Brayden Spears
P
South Bend Cubs
+0.2
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'6" / 235 lbs
A+
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.43
FIP4.43
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.4%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%11.9%
IP60
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
STUF3535
CTRL4545
CMD4040
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 36 | 0 | 60 | 259 | 55 | 23 | 3 | 15.7% | 10.5% | 1.6% | 3.13 | 4.00 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 2 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.93 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 50 | 27 | 7 | 19.6% | 10.6% | 2.8% | 4.72 | 4.72 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 65 | 275 | 56 | 28 | 7 | 20.4% | 10.2% | 2.6% | 4.52 | 4.38 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 51 | 27 | 7 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 4.66 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 52 | 26 | 7 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.64 | 4.64 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 59 | — | 59 | 249 | 51 | 26 | 7 | 20.6% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.64 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 58 | — | 58 | 243 | 50 | 25 | 7 | 20.5% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.66 | 4.68 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 48 | 25 | 7 | 20.3% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.71 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 46 | 24 | 7 | 20.1% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.78 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 43 | 23 | 7 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 4.86 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 49 | — | 49 | 209 | 41 | 23 | 7 | 19.5% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.95 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 38 | 22 | 7 | 19.1% | 11.1% | 3.4% | 5.05 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 35 | 21 | 6 | 18.8% | 11.4% | 3.5% | 5.16 | 5.24 | -0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 32 | 20 | 6 | 18.3% | 11.6% | 3.6% | 5.29 | 5.37 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 38 | 0 | 65 | 279 | 47 | 28 | 4 | 16.7% | 10.1% | 1.5% | 3.05 | 3.80 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 117 | 0 | 200 | 858 | 145 | 86 | 12 | 16.7% | 10.1% | 1.5% | 3.05 | 3.80 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brayden Spears (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.72 | 19.6% | 10.6% | 2.8% | — | 4.65 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 179 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.42 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .279 | 5.32 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.90 | 4.42 | 239 | 93 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 4.41 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.65 | 255 | 92 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.08 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 2.4% | .271 | 3.84 | 21.6% | 13.4% | 73 | -0.24 | 3.84 | 206 | 92 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 91 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .311 | 5.44 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.41 | 152 | 91 |
| Jordan Milbrath R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.05 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 2.4% | .272 | 3.60 | 19.6% | 9.7% | 129 | -0.45 | 3.20 | 386 | 90 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 159 | 90 |
| David Goforth R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.06 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.52 | 4.06 | 256 | 90 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 2.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 135 | 90 |
| Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 146 | 89 |
| Dylan Burns R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.07 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.87 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.07 | 120 | 89 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 3.0% | .331 | 4.32 | 18.9% | 9.8% | 122 | +0.00 | 3.48 | 290 | 88 |
| Sean Harney R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.55 | 18.2% | 9.8% | 1.4% | .285 | 4.73 | 16.5% | 5.1% | 59 | +1.18 | 3.55 | 123 | 88 |
| Cody Tucker R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.99 | 22.0% | 12.0% | 4.1% | .272 | 5.30 | 15.8% | -1.9% | 40 | +0.31 | 4.99 | 105 | 88 |
| Grant Hartwig R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.84 | 21.2% | 10.8% | 2.1% | .330 | 3.91 | 21.7% | 11.3% | 61 | +0.07 | 2.52 | 179 | 87 |
| Jason Ruffcorn R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 17.8% | 10.7% | 2.0% | .315 | 4.08 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 107 | +0.02 | 4.04 | 214 | 87 |
| Scott Oberg R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.16 | 17.0% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .273 | 2.95 | 22.8% | 15.6% | 188 | -2.21 | 2.59 | 302 | 87 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.76 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.1% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 106 | 87 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 87 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.84 | 17.4% | 11.5% | 3.2% | .321 | 2.58 | 27.5% | 18.5% | 46 | -2.26 | 2.58 | 199 | 87 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.