John McMillon — OGILVIE

John McMillon P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 230 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.31

FIP5.31

K%22.6%

BB%14.2%

K-BB%8.4%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

SL+5.9 (61%)

FB-2.7 (39%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	1	17	82	32	13	4	8%	1.3	26.2%	17.3%	8.8%	6.4%	7.41	6.61	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	1	17	82	32	13	4	8%	1.3	39.0%	15.9%	23.2%	4.9%	7.41	4.69	—
2022	24	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	26	0	31	146	45	38	2	0%	1.2	22.8%	30.7%	-7.9%	1.6%	6.10	5.92	—
2022	24	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	26	0	31	146	45	38	2	0%	1.2	30.8%	26.0%	4.8%	1.4%	6.10	4.71	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	41	0	55	214	99	25	2	0%	1.3	34.9%	13.5%	21.4%	0.8%	2.11	2.28	+1.5
2023	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	41	0	55	214	99	25	2	0%	1.3	34.9%	13.5%	21.4%	0.8%	2.11	2.28	+1.5
2023	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	41	0	55	214	99	25	2	0%	1.3	46.3%	11.7%	34.6%	0.9%	2.11	1.35	+2.2
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	43	198	50	31	8	0%	1.1	20.3%	15.5%	4.8%	5.5%	4.98	6.37	-0.9
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	43	198	50	31	8	0%	1.1	20.3%	15.5%	4.8%	5.5%	4.98	6.37	-0.9
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	43	198	50	31	8	0%	1.1	25.3%	15.7%	9.6%	4.0%	4.98	5.34	-0.4
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	41	195	52	32	7	0%	1.1	21.3%	15.1%	6.1%	5.1%	6.31	6.00	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	41	195	52	32	7	0%	1.1	21.3%	15.1%	6.1%	5.1%	6.31	6.00	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	41	195	52	32	7	0%	1.1	26.7%	16.4%	10.3%	3.6%	6.31	5.11	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			14	0	16	60	21	5	2	0%	1.1	35.0%	8.3%	26.7%	3.3%	1.69	3.04	+0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	10	0	9	45	8	11	0	0%	0.9	—	—	—	—	7.71	—	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	10	0	9	45	8	11	0	0%	0.9	—	—	—	—	7.71	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	PHI	10	0	9	45	8	11	0	0%	0.9	17.8%	24.4%	-6.7%	0.0%	7.71	4.70	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	PHI	19	0	20	84	19	12	3	0%	1.1	22.4%	13.9%	8.5%	3.6%	5.29	5.34	-0.2
2027	29	MLB CTX	PHI	7	0	7	30	7	4	1	0%	1.0	22.4%	13.9%	8.5%	3.6%	5.29	5.34	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		21	0	23	91	28	9	3	0%	1.1	30.7%	10.2%	20.5%	3.4%	2.82	3.69	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		180	0	200	780	240	77	26	0%	1.1	30.7%	10.2%	20.5%	3.4%	2.82	3.69	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		168	1	197	880	219	159	30	1%	1.2	24.9%	18.1%	6.8%	3.4%	4.97	5.16	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		170	1	200	892	222	161	30	1%	1.2	24.9%	18.1%	6.8%	3.4%	4.97	5.16	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
John McMillon (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.31	22.6%	14.2%	3.5%	—	5.34	22.4%	8.5%	20	+0.03	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	84
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	80
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	79
Yennier Cano R 2022 · 4.46 FIP	28	SU	4.46	23.2%	11.8%	3.3%	.325	3.19	23.4%	16.2%	191	-1.27	2.43	377	78
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	77
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	77
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	28	SU	4.43	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	315	76
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	76
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	75
Michael Ynoa R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	23.1%	13.8%	3.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	142	75
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	74
Cristofer Ogando R 2022 · 4.90 FIP	28	SU	4.90	20.6%	11.6%	3.8%	.236	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	179	74
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	74
Joe Harvey R 2019 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	24.9%	14.3%	4.8%	.258	6.09	26.7%	6.8%	17	+0.66	2.56	197	74
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	74
Derek Law R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	28	SU	4.30	23.5%	13.0%	2.8%	.306	3.31	20.8%	12.2%	110	-0.99	2.49	520	74
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.42	20.8%	10.2%	92	+0.11	3.89	168	73
Kyle Dowdy R 2021 · 5.16 FIP	28	SU	5.16	20.3%	14.6%	3.5%	.282	3.57	21.1%	9.1%	116	-1.59	2.98	606	73
Tyler Kinley R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	28	SU	4.32	22.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.247	3.51	24.7%	15.9%	118	-0.81	1.58	595	73
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	73