+125	2.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	130	24	4	13	53	167	12	14	4	225	302	347	649	123	291	26	8	292	84	-11	+1	-1	+0	+14	0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#4Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.8	3,171	66	57	227	300	353	+0	+0	4.0	3.8
/162	664	14	12	+0.0	+0.0	0.8	pk7: 4
#5Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Andy Mata (OGILVIE)	19	20→50	30→50	50	40	209/284/296	87	285	2	3	27%	8%	67	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Carlos Jimenez 2022 · A	19	36→44	39→50	53→55	48	177/265/262	85	249	7	11	30%	9%	53	-2.1	194/283/299	105	299	9	16	34%	10%	68	-1.0	223/303/376	153	308	17	18	31%	10%	89	+0.4
✕Victor Mesa Jr. 2021 · A	19	45→46	37→55	49→50	47	212/272/292	80	272	4	8	22%	7%	61	-1.5	214/265/314	100	290	7	9	27%	6%	63	-1.4	238/297/408	169	279	21	11	23%	7%	95	+0.5
✕Juan Villavicencio 2024 · A	19	36→44	38→50	51→55	47	174/251/254	80	234	5	13	26%	8%	45	-2.7	189/262/280	91	279	7	14	32%	8%	55	-1.9	193/266/307	113	285	10	20	34%	8%	61	-0.6
✕Angel Ortiz 2022 · A	19	42→45	41→50	46→45	44	206/261/296	90	269	9	9	26%	7%	57	-1.8	207/257/302	95	281	7	7	27%	6%	57	-1.8	227/286/370	143	294	13	8	26%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Rio Ruiz 2013 · A	19	43→53	38→50	52→40	42	205/261/298	93	294	4	6	30%	7%	58	-1.7	232/297/350	118	303	9	5	24%	9%	83	+0.1	246/316/351	105	316	8	2	23%	9%	88	+0.4
✕Manuel Pena 2023 · A	19	41→50	38→50	47→50	42	198/255/277	79	286	6	10	32%	7%	51	-2.3	213/257/304	91	311	6	8	32%	5%	57	-1.8	238/273/365	128	316	15	5	29%	4%	76	-0.4
✕Franchy Cordero 2014 · A	19	44→54	38→55	58→50	41	207/265/293	86	304	5	13	32%	7%	58	-1.7	208/250/287	79	323	5	13	35%	5%	51	-2.3	250/293/418	168	373	15	17	35%	5%	94	+0.7
✕Alberto Rodriguez 2021 · A	20	42→52	38→50	52→50	44	203/259/282	79	268	5	14	25%	7%	53	-2.1	228/290/353	125	327	10	8	31%	7%	82	-0.0	228/292/360	132	326	11	7	31%	7%	81	-0.1
✕Ramón Flores 2011 · A	19	45→55	37→45	48→50	47	211/276/288	77	274	4	7	23%	8%	61	-1.5	238/295/334	96	303	7	9	22%	7%	78	-0.3	255/328/354	99	304	9	8	18%	9%	94	+0.6
✕Max Clark 2024 · A	19	44→53	42→45	51→55	48	207/292/314	106	308	9	11	33%	10%	74	-0.5	238/314/357	119	306	11	17	24%	9%	92	+0.7	245/323/369	124	304	11	19	22%	10%	96	+0.9
✕Estevan Florial 2017 · A	19	39→49	42→50	52→60	40	192/255/297	106	289	10	11	35%	7%	56	-1.9	217/275/334	117	369	10	13	40%	7%	72	-0.7	214/285/371	157	317	17	29	36%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Antonis Macias 2024 · A	19	44→51	34→45	45	44	201/282/257	56	290	2	12	29%	8%	58	-1.7	223/308/294	71	307	3	7	26%	10%	76	-0.4	228/313/308	80	299	6	5	23%	10%	79	-0.1
✕Victor Arias 2023 · A	19	43→50	37→45	49→50	47	199/284/273	74	302	3	11	32%	10%	62	-1.4	217/300/325	108	317	8	16	31%	9%	80	-0.2	226/304/342	116	321	9	18	30%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Hoy Park 2016 · A	20	40→50	41→45	47→55	46	197/270/297	100	265	8	11	28%	8%	62	-1.4	207/284/295	88	286	5	16	27%	9%	67	-1.1	234/324/332	98	306	8	17	24%	11%	88	+0.3
✕Hector Osorio 2023 · A	18	46	37→45	47→50	49	215/299/289	74	290	4	8	25%	9%	72	-0.7	205/319/270	65	256	3	14	19%	12%	76	-0.4	223/323/350	127	253	16	10	18%	10%	93	+0.4
✕Noelvi Marte 2021 · A	19	41→51	41→50	49→55	45	201/256/299	98	254	8	12	24%	7%	56	-1.9	233/299/372	139	304	15	16	27%	8%	90	+0.6	241/309/383	142	307	16	19	26%	8%	94	+0.7
✕Tirso Ornelas 2019 · A	19	44→54	41→50	50→45	45	214/282/314	100	297	8	5	30%	8%	70	-0.9	195/261/274	79	285	5	5	31%	8%	53	-2.1	262/321/391	130	320	13	7	22%	7%	99	+1.1
✕Eguy Rosario 2019 · A	19	42→52	40→55	48→55	39	205/259/302	97	291	7	13	31%	6%	59	-1.7	227/277/345	118	314	10	16	29%	6%	74	-0.5	240/303/388	148	312	14	21	26%	7%	92	+0.5
✕Billy McKinney 2014 · A	19	47→57	38→60	54→45	44	226/278/301	75	284	5	9	22%	6%	65	-1.2	237/301/350	113	307	9	4	24%	8%	85	+0.2	222/283/407	185	267	20	2	25%	7%	91	+0.5
✕Angel Guzman 2024 · A	18	39	39→45	51→55	51	190/275/281	91	246	6	9	24%	9%	61	-1.5	193/294/290	97	272	8	10	29%	11%	70	-0.8	182/294/282	100	260	9	9	30%	12%	65	-0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps