Player 831560
P
Fresno Grizzlies
Age —
—HP
A
peak 0.3 · 2034
2026 ROS PROJECTION45 act + 32 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINST110
ERA4.41
FIP4.41
K%23.1%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%13.3%
ROS IP32
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 77 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career (MLE) + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | — | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 16 | 4 | 45 | 213 | 46 | 36 | 5 | 25% | 2.8 | 16.0% | 19.9% | -4.0% | 3.1% | 5.56 | 5.95 | -0.7 |
| ROS | — | MLB | COL | 30 | 0 | 32 | 134 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.7% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | — | MLB | COL | — | — | 77 | 347 | 77 | 49 | 9 | — | — | 22.2% | 14.1% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 5.09 | 5.32 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | COL | 31 | 0 | 32 | 136 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | COL | 31 | 0 | 32 | 137 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 14.8% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | COL | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 8.8% | 15.4% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.18 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | COL | 32 | 0 | 33 | 141 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 8.6% | 15.9% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.12 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | COL | 32 | 0 | 34 | 142 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 8.5% | 16.4% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 4.06 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | COL | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 16.9% | 2.9% | 4.04 | 4.00 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 25 | MLB | COL | 33 | 0 | 34 | 146 | 37 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.7% | 8.2% | 17.4% | 2.9% | 3.98 | 3.94 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 25 | MLB | COL | 33 | 0 | 35 | 147 | 38 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.0% | 8.1% | 18.0% | 2.9% | 3.93 | 3.89 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 25 | MLB | COL | 34 | 0 | 35 | 149 | 39 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.4% | 8.0% | 18.4% | 2.9% | 3.87 | 3.83 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 25 | MLB | COL | 34 | 0 | 36 | 151 | 40 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.8% | 7.8% | 18.9% | 2.9% | 3.81 | 3.78 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 25 | MLB | COL | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 41 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.2% | 7.7% | 19.4% | 2.8% | 3.76 | 3.72 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 25 | MLB | COL | 35 | 0 | 37 | 155 | 43 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.5% | 7.6% | 20.0% | 2.8% | 3.70 | 3.66 | +0.4 |
| 2039 | 25 | MLB | COL | 35 | 0 | 37 | 157 | 44 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.9% | 7.4% | 20.4% | 2.8% | 3.65 | 3.61 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 16 | 4 | 45 | 213 | 34 | 42 | 6 | 25% | 2.8 | 16.0% | 19.9% | -4.0% | 3.1% | 5.56 | 5.95 | -0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 71 | 18 | 200 | 940 | 150 | 185 | 26 | 25% | 2.8 | 16.0% | 19.9% | -4.0% | 3.1% | 5.56 | 5.95 | -1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Player 831560 (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 23.1% | 9.7% | 3.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 81 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 80 |
| Connor Schultz R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.05 | 19.7% | 5.3% | 3.5% | .283 | 3.86 | 19.3% | 11.7% | 124 | -0.19 | 3.47 | 171 | 78 |
| Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 78 |
| Dylan King R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.28 | 26.7% | 9.8% | 4.0% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 121 | 77 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.65 | 19.5% | 11.5% | 99 | +0.39 | 3.81 | 233 | 77 |
| Noah Bremer R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.24 | 18.0% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.88 | 13.1% | 1.2% | 46 | +1.64 | 3.14 | 271 | 76 |
| Tristan Stevens R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .411 | 3.71 | 15.0% | 7.7% | 91 | -0.57 | 3.71 | 126 | 76 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.43 | 18.4% | 2.3% | 111 | +0.24 | 3.87 | 192 | 76 |
| Jake Lyons R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.31 | 20.1% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 174 | 76 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2029 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 75 |
| Brayden Spears R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.25 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 105 | 75 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.03 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .275 | 8.37 | 16.9% | -3.1% | 25 | +4.34 | 4.03 | 161 | 75 |
| Michael King R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.55 | 21.5% | 9.1% | 3.8% | .316 | 2.73 | 28.3% | 20.8% | 219 | -1.82 | 1.96 | 948 | 75 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .331 | 5.46 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.57 | 3.89 | 141 | 74 |
| Joe Vogatsky R 2025 · 4.82 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.82 | 21.0% | 8.8% | 4.3% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.82 | 120 | 74 |
| Brett Gillis R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 74 |
| Darien Smith R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.47 | 17.6% | 8.5% | 1.4% | .253 | 4.67 | 19.0% | 6.1% | 32 | +1.20 | 3.47 | 102 | 74 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.36 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.39 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.36 | 152 | 74 |
| Jake Curtis R 2025 · 3.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.34 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 1.9% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 105 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 14 | 34 | 25.6% | 8.3% | 1.12 | 4.01 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| Brad Hand ('23) | 9 | 64 | 27.2% | 8.6% | 0.89 | 3.53 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Trevor May ('23) | 8 | 51 | 27.6% | 8.3% | 1.18 | 3.83 |
| Joe Kelly ('24) | 9 | 56 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 0.81 | 4.40 |
| Jesse Chavez ('24) | 9 | 82 | 22.2% | 6.9% | 1.26 | 3.94 |