Mitch Keller
P
Pittsburgh Pirates
Age 30
RHP
6'3" / 213 lbs
MLB
Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 2.6 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION103 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.11
FIP4.08
K%18.6%
BB%7.4%
K-BB%11.2%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 173 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3493.4
Whiff%
p1220.0%
K%
p1717.4%
xwOBA vs
p150.354
FB+5.1 (49%)
CT+2.1 (16%)
SL+0.9 (17%)
SI (18%)
CU (9%)
CH-1.2 (9%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | Bristol Pirates | 6 | 6 | 20 | 101 | 25 | 16 | 1 | 100% | 3.3 | 16.8% | 19.8% | -3.0% | 1.4% | 5.49 | 4.95 | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | Bristol Pirates | 6 | 6 | 20 | 101 | 25 | 16 | 1 | 100% | 3.3 | 24.8% | 15.8% | 8.9% | 1.0% | 5.49 | 3.66 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 130 | 511 | 138 | 19 | 4 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.9% | 4.4% | 15.5% | 0.9% | 2.35 | 2.49 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 130 | 511 | 138 | 19 | 4 | 100% | 5.4 | 27.0% | 3.7% | 23.3% | 0.8% | 2.35 | 1.82 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 112 | 448 | 109 | 31 | 7 | 100% | 5.3 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 11.3% | 2.0% | 3.13 | 3.56 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 112 | 448 | 109 | 31 | 7 | 100% | 5.3 | 24.3% | 6.9% | 17.4% | 1.6% | 3.13 | 2.80 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 25 | 142 | 597 | 135 | 55 | 10 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.3% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 3.48 | 4.15 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 25 | 142 | 597 | 135 | 55 | 10 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 13.4% | 1.7% | 3.48 | 3.28 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 152 | 663 | 188 | 51 | 15 | 100% | 5.1 | 26.1% | 8.0% | 18.2% | 2.6% | 4.69 | 3.31 | +3.7 |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 152 | 663 | 188 | 51 | 15 | 100% | 5.1 | 28.4% | 7.7% | 20.7% | 2.3% | 4.69 | 2.92 | +4.4 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5 | 5 | 22 | 87 | 16 | 18 | 4 | 100% | 4.3 | 18.4% | 20.7% | -2.3% | 4.6% | 2.91 | 6.72 | -0.5 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5 | 5 | 22 | 87 | 16 | 18 | 4 | 100% | 4.3 | 18.4% | 20.7% | -2.3% | 4.6% | 2.91 | 6.52 | -0.5 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 29 | 129 | 598 | 131 | 60 | 12 | 94% | 4.2 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 2.0% | 5.53 | 3.70 | +2.6 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 29 | 129 | 598 | 131 | 60 | 12 | 94% | 4.2 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 2.0% | 5.53 | 3.68 | +2.6 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 31 | 29 | 159 | 687 | 138 | 59 | 14 | 94% | 5.1 | 20.1% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 2.1% | 3.91 | 3.62 | +3.3 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 31 | 29 | 159 | 687 | 138 | 59 | 14 | 94% | 5.1 | 20.1% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 2.0% | 3.91 | 3.62 | +3.3 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 32 | 32 | 194 | 825 | 210 | 55 | 25 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.5% | 6.7% | 18.8% | 3.1% | 4.21 | 3.48 | +4.4 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 32 | 32 | 194 | 825 | 210 | 55 | 25 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.5% | 6.7% | 18.8% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 3.46 | +4.4 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 31 | 31 | 178 | 773 | 166 | 50 | 23 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.5% | 6.5% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 3.76 | +3.4 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 31 | 31 | 178 | 773 | 166 | 50 | 23 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.5% | 6.5% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 3.76 | +3.4 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 32 | 32 | 176 | 749 | 150 | 51 | 21 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.0% | 6.8% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 3.83 | +3.2 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 32 | 32 | 176 | 749 | 150 | 51 | 21 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.0% | 6.8% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 3.81 | +3.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 19 | 19 | 103 | 443 | 77 | 35 | 13 | 100% | 5.4 | 17.4% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 5.14 | 4.24 | +1.4 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 70 | 295 | 55 | 22 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.6% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.08 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 55 | 22 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.6% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 4.07 | +0.6 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 173 | 738 | 132 | 57 | 22 | — | — | 17.9% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.72 | 4.18 | +2.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 173 | 732 | 132 | 57 | 22 | — | — | 18.0% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.18 | +2.