Jake Curtis — OGILVIE

Jake Curtis P Winston-Salem Dash

Age 24 RHP 5'10" / 170 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 41 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 96

ERA4.18

FIP4.18

K%20.3%

BB%6.6%

K-BB%13.8%

ROS IP42

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.2M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	1	59	258	69	13	4	3%	1.9	19.1%	6.1%	13.0%	2.1%	3.49	3.43	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	1	59	258	69	13	4	3%	1.9	19.1%	6.1%	13.0%	2.1%	3.49	3.43	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	1	59	258	69	13	4	3%	1.9	26.7%	5.0%	21.7%	1.6%	3.49	2.31	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	35	5	85	344	78	13	7	14%	2.4	18.4%	4.6%	13.7%	2.3%	3.27	3.41	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	35	5	85	344	78	13	7	14%	2.4	18.4%	4.6%	13.7%	2.3%	3.27	3.41	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	CWS	33	5	80	323	77	13	6	15%	2.4	23.8%	4.0%	19.8%	1.9%	3.14	2.62	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	CWS	2	0	5	21	1	0	1	0%	2.5	4.8%	0.0%	4.8%	4.8%	5.40	5.31	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CWS	81	0	85	357	75	23	10	0%	1.0	21.0%	6.6%	14.4%	2.9%	4.15	4.13	+0.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	CWS	81	0	85	357	76	24	10	0%	1.0	21.2%	6.6%	14.6%	2.9%	4.13	4.11	+0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	CWS	79	0	83	352	75	24	10	0%	1.1	21.3%	6.7%	14.5%	3.0%	4.15	4.16	+0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	CWS	77	0	81	341	72	24	10	0%	1.0	21.2%	6.9%	14.3%	3.1%	4.21	4.24	+0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	CWS	74	0	77	326	75	21	10	0%	1.0	22.9%	6.3%	16.6%	3.2%	4.15	4.10	+0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	CWS	69	0	73	307	69	20	10	0%	1.1	22.6%	6.6%	15.9%	3.4%	4.23	4.28	+0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	CWS	34	0	36	152	32	10	4	0%	1.1	21.0%	6.6%	14.4%	2.9%	4.18	4.16	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	CWS	53	0	56	236	50	16	7	0%	1.1	21.2%	6.6%	14.6%	2.9%	4.16	4.14	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	CWS	61	0	64	270	57	18	8	0%	1.0	21.3%	6.7%	14.5%	3.0%	4.18	4.19	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	CWS	65	0	68	287	61	20	9	0%	1.0	21.2%	6.9%	14.3%	3.1%	4.24	4.27	+0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	CWS	65	0	68	287	66	18	9	0%	1.0	22.9%	6.3%	16.6%	3.3%	4.18	4.13	+0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	CWS	62	0	65	274	62	18	10	0%	1.0	22.6%	6.6%	15.9%	3.5%	4.26	4.31	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		341	0	358	1511	329	100	47	0%	1.0	21.8%	6.6%	15.1%	3.1%	4.20	3.83	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	184	56	26	0%	1.0	21.8%	6.6%	15.1%	3.1%	4.20	3.83	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		66	6	145	602	112	32	14	9%	2.2	18.7%	5.3%	13.4%	2.2%	3.36	3.42	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		91	8	200	832	155	44	19	9%	2.2	18.7%	5.3%	13.4%	2.2%	3.36	3.42	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Curtis (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.18	20.3%	6.6%	2.9%	—	4.13	21.2%	14.5%	252	-0.05	—	—	—
Josh Advocate R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.71	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.07	3.71	118	89
Danny Hrbek R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	21.3%	7.5%	3.1%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	100	88
Casey Cobb R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SU	3.48	21.8%	6.2%	2.6%	.261	5.59	17.2%	8.3%	118	+2.11	3.48	191	86
Breckin Williams R 2018 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	22.6%	7.3%	2.8%	.282	2.78	23.4%	15.8%	48	-0.87	2.76	107	85
Jaycob Deese R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	23	SU	4.68	17.4%	6.8%	4.0%	.309	4.83	13.6%	4.4%	140	+0.15	3.28	208	84
Nick Merkel R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	25	SU	3.99	22.8%	7.1%	3.5%	.284	3.44	20.7%	10.3%	129	-0.55	3.15	205	84
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	84
Joshua Loeschorn R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	23	SU	3.86	24.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.272	4.43	17.1%	8.4%	83	+0.57	3.08	151	84
John Stankiewicz R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	24	SU	3.91	19.3%	6.6%	2.9%	.251	4.47	16.2%	7.1%	107	+0.56	2.78	271	84
Ty Weber R 2022 · 4.08 FIP	24	SU	4.08	15.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.288	6.31	8.7%	-1.1%	28	+2.23	4.08	144	84
J.R. Graham R 2015 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	18.7%	7.4%	3.5%	.317	3.63	20.4%	10.1%	61	-0.76	3.31	125	84
Eric Karch R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	16.0%	6.2%	2.3%	.324	4.70	20.3%	16.1%	35	+0.92	3.78	104	83
Dakota Donovan R 2021 · 3.15 FIP	24	SU	3.15	22.2%	8.4%	1.6%	.310	3.55	20.3%	8.9%	95	+0.40	3.15	153	83
Justin Courtney R 2021 · 4.58 FIP	25	SU	4.58	19.0%	5.9%	4.3%	.364	6.21	17.3%	5.0%	68	+1.63	4.58	108	83
Matt Pierpont R 2015 · 4.21 FIP	24	SU	4.21	17.8%	7.1%	3.1%	.295	3.25	21.7%	13.8%	190	-0.96	2.76	280	83
Alex Phillips R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	24	SU	3.26	22.0%	8.0%	1.8%	.263	4.62	23.2%	14.6%	72	+1.36	3.26	139	83
Nelson Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.42 FIP	25	SU	3.42	19.6%	7.7%	1.8%	.293	4.98	17.7%	7.8%	115	+1.56	3.42	258	82
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	23.4%	8.2%	2.5%	.262	6.07	20.4%	11.3%	128	+2.55	3.52	207	82
Joe Colón J R 2015 · 3.27 FIP	25	SU	3.27	19.4%	7.4%	1.6%	.312	4.07	20.7%	7.8%	65	+0.80	3.27	113	82
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	75	21.5%	6.6%	1.18	4.17
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04