Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | ACL Brewers Gold | 11 | 9 | 37 | 180 | 53 | 34 | 3 | 82% | 3.4 | 20.0% | 23.6% | -3.6% | 2.5% | 6.75 | 5.78 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | ACL Brewers Gold | 11 | 9 | 37 | 180 | 53 | 34 | 3 | 82% | 3.4 | 29.4% | 18.9% | 10.6% | 1.7% | 6.75 | 4.04 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 4 | 30 | 148 | 35 | 25 | 0 | 31% | 2.3 | 17.0% | 17.1% | -0.1% | 0.0% | 7.12 | 3.84 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 4 | 30 | 148 | 35 | 25 | 0 | 31% | 2.3 | 23.6% | 16.9% | 6.8% | 0.0% | 7.12 | 3.26 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 28 | 0 | 36 | 157 | 40 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 18.9% | 15.0% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 4.00 | 4.21 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 28 | 0 | 36 | 157 | 40 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.5% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 1.3% | 4.00 | 3.27 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 41 | 0 | 50 | 247 | 71 | 50 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.1% | 23.3% | -1.1% | 2.1% | 5.94 | 5.34 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 41 | 0 | 50 | 247 | 71 | 50 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.7% | 20.2% | 8.5% | 1.6% | 5.94 | 4.30 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 43 | 0 | 56 | 269 | 83 | 57 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.8% | 24.4% | -0.6% | 1.2% | 5.30 | 4.86 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 43 | 0 | 56 | 269 | 83 | 57 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 30.9% | 21.2% | 9.7% | 1.5% | 5.30 | 4.12 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 25 | 0 | 26 | 137 | 35 | 32 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 26.9% | -7.2% | 0.9% | 5.81 | 5.34 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIL | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 100 | 87 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.4% | 22.8% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 5.51 | 5.51 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 26.4% | 22.8% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 5.51 | 5.51 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 116 | 517 | 135 | 119 | 10 | — | — | 26.2% | 23.0% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 5.58 | 5.47 | -0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 26.4% | 22.8% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 5.51 | 5.13 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 87 | 0 | 91 | 385 | 106 | 75 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.6% | 19.4% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 5.15 | 4.99 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 87 | 0 | 91 | 385 | 109 | 71 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.3% | 18.5% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 4.94 | 4.84 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 85 | 0 | 90 | 379 | 106 | 68 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.9% | 18.0% | 9.9% | 2.6% | 4.88 | 4.85 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 45 | 32 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.6% | 19.4% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 5.15 | 4.99 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 73 | 48 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.3% | 18.5% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 4.94 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 81 | 53 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.9% | 18.0% | 9.9% | 2.6% | 4.88 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 161 | 0 | 170 | 716 | 200 | 133 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.0% | 18.5% | 9.4% | 2.6% | 4.97 | 4.50 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 236 | 157 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.0% | 18.5% | 9.4% | 2.6% | 4.97 | 4.50 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 161 | 13 | 236 | 1138 | 236 | 251 | 17 | 8% | 1.5 | 20.8% | 22.1% | -1.3% | 1.5% | 5.76 | 4.95 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 136 | 11 | 200 | 964 | 200 | 213 | 14 | 8% | 1.5 | 20.8% | 22.1% | -1.3% | 1.5% | 5.76 | 4.95 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yerlin Rodriguez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.51 | 26.4% | 22.8% | 2.5% | — | 4.89 | 27.9% | 9.3% | 272 | -0.62 | — | — | — |
| Caleb Simpson R 2027 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 23.7% | 17.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.98 | 23.5% | 5.1% | 71 | -1.37 | 3.28 | 197 | 83 |
| Craig Schlitter R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.76 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .298 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | -0.32 | 4.07 | 222 | 81 |
| Eric Cerantola R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.74 | 25.8% | 17.0% | 3.1% | .245 | 3.95 | 26.8% | 13.8% | 111 | -0.79 | 3.53 | 281 | 80 |
| Wyatt Olds R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.59 | 24.7% | 16.1% | 2.8% | .284 | 4.92 | 24.4% | 9.4% | 110 | +0.33 | 2.39 | 372 | 80 |
| Gabriel Ponce R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.73 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 3.1% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 161 | 79 |
| Andrew McInvale R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.90 | 26.4% | 16.3% | 3.6% | .278 | 5.86 | 20.3% | 5.0% | 58 | +0.96 | 4.90 | 103 | 79 |
| Dakota Mekkes R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 23.1% | 15.4% | 2.6% | .290 | 4.81 | 16.7% | 1.8% | 70 | +0.30 | 2.99 | 246 | 79 |
| Eduardo Herrera R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.32 | 25.5% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .284 | 4.44 | 16.7% | -5.0% | 31 | +0.12 | 4.32 | 127 | 79 |
| Ryan Sublette R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.61 | 21.4% | 22.3% | 2.7% | .278 | 5.16 | 19.4% | 2.8% | 102 | -0.45 | 3.73 | 203 | 79 |
| Magnus Ellerts R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.52 | 26.3% | 19.3% | 2.2% | .319 | 4.72 | 25.2% | 2.3% | 17 | +0.20 | 3.51 | 156 | 79 |
| Zane Russell R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.19 | 22.7% | 18.3% | 3.1% | .314 | 5.10 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 71 | -0.09 | 4.28 | 108 | 78 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.88 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .327 | 4.57 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 163 | -0.31 | 3.44 | 224 | 78 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.92 | 19.6% | 18.4% | 2.1% | .305 | 4.56 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 184 | -0.36 | 3.34 | 334 | 78 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 78 |
| Pat Light R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 20.9% | 14.5% | 2.1% | .270 | 4.39 | 16.4% | 2.8% | 110 | +0.05 | 4.11 | 172 | 78 |
| Riley Ferrell R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 2.5% | .333 | 4.28 | 23.1% | 7.4% | 55 | -0.15 | 2.83 | 175 | 78 |
| Jacob Webb R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.50 | 19.8% | 15.3% | 2.1% | .283 | 4.49 | 19.0% | 8.6% | 139 | -0.01 | 3.34 | 252 | 77 |
| Noah Murdock R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.72 | 19.8% | 17.1% | 2.1% | .314 | 3.29 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 130 | -1.43 | 2.48 | 292 | 77 |
| Andre Granillo R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 24.9% | 15.4% | 2.5% | .228 | 4.07 | 22.6% | 12.7% | 104 | -0.27 | 3.18 | 306 | 77 |
| Antonio Knowles R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.9% | 15.1% | 2.3% | .250 | 3.13 | 21.9% | 13.9% | 61 | -1.38 | 2.73 | 218 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 90 | 27.6% | 19.7% | 0.99 | 5.12 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |