Joe Vogatsky
P
Greenville Drive
Age 24
RHP
6'0" / 215 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION51 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140131vR 122
ERA5.40
FIP5.40
K%18.3%
BB%13.7%
K-BB%4.6%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 118 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 70 | 310 | 79 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.9 | 19.0% | 13.3% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.52 | 5.42 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 70 | 310 | 79 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.9 | 25.5% | 11.3% | 14.2% | 2.6% | 4.52 | 3.83 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 20 | 1 | 51 | 228 | 61 | 18 | 8 | 5% | 2.5 | 21.0% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 4.3% | 4.97 | 4.82 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BOS | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 52 | 39 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 13.7% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 5.40 | 5.40 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.3% | 13.7% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 5.40 | 5.40 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 118 | 512 | 113 | 57 | 17 | — | — | 22.1% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 5.22 | 5.15 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 18.3% | 13.7% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 5.40 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 55 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 5.21 | 5.16 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 57 | 35 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 12.3% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 5.10 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 56 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 12.2% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 5.07 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 23 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 5.21 | 5.16 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 37 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 12.3% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 5.10 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 44 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 12.2% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 5.07 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 121 | 0 | 127 | 534 | 105 | 66 | 17 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 12.3% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 5.11 | 4.71 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 166 | 104 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 12.3% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 5.11 | 4.71 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 57 | 1 | 120 | 538 | 107 | 61 | 22 | 2% | 2.1 | 19.8% | 11.4% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 4.71 | 5.16 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 95 | 2 | 200 | 894 | 177 | 102 | 37 | 2% | 2.1 | 19.8% | 11.4% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 4.71 | 5.16 | +0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joe Vogatsky (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.40 | 18.3% | 13.7% | 3.1% | — | 5.10 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 203 | -0.30 | — | — | — |
| David Trexler R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.91 | 17.7% | 13.4% | 2.9% | .313 | 4.44 | 18.3% | 4.8% | 31 | -0.47 | 4.44 | 100 | 95 |
| Brett Lockwood R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.51 | 16.2% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .312 | 4.61 | 11.0% | -6.3% | 79 | -0.90 | 4.29 | 132 | 88 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .262 | 4.62 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.13 | 4.51 | 151 | 87 |
| Marc Brakeman R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.71 | 18.3% | 13.7% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 156 | 87 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.40 | 15.1% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .229 | 4.26 | 18.7% | 9.1% | 150 | -1.14 | 3.63 | 239 | 87 |
| Jake Johansen R 2026 · 5.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.59 | 15.8% | 12.8% | 4.0% | .351 | 4.21 | 13.6% | 3.0% | 114 | -1.38 | 3.69 | 162 | 86 |
| John Matthews R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.40 | 16.5% | 13.0% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.95 | 14.5% | -0.5% | 70 | +0.55 | 4.40 | 213 | 86 |
| Hunter Hayes R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.78 | 18.0% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .316 | 6.43 | 12.6% | -6.5% | 33 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 210 | 85 |
| Reece Karalus R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.81 | 15.4% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.74 | 149 | 85 |
| Ryan Ledbetter R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.63 | 18.5% | 12.3% | 2.8% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.63 | 124 | 84 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.88 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .327 | 4.57 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 163 | -0.31 | 3.44 | 224 | 84 |
| Billy Seidl R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.87 | 18.3% | 14.2% | 2.8% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 102 | 84 |
| Jacob Webb R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.50 | 19.8% | 15.3% | 2.1% | .283 | 4.49 | 19.0% | 8.6% | 139 | -0.01 | 3.34 | 252 | 84 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 84 |
| Everhett Hazelwood R 2026 · 5.67 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.67 | 19.0% | 15.4% | 4.0% | .343 | 10.98 | 17.5% | 0.6% | 14 | +5.31 | 5.32 | 117 | 84 |
| Conor Steinbaugh R 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.77 | 16.0% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .281 | 6.87 | 14.3% | 0.8% | 39 | +2.10 | 4.77 | 107 | 84 |
| Matt Lollis R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.59 | 18.5% | 12.2% | 2.8% | .237 | 5.05 | 19.2% | 4.7% | 56 | +0.46 | 4.59 | 120 | 84 |
| Tanner Duncan R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.45 | 17.5% | 14.8% | 3.6% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 123 | 84 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 83 |
| Cody Scroggins R 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.62 | 17.4% | 15.1% | 3.8% | .263 | 4.25 | 18.6% | 4.4% | 59 | -1.37 | 3.67 | 108 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 68 | 19.3% | 12.7% | 1.21 | 5.19 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |