Tyler Vogel
P
Richmond Flying Squirrels
+0.2
WAR
Age 25
RHP
5'11" / 180 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.9%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%12.0%
IP48
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL4040
CMD4545
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | ACL Giants Black | 4 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 11.57 | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | San Jose Giants | 39 | 0 | 65 | 281 | 89 | 34 | 7 | 23.4% | 14.3% | 3.5% | 4.27 | 4.87 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 19 | 2 | 29 | 130 | 29 | 15 | 3 | 15.1% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 3.99 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 40 | 0 | 59 | 263 | 67 | 27 | 4 | 20.4% | 11.0% | 1.9% | 2.88 | 3.84 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 5 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 8 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SF | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 44 | 22 | 6 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 4.60 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | SF | — | — | 53 | 228 | 52 | 26 | 6 | 22.6% | 11.5% | 2.5% | 4.17 | 4.17 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SF | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 44 | 22 | 6 | 21.8% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.56 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SF | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 44 | 21 | 6 | 21.9% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SF | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 44 | 21 | 6 | 21.9% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.55 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | SF | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 43 | 21 | 6 | 21.8% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.57 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | SF | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 41 | 20 | 6 | 21.6% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.62 | 4.66 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | SF | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 39 | 20 | 6 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.69 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | SF | 41 | — | 41 | 175 | 37 | 19 | 6 | 21.1% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.77 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | SF | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 35 | 19 | 5 | 20.8% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 4.86 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | SF | 38 | — | 38 | 158 | 32 | 18 | 5 | 20.5% | 11.3% | 3.3% | 4.96 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | SF | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 30 | 17 | 5 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.5% | 5.07 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | SF | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 27 | 16 | 5 | 19.6% | 11.8% | 3.6% | 5.20 | 5.28 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 107 | 2 | 161 | 715 | 149 | 94 | 19 | 20.9% | 13.2% | 2.7% | 3.68 | 4.49 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 133 | 2 | 200 | 886 | 185 | 117 | 24 | 20.9% | 13.2% | 2.7% | 3.68 | 4.49 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Vogel (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.60 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.55 | 21.9% | 11.3% | 143 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.46 | 3.49 | 140 | 90 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 89 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .275 | 4.54 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 230 | 88 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.48 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .289 | 3.53 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -0.95 | 1.94 | 131 | 88 |
| Dylan Hall R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.98 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 1.8% | .305 | 7.30 | 15.1% | 2.4% | 58 | +3.32 | 3.48 | 153 | 87 |
| Cameron Gann R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.37 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.16 | 3.60 | 146 | 87 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 1.7% | .291 | 3.65 | 18.9% | 6.4% | 50 | +0.16 | 3.16 | 153 | 86 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.01 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.17 | 23.4% | 17.9% | 58 | +0.16 | 4.01 | 142 | 86 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .256 | 4.33 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.08 | 3.88 | 180 | 86 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .311 | 5.44 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.41 | 152 | 86 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.83 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .289 | 4.21 | 24.7% | 12.1% | 62 | +0.38 | 3.83 | 181 | 86 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 86 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 85 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.43 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.1% | .286 | 3.56 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.13 | 2.48 | 138 | 85 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 159 | 85 |
| Will Latcham R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.42 | 18.8% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 134 | 85 |
| Jordan Milbrath R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.05 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 2.4% | .272 | 3.60 | 19.6% | 9.7% | 129 | -0.45 | 3.20 | 386 | 84 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 84 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.42 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .279 | 5.32 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.90 | 4.42 | 239 | 84 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 3.0% | .331 | 4.32 | 18.9% | 9.8% | 122 | +0.00 | 3.48 | 290 | 84 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.