Miguel Pantoja — OGILVIE

Miguel Pantoja P FCL Blue Jays

Age 18 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.1 · 2033

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%20.3%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%6.8%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$22M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.6M
2035	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	10	10	33	142	31	17	2	100%	3.3	14.8%	15.0%	-0.1%	2.1%	5.79	4.87	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	10	10	33	142	31	17	2	100%	3.3	14.8%	15.0%	-0.1%	2.1%	5.79	4.87	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays Red	10	10	33	142	31	17	2	100%	3.3	21.8%	12.0%	9.9%	1.4%	5.79	3.56	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	15	10	47	211	48	36	8	67%	3.2	17.2%	21.8%	-4.6%	5.1%	4.75	7.19	—
YTD	18	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	15	10	47	211	48	36	8	67%	3.2	17.2%	21.8%	-4.6%	5.1%	4.75	7.19	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	18	ROK RAW	TOR	12	7	37	166	42	29	6	58%	3.1	25.3%	17.5%	7.8%	3.6%	4.62	5.16	—
2026	18	A RAW	TOR	3	3	10	45	6	7	2	100%	3.4	13.3%	15.6%	-2.2%	4.4%	5.23	6.38	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	49	206	43	25	6	100%	4.4	21.1%	12.1%	9.0%	2.9%	4.90	4.82	+0.0
2028	20	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	51	216	47	24	6	100%	4.6	21.6%	11.0%	10.6%	2.9%	4.72	4.62	+0.2
2029	21	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	54	227	50	23	6	100%	4.9	22.1%	10.3%	11.8%	2.8%	4.55	4.45	+0.3
2030	22	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	56	238	55	23	7	100%	5.1	23.1%	9.6%	13.5%	2.7%	4.37	4.25	+0.4
2031	23	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	58	247	59	22	7	100%	5.3	23.8%	9.1%	14.7%	2.7%	4.21	4.10	+0.6
2032	24	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	60	253	62	22	7	100%	5.5	24.3%	8.7%	15.6%	2.7%	4.08	4.00	+0.6
2033	25	MLB MLE	TOR	10	10	61	257	63	22	7	100%	6.1	24.7%	8.6%	16.2%	2.7%	3.99	3.94	+0.7
2034	26	MLB MLE	TOR	10	10	61	257	64	22	7	100%	6.1	24.9%	8.5%	16.4%	2.7%	3.94	3.91	+0.7
2035	27	MLB MLE	TOR	10	10	60	253	63	22	7	100%	6.0	24.9%	8.6%	16.3%	2.7%	3.95	3.95	+0.7
2027	19	MLB CTX	TOR	6	6	24	101	21	12	3	100%	4.0	21.1%	12.1%	9.0%	2.9%	4.90	4.82	+0.0
2028	20	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	37	156	34	17	4	100%	4.6	21.6%	11.0%	10.6%	2.9%	4.72	4.62	+0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	TOR	9	9	45	190	42	20	5	100%	5.0	22.1%	10.3%	11.8%	2.8%	4.55	4.45	+0.2
2030	22	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	51	215	50	21	6	100%	5.1	23.1%	9.6%	13.5%	2.7%	4.37	4.25	+0.4
2031	23	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	54	228	54	21	6	100%	5.4	23.8%	9.1%	14.7%	2.7%	4.21	4.10	+0.5
2032	24	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	56	236	58	21	6	100%	5.6	24.3%	8.7%	15.6%	2.7%	4.08	4.00	+0.6
2033	25	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	58	245	61	21	7	100%	5.8	24.7%	8.6%	16.2%	2.7%	3.99	3.94	+0.7
2034	26	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	58	245	61	21	7	100%	5.8	24.9%	8.5%	16.4%	2.7%	3.94	3.91	+0.7
2035	27	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	57	241	60	21	7	100%	5.7	24.9%	8.6%	16.3%	2.7%	3.95	3.95	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		82	82	440	1857	440	174	51	100%	5.4	23.7%	9.3%	14.3%	2.7%	4.23	3.78	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	844	200	79	23	100%	5.4	23.7%	9.3%	14.3%	2.7%	4.23	3.78	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		25	20	80	353	57	67	14	80%	3.2	16.3%	19.1%	-2.8%	3.9%	5.17	6.26	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	50	200	882	143	168	34	80%	3.2	16.3%	19.1%	-2.8%	3.9%	5.17	6.26	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Miguel Pantoja (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	20.3%	13.5%	3.0%	—	4.62	21.6%	10.5%	154	-0.48	—	—	—
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	84
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	82
Anderson Cardenas R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	17	SP	4.22	17.3%	12.6%	1.8%	.319	4.04	21.2%	8.3%	92	-0.18	3.52	129	82
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	81
Claudio Galva R 2022 · 3.97 FIP	18	SP	3.97	17.4%	12.6%	1.4%	.255	4.17	15.0%	8.1%	34	+0.20	2.86	113	80
Regi Grace R 2019 · 3.92 FIP	19	SP	3.92	16.3%	11.2%	1.4%	.333	4.23	20.5%	8.8%	86	+0.31	3.44	224	80
Edgar Leon R 2023 · 4.36 FIP	18	SP	4.36	18.2%	15.4%	1.5%	.268	4.93	17.6%	-3.0%	83	+0.57	4.13	144	80
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	80
Jose Cedeno R 2019 · 4.66 FIP	17	SP-	4.66	15.3%	9.7%	3.0%	.271	3.39	21.5%	12.9%	88	-1.27	2.80	123	79
Cesar Espinal R 2023 · 4.28 FIP	17	SP	4.28	17.0%	10.1%	2.4%	.303	6.16	16.1%	-4.2%	56	+1.88	4.28	109	79
Aneury Lora R 2022 · 3.95 FIP	18	SP	3.95	16.6%	11.1%	1.5%	.339	3.72	15.1%	5.9%	114	-0.23	3.69	192	79
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	79
Manuel Perez R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	17	SP-	4.04	17.5%	11.8%	1.7%	.366	5.09	13.7%	-1.1%	117	+1.05	3.40	188	79
Gary Gill Hill R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	18	SP	4.91	14.1%	12.2%	2.6%	.356	4.59	16.1%	9.8%	380	-0.32	4.32	417	79
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	79
Nelfy Ynfante R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	18	SP	4.22	18.1%	10.7%	2.4%	.309	4.71	16.8%	5.5%	225	+0.49	3.70	297	79
Eric Prado R 2023 · 4.15 FIP	17	SP-	4.15	16.6%	11.5%	1.8%	.222	7.05	14.8%	-0.5%	90	+2.90	4.15	131	79
Reynardo Cruz R 2021 · 3.96 FIP	19	SP-	3.96	22.5%	14.8%	1.6%	.264	5.44	16.1%	-2.1%	40	+1.48	3.96	216	78
Lisandro Almonte R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	19	SP-	4.89	16.3%	16.4%	2.0%	.298	4.93	19.6%	4.9%	78	+0.04	3.81	128	78
Nicholas Economos R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	20	SP-	4.95	15.3%	10.7%	3.3%	.233	5.28	10.4%	0.6%	57	+0.33	4.40	223	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	53	23.4%	9.7%	1.06	4.31
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
JT Chargois ('24)	1.2	33	23.3%	9.3%	0.97	3.35