Mitch Keller — OGILVIE

Mitch Keller P Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 30 RHP 6'3" / 213 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 2.2 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 173 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 104

ERA4.21

FIP4.21

K%18.7%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP173

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 116 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$29M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4550

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3393.3

Whiff%

p1620.5%

p1917.7%

xwOBA vs

p140.355

FB+5.1 (49%)

CT+2.1 (17%)

SL+0.9 (16%)

SI (17%)

CU (9%)

CH-1.2 (9%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.151 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$1M	+0.0	$0.2M	-$1M
2027	Ext	$15M	+0.3	$1M	-$13M
2028	Ext	$15M	—	—	—
Totals		$32M		$0.6M	-$27M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$27M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	Bristol Pirates	6	6	20	101	25	16	1	100%	3.3	16.8%	19.8%	-3.0%	1.4%	5.49	4.95	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	Bristol Pirates	6	6	20	101	25	16	1	100%	3.3	24.8%	15.8%	8.9%	1.0%	5.49	3.66	—
2016	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	130	511	138	19	4	100%	5.4	19.9%	4.4%	15.5%	1.0%	2.35	2.52	—
2016	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	130	511	138	19	4	100%	5.4	27.0%	3.7%	23.3%	0.8%	2.35	1.82	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	112	448	109	31	7	100%	5.3	19.1%	7.8%	11.3%	1.9%	3.13	3.54	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	112	448	109	31	7	100%	5.3	24.3%	6.9%	17.4%	1.6%	3.13	2.80	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	142	597	135	55	10	100%	5.7	19.3%	10.1%	9.2%	2.2%	3.48	3.98	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	25	142	597	135	55	10	100%	5.7	22.6%	9.2%	13.4%	1.7%	3.48	3.28	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	152	663	188	51	15	100%	5.1	26.1%	8.0%	18.2%	2.5%	4.69	3.30	+3.0
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	152	663	188	51	15	100%	5.1	28.4%	7.7%	20.7%	2.3%	4.69	2.92	+3.8
2020	24	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	5	5	22	87	16	18	4	100%	4.3	18.4%	20.7%	-2.3%	5.0%	2.91	6.90	-0.5
2020	24	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	5	5	22	87	16	18	4	100%	4.3	18.4%	20.7%	-2.3%	4.6%	2.91	6.52	-0.4
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	29	129	598	131	60	12	94%	4.2	21.1%	10.1%	11.0%	2.1%	5.53	3.78	+1.7
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	29	129	598	131	60	12	94%	4.2	21.9%	10.0%	11.9%	2.0%	5.53	3.68	+1.9
2022	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	31	29	159	687	138	59	14	94%	5.1	20.1%	8.6%	11.5%	2.2%	3.91	3.70	+2.3
2022	26	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	31	29	159	687	138	59	14	94%	5.1	20.1%	8.6%	11.5%	2.0%	3.91	3.62	+2.5
2023	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	194	825	210	55	25	100%	6.1	25.5%	6.7%	18.8%	3.3%	4.21	3.59	+3.1
2023	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	194	825	210	55	25	100%	6.1	25.5%	6.7%	18.8%	3.3%	4.21	3.59	+3.1
2023	27	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	194	825	210	55	25	100%	6.1	25.5%	6.7%	18.8%	3.0%	4.21	3.46	+3.4
2024	28	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	31	31	178	773	166	50	23	100%	5.7	21.5%	6.5%	15.0%	3.2%	4.25	3.87	+2.2
2024	28	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	31	31	178	773	166	50	23	100%	5.7	21.5%	6.5%	15.0%	3.2%	4.25	3.87	+2.2
2024	28	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	31	31	178	773	166	50	23	100%	5.7	21.5%	6.5%	15.0%	3.0%	4.25	3.76	+2.5
2025	29	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	176	749	150	51	21	100%	5.5	20.0%	6.8%	13.2%	3.0%	4.19	3.94	+2.0
2025	29	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	176	749	150	51	21	100%	5.5	20.0%	6.8%	13.2%	3.0%	4.19	3.94	+2.0
2025	29	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	176	749	150	51	21	100%	5.5	20.0%	6.8%	13.2%	2.8%	4.19	3.81	+2.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			187	185	994	4321	926	339	118	99%	5.3	21.4%	7.8%	13.6%	2.7%	4.60	3.80	+13.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	22	22	116	503	89	42	15	100%	5.3	17.7%	8.3%	9.3%	3.2%	5.29	4.43	+0.6
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	22	22	116	503	89	42	15	100%	5.3	17.7%	8.3%	9.3%	3.2%	5.29	4.43	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	MLB RAW	PIT	22	22	116	503	89	42	15	100%	5.3	17.7%	8.3%	9.3%	3.0%	5.29	4.30	+0.8
