Tyler Vogel
P
Richmond Flying Squirrels
Age 25
RHP
5'11" / 180 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 110
ERA4.84
FIP4.84
K%19.6%
BB%11.6%
K-BB%8.1%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 104 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | ACL Giants Black | 4 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.6 | 11.8% | 29.4% | -17.6% | 0.0% | 11.57 | 5.83 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | ACL Giants Black | 4 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.6 | 11.8% | 29.4% | -17.6% | 0.0% | 11.57 | 7.81 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | San Jose Giants | 39 | 0 | 65 | 281 | 89 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.7 | 23.4% | 14.3% | 9.2% | 4.1% | 4.27 | 5.21 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | San Jose Giants | 39 | 0 | 65 | 281 | 89 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.7 | 31.7% | 12.1% | 19.6% | 2.5% | 4.27 | 3.33 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 2 | 29 | 130 | 29 | 15 | 3 | 11% | 1.5 | 15.1% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.99 | 5.19 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 2 | 29 | 130 | 29 | 15 | 3 | 11% | 1.5 | 22.3% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 2.3% | 3.99 | 3.99 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 59 | 263 | 67 | 27 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.4% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 1.9% | 2.88 | 3.83 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 59 | 263 | 67 | 27 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 25.5% | 10.3% | 15.2% | 1.5% | 2.88 | 3.08 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 28 | 0 | 34 | 150 | 39 | 23 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.1% | 16.9% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 2.36 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SF | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 58 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 11.6% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.84 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SF | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 11.6% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.84 | 4.84 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | SF | — | — | 104 | 446 | 97 | 57 | 11 | — | — | 21.8% | 12.8% | 8.9% | 2.5% | 4.02 | 4.82 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | SF | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 19.6% | 11.6% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.84 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SF | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.77 | 4.76 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SF | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 4.77 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SF | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 26 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.77 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SF | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 38 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 72 | 0 | 76 | 320 | 65 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.76 | 4.39 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 171 | 95 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.76 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 130 | 2 | 191 | 841 | 173 | 115 | 25 | 2% | 1.5 | 20.5% | 13.7% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 3.54 | 4.71 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 136 | 2 | 200 | 882 | 181 | 121 | 26 | 2% | 1.5 | 20.5% | 13.7% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 3.54 | 4.71 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Vogel (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.84 | 19.6% | 11.6% | 2.8% | — | 4.76 | 20.3% | 9.1% | 139 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Nolan Riggs R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 90 |
| David Goforth R 2027 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.47 | 3.92 | 256 | 89 |
| Chase Plymell R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.21 | 19.2% | 13.0% | 2.0% | .330 | 4.58 | 14.2% | 5.4% | 162 | +0.37 | 3.79 | 291 | 88 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.24 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .286 | 6.43 | 14.1% | 7.0% | 24 | +2.19 | 4.09 | 183 | 88 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.36 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.39 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.36 | 152 | 88 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 88 |
| Dylan Hall R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.02 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 1.9% | .305 | 7.93 | 15.1% | 2.4% | 58 | +3.91 | 3.54 | 153 | 88 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.14 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .331 | 4.88 | 18.1% | 8.6% | 167 | +0.74 | 3.34 | 334 | 87 |
| Cody Tucker R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.98 | 22.0% | 12.0% | 4.0% | .272 | 5.11 | 15.8% | -1.9% | 40 | +0.13 | 4.98 | 105 | 87 |
| Scott Oberg R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.71 | 17.0% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .273 | 2.80 | 22.8% | 15.6% | 188 | -1.91 | 2.42 | 302 | 87 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 106 | 87 |
| Ben Hecht R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | .293 | 7.95 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.39 | 4.55 | 155 | 87 |
| Jordan Milbrath R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.04 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 2.4% | .272 | 3.57 | 19.6% | 9.7% | 129 | -0.47 | 3.26 | 386 | 87 |
| Merrick Baldo R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.55 | 18.3% | 12.3% | 2.6% | .299 | 3.57 | 14.7% | 8.1% | 38 | -0.98 | 2.69 | 154 | 87 |
| Jason Ruffcorn R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.23 | 17.8% | 10.7% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.45 | 19.6% | 9.2% | 141 | +0.22 | 3.97 | 248 | 87 |
| Ryan Ledbetter R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.63 | 18.5% | 12.3% | 2.8% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.63 | 124 | 87 |
| Grant Hartwig R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.85 | 21.2% | 10.8% | 2.1% | .330 | 4.04 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 96 | +0.19 | 2.54 | 214 | 87 |
| Nick Ernst R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 86 |
| Confesor Lara R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.32 | 16.4% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 111 | 86 |
| Héctor Neris R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.09 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 2.7% | .298 | 3.09 | 31.5% | 23.7% | 221 | -1.00 | 1.97 | 682 | 86 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 70 | 20.1% | 11.4% | 1.10 | 4.79 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |