Luis Medina — OGILVIE

Luis Medina P Athletics

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION67 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10597vR 89

ERA4.03

FIP3.96

K%25.6%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%14.0%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†5060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.7

Whiff%

p9031.7%

p9029.5%

xwOBA vs

p590.303

SL+1.0 (17%)

CH+0.7 (15%)

SI (26%)

CU (13%)

FB (55%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	17	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees 1	3	3	5	19	4	4	0	100%	1.6	21.1%	21.1%	0.0%	0.0%	1.93	3.99	—
2016	17	ROK RAW	DSL Yankees 1	3	3	5	19	4	4	0	100%	1.6	21.1%	21.1%	0.0%	0.0%	1.93	3.96	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	Pulaski Yankees	10	9	39	172	39	24	1	90%	3.9	15.4%	17.4%	-2.0%	0.8%	5.35	4.45	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	Pulaski Yankees	10	9	39	172	39	24	1	90%	3.9	22.7%	14.0%	8.7%	0.6%	5.35	3.28	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	Pulaski Yankees	12	12	36	184	47	46	3	100%	3.0	17.4%	31.2%	-13.9%	2.3%	6.25	6.84	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	Pulaski Yankees	12	12	36	184	47	46	3	100%	3.0	25.5%	25.0%	0.5%	1.6%	6.25	5.41	—
2019	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	104	470	127	70	9	100%	4.7	19.9%	18.5%	1.4%	3.0%	5.47	5.40	—
2019	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	104	470	127	70	9	100%	4.7	27.0%	14.9%	12.1%	1.9%	5.47	3.80	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	106	451	133	60	11	95%	4.8	23.4%	14.8%	8.6%	2.9%	3.39	4.58	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	106	451	133	60	11	95%	4.8	29.5%	13.3%	16.2%	2.4%	3.39	3.64	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	24	24	93	421	107	62	7	100%	3.9	20.6%	16.2%	4.4%	2.5%	5.24	4.79	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	24	24	93	421	107	62	7	100%	3.9	25.4%	14.7%	10.7%	1.7%	5.24	3.78	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	22	126	574	129	71	15	76%	4.4	21.8%	12.1%	9.7%	2.9%	5.56	4.37	+0.8
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	22	126	574	129	71	15	76%	4.4	21.8%	12.1%	9.7%	2.9%	5.56	4.37	+0.8
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	22	126	574	129	71	15	76%	4.4	22.5%	12.4%	10.1%	2.6%	5.56	4.29	+0.9
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	11	48	226	42	22	5	100%	4.4	17.8%	10.6%	7.2%	2.4%	6.75	4.28	+0.4
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	11	48	226	42	22	5	100%	4.4	17.8%	10.6%	7.2%	2.4%	6.75	4.28	+0.4
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	11	48	226	42	22	5	100%	4.4	18.6%	9.7%	8.8%	2.2%	6.75	4.08	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			84	26	217	967	224	106	25	31%	2.6	23.2%	11.0%	12.2%	2.6%	4.73	4.00	+1.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Athletics	53	1	67	292	86	32	7	2%	1.3	29.5%	11.0%	18.5%	2.5%	3.34	3.35	+1.0
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Athletics	53	1	67	292	86	32	7	2%	1.3	29.5%	11.0%	18.5%	2.5%	3.34	3.35	+1.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	MLB RAW	OAK	53	1	67	292	86	32	7	2%	1.3	29.5%	11.0%	18.5%	2.4%	3.34	3.32	+1.0
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	OAK	53	1	67	292	86	32	7	2%	1.3	29.5%	11.0%	18.5%	2.4%	3.34	3.32	+1.0
ROS	27	MLB MLE	OAK	4	0	4	18	5	2	1	0%	1.0	25.6%	11.5%	14.0%	2.8%	4.03	3.96	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	OAK	4	0	4	17	4	2	0	0%	1.0	25.6%	11.5%	14.0%	2.8%	4.03	3.96	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	72	310	91	34	8	—	—	29.2%	11.0%	18.2%	2.4%	3.38	3.39	+1.1
FULL	27	MLB A+C	OAK	—	—	72	302	91	34	8	—	—	30.0%	11.3%	18.7%	2.5%	3.38	3.36	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	OAK	46	0	48	203	50	24	6	0%	1.0	24.6%	11.7%	12.9%	2.8%	4.42	4.43	+0.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	OAK	44	0	46	193	46	23	6	0%	1.0	24.0%	11.9%	12.1%	3.0%	4.52	4.59	-0.0
2029	30	MLB MLE	OAK	41	0	43	182	42	22	6	0%	1.1	23.3%	12.2%	11.1%	3.2%	4.69	4.80	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	OAK	44	0	46	194	48	23	5	0%	1.0	24.6%	11.7%	12.9%	2.8%	4.42	4.43	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	OAK	42	0	44	186	45	22	6	0%	1.0	24.0%	11.9%	12.1%	3.0%	4.52	4.59	-0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	OAK	39	0	41	173	40	21	5	0%	1.1	23.3%	12.2%	11.1%	3.2%	4.69	4.80	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		212	26	351	1534	360	173	42	12%	1.7	23.5%	11.3%	12.2%	2.7%	4.65	4.05	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		121	15	200	873	205	99	24	12%	1.7	23.5%	11.3%	12.2%	2.7%	4.65	4.05	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		186	125	624	2809	600	439	72	67%	3.4	21.4%	15.6%	5.7%	2.6%	4.98	4.69	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	40	200	901	192	141	23	67%	3.4	21.4%	15.6%	5.7%	2.6%	4.98	4.69	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Medina (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	20.0%	12.0%	2.9%	—	4.60	23.9%	12.0%	137	-0.30	—	—	—
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP-	4.93	19.3%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.96	3.02	341	67
J.P. France R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	27	SW	4.44	24.9%	10.9%	3.8%	.301	4.49	18.4%	8.8%	205	+0.05	4.04	577	66
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	65
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	65
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	64
Cody Sedlock R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	27	SW	4.21	20.1%	13.0%	2.1%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	378	63
Jordan Lyles R 2018 · 3.73 FIP	27	SW	3.73	22.6%	6.7%	3.1%	.284	4.78	20.2%	12.1%	379	+1.05	3.44	1,080	62
Chris Kachmar R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	20.5%	7.8%	4.5%	.319	4.67	18.2%	7.1%	248	-0.15	4.29	360	62
Dylan King R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	25	SW	3.78	26.7%	9.8%	3.1%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	121	62
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	62
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	62
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	62
Taylor Clarke R 2020 · 5.11 FIP	27	SW	5.11	21.9%	10.4%	4.6%	.233	3.93	22.9%	16.5%	151	-1.18	3.36	967	61
Cory Abbott R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	27	SW	4.92	23.0%	11.9%	4.1%	.300	5.11	21.3%	12.0%	151	+0.19	3.86	703	61
Drey Jameson R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	25	SW	4.25	19.2%	9.4%	2.9%	.307	4.99	19.5%	8.5%	61	+0.74	4.16	397	61
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	61
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	61
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	61
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	61
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	61

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	47	22.9%	11.9%	1.14	4.65
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58