Brett Gillis
P
Corpus Christi Hooks
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 215 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION73 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 101
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
K%20.1%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%11.2%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 132 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 25% | 1.3 | 45.5% | 18.2% | 27.3% | 0.0% | 1.69 | 1.56 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 25% | 1.3 | 45.5% | 18.2% | 27.3% | 0.0% | 1.69 | 1.60 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | 42.9% | 0.0% | 42.9% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.52 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | 42.9% | 0.0% | 42.9% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.10 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 12 | 6 | 47 | 197 | 52 | 15 | 4 | 50% | 3.9 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 1.6% | 2.70 | 3.37 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 12 | 6 | 47 | 197 | 52 | 15 | 4 | 50% | 3.9 | 26.4% | 7.6% | 18.8% | 2.0% | 2.70 | 2.95 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 15 | 13 | 73 | 302 | 59 | 25 | 10 | 87% | 4.8 | 15.8% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 3.96 | 5.10 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 60 | 251 | 51 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.1% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | HOU | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 132 | 553 | 110 | 47 | 17 | — | — | 19.8% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.18 | 4.80 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 20.1% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.11 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 59 | 247 | 51 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.47 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 57 | 240 | 49 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 20.5% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 54 | 229 | 47 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.4% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 4.59 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 43 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 6.4 | 20.2% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.73 | 4.83 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 4 | 4 | 22 | 93 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.5% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 38 | 160 | 33 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.3 | 20.4% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 7 | 7 | 40 | 169 | 34 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.2% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 4.78 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 22 | 22 | 135 | 571 | 116 | 53 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.4% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.32 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 172 | 78 | 27 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.4% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.32 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 32 | 20 | 127 | 528 | 101 | 49 | 15 | 62% | 4.0 | 19.1% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 2.9% | 3.34 | 4.23 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 32 | 200 | 834 | 159 | 77 | 24 | 62% | 4.0 | 19.1% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 2.9% | 3.34 | 4.23 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brett Gillis (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 20.1% | 8.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.55 | 20.5% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 82 |
| Jake Walters R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.17 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .316 | 5.97 | 15.5% | -0.2% | 72 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 261 | 81 |
| Preston Johnson R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 81 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 79 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 79 |
| Justin Topa R 2027 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .374 | 2.66 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 40 | -1.39 | 2.66 | 259 | 78 |
| Cody Sedlock R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.83 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .301 | 4.18 | 20.1% | 7.1% | 80 | -0.65 | 4.16 | 378 | 78 |
| Dawson Netz R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 77 |
| Chad Dallas R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.40 | 19.8% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 322 | 77 |
| Whit Mayberry R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.51 | 16.2% | 4.3% | 2.2% | .267 | 2.64 | 12.3% | 7.7% | 11 | -0.87 | 2.64 | 140 | 77 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 77 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | .263 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.61 | 3.14 | 406 | 76 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 76 |
| Jake Walkinshaw R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 17.5% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .296 | 4.92 | 13.3% | 3.1% | 116 | +0.26 | 2.20 | 286 | 76 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.94 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 3.7% | .285 | 6.04 | 14.5% | 4.2% | 81 | +1.10 | 4.52 | 239 | 75 |
| Markus Solbach R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.61 | 16.9% | 6.1% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.76 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 111 | +1.15 | 3.25 | 391 | 75 |
| Kyle Smith R 2024 · 3.33 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.33 | 15.2% | 5.7% | 1.4% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 159 | 75 |
| Jason Alexander R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .380 | 4.42 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 150 | +0.53 | 2.08 | 796 | 75 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 75 |
| Nick Pasquale R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.73 | 16.8% | 12.7% | 2.6% | .306 | 3.97 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 50 | -0.76 | 3.16 | 308 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 56 | 20.3% | 9.2% | 1.16 | 4.54 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |