Darien Smith
P
Richmond Flying Squirrels
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 207 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 110
ERA4.82
FIP4.82
K%16.7%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%7.0%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 103 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 3 | 71 | 291 | 68 | 21 | 4 | 15% | 3.5 | 17.6% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 1.4% | 1.91 | 3.47 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 3 | 71 | 291 | 68 | 21 | 4 | 15% | 3.5 | 23.4% | 7.2% | 16.2% | 1.4% | 1.91 | 2.80 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 8 | 6 | 33 | 134 | 31 | 15 | 3 | 75% | 4.1 | 19.0% | 12.9% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 3.31 | 4.67 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 49 | 29 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.7% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 4.82 | 4.82 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SF | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 4.82 | 4.82 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | SF | — | — | 103 | 430 | 80 | 44 | 11 | — | — | 18.7% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 4.34 | 4.77 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | SF | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 16.7% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 4.82 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SF | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 51 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.79 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SF | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 50 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.7% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 4.81 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | SF | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 48 | 27 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | 4.89 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SF | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.79 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SF | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 30 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.7% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 4.81 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | SF | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 34 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | 4.89 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 106 | 0 | 112 | 474 | 84 | 47 | 14 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.6% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 4.84 | 4.50 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 189 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 150 | 84 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.6% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 4.84 | 4.50 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 28 | 9 | 103 | 425 | 77 | 42 | 8 | 32% | 3.7 | 18.0% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 1.9% | 2.35 | 3.85 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 17 | 200 | 823 | 148 | 81 | 15 | 32% | 3.7 | 18.0% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 1.9% | 2.35 | 3.85 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Darien Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.82 | 16.7% | 9.7% | 2.8% | — | 4.87 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 200 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 86 |
| Josh Roeder R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 85 |
| Nolan Sanburn R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.25 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 169 | 84 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .331 | 5.46 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.57 | 3.89 | 141 | 82 |
| Phil Klein R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.6% | .280 | 3.17 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.66 | 3.17 | 178 | 81 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 80 |
| Mike Connolly R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.26 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 328 | 80 |
| Noah Bremer R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.24 | 18.0% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.88 | 13.1% | 1.2% | 46 | +1.64 | 3.14 | 271 | 80 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 80 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 80 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.60 | 17.9% | 12.2% | 2.7% | .285 | 4.61 | 16.4% | 5.3% | 48 | +0.01 | 4.60 | 529 | 80 |
| André Rienzo R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.24 | 15.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.00 | 19.8% | 5.1% | 74 | -0.24 | 3.58 | 200 | 80 |
| Jake McCasland R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.54 | 12.8% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.27 | 367 | 78 |
| Ranfi Casimiro R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.48 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.76 | 8.4% | -0.2% | 16 | +0.28 | 3.84 | 420 | 78 |
| Joel De La Cruz R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.28 | 10.3% | 6.7% | 2.2% | .276 | 4.47 | 14.4% | 5.8% | 120 | +0.19 | 4.28 | 205 | 78 |
| Brad Allen R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 14.0% | 12.6% | 1.3% | .315 | 6.07 | 14.7% | 1.5% | 87 | +1.85 | 4.22 | 149 | 78 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.20 | 14.2% | 6.7% | 2.6% | .284 | 3.46 | 13.6% | 6.2% | 55 | -0.74 | 3.46 | 274 | 78 |
| Sugar Ray Marimon R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.08 | 12.4% | 9.1% | 1.6% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 107 | 78 |
| Alex Sanabia R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.47 | 11.4% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .358 | 3.56 | 11.1% | 6.2% | 161 | -0.91 | 3.51 | 378 | 77 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.88 | 13.8% | 5.6% | 2.2% | .328 | 3.59 | 19.4% | 10.6% | 109 | -0.29 | 3.44 | 302 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 67 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 1.13 | 4.83 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |