Dennis Santana

P Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 202 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MIX2 levels	64	73	3.95	2.85	23.9%	8.1%	1.5	K 24.0% · BB 7.3% · FIP 2.82
2025	29	MLBPIT	70	70	2.18	3.04	22.2%	6.3%	1.3
2026	30	MIX2 levels	59	58	5.86	4.95	20.1%	8.9%	-0.3	K 19.6% · BB 9.2% · FIP 4.93
2027PROJ	31	MLBARI	49	51	4.23	4.45	21.6%	8.3%	0.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	32	MLBARI	31	33	4.41	4.60	20.8%	8.7%	-0.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBARI	20	21	4.68	4.87	20.0%	9.2%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.5 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo44

xwOBA vs34

K%32

Form4.20 ERA (proj 4.23) · K 18.8% (proj 21.6%) · BB 6.2% (proj 8.3%) · last 90d · 15 IP through Oct 27

CompsChris Hatcher (age 31) · Jeff Fulchino (age 31) · Manny Acosta (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.23

FIP4.45

K%21.6%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%13.3%

Proj IP51

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4494.1

Whiff%

p5325.8%

p3219.6%

xwOBA vs

p340.331

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	AZL Dodgers	13	11	48	231	52	37	4	85%	3.7	15.3%	20.0%	-4.7%	2.4%	6.42	5.67	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	AZL Dodgers	13	11	48	231	52	37	4	85%	3.7	22.5%	16.0%	6.5%	1.7%	6.42	4.34	—
2016	20	A MLE	Great Lakes Loons	25	14	111	470	124	56	2	56%	4.5	19.5%	14.1%	5.5%	0.6%	3.07	3.55	—
2016	20	A RAW	Great Lakes Loons	25	14	111	470	124	56	2	56%	4.5	26.4%	11.9%	14.5%	0.4%	3.07	2.61	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	21	118	526	129	45	7	88%	4.9	19.2%	9.6%	9.5%	1.4%	4.11	3.49	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	21	118	526	129	45	7	88%	4.9	24.5%	8.6%	16.0%	1.3%	4.11	2.83	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	10	53	225	69	17	3	91%	4.8	25.7%	9.6%	16.1%	1.9%	3.21	3.22	+1.4
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	10	53	225	69	17	3	91%	4.8	30.7%	7.6%	23.1%	1.3%	3.21	2.20	+2.2
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	17	98	471	111	57	17	57%	3.3	20.8%	12.5%	8.3%	3.7%	6.96	4.96	+0.5
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	17	98	471	111	57	17	57%	3.3	23.6%	12.1%	11.5%	3.6%	6.96	4.83	+0.7
2020	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	12	0	17	73	18	7	4	0%	1.4	24.7%	9.6%	15.1%	5.3%	5.29	5.12	-0.1
2020	24	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	12	0	17	73	18	7	4	0%	1.4	24.7%	9.6%	15.1%	5.5%	5.29	5.28	-0.1
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	3	64	278	61	35	6	5%	1.0	19.4%	12.7%	6.8%	1.6%	4.50	3.93	+0.5
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	62	3	64	278	61	35	6	5%	1.0	21.9%	12.6%	9.4%	2.2%	4.50	4.05	+0.4
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	1	62	269	58	28	2	2%	1.0	21.2%	10.6%	10.6%	0.7%	4.91	3.05	+1.1
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	1	62	269	58	28	2	2%	1.0	21.6%	10.4%	11.2%	0.7%	4.91	3.00	+1.2
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	2	44	202	53	23	8	5%	1.1	23.4%	10.6%	12.8%	4.3%	5.15	4.80	-0.1
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	2	44	202	53	23	8	5%	1.1	26.2%	11.4%	14.9%	4.0%	5.15	4.63	-0.0
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	64	0	73	297	71	24	4	0%	1.1	24.0%	7.3%	16.7%	1.5%	3.95	2.82	+1.5
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	64	0	73	297	71	24	4	0%	1.1	24.0%	7.3%	16.7%	1.5%	3.95	2.82	+1.5
