Joe Vogatsky
P
Portland Sea Dogs
+0.1
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'0" / 215 lbs
AA
peak 0.5 · 2028
ERA4.63
FIP4.63
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.0%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%11.7%
IP70
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2028
STUF4040
CTRL3030
CMD4040
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 37 | 0 | 70 | 310 | 79 | 35 | 8 | 19.0% | 13.3% | 3.7% | 4.52 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 3 | 0 | 8 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | 9.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BOS | 13 | 13 | 70 | 294 | 61 | 36 | 9 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 3.1% | 4.96 | 4.96 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 78 | 330 | 68 | 37 | 11 | 20.7% | 11.1% | 3.4% | 5.38 | 4.45 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 13 | 13 | 71 | 298 | 64 | 34 | 9 | 21.5% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 4.83 | 4.79 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 13 | 13 | 71 | 298 | 65 | 33 | 9 | 21.8% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.76 | 4.74 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 13 | 13 | 70 | 296 | 65 | 33 | 9 | 21.9% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.73 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 13 | 13 | 69 | 291 | 64 | 32 | 9 | 21.9% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.74 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 67 | 285 | 62 | 32 | 9 | 21.8% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.76 | 4.79 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 65 | 276 | 60 | 31 | 9 | 21.6% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 4.81 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 57 | 30 | 9 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 3.3% | 4.88 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 61 | 256 | 54 | 30 | 9 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 4.96 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 51 | 29 | 8 | 20.8% | 11.7% | 3.5% | 5.05 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 47 | 28 | 8 | 20.4% | 11.9% | 3.5% | 5.15 | 5.22 | -0.2 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 44 | 27 | 8 | 20.0% | 12.2% | 3.7% | 5.26 | 5.34 | -0.2 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 40 | 25 | 8 | 19.6% | 12.4% | 3.8% | 5.39 | 5.47 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 40 | 0 | 78 | 346 | 66 | 42 | 14 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 3.9% | 4.98 | 5.18 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 103 | 0 | 200 | 891 | 170 | 108 | 36 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 3.9% | 4.98 | 5.18 | +0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joe Vogatsky (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.96 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 3.1% | — | 4.75 | 21.7% | 10.5% | 211 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.50 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .290 | 4.91 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 162 | +0.41 | 4.50 | 217 | 95 |
| David Griffin R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.42 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .279 | 5.32 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.90 | 4.42 | 239 | 92 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.51 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.1% | .293 | 7.98 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.47 | 4.42 | 155 | 92 |
| Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.58 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 2.9% | .341 | 4.72 | 15.7% | 4.0% | 343 | +0.14 | 4.04 | 404 | 92 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.10 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.74 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.64 | 4.10 | 105 | 91 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.91 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.5% | .327 | 4.68 | 22.3% | 12.1% | 127 | -0.23 | 3.38 | 188 | 90 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.78 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .294 | 3.31 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.47 | 2.87 | 223 | 90 |
| Cody Tucker R 2027 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.99 | 22.0% | 12.0% | 4.1% | .272 | 5.30 | 15.8% | -1.9% | 40 | +0.31 | 4.99 | 105 | 90 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.83 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | -0.03 | 3.40 | 134 | 90 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 90 |
| Matt Lollis R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.56 | 18.5% | 12.2% | 2.7% | .237 | 5.00 | 19.2% | 4.7% | 56 | +0.44 | 4.56 | 120 | 89 |
| Hunter Dula R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.90 | 20.1% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .301 | 4.06 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 37 | -0.84 | 3.90 | 132 | 88 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.00 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 2.0% | .331 | 4.03 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 105 | +0.03 | 3.31 | 213 | 88 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.16 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .262 | 4.19 | 16.8% | 7.5% | 66 | +0.03 | 4.16 | 135 | 88 |
| Ryan Ledbetter R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.75 | 18.5% | 12.3% | 3.0% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 124 | 88 |
| Zach Jackson R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.01 | 20.8% | 12.4% | 3.8% | .261 | 2.42 | 33.6% | 19.6% | 76 | -2.59 | 2.34 | 309 | 88 |
| Tanner Jacobson R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.22 | 20.9% | 12.9% | 4.1% | .261 | 4.50 | 21.4% | 2.1% | 51 | -0.72 | 4.10 | 168 | 87 |
| David Trexler R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.58 | 17.7% | 13.4% | 2.3% | .313 | 4.44 | 18.3% | 4.8% | 31 | -0.14 | 4.44 | 100 | 87 |
| Jack Sinclair R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.92 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 3.4% | .258 | 4.01 | 20.2% | 8.2% | 121 | -0.91 | 2.86 | 245 | 87 |
| Bryan Pope R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.96 | 19.4% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .332 | 5.16 | 12.7% | -0.3% | 22 | +1.20 | 3.96 | 148 | 87 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.