Mitch Keller — OGILVIE

Mitch Keller P Pittsburgh Pirates

+2.1 WAR

Age 30 RHP 6'3" / 213 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 2.1 · 2026

ERA4.19

FIP4.17

xFIP4.25

SIERA4.59

K%21.2%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%14.3%

IP173

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.1peak

2026

K†5050

FB Velo

p3293.2

Whiff%

p2121.2%

p1116.5%

xwOBA vs

p620.300

FB+5.1 (52%)

CT+2.1 (10%)

SL+0.9 (20%)

SI (17%)

CU (7%)

CH-1.2 (12%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	19	ROK	Bristol Pirates	6	6	20	101	25	16	1	16.8%	19.8%	1.4%	5.49	4.95	+0.0
2016	20	A+	Bradenton Marauders	24	24	130	511	138	19	4	19.9%	4.4%	1.0%	2.35	2.52	+4.1
2017	21	AA	Altoona Curve	21	21	112	448	109	31	7	19.1%	7.8%	1.9%	3.13	3.54	+2.2
2018	22	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	25	25	142	597	135	55	10	19.3%	10.1%	2.3%	3.48	3.98	+2.1
2019	23	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	30	30	152	663	188	51	15	26.1%	8.0%	2.6%	4.69	3.31	+3.4
2020	24	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	5	5	22	87	16	18	4	18.4%	20.7%	5.3%	2.91	7.06	-0.5
2021	25	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	31	29	129	598	131	60	12	21.1%	10.1%	2.0%	5.53	3.71	+2.3
2022	26	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	31	29	159	687	138	59	14	20.1%	8.6%	2.2%	3.91	3.69	+2.9
2023	27	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	194	825	210	55	25	25.5%	6.7%	3.2%	4.21	3.58	+3.8
2024	28	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	31	31	178	773	166	50	23	21.5%	6.5%	3.0%	4.25	3.74	+3.1
2025	29	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	176	749	150	51	21	20.0%	6.8%	2.8%	4.19	3.82	+3.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	4	4	22	90	14	9	1	15.6%	10.0%	1.1%	2.86	3.66	+0.3
ROS	30	MLB	PIT	25	25	139	588	116	44	16	19.7%	7.6%	2.7%	3.90	3.85	+2.3
2026 Total	30	MLB	PIT	—	—	161	678	130	53	17	19.1%	7.9%	2.5%	3.76	3.83	+2.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	31	MLB	PIT	26	26	145	611	117	47	17	19.1%	7.7%	2.7%	4.32	4.34	+1.6
2028	32	MLB	PIT	23	23	129	546	101	43	15	18.5%	7.8%	2.8%	4.40	4.45	+1.2
2029	33	MLB	PIT	21	21	115	484	86	39	14	17.8%	8.0%	2.9%	4.51	4.58	+0.9
2030	34	MLB	PIT	18	18	101	428	73	35	13	17.1%	8.2%	3.0%	4.64	4.72	+0.7
2031	35	MLB	PIT	16	16	89	375	61	32	12	16.4%	8.4%	3.1%	4.78	4.87	+0.3
2032	36	MLB	PIT	14	14	77	326	57	26	11	17.6%	7.9%	3.2%	4.77	4.76	+0.3
2033	37	MLB	PIT	12	12	67	281	47	23	9	16.8%	8.2%	3.4%	4.87	4.94	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			272	268	1436	6129	1313	493	149	21.4%	8.0%	2.4%	4.00	3.65	+26.9
/ 200 IP	—			38	37	200	854	183	69	21	21.4%	8.0%	2.4%	4.00	3.65	+3.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mitch Keller (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.15	21.6%	6.9%	2.9%	—	4.45	18.5%	10.7%	389	+0.30	—	—	—
Toru Murata R 2026 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	13.3%	6.9%	2.1%	.261	3.63	12.9%	7.2%	102	-0.39	3.63	267	42
Thad Weber R 2026 · 4.64 FIP	30	SP	4.64	13.7%	6.4%	3.5%	.293	4.59	11.2%	5.7%	202	-0.05	4.36	363	41
Mike Pelfrey R 2027 · 3.70 FIP	31	SP	3.70	12.0%	6.2%	1.5%	.326	5.27	12.5%	2.9%	239	+1.57	3.70	404	40
Elih Villanueva R 2025 · 3.82 FIP	29	SP	3.82	11.0%	5.5%	1.7%	.269	5.50	14.1%	8.1%	57	+1.68	3.82	225	40
Kyle Davies R 2027 · 3.55 FIP	31	SP	3.55	13.8%	6.1%	1.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	153	40
Tom Koehler R 2026 · 4.37 FIP	30	SP	4.37	19.0%	9.8%	3.0%	.291	4.70	22.4%	13.4%	110	+0.33	4.37	474	40
Matt Garza R 2027 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	15.6%	8.1%	3.6%	.315	4.32	15.5%	7.7%	216	-0.49	4.03	365	40
Cory Riordan R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	30	SP	4.21	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	154	39
Nate Long R 2025 · 4.69 FIP	29	SP	4.69	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	151	39
Matt Buschmann R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	31	SP	4.02	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.83	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.02	277	39
Manuel Flores R 2026 · 3.67 FIP	30	SP	3.67	13.1%	5.7%	1.7%	.318	3.83	16.4%	10.4%	252	+0.16	3.48	515	38
Miguel González R 2027 · 4.53 FIP	31	SP	4.53	17.5%	7.9%	3.5%	.289	4.28	15.9%	9.0%	325	-0.25	3.76	469	38
Greg Peavey R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	27	SP	4.37	11.2%	6.5%	2.5%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	147	38
Charlie Morton R 2027 · 3.48 FIP	31	SP	3.48	17.9%	6.3%	2.0%	.302	3.15	27.7%	18.9%	331	-0.33	2.52	1,534	38
Merrill Kelly R 2026 · 4.37 FIP	30	SP	4.37	20.3%	6.8%	3.9%	.289	3.76	21.1%	14.8%	390	-0.61	3.61	1,008	38
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2027 · 3.63 FIP	31	SP	3.63	21.2%	8.5%	2.3%	.302	4.61	20.6%	10.5%	285	+0.98	3.63	469	38
Daniel McCutchen R 2028 · 4.32 FIP	32	SP	4.32	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.81	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.49	4.32	287	37
Jeff Samardzija R 2026 · 3.88 FIP	30	SP	3.88	17.9%	5.4%	2.9%	.297	4.09	21.5%	16.0%	473	+0.21	3.88	885	37
Nestor Molina R 2026 · 4.26 FIP	30	SP	4.26	16.1%	7.4%	2.9%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	401	37
Josh Lowey R 2026 · 3.33 FIP	30	SP	3.33	21.1%	7.8%	1.8%	.311	2.31	26.7%	20.1%	231	-1.02	2.25	426	37

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.151 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$15M	+2.1	$17M	+$1M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$15M	+1.6	$13M	-$2M
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$15M	+1.2	$10M	-$5M
Totals		$46M		$40M	-$6M