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	64	0	73	297	71	24	4	0%	1.1	23.9%	8.1%	15.8%	1.3%	3.95	2.85	+1.5
2025	29	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	70	0	70	270	60	17	5	0%	1.0	22.2%	6.3%	15.9%	2.0%	2.18	3.12	+1.2
2025	29	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	70	0	70	270	60	17	5	0%	1.0	22.2%	6.3%	15.9%	2.0%	2.18	3.12	+1.2
2025	29	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	70	0	70	270	60	17	5	0%	1.0	22.2%	6.3%	15.9%	1.9%	2.18	3.04	+1.3
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	58	259	52	23	11	0%	1.0	19.6%	9.2%	10.4%	4.2%	5.86	4.93	-0.3
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	58	259	52	23	11	0%	1.0	19.6%	9.2%	10.4%	4.2%	5.86	4.93	-0.3
2026	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	0	58	259	52	23	11	0%	1.0	20.1%	8.9%	11.2%	4.2%	5.86	4.95	-0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			332	1	348	1468	318	137	32	0%	1.0	21.7%	9.3%	12.3%	2.2%	4.37	3.65	+3.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	ARI	49	0	51	215	47	18	7	0%	1.0	21.6%	8.3%	13.3%	3.2%	4.23	4.45	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	ARI	33	0	34	145	30	13	5	0%	1.0	20.8%	8.7%	12.1%	3.4%	4.51	4.70	-0.1
2029	33	MLB MLE	ARI	21	0	22	95	19	9	4	0%	1.1	20.0%	9.2%	10.8%	3.7%	4.79	4.98	-0.1
2030	34	MLB MLE	ARI	13	0	14	59	11	6	2	0%	1.1	19.1%	9.7%	9.4%	4.0%	5.09	5.28	-0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	ARI	31	0	33	139	29	12	4	0%	1.1	20.8%	8.7%	12.1%	3.2%	4.41	4.60	-0.1
2029	33	MLB CTX	ARI	20	0	21	89	18	8	3	0%	1.1	20.0%	9.2%	10.8%	3.5%	4.68	4.87	-0.1
2030	34	MLB CTX	ARI	12	0	13	55	10	5	2	0%	1.1	19.1%	9.7%	9.4%	3.8%	4.97	5.16	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		395	1	415	1749	375	162	42	0%	1.1	21.4%	9.3%	12.1%	2.4%	4.40	3.77	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	843	181	78	20	0%	1.0	21.4%	9.3%	12.1%	2.4%	4.40	3.77	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		473	79	818	3571	742	398	77	17%	1.7	20.8%	11.1%	9.6%	2.2%	4.50	3.95	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		116	19	200	873	181	97	19	17%	1.7	20.8%	11.1%	9.6%	2.2%	4.50	3.95	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAASyracuse Mets · 33 IPFIP 4.32 → 4.72 (+0.40)K% 27.0% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.97%	—	×0.860	23.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.53%	—	×0.900	9.47%
HR / BF /BF	3.95%	÷1.003	×1.100	4.33%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 4.32 → 4.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAARound Rock Express · 9 IPFIP 4.23 → 5.08 (+0.84)K% 36.6% → 32.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.59%	—	×0.880	32.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.20%	—	×1.050	12.80%
HR / BF /BF	4.88%	÷0.958	×1.100	5.60%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 4.23 → 5.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 93 IPFIP 4.59 → 4.96 (+0.37)K% 23.6% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.65%	—	×0.880	20.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.94%	—	×1.050	12.53%
HR / BF /BF	3.60%	÷1.073	×1.100	3.69%

Result: FIP 4.59 → 4.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AATulsa Drillers · 39 IPFIP 2.55 → 3.22 (+0.67)K% 31.7% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.68%	—	×0.810	25.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.100	9.57%
HR / BF /BF	1.86%	÷1.147	×1.200	1.95%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 129).

