Luis Medina

P Athletics

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	MIX2 levels	29	22	126	5.56	4.29	22.5%	12.4%	1.7	K 21.9% · BB 12.1% · FIP 4.36
2024	25	MIX3 levels	11	11	48	6.75	4.08	18.6%	9.7%	0.8	K 17.8% · BB 10.6% · FIP 4.28
2026	27	MLBOAK	60	1	73	3.08	3.28	29.3%	11.4%	1.1
2027PROJ	28	MLBOAK	10	10	59	4.18	4.18	27.3%	12.1%	0.8
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBOAK	7	7	42	4.27	4.34	26.7%	12.3%	0.5
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBOAK	5	5	31	4.43	4.54	26.0%	12.6%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%88

xwOBA vs59

Form1.85 ERA (proj 4.18) · K 34.7% (proj 27.3%) · BB 12.9% (proj 12.1%) ▲▲ last 90d · 24 IP through Oct 27

CompsJose Contreras (age 31) · Sam Lewis (age 27) · Fabio Castillo (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA4.18

FIP4.18

K%27.3%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%15.2%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.7

Whiff%

p9032.4%

p8829.3%

xwOBA vs

p590.303

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	17	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees 1	3	3	5	19	4	4	0	100%	1.6	21.1%	21.1%	0.0%	0.0%	1.93	3.99	—
2016	17	ROK RAW	DSL Yankees 1	3	3	5	19	4	4	0	100%	1.6	21.1%	21.1%	0.0%	0.0%	1.93	3.96	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	Pulaski Yankees	10	9	39	172	39	24	1	90%	3.9	15.4%	17.4%	-2.0%	0.8%	5.35	4.45	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	Pulaski Yankees	10	9	39	172	39	24	1	90%	3.9	22.7%	14.0%	8.7%	0.6%	5.35	3.28	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	Pulaski Yankees	12	12	36	184	47	46	3	100%	3.0	17.4%	31.2%	-13.9%	2.3%	6.25	6.84	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	Pulaski Yankees	12	12	36	184	47	46	3	100%	3.0	25.5%	25.0%	0.5%	1.6%	6.25	5.41	—
2019	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	104	470	127	70	9	100%	4.7	19.9%	18.5%	1.4%	3.0%	5.47	5.40	—
2019	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	104	470	127	70	9	100%	4.7	27.0%	14.9%	12.1%	1.9%	5.47	3.80	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	106	451	133	60	11	95%	4.8	23.4%	14.8%	8.6%	2.9%	3.39	4.58	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	106	451	133	60	11	95%	4.8	29.5%	13.3%	16.2%	2.4%	3.39	3.64	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	24	24	93	421	107	62	7	100%	3.9	20.6%	16.2%	4.4%	2.5%	5.24	4.79	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	24	24	93	421	107	62	7	100%	3.9	25.4%	14.7%	10.7%	1.7%	5.24	3.78	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	22	126	574	129	71	15	76%	4.4	21.9%	12.1%	9.8%	2.9%	5.56	4.36	+1.5
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	22	126	574	129	71	15	76%	4.4	22.5%	12.4%	10.1%	2.6%	5.56	4.29	+1.7
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	11	48	226	42	22	5	100%	4.4	17.8%	10.6%	7.2%	2.4%	6.75	4.28	+0.6
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	11	48	226	42	22	5	100%	4.4	17.8%	10.6%	7.2%	2.4%	6.75	4.28	+0.6
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	11	48	226	42	22	5	100%	4.4	18.6%	9.7%	8.8%	2.2%	6.75	4.08	+0.8
2026	27	MLB MLE	Athletics	60	1	73	317	93	36	7	2%	1.2	29.3%	11.4%	18.0%	2.3%	3.08	3.30	+1.1
2026	27	MLB MLE	Athletics	60	1	73	317	93	36	7	2%	1.2	29.3%	11.4%	18.0%	2.3%	3.08	3.30	+1.1
2026	27	MLB RAW	Athletics	60	1	73	317	93	36	7	2%	1.2	29.3%	11.4%	18.0%	2.2%	3.08	3.28	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			91	26	223	992	231	110	25	29%	2.4	23.3%	11.1%	12.2%	2.5%	4.61	3.97	+1.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	OAK	10	10	59	249	68	30	7	100%	5.9	27.3%	12.1%	15.2%	2.7%	4.18	4.18	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	OAK	7	7	44	185	49	23	5	100%	6.3	26.7%	12.3%	14.4%	2.8%	4.27	4.34	+0.5
2029	30	MLB MLE	OAK	6	6	33	140	36	18	4	100%	5.5	26.0%	12.6%	13.4%	3.0%	4.43	4.54	+0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	OAK	7	7	42	177	47	22	5	100%	6.0	26.7%	12.3%	14.4%	2.8%	4.27	4.34	+0.5
2029	30	MLB CTX	OAK	5	5	31	131	34	17	4	100%	6.2	26.0%	12.6%	13.4%	3.0%	4.43	4.54	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		103	38	296	1301	313	148	34	37%	2.9	24.0%	11.4%	12.6%	2.6%	4.54	3.95	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		70	26	200	880	212	100	23	37%	2.9	24.0%	11.4%	12.6%	2.6%	4.54	3.95	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		193	125	629	2834	608	443	72	65%	3.3	21.4%	15.6%	5.8%	2.6%	4.93	4.67	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	40	200	901	193	141	23	65%	3.3	21.4%	15.6%	5.8%	2.6%	4.93	4.67	+3.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 6 IPFIP 4.12 → 4.42 (+0.30)K% 21.2% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.21%	—	×0.860	18.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×0.900	8.18%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.001	×1.100	3.33%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.12 → 4.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 17 IPFIP 3.90 → 4.06 (+0.16)K% 29.1% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.11%	—	×0.860	25.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.25%	—	×0.900	18.23%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷0.996	×1.100	1.40%

