Tyler Vogel — OGILVIE

Tyler Vogel P Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 25 RHP 5'11" / 180 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%19.6%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%7.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Black	4	0	2	17	2	5	0	0%	0.6	11.8%	29.4%	-17.6%	0.0%	11.57	5.83	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Black	4	0	2	17	2	5	0	0%	0.6	11.8%	29.4%	-17.6%	0.0%	11.57	7.81	—
2023	22	A MLE	San Jose Giants	39	0	65	281	89	34	7	0%	1.7	23.4%	14.3%	9.2%	3.6%	4.27	4.93	—
2023	22	A MLE	San Jose Giants	39	0	65	281	89	34	7	0%	1.7	23.4%	14.3%	9.2%	3.6%	4.27	4.93	—
2023	22	A RAW	San Jose Giants	39	0	65	281	89	34	7	0%	1.7	31.7%	12.1%	19.6%	2.5%	4.27	3.33	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	2	29	130	29	15	3	11%	1.5	15.1%	12.3%	2.8%	3.3%	3.99	5.20	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	2	29	130	29	15	3	11%	1.5	15.1%	12.3%	2.8%	3.3%	3.99	5.20	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	2	29	130	29	15	3	11%	1.5	22.3%	11.5%	10.8%	2.3%	3.99	3.99	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	59	263	67	27	4	0%	1.5	20.4%	11.0%	9.4%	1.9%	2.88	3.84	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	59	263	67	27	4	0%	1.5	20.4%	11.0%	9.4%	1.9%	2.88	3.84	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	59	263	67	27	4	0%	1.5	25.5%	10.3%	15.2%	1.5%	2.88	3.08	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	44	0	53	228	55	32	5	0%	1.2	19.5%	15.4%	4.1%	2.6%	3.25	4.85	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	44	0	53	228	55	32	5	0%	1.2	19.5%	15.4%	4.1%	2.6%	3.25	4.85	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	SF	44	0	53	228	55	32	5	0%	1.2	24.1%	14.0%	10.1%	2.2%	3.25	4.04	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	SF	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	19.6%	12.3%	7.3%	2.8%	4.93	4.93	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	59	253	60	35	6	—	—	23.7%	13.9%	9.8%	2.3%	3.42	4.86	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	SF	67	0	70	296	60	35	8	0%	1.0	20.2%	12.0%	8.2%	2.8%	4.86	4.85	-0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	SF	66	0	69	291	60	35	8	0%	1.0	20.4%	11.9%	8.6%	2.9%	4.84	4.85	-0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	SF	64	0	67	282	58	34	8	0%	1.0	20.5%	11.9%	8.6%	3.0%	4.87	4.91	-0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	SF	61	0	64	270	55	33	9	0%	1.0	20.3%	12.0%	8.3%	3.2%	4.96	5.02	-0.3
2027	26	MLB CTX	SF	30	0	31	131	26	16	4	0%	1.0	20.2%	12.0%	8.2%	2.8%	4.86	4.85	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	SF	42	0	44	186	38	22	5	0%	1.0	20.4%	11.9%	8.6%	2.9%	4.84	4.85	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	SF	49	0	51	215	44	26	6	0%	1.0	20.5%	11.9%	8.6%	3.0%	4.87	4.91	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	SF	50	0	52	220	45	26	7	0%	1.0	20.3%	12.0%	8.3%	3.2%	4.96	5.02	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		169	0	177	748	152	89	22	0%	1.0	20.4%	12.0%	8.4%	3.0%	4.89	4.54	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	172	100	25	0%	1.1	20.4%	12.0%	8.4%	3.0%	4.89	4.54	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		146	2	209	919	186	125	26	1%	1.4	20.2%	13.6%	6.6%	2.8%	3.66	4.65	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	2	200	879	178	120	25	1%	1.4	20.2%	13.6%	6.6%	2.8%	3.66	4.65	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Vogel (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	19.6%	12.3%	2.8%	—	4.87	20.4%	8.5%	206	-0.06	—	—	—
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	93
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	91
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.53	13.6%	5.9%	162	+0.30	3.85	291	89
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	88
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	88
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	88
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	88
Gonzalez Germen R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	27	SU	4.24	18.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.296	3.88	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.36	3.70	146	88
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	88
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	87
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	87
David Goforth R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	26	SU	3.98	17.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.287	4.58	14.1%	3.6%	184	+0.60	3.98	256	87
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	87
Ryan Ledbetter R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	24	SU	4.76	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.76	124	87
Scott Oberg R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	17.0%	11.2%	3.4%	.273	2.92	22.8%	15.6%	188	-2.04	2.54	302	87
José Ramírez R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SU	3.99	19.5%	12.2%	1.8%	.312	3.91	22.4%	11.8%	136	-0.08	3.36	206	86
Pat Light R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	25	SU	4.10	21.1%	13.1%	2.1%	.276	4.63	11.8%	-2.3%	55	+0.53	4.10	172	86
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	86
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	86
Taylor Floyd R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	25	SU	4.34	21.7%	10.8%	3.1%	.331	4.61	18.4%	8.9%	192	+0.27	3.48	359	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	20.2%	12.0%	1.14	4.89
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77