Brayden Spears — OGILVIE

Brayden Spears P South Bend Cubs

Age 25 RHP 6'6" / 235 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION66 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.22

FIP5.22

K%15.0%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%3.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	24	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	36	0	60	259	55	23	3	0%	1.7	15.7%	10.5%	5.2%	1.6%	3.13	3.99	—
2025	24	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	36	0	60	259	55	23	3	0%	1.7	15.7%	10.5%	5.2%	1.6%	3.13	3.99	—
2025	24	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	36	0	60	259	55	23	3	0%	1.7	21.2%	8.9%	12.4%	1.2%	3.13	3.07	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	23	2	66	282	71	28	7	9%	2.9	19.4%	11.4%	8.0%	3.1%	4.34	4.61	—
YTD	25	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	23	2	66	282	71	28	7	9%	2.9	19.4%	11.4%	8.0%	3.1%	4.34	4.61	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	CHC	23	2	66	282	71	28	7	9%	2.9	25.2%	9.9%	15.2%	2.5%	4.34	3.59	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	CHC	6	0	6	25	4	3	1	0%	1.0	15.0%	11.5%	3.5%	2.8%	5.22	5.22	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	72	307	75	31	8	—	—	24.4%	10.1%	14.3%	2.5%	4.41	4.66	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CHC	67	0	70	296	49	33	8	0%	1.0	16.4%	11.2%	5.2%	2.8%	5.09	5.07	-0.4
2028	27	MLB MLE	CHC	66	0	69	291	49	32	8	0%	1.0	16.9%	11.1%	5.8%	2.9%	5.04	5.05	-0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	CHC	64	0	67	282	48	32	8	0%	1.0	17.1%	11.2%	6.0%	3.0%	5.06	5.10	-0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	CHC	61	0	64	270	46	31	9	0%	1.0	17.1%	11.3%	5.7%	3.2%	5.14	5.21	-0.5
2027	26	MLB CTX	CHC	29	0	30	127	21	14	4	0%	1.0	16.4%	11.2%	5.2%	2.8%	5.09	5.07	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	CHC	41	0	43	182	31	20	5	0%	1.0	16.9%	11.1%	5.8%	2.9%	5.04	5.05	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	CHC	48	0	50	211	36	24	6	0%	1.0	17.1%	11.2%	6.0%	3.0%	5.06	5.10	-0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	CHC	50	0	52	220	37	25	7	0%	1.0	17.1%	11.3%	5.7%	3.2%	5.14	5.21	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		168	0	176	743	126	83	22	0%	1.0	16.9%	11.2%	5.7%	3.0%	5.08	4.74	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	143	94	25	0%	1.1	16.9%	11.2%	5.7%	3.0%	5.08	4.74	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		59	2	127	541	95	59	13	3%	2.1	17.6%	11.0%	6.7%	2.4%	3.77	4.32	-1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		93	3	200	854	151	94	20	3%	2.1	17.6%	11.0%	6.7%	2.4%	3.77	4.32	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brayden Spears (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	15.0%	11.5%	2.8%	—	5.07	16.8%	5.7%	206	-0.15	—	—	—
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	91
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	88
Aaron Northcraft R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	13.6%	10.2%	2.1%	.286	4.19	16.1%	7.8%	91	-0.18	3.32	252	87
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	25	SU	4.59	15.1%	10.4%	2.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	218	86
Raul Fernandez R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	25	SU	4.03	14.2%	9.4%	1.7%	.285	4.79	16.1%	5.0%	103	+0.76	4.03	165	86
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	85
El'Hajj Muhammad R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	25	SU	4.58	13.6%	10.0%	2.5%	.285	5.01	7.1%	-2.5%	11	+0.43	4.58	113	84
Jarod Wright R 2022 · 5.73 FIP	25	SU	5.73	12.7%	13.2%	3.7%	.282	4.46	13.2%	3.8%	53	-1.27	4.46	170	84
Tyler Wehrle R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	23	SU	4.06	15.8%	10.5%	1.8%	.300	5.42	15.1%	3.4%	60	+1.36	4.06	141	84
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	84
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	84
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	83
Pedro Echemendia R 2016 · 4.79 FIP	25	SU	4.79	15.0%	8.0%	3.5%	.286	4.31	11.0%	5.9%	72	-0.48	4.31	141	83
Justin Camp R 2018 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	13.2%	11.9%	1.9%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	140	83
Zach Nuding R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	12.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.236	5.03	12.6%	3.3%	106	+0.27	4.76	146	83
Dylan Cumming R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SW	4.11	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	4.31	18.4%	9.4%	314	+0.20	3.75	406	82
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.53	13.6%	5.9%	162	+0.30	3.85	291	82
Matthew Gorst R 2019 · 4.66 FIP	24	SU	4.66	16.2%	11.3%	2.7%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	199	82
Jacinto Arredondo R 2022 · 4.89 FIP	24	SU	4.89	15.7%	10.7%	3.2%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	4.89	101	82
Dillon McNamara R 2017 · 5.01 FIP	25	SW	5.01	13.3%	11.1%	3.0%	.229	3.00	21.2%	12.3%	69	-2.01	1.73	244	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	16.5%	11.3%	1.14	5.11
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58