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	PIT	22	22	116	503	89	42	15	100%	5.3	17.7%	8.3%	9.3%	3.0%	5.29	4.30	+0.8
ROS	30	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.7%	7.7%	11.0%	3.1%	4.21	4.21	—
ROS	30	MLB CTX	PIT	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.7%	7.7%	11.0%	2.9%	4.08	4.08	—
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	116	503	89	42	15	—	—	17.7%	8.3%	9.3%	3.0%	5.29	4.43	+0.6
FULL	30	MLB A+C	PIT	—	—	116	488	89	42	15	—	—	18.2%	8.6%	9.6%	3.1%	5.29	4.34	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	PIT	27	27	162	682	125	55	22	100%	6.0	18.3%	8.0%	10.2%	3.3%	4.66	4.75	+0.3
2028	32	MLB MLE	PIT	25	25	150	631	110	53	22	100%	6.0	17.5%	8.4%	9.0%	3.5%	4.87	5.01	-0.2
2029	33	MLB MLE	PIT	23	23	137	579	96	51	22	100%	6.0	16.6%	8.9%	7.7%	3.8%	5.12	5.29	-0.6
2027	31	MLB CTX	PIT	27	27	162	684	125	55	21	100%	6.0	18.3%	8.0%	10.2%	3.0%	4.53	4.62	+0.3
2028	32	MLB CTX	PIT	25	25	150	633	111	53	21	100%	6.0	17.5%	8.4%	9.0%	3.3%	4.73	4.87	-0.2
2029	33	MLB CTX	PIT	23	23	137	578	96	51	20	100%	6.0	16.6%	8.9%	7.7%	3.5%	4.96	5.13	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		262	260	1442	6214	1257	499	179	99%	5.5	20.2%	8.0%	12.2%	2.9%	4.64	3.99	+15.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	862	174	69	25	99%	5.5	20.2%	8.0%	12.2%	2.9%	4.64	3.99	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		290	286	1530	6542	1388	526	169	99%	5.3	21.2%	8.0%	13.2%	2.6%	4.11	3.74	+12.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	37	200	855	182	69	22	99%	5.3	21.2%	8.0%	13.2%	2.6%	4.11	3.74	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mitch Keller (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.25	21.2%	6.7%	3.1%	—	5.00	17.5%	9.1%	448	+0.75	—	—	—
Chase Anderson R 2018 · 4.98 FIP	30	SP	4.98	19.9%	8.9%	4.4%	.235	4.93	20.1%	11.9%	253	-0.05	3.30	1,146	74
Rick Porcello R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	30	SP	4.51	18.6%	5.6%	4.1%	.303	3.13	20.7%	15.0%	59	-1.38	3.13	1,023	72
Kyle Gibson R 2018 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	21.7%	9.3%	2.8%	.282	3.91	21.2%	12.9%	409	-0.06	3.56	1,689	71
Jhoulys Chacín R 2018 · 3.71 FIP	30	SP	3.71	19.6%	8.5%	2.1%	.244	5.07	20.0%	10.1%	168	+1.36	3.71	887	69
Mike Leake R 2018 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	15.2%	4.0%	3.0%	.301	5.05	15.2%	12.2%	197	+1.08	3.69	937	69
Masahiro Tanaka R 2019 · 4.01 FIP	30	SP	4.01	19.6%	5.3%	3.5%	.292	4.08	22.3%	18.2%	48	+0.07	3.34	918	69
Tom Koehler R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	30	SP	4.38	19.0%	9.8%	3.0%	.291	4.66	22.4%	13.4%	110	+0.28	4.38	474	59
Jeremy Hellickson R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	30	SP	5.25	13.8%	6.5%	4.5%	.241	4.29	17.7%	11.3%	147	-0.96	3.74	646	59
Tanner Roark R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	30	SP	3.88	21.4%	7.6%	3.0%	.294	4.48	20.3%	13.2%	393	+0.60	3.13	942	59
Andrew Cashner R 2017 · 4.34 FIP	30	SP	4.34	12.2%	9.1%	2.1%	.262	4.68	15.7%	6.6%	303	+0.34	3.64	786	57
Chris Archer R 2019 · 4.90 FIP	30	SP	4.90	27.2%	10.1%	5.1%	.292	4.39	20.7%	10.4%	136	-0.51	2.85	1,018	56
Marcus Stroman R 2021 · 3.28 FIP	30	SP	3.28	21.6%	5.8%	2.3%	.281	3.82	19.3%	11.2%	430	+0.54	3.28	1,367	55
Miles Mikolas R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	18.8%	4.1%	3.8%	.295	4.02	18.4%	13.4%	266	-0.09	3.13	1,296	55
Iván Nova R 2017 · 4.43 FIP	30	SP	4.43	16.7%	4.3%	4.0%	.294	4.67	15.0%	9.6%	367	+0.24	4.03	810	54
Lance Lynn R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	30	SP	4.68	19.7%	9.4%	3.7%	.237	3.25	25.9%	17.8%	449	-1.43	2.85	1,390	54
Alex Cobb R 2018 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	15.4%	5.7%	3.3%	.298	3.86	21.3%	13.4%	158	-0.46	2.74	844	53
Stephen Strasburg R 2018 · 3.33 FIP	30	SP	3.33	28.7%	6.6%	3.3%	.299	3.14	29.1%	22.3%	231	-0.19	2.42	811	52
Jake Arrieta R 2016 · 3.42 FIP	30	SP	3.42	23.9%	9.4%	2.1%	.237	4.07	20.3%	12.6%	477	+0.65	2.13	1,046	51
Félix Hernández R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	30	SP	4.42	18.6%	9.9%	3.0%	.265	4.92	19.2%	11.3%	327	+0.50	3.60	682	51
Jordan Zimmermann R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	30	SP	4.38	14.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.297	4.80	16.8%	11.6%	403	+0.42	3.57	731	49

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	152	18.5%	8.0%	1.32	4.71
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46