Kenyi Perez — OGILVIE

Kenyi Perez P Knoxville Smokies

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 165 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 156147vR 139

ERA6.45

FIP6.45

K%22.5%

BB%27.2%

K-BB%-4.7%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	13	13	39	201	46	44	2	100%	3.0	15.6%	27.4%	-11.8%	1.5%	7.91	6.09	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Red	13	13	39	201	46	44	2	100%	3.0	22.9%	21.9%	1.0%	1.0%	7.91	4.81	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	11	10	24	115	30	29	0	91%	2.2	17.7%	31.5%	-13.8%	0.0%	5.62	5.59	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	11	10	24	115	30	29	0	91%	2.2	26.1%	25.2%	0.9%	0.0%	5.62	4.22	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	24	130	32	36	2	0%	1.6	14.6%	38.9%	-24.3%	3.0%	7.23	8.43	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	24	130	32	36	2	0%	1.6	14.6%	38.9%	-24.3%	3.0%	7.23	8.43	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	0	24	130	32	36	2	0%	1.6	24.6%	27.7%	-3.1%	1.5%	7.23	6.06	—
2024	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	36	0	38	205	71	60	2	0%	1.1	25.6%	34.5%	-8.9%	1.4%	9.47	6.08	—
2024	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	36	0	38	205	71	60	2	0%	1.1	25.6%	34.5%	-8.9%	1.4%	9.47	6.08	—
2024	22	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	36	0	38	205	71	60	2	0%	1.1	34.6%	29.3%	5.4%	1.0%	9.47	4.78	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	36	0	40	197	55	46	1	0%	1.1	21.5%	26.9%	-5.4%	0.6%	5.67	5.00	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	36	0	40	197	55	46	1	0%	1.1	21.5%	26.9%	-5.4%	0.6%	5.67	5.00	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	36	0	40	197	55	46	1	0%	1.1	27.9%	23.4%	4.6%	0.5%	5.67	4.13	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	31	0	38	180	64	36	2	0%	1.2	28.0%	22.5%	5.5%	1.4%	2.63	4.33	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	31	0	38	180	64	36	2	0%	1.2	28.0%	22.5%	5.5%	1.4%	2.63	4.33	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	CHC	16	0	20	88	38	17	1	0%	1.3	43.2%	19.3%	23.9%	1.1%	2.66	2.52	—
2026	24	AA RAW	CHC	15	0	17	92	26	19	1	0%	1.2	28.3%	20.7%	7.6%	1.1%	2.60	3.93	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CHC	36	0	37	158	36	35	4	0%	1.0	23.0%	22.2%	0.8%	2.6%	5.97	5.79	-0.5
2027	25	MLB CTX	CHC	15	0	16	68	16	15	2	0%	1.1	23.0%	22.2%	0.8%	2.6%	5.97	5.79	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	68	16	15	2	0%	1.1	23.0%	22.2%	0.8%	2.6%	5.97	5.41	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	199	186	25	0%	1.1	23.0%	22.2%	0.8%	2.6%	5.97	5.41	-2.0
Career	—	MLE		142	23	202	1028	216	306	13	16%	1.4	21.0%	29.8%	-8.8%	1.3%	6.43	5.81	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		141	23	200	1020	214	303	13	16%	1.4	21.0%	29.8%	-8.8%	1.3%	6.43	5.81	-2.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kenyi Perez (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.45	22.5%	27.2%	2.6%	—	5.79	23.0%	0.7%	37	-0.66	—	—	—
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.09	18.9%	3.4%	102	-0.63	3.74	203	86
Yoel Espinal R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	21.4%	23.1%	2.1%	.255	4.24	22.9%	10.0%	99	-1.13	3.86	231	82
Andrew Baker R 2023 · 5.99 FIP	23	SU	5.99	24.7%	25.1%	3.3%	.315	3.65	25.3%	12.2%	161	-2.34	3.44	256	81
Will McAffer R 2021 · 6.40 FIP	24	SU	6.40	21.5%	24.2%	3.7%	.343	5.37	14.5%	-5.7%	33	-1.03	4.68	133	81
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	79
Alec Hansen R 2019 · 5.74 FIP	24	SU	5.74	18.8%	19.8%	3.1%	.349	4.98	29.5%	-5.0%	22	-0.76	3.34	288	79
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	78
John McMillon R 2022 · 5.92 FIP	24	SU	5.92	22.8%	30.7%	1.6%	.246	4.70	26.1%	11.5%	108	-1.22	2.28	152	77
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	77
Luis Mora R 2019 · 5.27 FIP	24	SU	5.27	23.9%	22.7%	2.4%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	119	77
Kelvin Vasquez R 2017 · 6.26 FIP	24	SU	6.26	15.0%	23.2%	2.7%	.247	5.06	14.5%	-0.2%	48	-1.20	5.01	180	77
Jack Hartman R 2022 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	15.1%	20.3%	2.5%	.357	3.99	19.5%	8.6%	143	-1.79	3.46	161	77
Leandro Linares R 2018 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	16.2%	22.0%	1.8%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	1.93	134	76
Austin Glorius R 2017 · 6.09 FIP	24	SU	6.09	18.7%	21.0%	3.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	141	76
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	76
Alejandro Méndez R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	22	SU	5.85	20.6%	28.1%	1.7%	.211	5.17	15.0%	-6.0%	38	-0.67	4.65	136	76
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	75
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	75
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	75
Junior Montero R 2022 · 5.31 FIP	23	SU	5.31	20.2%	23.9%	1.6%	.192	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	100	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	22.8%	24.1%	1.01	6.15
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15