Michel Cervantes

P DSL Padres Gold

Age 19 RHP ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	18	ROKDSL Padres Go…	10	10	32	6.12	4.92	23.1%	22.4%	—	K 15.7% · BB 28.0% · FIP 6.31
2027PROJ	19	MLB—	3	3	19	5.91	5.91	20.4%	20.0%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	20	MLB—	3	3	15	5.55	5.41	21.2%	16.8%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsMarlon Nieves (age 19) · Marlon De La Cruz (age 18) · Tyrone Yulie (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.91

FIP5.91

K%20.4%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%0.4%

Proj IP19

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	10	10	32	156	36	35	2	100%	3.2	15.7%	28.0%	-12.4%	1.8%	6.12	6.31	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	10	10	32	156	36	35	2	100%	3.2	15.7%	28.0%	-12.4%	1.8%	6.12	6.31	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	10	10	32	156	36	35	2	100%	3.2	23.1%	22.4%	0.6%	1.3%	6.12	4.92	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	—	3	3	19	80	16	16	2	100%	6.3	20.4%	20.0%	0.4%	2.9%	5.91	5.91	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	—	6	6	31	129	27	22	4	100%	5.1	21.2%	16.8%	4.3%	2.9%	5.55	5.41	-0.2
2028	20	MLB CTX	—	3	3	15	63	13	11	2	100%	5.0	21.2%	16.8%	4.3%	2.9%	5.55	5.41	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	15	64	13	11	2	100%	5.0	21.2%	16.8%	4.3%	2.9%	5.55	5.03	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	43	200	844	173	146	27	100%	4.6	21.2%	16.8%	4.3%	2.9%	5.55	5.03	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		10	10	32	156	24	44	3	100%	3.2	15.7%	28.0%	-12.4%	1.8%	6.12	6.31	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	62	200	965	151	271	17	100%	3.2	15.7%	28.0%	-12.4%	1.8%	6.12	6.31	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michel Cervantes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.91	20.4%	20.0%	2.9%	—	5.41	21.2%	4.3%	31	-0.50	—	—	—
Marlon Nieves R 2024 · 5.63 FIP	19	SP	5.63	17.9%	20.0%	2.8%	.300	4.19	18.6%	1.2%	134	-1.44	3.82	187	86
Marlon De La Cruz R 2024 · 5.31 FIP	18	SP	5.31	17.1%	20.9%	1.8%	.306	5.34	13.8%	-6.9%	101	+0.03	4.35	140	84
Tyrone Yulie R 2021 · 6.80 FIP	19	SP	6.80	19.7%	22.1%	4.7%	.324	5.30	18.1%	2.7%	166	-1.50	4.87	265	83
Jeferson Figueroa R 2021 · 5.24 FIP	20	SP	5.24	17.1%	15.6%	2.9%	.232	5.02	20.6%	5.4%	188	-0.22	4.77	249	83
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.81	21.3%	8.0%	253	-0.15	3.82	323	82
Trevor Bauer R 2012 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP	4.79	22.1%	16.9%	2.6%	.267	4.08	21.8%	11.8%	346	-0.71	2.16	1,298	81
Chen-Wei Lin R 2023 · 6.48 FIP	21	SP	6.48	21.3%	22.0%	4.4%	.379	3.81	20.5%	8.4%	257	-2.67	3.05	269	81
Yerlin Rodriguez R 2021 · 5.73 FIP	19	SP-	5.73	20.0%	23.6%	2.4%	.378	4.63	19.9%	0.7%	112	-1.10	3.84	244	81
Luis Medina R 2018 · 6.84 FIP	19	SP	6.84	17.4%	31.2%	2.3%	.330	4.96	21.8%	5.2%	199	-1.88	3.30	606	80
Shane Panzini R 2022 · 5.64 FIP	20	SP	5.64	17.3%	15.8%	3.6%	.335	4.96	18.5%	5.6%	251	-0.68	4.59	338	80
Kenyi Perez R 2021 · 6.09 FIP	19	SP	6.09	15.6%	27.4%	1.5%	.349	6.38	21.0%	-13.4%	77	+0.29	4.30	194	79
Maximo Gonzalez R 2024 · 5.75 FIP	17	SP	5.75	15.4%	16.1%	3.5%	.233	6.06	12.7%	1.8%	73	+0.31	3.51	120	79
Luis Ghisays R 2024 · 5.74 FIP	18	SP	5.74	13.8%	15.0%	3.5%	.291	5.08	16.2%	5.4%	75	-0.66	4.58	110	79
Anderson Munoz R 2018 · 5.90 FIP	19	SP-	5.90	14.4%	18.2%	3.1%	.306	4.35	25.7%	13.3%	73	-1.55	4.15	109	79
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	79
Ryan Harbin R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	19	SP	4.79	15.8%	15.4%	2.0%	.391	4.57	21.8%	6.2%	107	-0.22	3.82	185	79
Lisandro Almonte R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	19	SP-	4.89	16.3%	16.4%	2.0%	.298	4.93	19.6%	4.9%	78	+0.04	3.81	128	79
Mitch Keller R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	19	SP	4.95	16.8%	19.8%	1.4%	.407	3.36	19.4%	11.9%	375	-1.59	2.52	1,520	78
Dennis Santana R 2015 · 5.67 FIP	19	SP	5.67	15.3%	20.0%	2.4%	.319	3.48	20.3%	8.8%	268	-2.19	2.82	782	78
Jose Pena Jr. R 2022 · 5.48 FIP	19	SP-	5.48	15.0%	18.7%	2.3%	.269	4.62	19.2%	3.1%	124	-0.86	3.48	176	78