Dennis Santana — OGILVIE

Dennis Santana P Pittsburgh Pirates

+0.9 WAR

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 202 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 0.9 · 2026

ERA3.56

FIP3.73

xFIP4.64

SIERA4.33

K%23.0%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%15.6%

IP63

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.9peak

2026

K†6060

FB+2.3 (41%)

CH+2.1 (17%)

CT (5%)

SI (10%)

SL-0.5 (37%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	19	ROK	AZL Dodgers	13	11	48	231	52	37	4	15.3%	20.0%	2.4%	6.42	5.67	-0.4
2016	20	A	Great Lakes Loons	25	14	111	470	124	56	2	19.5%	14.1%	0.6%	3.07	3.55	+2.2
2017	21	AA	Tulsa Drillers	24	21	118	526	129	45	7	19.2%	9.6%	1.5%	4.11	3.52	+2.4
2018	22	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	11	10	53	225	69	17	3	25.7%	9.6%	2.0%	3.21	3.25	+1.0
2019	23	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	30	17	98	471	111	57	17	20.8%	12.5%	3.8%	6.96	4.99	+0.3
2020	24	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	12	0	17	73	18	7	4	24.7%	9.6%	5.1%	5.29	5.05	-0.0
2021	25	MLB	Texas Rangers	62	3	64	278	61	35	6	19.4%	12.7%	1.6%	4.50	3.92	+0.8
2022	26	MLB	Texas Rangers	65	1	62	269	58	28	2	21.2%	10.6%	0.8%	4.91	3.08	+1.3
2023	27	MLB	New York Mets	38	2	44	202	53	23	8	23.8%	11.8%	4.2%	5.15	4.91	+0.0
2024	28	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	64	0	73	297	71	24	4	24.0%	7.3%	1.4%	3.95	2.76	+1.9
2025	29	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	70	0	70	270	60	17	5	22.2%	6.3%	1.9%	2.18	3.04	+1.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	10	0	10	37	6	4	0	—	—	—	0.90	—	—
ROS	30	MLB	LAD	53	—	53	223	54	17	5	24.0%	7.4%	2.4%	3.49	3.71	+0.7
2026 Total	30	MLB	LAD	—	—	63	260	60	21	5	22.9%	7.9%	2.1%	3.08	3.12	+1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	31	MLB	LAD	11	11	61	256	57	20	6	22.2%	7.9%	2.3%	3.74	3.87	+0.7
2028	32	MLB	LAD	58	—	58	246	53	20	6	21.6%	8.1%	2.4%	3.89	3.99	+0.6
2029	33	MLB	LAD	56	—	56	235	49	19	6	20.9%	8.2%	2.5%	4.02	4.11	+0.5
2030	34	MLB	LAD	53	—	53	223	45	19	6	20.2%	8.4%	2.6%	4.16	4.25	+0.4
2031	35	MLB	LAD	50	—	50	210	41	18	6	19.5%	8.7%	2.7%	4.31	4.40	+0.3
2032	36	MLB	LAD	47	—	47	197	37	18	6	18.7%	8.9%	2.8%	4.47	4.57	+0.2
2033	37	MLB	LAD	43	—	43	182	33	17	5	17.9%	9.2%	2.9%	4.63	4.74	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			424	79	769	3349	698	381	66	20.8%	11.4%	2.0%	4.35	3.87	+12.5
/ 200 IP	—			110	21	200	871	181	99	17	20.8%	11.4%	2.0%	4.35	3.87	+3.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dennis Santana (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.71	24.0%	7.4%	2.4%	—	3.99	21.6%	13.5%	174	+0.28	—	—	—
Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP	31	SW	3.46	20.7%	9.1%	1.7%	.241	5.68	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.22	3.46	160	80
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2027 · 3.11 FIP	31	SW	3.11	22.5%	9.7%	1.2%	.298	5.81	13.8%	4.1%	86	+2.70	3.11	148	80
Tony Barnette R 2028 · 3.05 FIP	32	SW	3.05	19.9%	6.1%	1.6%	.281	3.28	23.4%	17.0%	84	+0.23	2.56	144	79
Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.33 FIP	32	SW	3.33	23.7%	7.2%	2.4%	.342	4.98	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.65	3.33	122	78
Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP	31	SW	3.73	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	.325	3.80	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.07	3.65	137	78
Esmil Rogers R 2025 · 3.44 FIP	29	SW	3.44	18.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.348	2.85	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.59	2.85	199	78
Hector Ambriz R 2028 · 3.55 FIP	32	SW	3.55	16.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.273	6.40	10.4%	2.9%	91	+2.85	3.55	155	78
Gregory Infante R 2026 · 2.97 FIP	30	SW	2.97	22.8%	8.2%	1.4%	.251	4.16	22.0%	17.4%	50	+1.19	2.97	230	78
Jim Johnson R 2028 · 3.34 FIP	32	SW	3.34	17.2%	6.2%	1.7%	.330	3.67	22.0%	14.1%	185	+0.33	2.57	251	78
Luis García R 2026 · 2.73 FIP	30	SW	2.73	20.3%	7.1%	0.8%	.275	4.41	22.4%	12.3%	108	+1.68	2.26	602	77
Edwin Jackson R 2027 · 3.75 FIP	31	SW	3.75	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.96	3.75	521	77
Joakim Soria R 2027 · 3.48 FIP	31	SW	3.48	23.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.57	2.00	380	76
Tim Dillard R 2028 · 3.60 FIP	32	SW	3.60	15.9%	7.7%	1.6%	.330	3.87	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	3.12	352	76
Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.81 FIP	29	SW	3.81	19.5%	7.3%	2.6%	.289	4.32	19.4%	8.4%	10	+0.51	2.26	172	76
Carlos Torres R 2028 · 3.19 FIP	32	SW	3.19	19.8%	4.9%	2.1%	.315	3.68	20.8%	12.4%	206	+0.49	2.89	326	76
Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.53 FIP	32	SW	4.53	15.9%	8.0%	3.2%	.268	4.27	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.26	3.50	292	76
Sam Dyson R 2026 · 3.34 FIP	30	SW	3.34	20.5%	7.0%	2.0%	.264	3.27	22.1%	16.9%	62	-0.07	2.67	333	76
Yoanner Negrin R 2027 · 3.80 FIP	31	SW	3.80	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.51	3.15	485	76
Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	30	SW	3.72	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.88	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	75
Chris Martin R 2025 · 3.18 FIP	29	SU	3.18	18.1%	7.0%	1.3%	.319	2.97	20.9%	19.2%	42	-0.21	1.72	402	75

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2019

Service 5.733 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-3	$4M	+0.9	$4M	+$0.1M
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$0.1M