Truman Pauley
P
Kannapolis Cannon Ballers
Age 22
RHP
6'2" / 200 lbs
A
peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION72 act + 28 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 115
ERA5.06
FIP5.06
K%21.4%
BB%13.5%
K-BB%8.0%
ROS IP28
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 1.4 | 17.6% | 23.5% | -5.9% | 0.0% | 2.08 | 4.59 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 1.4 | 17.6% | 23.5% | -5.9% | 0.0% | 2.08 | 4.48 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 18 | 17 | 72 | 332 | 87 | 55 | 13 | 94% | 4.0 | 19.4% | 19.5% | -0.2% | 5.1% | 5.65 | 6.73 | -1.6 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | CWS | 6 | 6 | 28 | 119 | 26 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 4.7 | 21.4% | 13.5% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 5.06 | 5.06 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.4% | 13.5% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 5.06 | 5.06 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 100 | 451 | 113 | 71 | 17 | — | — | 24.9% | 15.7% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 5.48 | 6.26 | -1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | CWS | 5 | 5 | 29 | 124 | 28 | 15 | 4 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.4% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.87 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | CWS | 3 | 3 | 14 | 59 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 4.7 | 22.4% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.87 | 4.79 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3 | 3 | 14 | 61 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 4.8 | 22.4% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.87 | 4.41 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 37 | 200 | 844 | 194 | 97 | 28 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.4% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.87 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 21 | 20 | 76 | 349 | 67 | 69 | 17 | 95% | 3.6 | 19.3% | 19.7% | -0.4% | 4.8% | 5.45 | 6.63 | -1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 53 | 200 | 918 | 177 | 181 | 44 | 95% | 3.6 | 19.3% | 19.7% | -0.4% | 4.8% | 5.45 | 6.63 | -2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Truman Pauley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.06 | 21.4% | 13.5% | 3.1% | — | 4.79 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 29 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| TJ Shook R 2027 · 4.82 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.82 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.12 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 296 | +0.30 | 3.36 | 432 | 88 |
| Christian Roa R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.02 | 19.6% | 12.4% | 3.6% | .321 | 4.92 | 22.7% | 6.2% | 260 | -0.10 | 4.38 | 406 | 87 |
| Ryan Harvey R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.98 | 16.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .294 | 3.81 | 16.9% | 3.9% | 66 | -1.17 | 3.56 | 112 | 85 |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .331 | 6.04 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 233 | +1.32 | 4.72 | 283 | 84 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 83 |
| Chad Patrick R 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 83 |
| Dane Acker R 2027 · 5.44 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.44 | 19.3% | 15.2% | 3.7% | .284 | 4.44 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 215 | -1.00 | 4.23 | 257 | 82 |
| Will Bednar R 2026 · 5.57 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.57 | 20.5% | 14.1% | 4.4% | .173 | 4.70 | 26.6% | 6.3% | 95 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 172 | 82 |
| Brandon White R 2027 · 5.11 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.11 | 16.7% | 10.3% | 3.8% | .264 | 4.10 | 17.7% | 10.4% | 245 | -1.01 | 3.90 | 264 | 81 |
| James Proctor R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 1.6% | .277 | 4.35 | 14.0% | 1.5% | 48 | +0.33 | 4.02 | 109 | 81 |
| Winyer Chourio R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.50 | 23.5% | 16.3% | 2.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 156 | 81 |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.06 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .268 | 5.93 | 17.4% | 2.1% | 47 | +1.87 | 4.06 | 101 | 81 |
| Jared Lyons R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.1% | 15.3% | 1.9% | .345 | 3.85 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 164 | -0.55 | 3.27 | 218 | 81 |
| CJ Van Eyk R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.01 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .302 | 4.47 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 127 | -0.54 | 3.95 | 411 | 81 |
| Khristian Curtis R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.39 | 18.8% | 14.4% | 3.7% | .275 | 4.58 | 21.4% | 9.3% | 183 | -0.81 | 4.52 | 258 | 81 |
| Nate Dohm R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.86 | 21.1% | 11.5% | 3.8% | .309 | 4.59 | 17.7% | 2.6% | 40 | -0.27 | 4.59 | 115 | 81 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2028 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 81 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2027 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 80 |
| Levi Wells R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.32 | 20.0% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .360 | 3.85 | 19.2% | 9.8% | 132 | -0.47 | 3.70 | 192 | 80 |
| Anderson Brito R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.73 | 22.2% | 16.5% | 2.6% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 135 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 29 | 21.9% | 12.8% | 1.18 | 4.96 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |