Ethan Walker — OGILVIE

Ethan Walker P Salem RidgeYaks

Age 22 LHP 6'2" / 195 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 124

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%23.2%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%10.5%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Salem RidgeYaks	18	6	55	244	74	36	2	33%	3.0	22.6%	17.2%	5.4%	1.2%	3.62	4.01	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Salem RidgeYaks	18	6	55	244	74	36	2	33%	3.0	22.6%	17.2%	5.4%	1.2%	3.62	4.01	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	BOS	2	1	4	18	5	3	0	50%	1.9	27.8%	16.7%	11.1%	0.0%	4.91	2.87	—
2026	22	A RAW	BOS	16	5	51	226	69	33	2	31%	3.2	30.5%	14.6%	15.9%	0.9%	3.53	2.86	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	BOS	53	0	56	234	56	27	7	0%	1.0	23.9%	11.4%	12.6%	2.9%	4.59	4.50	+0.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	BOS	54	0	57	240	59	25	7	0%	1.1	24.5%	10.5%	14.0%	2.9%	4.43	4.34	+0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	BOS	55	0	58	243	60	24	7	0%	1.0	24.8%	10.0%	14.8%	2.9%	4.31	4.23	+0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	BOS	55	0	58	243	61	24	7	0%	1.0	24.9%	9.9%	15.0%	2.9%	4.25	4.21	+0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	BOS	54	0	57	239	60	24	7	0%	1.1	24.9%	10.0%	15.0%	2.9%	4.25	4.25	+0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	BOS	26	0	27	114	27	13	3	0%	1.0	23.9%	11.4%	12.6%	2.9%	4.59	4.50	+0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	BOS	38	0	40	169	41	18	5	0%	1.1	24.5%	10.5%	14.0%	2.9%	4.43	4.34	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	BOS	45	0	47	198	49	20	6	0%	1.0	24.8%	10.0%	14.8%	2.9%	4.31	4.23	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	BOS	48	0	50	211	53	21	6	0%	1.0	24.9%	9.9%	15.0%	2.9%	4.25	4.21	+0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	BOS	49	0	51	215	54	21	6	0%	1.0	24.9%	10.0%	15.0%	2.9%	4.25	4.25	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		205	0	215	909	224	93	26	0%	1.1	24.7%	10.2%	14.5%	2.9%	4.34	3.91	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	208	86	24	0%	1.1	24.7%	10.2%	14.5%	2.9%	4.34	3.91	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		18	6	55	244	55	42	3	33%	3.0	22.6%	17.2%	5.4%	1.2%	3.62	4.01	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	22	200	893	202	154	10	33%	3.0	22.6%	17.2%	5.4%	1.2%	3.62	4.01	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ethan Walker (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	23.2%	12.8%	3.0%	—	4.35	24.4%	13.8%	170	-0.41	—	—	—
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	84
Matt Osterberg L 2021 · 3.88 FIP	22	SW	3.88	20.2%	12.3%	1.7%	.255	4.04	15.6%	9.3%	274	+0.16	3.70	294	83
Josh Simpson L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	23	SW	4.57	23.5%	11.5%	3.6%	.290	3.29	32.8%	19.4%	102	-1.28	3.04	255	79
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	78
Lucas Knowles L 2021 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	20.5%	12.9%	1.6%	.366	4.22	18.5%	9.4%	177	+0.32	3.37	308	78
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	77
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	77
Seth Lonsway L 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.16	15.9%	4.3%	319	-0.25	3.35	498	76
Parker Mushinski L 2018 · 3.73 FIP	22	SW	3.73	22.3%	13.7%	1.4%	.269	3.53	23.3%	14.7%	118	-0.20	3.11	455	76
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	75
Ismael Guillón L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	24	SW	4.38	24.9%	12.5%	3.3%	.206	4.43	20.1%	6.0%	100	+0.05	4.35	193	74
Chase Watkins L 2022 · 3.75 FIP	22	SU	3.75	20.6%	11.8%	1.7%	.346	4.34	17.7%	9.0%	156	+0.59	3.30	232	74
Luis Ysla L 2015 · 4.88 FIP	23	SW	4.88	19.6%	12.5%	3.4%	.412	4.47	18.3%	4.3%	208	-0.41	3.75	378	74
Juliandry Higuera L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	22	SU	3.87	20.0%	9.4%	2.3%	.358	4.64	13.8%	-0.3%	43	+0.77	3.87	197	74
Jeffrey Springs L 2016 · 4.37 FIP	23	SW	4.37	21.0%	10.1%	3.2%	.265	3.59	25.7%	16.0%	233	-0.78	1.36	898	74
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	73
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	73
Brandon Finnegan L 2015 · 4.48 FIP	22	SW	4.48	21.3%	12.8%	2.8%	.287	5.01	18.5%	6.5%	273	+0.53	3.86	489	73
Kyle Twomey L 2016 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP-	4.07	17.6%	10.5%	2.1%	.298	3.96	14.8%	6.9%	68	-0.11	3.96	141	72
Grant Wolfram L 2019 · 3.66 FIP	22	SW	3.66	17.5%	11.5%	1.1%	.342	4.92	23.8%	8.6%	123	+1.26	2.41	418	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	53	24.5%	10.6%	1.13	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84