John Stankiewicz

John Stankiewicz P Erie SeaWolves

+0.0 WAR

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 230 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2026

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%19.8%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%10.3%

IP45

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.2peak

2026

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†4545

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	22	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	8	5	25	106	30	9	0	18.5%	9.8%	0.0%	2.84	2.78	+0.6
2022	23	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	15	14	65	272	68	21	5	18.9%	8.9%	2.4%	4.18	3.95	+0.8
2023	24	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	37	0	67	263	66	15	7	19.3%	6.6%	2.9%	3.10	3.90	+0.8
2024	25	AAA	St. Paul Saints	43	0	62	260	53	14	6	15.8%	6.1%	3.5%	4.23	4.46	+0.4
2025	26	AAA	St. Paul Saints	44	1	56	240	55	29	4	16.6%	12.6%	2.3%	4.50	4.57	+0.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	AA	Erie SeaWolves	3	0	4	23	8	3	2	—	—	—	9.00	—	—
ROS	27	MLB	DET	45	—	45	191	36	22	6	18.6%	11.3%	2.9%	4.94	4.94	+0.0
2026 Total	27	MLB	DET	—	—	49	214	44	25	8	20.4%	11.5%	3.5%	5.27	4.54	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	28	MLB	DET	45	—	45	188	36	21	6	19.1%	11.1%	3.0%	4.89	4.91	+0.0
2028	29	MLB	DET	44	—	44	184	35	20	6	19.2%	11.0%	3.0%	4.88	4.90	+0.0
2029	30	MLB	DET	42	—	42	179	34	20	5	19.3%	11.0%	3.1%	4.90	4.94	+0.0
2030	31	MLB	DET	41	—	41	172	33	19	5	19.1%	11.1%	3.1%	4.95	5.00	-0.0
2031	32	MLB	DET	39	—	39	166	31	19	5	18.9%	11.3%	3.2%	5.03	5.08	-0.1
2032	33	MLB	DET	37	—	37	158	29	18	5	18.5%	11.4%	3.3%	5.12	5.18	-0.1
2033	34	MLB	DET	36	—	36	150	27	17	5	18.2%	11.6%	3.4%	5.22	5.29	-0.1
2034	35	MLB	DET	34	—	34	141	25	17	5	17.8%	11.9%	3.5%	5.33	5.41	-0.2
2035	36	MLB	DET	31	—	31	132	23	16	5	17.4%	12.1%	3.6%	5.46	5.55	-0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			150	20	278	1164	211	101	31	18.1%	8.7%	2.6%	3.94	4.13	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—			108	14	200	836	152	73	22	18.1%	8.7%	2.6%	3.94	4.13	+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
John Stankiewicz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	18.6%	11.3%	2.9%	—	4.92	19.2%	8.1%	130	-0.02	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP	28	SU	4.85	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.87	18.2%	10.2%	272	-0.98	3.45	315	89
Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	27	SU	4.30	20.4%	12.1%	2.5%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	113	88
Michael Blazek R 2026 · 4.97 FIP	27	SU	4.97	17.9%	11.9%	3.4%	.336	4.43	17.5%	8.0%	124	-0.54	3.06	221	86
Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.57 FIP	27	SU	4.57	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.08	3.70	187	86
Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	17.6%	11.2%	2.8%	.309	5.45	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.87	3.47	160	86
Wirfin Obispo R 2029 · 4.83 FIP	30	SU	4.83	18.6%	12.2%	3.2%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.52	1.30	218	86
Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.78 FIP	28	SW	4.78	16.5%	9.9%	3.3%	.297	3.85	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.93	3.85	102	86
Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.16 FIP	27	SU	5.16	21.1%	13.8%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.84	153	85
Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.38 FIP	28	SW	4.38	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.82	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.44	4.38	101	85
David Holman R 2026 · 5.48 FIP	27	SU	5.48	15.6%	12.7%	3.8%	.324	5.48	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.00	5.37	129	85
Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	27	SU	4.34	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.29	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.05	4.00	138	84
Guido Knudson R 2025 · 4.70 FIP	26	SU	4.70	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	84
Jonathan Aro R 2026 · 3.96 FIP	27	SU	3.96	17.3%	10.9%	1.7%	.280	3.30	12.7%	9.3%	64	-0.66	2.57	323	84
Bayden Root R 2025 · 3.81 FIP	26	SU	3.81	16.6%	9.8%	1.6%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	102	84
Rob Scahill R 2027 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	16.9%	7.7%	2.0%	.288	3.35	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.40	3.08	201	84
Tucker Healy R 2026 · 4.28 FIP	27	SU	4.28	15.6%	11.5%	1.9%	.321	5.21	19.2%	8.7%	24	+0.93	2.83	174	84
Gonzalez Germen R 2026 · 4.29 FIP	27	SW	4.29	18.0%	12.5%	2.1%	.296	3.94	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.35	3.68	146	83
Grant Black R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.46	15.2%	3.1%	156	+1.00	4.46	215	83
Adrian Garza R 2026 · 5.48 FIP	27	SU	5.48	14.9%	10.5%	4.2%	.360	4.17	13.1%	6.5%	84	-1.31	3.95	229	83
Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.26 FIP	27	SW	4.26	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.69	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.57	2.69	125	83

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.