Brett Gillis — OGILVIE

Brett Gillis P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.0 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION89 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.46

FIP4.46

K%20.1%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%11.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 94 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	1	5	22	10	4	0	25%	1.3	45.5%	18.2%	27.3%	0.0%	1.69	1.56	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	1	5	22	10	4	0	25%	1.3	45.5%	18.2%	27.3%	0.0%	1.69	1.60	—
2023	23	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	1	0	2	7	3	0	0	0%	2.0	42.9%	0.0%	42.9%	0.0%	0.00	-0.52	—
2023	23	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	1	0	2	7	3	0	0	0%	2.0	42.9%	0.0%	42.9%	0.0%	0.00	-0.52	—
2023	23	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	1	0	2	7	3	0	0	0%	2.0	42.9%	0.0%	42.9%	0.0%	0.00	0.10	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	12	6	47	197	52	15	4	50%	3.9	20.3%	8.8%	11.6%	2.0%	2.70	3.57	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	12	6	47	197	52	15	4	50%	3.9	20.3%	8.8%	11.6%	2.0%	2.70	3.57	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	12	6	47	197	52	15	4	50%	3.9	26.4%	7.6%	18.8%	2.0%	2.70	2.95	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	19	17	89	371	74	30	13	89%	4.7	16.2%	8.9%	7.3%	4.2%	3.64	5.17	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	19	17	89	371	74	30	13	89%	4.7	16.2%	8.9%	7.3%	4.2%	3.64	5.17	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	HOU	19	17	89	371	74	30	13	89%	4.7	19.9%	8.1%	11.9%	3.5%	3.64	4.36	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	HOU	1	1	5	21	4	2	1	100%	5.0	20.1%	8.8%	11.3%	2.8%	4.46	4.46	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	94	392	78	32	14	—	—	20.0%	8.1%	11.8%	3.5%	3.68	5.13	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	86	363	74	32	11	100%	6.1	20.3%	8.8%	11.5%	2.9%	4.46	4.48	+0.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	83	352	71	31	11	100%	6.0	20.3%	8.9%	11.4%	3.0%	4.50	4.55	+0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	80	336	74	28	11	100%	6.1	22.1%	8.2%	13.9%	3.2%	4.43	4.39	+0.5
2030	30	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	75	316	69	27	11	100%	6.2	21.8%	8.6%	13.3%	3.4%	4.51	4.57	+0.3
2031	31	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	70	295	63	26	11	100%	5.8	21.4%	8.9%	12.5%	3.6%	4.66	4.77	+0.1
2032	32	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	65	273	57	25	10	100%	5.9	21.0%	9.3%	11.7%	3.8%	4.86	4.99	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	HOU	5	5	32	135	27	12	4	100%	6.4	20.3%	8.8%	11.5%	2.8%	4.42	4.44	+0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	HOU	8	8	50	211	43	19	6	100%	6.2	20.3%	8.9%	11.4%	2.9%	4.45	4.50	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	HOU	9	9	56	236	52	19	7	100%	6.2	22.1%	8.2%	13.9%	3.1%	4.38	4.34	+0.3
2030	30	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	59	249	54	21	8	100%	5.9	21.8%	8.6%	13.3%	3.3%	4.46	4.52	+0.2
2031	31	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	58	245	52	22	9	100%	5.8	21.4%	8.9%	12.5%	3.5%	4.61	4.72	+0.1
2032	32	MLB CTX	HOU	9	9	56	236	50	22	9	100%	6.2	21.0%	9.3%	11.7%	3.7%	4.80	4.93	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	52	312	1315	280	115	43	100%	6.0	21.3%	8.8%	12.5%	3.3%	4.53	4.21	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	180	74	28	100%	6.0	21.3%	8.8%	12.5%	3.3%	4.53	4.21	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		36	24	143	597	113	54	19	67%	4.0	18.9%	9.1%	9.8%	3.3%	3.21	4.44	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	34	200	835	158	76	27	67%	4.0	18.9%	9.1%	9.8%	3.3%	3.21	4.44	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brett Gillis (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	20.1%	8.8%	2.8%	—	4.47	20.9%	12.3%	249	+0.01	—	—	—
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	84
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	82
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	81
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	81
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.89	14.8%	0.9%	72	+1.86	3.51	261	81
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	81
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	81
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	79
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	79
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	78
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	78
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	280	78
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	78
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	77
Whit Mayberry R 2016 · 3.54 FIP	26	SP-	3.54	16.2%	4.3%	2.3%	.267	2.64	12.3%	7.7%	11	-0.90	2.64	140	77
Cody Sedlock R 2021 · 5.05 FIP	26	SP-	5.05	19.9%	10.9%	4.1%	.301	4.21	20.1%	7.1%	80	-0.84	4.21	378	76
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	76
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	76
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.85	13.9%	4.7%	81	+1.14	4.43	239	75
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	74	21.0%	8.8%	1.25	4.55
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86