John McMillon
P
Lehigh Valley IronPigs
+0.0
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'3" / 230 lbs
AAA
ERA5.09
FIP5.09
xFIP3.76
SIERA3.52
K%22.9%
BB%12.6%
K-BB%10.3%
IP29
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
K†5555
SL+5.9 (61%)
FB-2.7 (39%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 13 | 1 | 17 | 82 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 26.2% | 17.3% | 6.3% | 7.41 | 6.55 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 24 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 26 | 0 | 31 | 146 | 45 | 38 | 2 | 22.8% | 30.7% | 1.6% | 6.10 | 5.95 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 41 | 0 | 55 | 214 | 99 | 25 | 2 | 34.9% | 13.5% | 0.8% | 2.11 | 2.28 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 39 | 0 | 43 | 198 | 50 | 31 | 8 | 21.6% | 18.1% | 5.6% | 4.98 | 6.63 | -0.8 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 39 | 0 | 41 | 195 | 52 | 32 | 7 | 21.3% | 15.1% | 5.1% | 6.31 | 6.01 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | PHI | 29 | — | 29 | 124 | 28 | 16 | 4 | 22.9% | 12.6% | 3.5% | 5.09 | 5.09 | -0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 31 | 135 | 29 | 19 | 4 | 21.8% | 13.8% | 3.3% | 4.76 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 29 | — | 29 | 121 | 28 | 15 | 4 | 22.8% | 12.4% | 3.5% | 5.04 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 160 | 1 | 190 | 846 | 215 | 156 | 30 | 25.4% | 18.5% | 3.6% | 4.78 | 5.25 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 168 | 1 | 200 | 891 | 226 | 164 | 32 | 25.4% | 18.5% | 3.6% | 4.78 | 5.25 | +0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| John McMillon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.09 | 22.9% | 12.6% | 3.5% | — | 5.06 | 22.8% | 10.4% | 29 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 85 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 80 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 80 |
| Cole McDonald R 2025 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 80 |
| Yennier Cano R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.48 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 3.4% | .325 | 3.14 | 23.4% | 16.2% | 191 | -1.34 | 2.39 | 332 | 78 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 78 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.51 | 23.3% | 13.6% | 3.0% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 315 | 77 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 77 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 283 | 76 |
| Peyton Gray R 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 104 | 75 |
| Neil Ramírez R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.75 | 27.1% | 12.5% | 4.3% | .389 | 4.77 | 29.1% | 19.7% | 116 | +0.02 | 3.10 | 220 | 75 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 75 |
| Kyle Barraclough R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.63 | 24.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .219 | 5.06 | 30.1% | 17.0% | 86 | +0.43 | 1.95 | 523 | 75 |
| Derek Law R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.24 | 23.5% | 13.0% | 2.7% | .306 | 3.36 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 110 | -0.88 | 2.51 | 520 | 75 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 3.1% | .450 | 3.38 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 85 | -1.47 | 3.01 | 115 | 75 |
| Brandon Maurer R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.89 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.98 | 234 | 75 |
| Michael Ynoa R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.68 | 23.1% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 142 | 75 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2024 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 75 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 74 |
| Tucker Healy R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.21 | 19.2% | 10.5% | 4.4% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 174 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.