Joe Vogatsky — OGILVIE

Joe Vogatsky P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 215 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION80 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.49

FIP5.49

K%18.3%

BB%14.7%

K-BB%3.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD4040

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	70	310	79	35	8	0%	1.9	19.0%	13.3%	5.7%	3.7%	4.52	5.19	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	70	310	79	35	8	0%	1.9	19.0%	13.3%	5.7%	3.7%	4.52	5.19	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	70	310	79	35	8	0%	1.9	25.5%	11.3%	14.2%	2.6%	4.52	3.83	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	33	1	80	361	92	31	11	3%	2.4	20.2%	9.6%	10.6%	3.7%	4.97	4.66	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	33	1	80	361	92	31	11	3%	2.4	20.2%	9.6%	10.6%	3.7%	4.97	4.66	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	BOS	13	1	33	151	44	9	6	8%	2.6	29.1%	6.0%	23.2%	4.0%	4.59	3.58	—
2026	24	AA RAW	BOS	20	0	46	210	48	22	5	0%	2.3	22.9%	10.5%	12.4%	2.4%	5.24	3.80	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	BOS	5	0	6	24	4	4	1	0%	1.1	18.3%	14.7%	3.6%	3.1%	5.49	5.49	-0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	85	385	96	35	12	—	—	25.0%	9.0%	16.1%	3.0%	5.01	4.72	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	BOS	75	0	79	334	64	44	10	0%	1.1	19.2%	13.3%	5.9%	3.1%	5.28	5.22	-0.6
2028	26	MLB MLE	BOS	75	0	79	334	66	43	10	0%	1.1	19.7%	12.9%	6.8%	3.1%	5.16	5.13	-0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	BOS	74	0	78	328	65	42	10	0%	1.1	19.9%	12.8%	7.1%	3.1%	5.12	5.13	-0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	BOS	72	0	76	319	63	41	10	0%	1.0	19.8%	12.9%	7.0%	3.2%	5.15	5.19	-0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	BOS	69	0	72	304	60	40	10	0%	1.0	19.6%	13.1%	6.5%	3.4%	5.25	5.32	-0.6
2032	30	MLB MLE	BOS	65	0	68	286	55	38	10	0%	1.0	19.2%	13.4%	5.8%	3.5%	5.40	5.50	-0.7
2027	25	MLB CTX	BOS	33	0	35	148	28	20	5	0%	1.1	19.2%	13.3%	5.9%	3.1%	5.28	5.22	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	BOS	50	0	53	224	44	29	7	0%	1.1	19.7%	12.9%	6.8%	3.1%	5.16	5.13	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	BOS	57	0	60	253	50	32	8	0%	1.1	19.9%	12.8%	7.1%	3.1%	5.12	5.13	-0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	BOS	61	0	64	270	54	35	9	0%	1.0	19.8%	12.9%	7.0%	3.2%	5.15	5.19	-0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	BOS	60	0	63	266	52	35	9	0%	1.1	19.6%	13.1%	6.5%	3.4%	5.25	5.32	-0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	BOS	58	0	61	258	50	35	9	0%	1.1	19.2%	13.4%	5.8%	3.5%	5.40	5.50	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		320	0	336	1418	278	185	46	0%	1.0	19.6%	13.1%	6.6%	3.2%	5.22	4.87	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	166	110	27	0%	1.0	19.6%	13.1%	6.6%	3.2%	5.22	4.87	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		70	1	149	671	132	76	25	1%	2.1	19.6%	11.3%	8.3%	3.7%	4.76	4.90	-3.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		94	1	200	899	176	101	33	1%	2.1	19.6%	11.3%	8.3%	3.7%	4.76	4.90	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Vogatsky (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.49	18.3%	14.7%	3.1%	—	5.16	19.6%	6.6%	236	-0.33	—	—	—
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	92
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	90
John Matthews R 2022 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	16.5%	13.0%	2.1%	.264	5.00	14.5%	-0.5%	70	+0.49	4.51	213	86
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	86
Jake Johansen R 2015 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	15.8%	12.8%	3.6%	.351	4.14	13.6%	3.0%	114	-1.20	3.65	162	86
Taylor Grover R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SU	5.03	15.1%	12.9%	2.9%	.229	4.30	18.7%	9.1%	150	-0.73	3.68	239	86
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	85
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	85
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	85
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	85
Everhett Hazelwood R 2023 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	19.0%	15.4%	4.1%	.343	9.36	17.5%	0.6%	14	+3.66	5.23	117	84
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	84
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	84
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	83
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	83
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	83
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	83
Ryan Ledbetter R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	24	SU	4.76	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.76	124	83
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	83
Kris Hall R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	18.3%	17.8%	1.5%	.281	7.01	12.7%	-7.8%	34	+2.38	4.63	106	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	74	19.4%	13.3%	1.24	5.26
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77