John McMillon

P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 230 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	39	43	4.98	5.34	25.3%	15.7%	-0.4	K 21.1% · BB 15.5% · FIP 6.31
2025	27	MIX2 levels	39	41	6.31	5.11	26.7%	16.4%	—	K 21.3% · BB 15.1% · FIP 6.00
2026	28	AAAPHI	10	9	7.71	4.92	17.8%	24.4%	—	K 17.8% · BB 24.4% · FIP 4.70
2027PROJ	29	MLBPHI	2	2	5.05	5.05	22.9%	13.3%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBPHI	6	6	5.08	5.15	22.6%	13.2%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.4 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsWirfin Obispo (age 30) · Jim Miller (age 30) · Jason Bulger (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.05

FIP5.05

K%22.9%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%9.6%

Proj IP20

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	1	17	82	32	13	4	8%	1.3	26.2%	17.3%	8.8%	6.4%	7.41	6.61	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	1	17	82	32	13	4	8%	1.3	39.0%	15.9%	23.2%	4.9%	7.41	4.69	—
2022	24	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	26	0	31	146	45	38	2	0%	1.2	22.8%	30.7%	-7.9%	1.6%	6.10	5.92	—
2022	24	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	26	0	31	146	45	38	2	0%	1.2	30.8%	26.0%	4.8%	1.4%	6.10	4.71	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	41	0	55	214	99	25	2	0%	1.3	34.9%	13.5%	21.4%	0.8%	2.11	2.28	+1.5
2023	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	41	0	55	214	99	25	2	0%	1.3	46.3%	11.7%	34.6%	0.9%	2.11	1.35	+2.2
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	43	198	50	31	8	0%	1.1	21.1%	15.5%	5.6%	5.5%	4.98	6.31	-0.9
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	43	198	50	31	8	0%	1.1	21.1%	15.5%	5.6%	5.5%	4.98	6.31	-0.9
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	43	198	50	31	8	0%	1.1	25.3%	15.7%	9.6%	4.0%	4.98	5.34	-0.4
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	41	195	52	32	7	0%	1.1	21.3%	15.1%	6.1%	5.1%	6.31	6.00	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	41	195	52	32	7	0%	1.1	21.3%	15.1%	6.1%	5.1%	6.31	6.00	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	41	195	52	32	7	0%	1.1	26.7%	16.4%	10.3%	3.6%	6.31	5.11	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	10	0	9	45	8	11	0	0%	0.9	17.8%	24.4%	-6.7%	0.0%	7.71	4.70	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	10	0	9	45	8	11	0	0%	0.9	17.8%	24.4%	-6.7%	0.0%	7.71	4.70	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	10	0	9	45	8	11	0	0%	0.9	17.8%	24.4%	-6.7%	0.0%	7.71	4.92	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			14	0	16	60	21	5	2	0%	1.1	35.0%	8.3%	26.7%	3.3%	1.69	3.04	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	PHI	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	22.9%	13.3%	9.6%	3.3%	5.05	5.05	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	PHI	16	0	17	71	16	9	2	0%	1.1	22.6%	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	5.08	5.15	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	PHI	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	22.6%	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	5.08	5.15	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		20	0	22	86	27	8	3	0%	1.1	31.2%	9.8%	21.4%	3.4%	2.63	3.56	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		179	0	200	776	243	72	27	0%	1.1	31.2%	9.8%	21.4%	3.4%	2.63	3.56	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		168	1	197	880	221	159	30	1%	1.2	25.1%	18.1%	7.0%	3.4%	4.97	5.14	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		170	1	200	892	224	161	30	1%	1.2	25.1%	18.1%	7.0%	3.4%	4.97	5.14	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 9 IPFIP 4.70 → 4.60 (−0.10)K% 17.8% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.78%	—	×0.860	15.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	24.44%	—	×0.900	22.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.70 → 4.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAReading Fightin Phils · 36 IPFIP 5.03 → 6.00 (+0.97)K% 26.2% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.25%	—	×0.810	21.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.75%	—	×1.100	15.13%
HR / BF /BF	4.38%	÷1.036	×1.200	5.07%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 5.03 → 6.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 6 IPFIP 4.31 → 4.28 (−0.02)K% 28.6% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.860	24.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	28.57%	—	×0.900	25.71%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.947	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 4.31 → 4.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 31 IPFIP 5.76 → 6.31 (+0.55)K% 24.5% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.50%	—	×0.860	21.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.22%	—	×0.900	15.50%
HR / BF /BF	4.64%	÷0.925	×1.100	5.51%

Result: FIP 5.76 → 6.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 21 IPFIP 1.69 → 2.46 (+0.77)K% 37.0% → 30.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.04%	—	×0.810	30.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.58%	—	×1.100	14.94%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.872	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.69 → 2.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 20 IPFIP 0.74 → 2.10 (+1.36)K% 51.9% → 40.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	51.95%	—	×0.770	40.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.39%	—	×1.150	11.95%
HR / BF /BF	1.30%	÷1.033	×1.250	1.57%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 0.74 → 2.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AColumbia Fireflies · 11 IPFIP 0.74 → 2.13 (+1.39)K% 48.8% → 36.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	48.84%	—	×0.740	36.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.95%	—	×1.180	16.47%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.089	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 118).

Result: FIP 0.74 → 2.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AColumbia Fireflies · 31 IPFIP 4.55 → 5.92 (+1.38)K% 30.8% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.82%	—	×0.740	22.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	26.03%	—	×1.180	30.71%
HR / BF /BF	1.37%	÷1.140	×1.300	1.56%

Result: FIP 4.55 → 5.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
John McMillon (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.05	22.9%	13.3%	3.3%	—	5.15	22.6%	9.4%	17	+0.10	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	81
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	80
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	79
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	79
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	77
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	76
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	76
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	75
Jose Veras R 2010 · 4.10 FIP	29	SU	4.10	26.9%	14.4%	2.6%	.239	3.42	25.3%	14.8%	201	-0.68	3.37	422	75
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	75
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	74
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	74
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.49	22.0%	0.2%	51	+0.40	4.09	130	74
Brian Sanches R 2008 · 4.74 FIP	29	SU	4.74	18.5%	9.3%	3.7%	.378	4.01	20.5%	10.8%	182	-0.73	3.39	229	74
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	73
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	73
Art Warren R 2022 · 4.51 FIP	29	SU	4.51	24.2%	12.7%	3.4%	.316	6.77	18.2%	3.7%	27	+2.26	1.40	322	72
Scott Dohmann R 2007 · 4.28 FIP	29	SU	4.28	19.1%	12.5%	2.2%	.289	4.38	18.2%	9.1%	15	+0.10	4.28	173	72
Jake Cousins R 2023 · 4.38 FIP	29	SU	4.38	27.3%	11.4%	3.9%	.379	3.42	34.2%	21.9%	38	-0.96	1.11	160	72
Cristofer Ogando R 2022 · 4.90 FIP	28	SU	4.90	20.6%	11.6%	3.8%	.236	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	179	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	26.1%	11.9%	1.30	4.04
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Colin Poche ('25)	1.1	54	26.7%	10.2%	1.32	4.01
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*