Darien Smith — OGILVIE

Darien Smith P Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 207 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION47 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%16.7%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%7.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	3	71	291	68	21	4	15%	3.5	17.6%	8.5%	9.1%	1.5%	1.91	3.53	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	3	71	291	68	21	4	15%	3.5	17.6%	8.5%	9.1%	1.5%	1.91	3.53	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	3	71	291	68	21	4	15%	3.5	23.4%	7.2%	16.2%	1.4%	1.91	2.80	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	14	10	47	196	38	21	4	71%	3.4	19.0%	12.9%	6.1%	2.8%	3.42	4.67	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	14	10	47	196	38	21	4	71%	3.4	19.0%	12.9%	6.1%	2.8%	3.42	4.67	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	ROK RAW	SF	3	3	6	24	4	2	0	100%	1.9	16.7%	8.3%	8.3%	0.0%	3.18	2.75	—
2026	26	AA RAW	SF	7	5	32	128	30	15	3	71%	4.5	23.4%	11.7%	11.7%	2.3%	2.84	3.89	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	SF	4	2	10	44	4	4	1	50%	2.5	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	2.3%	5.40	4.73	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	SF	1	1	6	25	4	2	1	100%	5.9	16.7%	9.7%	7.0%	2.8%	4.83	4.83	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	53	221	42	23	5	—	—	19.1%	10.6%	8.5%	2.1%	3.58	4.69	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	SF	66	0	69	291	51	28	8	0%	1.0	17.4%	9.7%	7.7%	2.9%	4.80	4.81	-0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	SF	64	0	67	282	50	28	8	0%	1.0	17.7%	9.8%	7.9%	3.0%	4.82	4.86	-0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	SF	61	0	64	270	48	27	8	0%	1.0	17.8%	10.0%	7.7%	3.1%	4.90	4.96	-0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	SF	25	0	26	110	19	11	3	0%	1.0	17.4%	9.7%	7.7%	2.9%	4.80	4.81	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	SF	38	0	40	169	30	17	5	0%	1.1	17.7%	9.8%	7.9%	3.0%	4.82	4.86	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	SF	43	0	45	190	34	19	6	0%	1.0	17.8%	10.0%	7.7%	3.1%	4.90	4.96	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	0	111	469	83	46	14	0%	1.0	17.7%	9.9%	7.8%	3.0%	4.85	4.51	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	149	83	25	0%	1.1	17.7%	9.9%	7.8%	3.0%	4.85	4.51	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		34	13	118	487	88	50	10	38%	3.5	18.1%	10.2%	7.9%	2.0%	2.52	3.99	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	22	200	825	150	85	17	38%	3.5	18.1%	10.2%	7.9%	2.0%	2.52	3.99	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Darien Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	16.7%	9.7%	2.8%	—	4.87	17.6%	7.7%	200	+0.04	—	—	—
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	88
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	86
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	85
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	84
Phil Klein R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	26	SW	3.86	18.1%	11.0%	1.6%	.280	3.10	24.5%	17.9%	97	-0.76	3.10	178	83
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	83
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	83
Daniel Blair R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	16.6%	10.0%	2.1%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.29	4.10	171	82
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	82
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	82
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	82
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	82
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	81
André Rienzo R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	27	SW	4.22	15.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.264	4.02	19.8%	5.1%	74	-0.20	3.53	200	81
Bryce Conley R 2021 · 4.31 FIP	26	SW	4.31	17.9%	12.2%	2.2%	.285	4.22	16.4%	5.3%	48	-0.09	4.22	560	81
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	4.90	15.1%	4.9%	191	+0.47	3.37	399	81
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.85	13.9%	4.7%	81	+1.14	4.43	239	81
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	80
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	80
Alex Sanabia R 2015 · 4.44 FIP	26	SP-	4.44	11.4%	7.9%	2.4%	.358	3.66	11.1%	6.2%	161	-0.78	3.42	378	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	17.4%	9.8%	1.13	4.84
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43