Result: FIP 3.90 → 4.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAMidland RockHounds · 93 IPFIP 3.73 → 4.79 (+1.06)K% 25.4% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.42%	—	×0.810	20.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.73%	—	×1.100	16.20%
HR / BF /BF	1.66%	÷0.793	×1.200	2.52%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 59).

Result: FIP 3.73 → 4.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AASomerset Patriots · 74 IPFIP 3.74 → 4.49 (+0.75)K% 26.1% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.10%	—	×0.810	21.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.89%	—	×1.100	14.18%
HR / BF /BF	2.20%	÷1.053	×1.200	2.51%

Result: FIP 3.74 → 4.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 33 IPFIP 3.39 → 4.80 (+1.41)K% 37.6% → 28.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.59%	—	×0.770	28.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.150	16.43%
HR / BF /BF	3.01%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.76%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.39 → 4.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ACharleston RiverDogs · 93 IPFIP 3.97 → 5.40 (+1.43)K% 26.9% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.93%	—	×0.740	19.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.69%	—	×1.180	18.52%
HR / BF /BF	2.11%	÷0.916	×1.300	2.99%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 3.97 → 5.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Tampa Tarpons · 11 IPFIP 1.63 → 2.30 (+0.67)K% 27.9% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.91%	—	×0.770	21.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.98%	—	×1.150	8.02%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.960	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.63 → 2.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKPulaski Yankees · 36 IPFIP 5.00 → 6.84 (+1.84)K% 25.5% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.54%	—	×0.680	17.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	25.00%	—	×1.250	31.25%
HR / BF /BF	1.63%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.28%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.00 → 6.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Medina (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.18	27.3%	12.1%	2.7%	—	4.43	26.4%	14.0%	77	+0.25	—	—	—
Jose Contreras R 2003 · 3.03 FIP	31	SP-	3.03	24.6%	9.9%	1.4%	.255	4.30	17.9%	9.5%	571	+1.27	2.43	1,279	71
Sam Lewis R 2019 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP-	3.41	21.0%	10.8%	1.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	224	66
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	66
Ryne Stanek R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	28	SW	4.14	27.2%	11.0%	3.5%	.262	3.39	28.2%	15.7%	123	-0.75	2.96	771	65
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	65
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	64
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	62
Joaquín Benoit R 2005 · 3.96 FIP	28	SW	3.96	21.1%	10.3%	2.4%	.246	3.39	24.2%	13.9%	207	-0.57	1.99	1,064	62
Jesse Scholtens R 2022 · 4.18 FIP	28	SW	4.18	22.4%	8.4%	3.5%	.303	4.35	18.8%	11.9%	193	+0.17	3.34	883	62
Junior Guerra R 2015 · 3.18 FIP	30	SW	3.18	26.8%	10.3%	1.9%	.269	4.15	20.8%	10.9%	390	+0.97	3.18	646	62
Phil Klein R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	27	SW	3.10	24.5%	6.6%	2.2%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	197	62
Jefry Rodriguez R 2021 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.4%	13.5%	3.4%	.287	4.58	19.8%	6.8%	64	-0.45	3.30	578	61
Asher Wojciechowski R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SW	3.99	23.4%	6.5%	3.7%	.299	5.06	21.5%	13.1%	323	+1.07	3.15	678	61
Mitch Neunborn R 2024 · 4.25 FIP	27	SP-	4.25	19.0%	12.0%	2.2%	.285	5.80	16.4%	6.5%	114	+1.55	3.65	248	60
Kolton Mahoney R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	27	SW	3.56	19.4%	8.8%	1.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	302	60
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	60
Drew VerHagen R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	28	SW	4.11	19.5%	7.3%	3.2%	.344	6.00	17.0%	4.7%	22	+1.89	2.80	487	60
Todd Wellemeyer R 2007 · 4.74 FIP	28	SW	4.74	17.0%	10.8%	3.1%	.270	4.86	15.5%	6.4%	373	+0.12	3.35	615	59
Nate Karns R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	28	SP-	3.88	24.2%	10.6%	2.7%	.322	4.46	27.1%	20.7%	45	+0.58	3.88	299	59
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	60	24.6%	11.9%	1.02	4.48
Bill Kelso ('64-'68, 1 WAR*)	1.0	67	23.1%*	11.6%*	1.09*	4.19*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Tony Cingrani ('18)	1.7	56	25.8%	11.3%	1.26	4.01
Brandon Workman ('21)	1.6	55	24.3%	11.1%	1.04	4.02
Joel Hanrahan ('13)	2.0	67	25.0%	11.2%	0.89	3.85