Truman Pauley — OGILVIE

Truman Pauley P Kannapolis Cannon Ballers

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.3 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.22

FIP5.22

K%21.6%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%6.8%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4550

CMD3040

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	3	3	4	17	3	4	0	100%	1.4	17.6%	23.5%	-5.9%	0.0%	2.08	4.59	—
2025	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	3	3	4	17	3	4	0	100%	1.4	17.6%	23.5%	-5.9%	0.0%	2.08	4.59	—
2025	21	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	3	3	4	17	3	4	0	100%	1.4	17.6%	23.5%	-5.9%	0.0%	2.08	4.48	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	25	24	104	472	120	68	17	96%	4.1	18.8%	17.0%	1.8%	4.7%	5.30	6.23	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	25	24	104	472	120	68	17	96%	4.1	18.8%	17.0%	1.8%	4.7%	5.30	6.23	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	CWS	25	24	104	472	120	68	17	96%	4.1	25.4%	14.4%	11.0%	3.6%	5.30	4.75	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CWS	20	20	105	445	100	58	13	100%	5.3	22.4%	13.1%	9.3%	3.0%	4.99	4.90	0.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	CWS	19	19	108	456	104	55	14	100%	5.7	22.9%	12.0%	10.9%	3.0%	4.80	4.70	+0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	CWS	19	19	109	461	107	52	14	100%	5.7	23.2%	11.3%	11.9%	3.0%	4.66	4.58	+0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	CWS	18	18	109	461	108	52	14	100%	6.1	23.4%	11.2%	12.2%	3.0%	4.59	4.55	+0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	CWS	18	18	108	454	106	51	14	100%	6.0	23.4%	11.3%	12.1%	3.0%	4.59	4.59	+0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	CWS	17	17	104	441	103	50	14	100%	6.1	23.3%	11.4%	11.9%	3.1%	4.64	4.68	+0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	CWS	17	17	100	421	97	49	14	100%	5.9	23.0%	11.6%	11.4%	3.3%	4.74	4.81	+0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	94	396	90	47	14	100%	5.9	22.7%	11.9%	10.7%	3.5%	4.89	4.98	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	CWS	10	10	52	220	49	29	7	100%	5.2	22.4%	13.1%	9.3%	3.1%	5.02	4.93	0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	75	317	73	38	10	100%	5.8	22.9%	12.0%	10.9%	3.0%	4.83	4.73	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	CWS	15	15	89	376	87	43	11	100%	5.9	23.2%	11.3%	11.9%	3.0%	4.69	4.61	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	CWS	16	16	95	401	94	45	12	100%	5.9	23.4%	11.2%	12.2%	3.0%	4.62	4.58	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	CWS	16	16	97	410	96	46	13	100%	6.1	23.4%	11.3%	12.1%	3.1%	4.62	4.62	+0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	CWS	16	16	96	405	94	46	13	100%	6.0	23.3%	11.4%	11.9%	3.2%	4.67	4.71	+0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	CWS	16	16	93	393	90	46	13	100%	5.8	23.0%	11.6%	11.4%	3.3%	4.77	4.84	+0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	CWS	15	15	88	372	84	44	13	100%	5.9	22.7%	11.9%	10.7%	3.5%	4.92	5.01	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		116	116	685	2892	668	337	92	100%	5.9	23.1%	11.6%	11.5%	3.2%	4.75	4.36	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	195	98	27	100%	5.9	23.1%	11.6%	11.5%	3.2%	4.75	4.36	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		28	27	108	489	92	84	22	96%	3.9	18.8%	17.2%	1.5%	4.5%	5.17	6.18	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	50	200	906	170	156	41	96%	3.9	18.8%	17.2%	1.5%	4.5%	5.17	6.18	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Truman Pauley (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	21.6%	14.9%	3.1%	—	4.72	22.9%	10.7%	322	-0.50	—	—	—
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	88
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	84
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	82
Carlos Lagrange R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	22.1%	15.5%	2.1%	.291	3.97	25.4%	12.1%	198	-0.37	3.66	272	81
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	81
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	80
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.41	20.0%	8.4%	215	-1.19	4.34	257	80
Shane Davis R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP	4.19	20.9%	14.2%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	129	80
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	80
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	80
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	79
Will Bednar R 2022 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP	5.71	20.5%	14.1%	4.7%	.173	4.78	26.6%	6.3%	95	-0.93	3.38	198	79
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	79
Damon Casetta-Stubbs R 2021 · 6.00 FIP	22	SP	6.00	23.1%	17.1%	4.9%	.284	6.77	10.5%	-6.5%	37	+0.77	4.29	122	79
Blake Whitney R 2018 · 4.11 FIP	22	SP	4.11	19.1%	16.1%	1.1%	.338	6.22	25.6%	13.5%	33	+2.11	3.46	268	79
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	78
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	78
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	77
Evan Johnson R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	22	SP	4.42	15.3%	14.2%	1.5%	.287	4.56	25.7%	8.6%	65	+0.14	4.42	103	77
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	95	23.0%	11.8%	1.20	4.75
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45