Dakota Donovan
P
Rocket City Trash Pandas
+0.3
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'6" / 238 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.0%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%13.4%
IP49
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 35 | 0 | 58 | 250 | 74 | 18 | 3 | 22.2% | 8.4% | 1.6% | 2.33 | 3.16 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 36 | 0 | 48 | 202 | 58 | 17 | 2 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 1.7% | 3.19 | 3.49 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 38 | 0 | 50 | 242 | 58 | 27 | 2 | 18.9% | 12.5% | 1.0% | 5.76 | 3.65 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 48 | 20 | 6 | 23.0% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 46 | 19 | 6 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | LAA | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 44 | 19 | 6 | 22.6% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | LAA | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 42 | 18 | 6 | 22.4% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.51 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | LAA | 42 | — | 42 | 177 | 39 | 18 | 6 | 22.1% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.59 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | LAA | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 37 | 17 | 6 | 21.7% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 4.69 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | LAA | 38 | — | 38 | 159 | 34 | 17 | 5 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 3.4% | 4.81 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | LAA | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 31 | 16 | 5 | 20.9% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 4.93 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 109 | 0 | 156 | 694 | 145 | 72 | 10 | 20.9% | 10.4% | 1.4% | 3.69 | 3.43 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 140 | 0 | 200 | 890 | 186 | 92 | 13 | 20.9% | 10.4% | 1.4% | 3.69 | 3.43 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dakota Donovan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 23.0% | 9.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.48 | 22.6% | 12.9% | 137 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.75 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 3.12 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.63 | 2.31 | 187 | 87 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 85 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 85 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 84 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 83 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.03 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.65 | 2.38 | 160 | 83 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.95 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.92 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.03 | 3.51 | 134 | 83 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.61 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | +0.09 | 3.17 | 272 | 83 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 82 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 253 | 82 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.25 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .275 | 3.71 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 152 | -0.54 | 3.46 | 295 | 82 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 81 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 81 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 81 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 81 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 81 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 81 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 80 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2028 · 3.38 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.38 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.98 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.60 | 3.38 | 212 | 80 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.41 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.4% | .283 | 4.31 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.90 | 3.41 | 104 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.