Result: FIP 2.55 → 3.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 11 IPFIP 1.04 → 1.38 (+0.34)K% 31.1% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.11%	—	×0.880	27.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.44%	—	×1.050	4.67%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.020	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.04 → 1.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Rancho Cucamonga Quakes · 86 IPFIP 2.50 → 3.20 (+0.70)K% 24.7% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.73%	—	×0.770	19.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.91%	—	×1.150	6.80%
HR / BF /BF	1.34%	÷1.085	×1.250	1.55%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 2.50 → 3.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AATulsa Drillers · 33 IPFIP 3.68 → 4.20 (+0.52)K% 24.0% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.03%	—	×0.810	19.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.94%	—	×1.100	16.43%
HR / BF /BF	1.30%	÷1.295	×1.200	1.20%

Result: FIP 3.68 → 4.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AGreat Lakes Loons · 111 IPFIP 2.61 → 3.55 (+0.93)K% 26.4% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.38%	—	×0.740	19.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.91%	—	×1.180	14.06%
HR / BF /BF	0.43%	÷0.960	×1.300	0.58%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 2.61 → 3.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dennis Santana (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	4.90	20.2%	11.2%	71	+0.45	—	—	—
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.51	246	76
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	75
Manny Acosta R 2012 · 4.49 FIP	31	SU	4.49	21.3%	11.1%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	350	74
Mike DeJean R 2002 · 3.80 FIP	31	SU	3.80	19.9%	9.5%	2.1%	.265	3.66	19.6%	10.5%	206	-0.14	2.82	622	74
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	74
Matt Herges R 2001 · 3.62 FIP	31	SU	3.62	17.5%	7.8%	1.8%	.281	3.73	17.0%	10.3%	209	+0.11	2.90	691	73
Guillermo Mota R 2004 · 3.39 FIP	31	SU	3.39	21.6%	7.9%	2.0%	.249	4.11	19.3%	11.6%	182	+0.72	2.68	857	73
Carlos Torres R 2014 · 3.66 FIP	31	SU	3.66	23.7%	8.4%	2.7%	.295	3.72	20.2%	12.4%	213	+0.06	2.89	604	72
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	72
Brian Sanches R 2010 · 4.24 FIP	31	SU	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.217	4.35	19.6%	8.5%	62	+0.11	3.39	229	72
Brad Brach R 2017 · 3.36 FIP	31	SU	3.36	25.5%	9.1%	2.3%	.254	3.68	22.8%	11.1%	129	+0.32	2.69	570	72
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	335	71
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	71
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	71
Al Reyes R 2001 · 4.12 FIP	31	SU	4.12	19.2%	10.0%	2.5%	.305	3.40	21.8%	11.1%	34	-0.72	2.60	411	71
Alex Wilson R 2018 · 4.16 FIP	31	SU	4.16	17.6%	5.3%	3.4%	.232	5.06	19.4%	13.4%	62	+0.90	2.93	382	70
Geoff Geary R 2008 · 3.39 FIP	31	SU	3.39	17.2%	8.8%	1.1%	.220	5.49	12.4%	3.1%	20	+2.10	3.16	345	70
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	70
Sean Green R 2009 · 3.77 FIP	30	SU	3.77	17.1%	9.8%	1.6%	.261	3.18	12.5%	3.6%	12	-0.59	3.16	260	70
Spencer Bivens R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	18.0%	5.8%	3.2%	.265	3.88	18.2%	10.9%	157	-0.19	3.52	391	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	52	21.4%	9.4%	0.97	4.40
Aaron Fultz ('07)	2.4	60	19.2%	9.1%	0.94	4.26
Mark Lowe ('16)	1.9	64	20.9%	9.7%	1.10	4.22
John Grabow ('11)	2.4	60	19.0%	10.5%	1.04	4.31
Ken Dayley ('82-'93, 4 WAR*)	2.9	64	21.8%*	9.1%*	0.97*	4.10*
Dave Tomlin ('72-'86, -2 WAR*)	2.6	64	18.0%*	8.6%*	0.87*	4.57*
Bob Allen ('61-'67, -1 WAR*)	1.4	55	21.4%*	10.4%*	0.89*	4.79*