Jaycob Deese

P Altoona Curve

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	35	2	51	6.31	5.16	13.4%	7.4%	—	K 11.4% · BB 7.9% · FIP 5.77
2025	25	A+PIT	33	0	39	3.72	2.74	18.0%	6.6%	—	K 13.8% · BB 7.6% · FIP 3.28
2026	26	MIX2 levels	39	0	62	7.15	4.69	18.4%	10.1%	—	K 15.0% · BB 11.2% · FIP 5.17
2027PROJ	27	MLBPIT	1	0	1	5.09	5.09	15.8%	10.1%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBPIT	10	0	10	5.06	5.09	16.4%	10.1%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsJustin Lehr (age 27) · Francisco Rodriguez (age 27) · Luis Mateo (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.09

FIP5.09

K%15.8%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%5.8%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	3	0	4	15	5	1	0	0%	1.3	33.3%	6.7%	26.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.13	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	3	0	4	15	5	1	0	0%	1.3	33.3%	6.7%	26.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.35	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	32	3	68	287	65	17	11	9%	2.1	17.4%	6.8%	10.6%	4.0%	5.29	4.68	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	32	3	68	287	65	17	11	9%	2.1	22.6%	5.9%	16.7%	3.8%	5.29	4.04	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	2	51	231	31	17	9	6%	1.5	11.4%	7.9%	3.5%	4.8%	6.31	5.77	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	2	51	231	31	17	9	6%	1.5	11.4%	7.9%	3.5%	4.8%	6.31	5.77	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	2	51	231	31	17	9	6%	1.5	13.4%	7.4%	6.1%	3.9%	6.31	5.16	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	33	0	39	167	30	11	1	0%	1.2	13.8%	7.6%	6.3%	0.7%	3.72	3.28	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	33	0	39	167	30	11	1	0%	1.2	13.8%	7.6%	6.3%	0.7%	3.72	3.28	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	33	0	39	167	30	11	1	0%	1.2	18.0%	6.6%	11.4%	0.6%	3.72	2.74	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	62	288	53	29	9	0%	1.6	15.0%	11.2%	3.8%	3.5%	7.15	5.17	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	62	288	53	29	9	0%	1.6	15.0%	11.2%	3.8%	3.5%	7.15	5.17	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	62	288	53	29	9	0%	1.6	18.4%	10.1%	8.3%	3.1%	7.15	4.69	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	PIT	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	15.8%	10.1%	5.8%	3.0%	5.09	5.09	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	PIT	25	0	27	112	18	11	4	0%	1.1	16.4%	10.1%	6.3%	3.1%	5.06	5.09	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	PIT	10	0	10	42	7	4	1	0%	1.0	16.4%	10.1%	6.3%	3.1%	5.06	5.09	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	42	7	4	1	0%	1.0	16.4%	10.1%	6.3%	3.1%	5.06	4.71	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	140	80	20	0%	1.1	16.4%	10.1%	6.3%	3.1%	5.06	4.71	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		142	5	224	988	148	84	34	4%	1.6	15.0%	8.5%	6.5%	3.4%	5.67	4.78	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		127	4	200	883	132	75	30	4%	1.6	15.0%	8.5%	6.5%	3.4%	5.67	4.78	-1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAltoona Curve · 60 IPFIP 4.42 → 5.17 (+0.75)K% 18.5% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.55%	—	×0.810	15.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.18%	—	×1.100	11.20%
HR / BF /BF	2.91%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.49%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.42 → 5.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 39 IPFIP 2.75 → 3.28 (+0.54)K% 18.0% → 13.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.96%	—	×0.770	13.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.59%	—	×1.150	7.57%
HR / BF /BF	0.60%	÷1.048	×1.250	0.71%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 2.75 → 3.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 42 IPFIP 5.04 → 5.77 (+0.72)K% 14.8% → 11.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.81%	—	×0.770	11.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.88%	—	×1.150	7.91%
HR / BF /BF	4.23%	÷1.106	×1.250	4.79%

Result: FIP 5.04 → 5.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAltoona Curve · 9 IPFIP 5.01 → 5.80 (+0.79)K% 7.1% → 5.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	7.14%	—	×0.810	5.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×1.100	10.48%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷0.844	×1.200	3.39%

Result: FIP 5.01 → 5.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 68 IPFIP 4.04 → 4.68 (+0.64)K% 22.6% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.65%	—	×0.770	17.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.92%	—	×1.150	6.81%
HR / BF /BF	3.83%	÷1.202	×1.250	3.98%

Result: FIP 4.04 → 4.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jaycob Deese (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.09	15.8%	10.1%	3.0%	—	5.09	16.4%	6.3%	27	+0.00	—	—	—
Justin Lehr R 2005 · 4.58 FIP	27	SU	4.58	14.9%	10.4%	2.6%	.252	4.23	16.0%	8.0%	16	-0.35	4.23	148	90
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	90
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	88
Jose Casilla R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	27	SU	4.65	13.0%	8.0%	3.0%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	104	87
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	87
Greg Burke R 2009 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	16.2%	8.8%	2.0%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	139	86
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	85
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	85
Tyler Mizenko R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	26	SU	5.15	13.3%	10.2%	3.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	104	85
Ryan Doolittle R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	27	SU	4.03	15.1%	6.7%	2.5%	.315	4.38	13.9%	6.8%	44	+0.35	4.03	101	85
Adrian Garza R 2015 · 5.47 FIP	27	SU	5.47	14.9%	10.5%	4.2%	.360	4.17	13.1%	6.5%	84	-1.30	3.94	229	85
Scot Shields R 2002 · 4.27 FIP	27	SU	4.27	16.0%	10.6%	2.1%	.201	3.01	22.1%	15.0%	345	-1.26	2.77	686	84
Leo Rosales R 2008 · 3.91 FIP	27	SU	3.91	13.2%	8.8%	1.5%	.288	4.05	16.2%	9.3%	62	+0.14	3.85	130	84
Geoff Geary R 2004 · 4.85 FIP	27	SU	4.85	15.0%	6.5%	4.0%	.295	3.65	15.0%	9.5%	217	-1.20	3.16	345	84
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	84
Aaron Kurcz R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	15.4%	8.4%	3.6%	.301	3.97	26.2%	21.8%	50	-0.87	3.31	213	84
Tucker Healy R 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	15.6%	11.5%	2.0%	.321	5.20	19.2%	8.7%	24	+0.87	2.82	174	84
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	84
Chris Hatcher R 2012 · 5.60 FIP	27	SU	5.60	15.2%	9.1%	4.8%	.298	2.68	26.4%	20.9%	95	-2.92	2.51	246	84
Guido Knudson R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SU	4.69	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	31	16.1%	10.1%	1.19	5.08
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Jeff Manship ('16)	1.1	32	16.5%	9.3%	1.05	4.82
Vic Darensbourg ('05)	1.5	50	17.0%	9.3%	1.01	4.96
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*