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 27 | 27 | 162 | 682 | 124 | 53 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.2% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.66 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 25 | 25 | 150 | 631 | 110 | 51 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.4% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.78 | 4.92 | +0.8 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 27 | 27 | 162 | 684 | 124 | 53 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.2% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.65 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 25 | 25 | 150 | 633 | 110 | 52 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.4% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.77 | 4.91 | +0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 249 | 247 | 1362 | 5870 | 1203 | 458 | 168 | 99% | 5.5 | 20.5% | 7.8% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.57 | 3.92 | +23.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 36 | 200 | 862 | 177 | 67 | 25 | 99% | 5.5 | 20.5% | 7.8% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.57 | 3.92 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 287 | 283 | 1517 | 6482 | 1376 | 519 | 160 | 99% | 5.3 | 21.2% | 8.0% | 13.2% | 2.5% | 4.09 | 3.68 | +30.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 37 | 200 | 854 | 181 | 68 | 21 | 99% | 5.3 | 21.2% | 8.0% | 13.2% | 2.5% | 4.09 | 3.68 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mitch Keller (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.16 | 21.2% | 6.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.78 | 17.8% | 9.9% | 311 | +0.62 | — | — | — |
| Tom Koehler R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.39 | 19.0% | 9.8% | 3.0% | .291 | 4.71 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 110 | +0.32 | 4.39 | 474 | 40 |
| Merrill Kelly R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.21 | 20.3% | 6.8% | 3.6% | .289 | 3.67 | 21.1% | 14.8% | 390 | -0.54 | 3.54 | 1,102 | 40 |
| Miguel González R 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.59 | 17.5% | 7.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 4.25 | 15.9% | 9.0% | 325 | -0.34 | 3.73 | 469 | 40 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2027 · 3.67 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.67 | 21.2% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .302 | 4.58 | 20.6% | 10.5% | 285 | +0.91 | 3.67 | 469 | 40 |
| Matt Garza R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.78 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 3.6% | .315 | 4.45 | 15.5% | 7.7% | 216 | -0.33 | 4.12 | 365 | 40 |
| Matt Buschmann R 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.92 | 17.2% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .282 | 4.71 | 12.8% | 4.4% | 142 | +0.79 | 3.92 | 277 | 39 |
| Charlie Morton R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.55 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 2.1% | .302 | 3.11 | 27.7% | 18.9% | 331 | -0.44 | 2.55 | 1,534 | 39 |
| Kyle Davies R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.72 | 13.8% | 6.1% | 1.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 153 | 39 |
| Thad Weber R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.82 | 13.7% | 6.4% | 3.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 11.2% | 5.7% | 202 | -0.19 | 4.55 | 363 | 39 |
| Cory Riordan R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.19 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 3.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 154 | 39 |
| Josh Lowey R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.30 | 21.1% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .311 | 2.34 | 26.7% | 20.1% | 231 | -0.96 | 2.28 | 426 | 39 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.80 | 20.2% | 6.8% | 2.8% | .309 | 4.37 | 22.0% | 16.2% | 300 | +0.57 | 2.03 | 804 | 39 |
| Toru Murata R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.86 | 13.3% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .261 | 3.55 | 12.9% | 7.2% | 102 | -0.31 | 3.55 | 267 | 38 |
| Jhoulys Chacín R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.82 | 19.6% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .244 | 4.93 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 168 | +1.11 | 3.79 | 887 | 38 |
| Nate Long R 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.86 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 151 | 38 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2029 · 3.49 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.49 | 18.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.58 | 17.3% | 9.6% | 253 | +1.09 | 3.49 | 393 | 38 |
| Lance Lynn R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.55 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .237 | 3.28 | 25.9% | 17.8% | 449 | -1.27 | 2.87 | 1,390 | 38 |
| Mike Pelfrey R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.70 | 12.0% | 6.2% | 1.5% | .326 | 5.31 | 12.5% | 2.9% | 239 | +1.61 | 3.70 | 404 | 38 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.12 | 16.1% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 401 | 37 |
| Ian Kennedy R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.46 | 24.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | .293 | 4.91 | 21.1% | 13.0% | 469 | +0.45 | 2.87 | 864 | 37 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 161 | 19.0% | 7.5% | 1.22 | 4.50 |
| Miguel González ('17) | 3 | 145 | 16.2% | 7.5% | 1.18 | 4.44 |
| Jason Hammel ('18) | 4 | 161 | 19.8% | 6.5% | 1.28 | 4.65 |
| Ricky Nolasco ('17) | 3 | 139 | 18.1% | 6.5% | 1.38 | 4.85 |
| CC Sabathia ('19) CYAS×6HOF | 5 | 151 | 20.2% | 7.8% | 1.39 | 4.14 |
| R.A. Dickey ('17) | 3 | 191 | 16.0% | 7.9% | 1.24 | 4.19 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |