Brayden Spears
P
South Bend Cubs
Age 25
RHP
6'6" / 235 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION44 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136127vR 118
ERA5.21
FIP5.21
K%15.0%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%3.6%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 114 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 36 | 0 | 60 | 259 | 55 | 23 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 15.7% | 10.5% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 3.13 | 4.07 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 36 | 0 | 60 | 259 | 55 | 23 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 21.2% | 8.9% | 12.4% | 1.2% | 3.13 | 3.07 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 16 | 0 | 44 | 190 | 49 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 2.8 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 4.47 | 4.25 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CHC | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 44 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.0% | 11.4% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 5.21 | 5.21 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15.0% | 11.4% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 5.21 | 5.21 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 114 | 486 | 93 | 52 | 12 | — | — | 19.2% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 4.92 | 4.84 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 15.0% | 11.4% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 5.21 | 4.83 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 49 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 11.1% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 5.09 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 49 | 32 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.9% | 11.0% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 5.04 | 5.05 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 21 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 11.1% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 5.09 | 5.07 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 31 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.9% | 11.0% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 5.04 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 70 | 0 | 74 | 312 | 52 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.7% | 11.1% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 5.06 | 4.68 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 141 | 92 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.7% | 11.1% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 5.06 | 4.68 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 52 | 0 | 105 | 449 | 78 | 48 | 10 | 0% | 2.0 | 17.5% | 10.7% | 6.8% | 2.1% | 3.70 | 4.15 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 99 | 0 | 200 | 858 | 150 | 91 | 18 | 0% | 2.0 | 17.5% | 10.7% | 6.8% | 2.1% | 3.70 | 4.15 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brayden Spears (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.21 | 15.0% | 11.4% | 2.8% | — | 5.06 | 16.7% | 5.6% | 139 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| Juan Paniagua R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .262 | 4.62 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.13 | 4.51 | 151 | 93 |
| Conor Steinbaugh R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.77 | 16.0% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .281 | 6.87 | 14.3% | 0.8% | 39 | +2.10 | 4.77 | 107 | 89 |
| Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.49 | 15.1% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 218 | 88 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.04 | 16.0% | 10.9% | 1.7% | .293 | 3.40 | 12.8% | 1.8% | 17 | -0.64 | 3.40 | 134 | 86 |
| Justin Camp R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.00 | 13.2% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.59 | 140 | 85 |
| Stephen Johnson R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.44 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 141 | 85 |
| El'Hajj Muhammad R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.71 | 13.6% | 10.0% | 2.7% | .285 | 5.19 | 7.1% | -2.5% | 11 | +0.48 | 4.65 | 113 | 85 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.50 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .286 | 4.16 | 16.1% | 7.8% | 91 | -0.34 | 3.28 | 252 | 85 |
| Confesor Lara R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.32 | 16.4% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 111 | 85 |
| Reece Karalus R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.81 | 15.4% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.74 | 149 | 85 |
| Jake Christianson R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.08 | 13.5% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 188 | 85 |
| Tyler Burch R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.70 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 119 | 85 |
| Pedro Echemendia R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.76 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .286 | 4.02 | 11.0% | 5.9% | 72 | -0.74 | 4.02 | 141 | 84 |
| Ian Villers R 2025 · 4.12 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.12 | 15.6% | 10.4% | 1.9% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 107 | 83 |
| Scott Burke R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.01 | 14.9% | 8.2% | 3.9% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.84 | 119 | 83 |
| Chase Plymell R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.21 | 19.2% | 13.0% | 2.0% | .330 | 4.58 | 14.2% | 5.4% | 162 | +0.37 | 3.79 | 291 | 83 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.03 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .275 | 8.37 | 16.9% | -3.1% | 25 | +4.34 | 4.03 | 161 | 83 |
| Jacinto Arredondo R 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.89 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 3.2% | .375 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.89 | 101 | 83 |
| Ryan Moseley R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.16 | 16.9% | 11.9% | 1.8% | .282 | 5.24 | 14.1% | 1.1% | 48 | +1.08 | 4.09 | 264 | 83 |
| Jarod Wright R 2026 · 5.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.87 | 12.7% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .282 | 4.28 | 13.2% | 3.8% | 53 | -1.59 | 4.28 | 170 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 70 | 16.1% | 11.2% | 1.11 | 5.11 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |