Jake Curtis
P
Winston-Salem Dash
Age 24
RHP
5'10" / 170 lbs
A+
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION51 act + 42 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116107vR 98
ERA4.27
FIP4.27
K%22.3%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%13.9%
ROS IP42
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 92 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 1 | 59 | 258 | 69 | 13 | 4 | 3% | 1.9 | 19.1% | 6.1% | 13.0% | 2.3% | 3.49 | 3.51 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 1 | 59 | 258 | 69 | 13 | 4 | 3% | 1.9 | 26.7% | 5.0% | 21.7% | 1.6% | 3.49 | 2.31 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 22 | 2 | 51 | 217 | 50 | 11 | 4 | 9% | 2.3 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 12.8% | 1.9% | 3.88 | 3.34 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CWS | 40 | 0 | 42 | 175 | 39 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.3% | 8.4% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.27 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 92 | 392 | 89 | 26 | 9 | — | — | 22.7% | 6.6% | 16.1% | 2.3% | 4.06 | 3.76 | +1.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.3% | 8.4% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 3.89 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 40 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 8.4% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 41 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 8.4% | 14.7% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 39 | 0 | 41 | 175 | 40 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.24 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 38 | 0 | 40 | 170 | 39 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 8.7% | 14.2% | 3.1% | 4.30 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 8.4% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.21 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 27 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 8.4% | 14.7% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.20 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 8.7% | 14.2% | 3.1% | 4.30 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 107 | 0 | 112 | 473 | 109 | 40 | 14 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 3.87 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 195 | 71 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 3.87 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 53 | 3 | 110 | 475 | 91 | 30 | 10 | 6% | 2.1 | 19.2% | 6.3% | 12.9% | 2.1% | 3.67 | 3.44 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 96 | 5 | 200 | 861 | 165 | 54 | 18 | 6% | 2.1 | 19.2% | 6.3% | 12.9% | 2.1% | 3.67 | 3.44 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Curtis (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.27 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.22 | 23.0% | 14.5% | 125 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Danny Hrbek R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.08 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 3.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 100 | 89 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 89 |
| Josh Advocate R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.58 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.59 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 75 | +0.01 | 3.58 | 118 | 87 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 87 |
| Breckin Williams R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.74 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .282 | 2.79 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 48 | -0.95 | 2.72 | 107 | 87 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 87 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.17 | 22.2% | 8.4% | 1.6% | .310 | 3.68 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 95 | +0.51 | 3.17 | 153 | 86 |
| Joshua Loeschorn R 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.74 | 24.5% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .272 | 4.60 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 67 | +0.86 | 3.04 | 135 | 86 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 86 |
| Trey McLoughlin R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.89 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .295 | 4.73 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 95 | +0.84 | 3.78 | 217 | 86 |
| Bear Bellomy R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.16 | 23.1% | 6.9% | 3.9% | .274 | 5.47 | 15.0% | 8.2% | 72 | +1.31 | 4.16 | 139 | 86 |
| Nick Merkel R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.90 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 3.3% | .284 | 3.25 | 20.8% | 10.5% | 125 | -0.65 | 3.08 | 201 | 86 |
| Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.31 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .262 | 6.15 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 128 | +2.84 | 3.31 | 207 | 85 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.62 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.45 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.17 | 3.02 | 214 | 85 |
| Alex Phillips R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.49 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.23 | 3.26 | 139 | 85 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.49 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .233 | 3.63 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.86 | 3.51 | 156 | 84 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 84 |
| Casey Cobb R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.73 | 21.8% | 6.2% | 3.1% | .261 | 5.72 | 17.2% | 8.3% | 118 | +1.99 | 3.73 | 191 | 84 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.88 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .299 | 5.10 | 22.4% | 6.5% | 121 | +1.22 | 3.88 | 158 | 84 |
| Cole Ayers R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.1% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .298 | 5.00 | 15.2% | -0.4% | 32 | +1.14 | 3.52 | 171 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 41 | 22.8% | 8.5% | 1.14 | 4.25 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |