Jose Rivas — OGILVIE

Jose RivasC DSL LAD Mega

Age 18 R/R 5'11" / 170 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION77 act + 51 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+63

AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .292 / .259

PA51

HR0

K%23

BB%8

BABIP291

ISO43

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.9	$10M	+$9M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+2.0	$9M	+$9M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+2.0	$9M	+$8M
2035	Arb-1	$4M	+2.0	$8M	+$7M
2036	Arb-2	$6M	+1.9	$7M	+$5M
2037	Arb-3	$8M	+1.7	$6M	+$3M
Totals		$21M		$49M	+$41M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL LAD Mega	—	106	92	21	3	0	0	11	20	2	7	1	228	324	261	585	33	288	19	10	265	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL LAD Mega	—	106	85	24	4	0	0	18	13	2	7	1	282	419	329	748	47	329	12	17	352	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	18	ROK	DSL LAD Mega	—	77	66	14	2	0	0	6	14	3	2	3	212	307	242	549	30	264	18	8	245	46	-5	-1	+0	+1	+2	-0.2
YTD	18	ROK	DSL LAD Mega	—	77	62	17	3	0	0	10	10	3	2	3	274	400	323	723	48	321	13	13	334	114	+1	-1	+0	+1	+2	0.4
ROS	18	ROK	—	0%	51	46	10	2	0	0	4	12	1	1	0	216	292	259	551	43	284	23	8	267	63	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
ROS	18	MLB	—	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		284	—	—	267	63	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	18	ROK	—	—	77	67	14	2	0	0	6	14	3	2	3	209	307	239	545	30	259	18	8	245	46	-5	-1	+0	+1	+2	-0.2
TOT	18	ROK	—	—	128	112	24	4	0	0	10	26	4	3	3	214	301	249	550	36	275	20	8	254	53	-7	-1	+0	+2	+4	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	—	34%	183	163	37	6	1	2	15	42	3	3	1	227	304	313	617	86	286	23	8	278	71	-6	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.3
2028	20	MLB	—	48%	324	289	66	11	2	4	26	73	6	5	2	228	305	322	627	93	288	23	8	287	78	-8	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.7
2029	21	MLB	—	54%	431	385	90	15	2	7	35	96	8	7	3	234	311	338	648	104	290	22	8	293	83	-9	+0	+0	+8	+12	1.2
2030	22	MLB	—	57%	507	451	105	17	2	9	42	113	9	8	3	233	311	339	650	106	291	22	8	297	86	-8	+0	+0	+9	+14	1.6
2031	23	MLB	—	58%	520	463	110	18	2	10	43	115	9	8	3	238	315	350	664	112	292	22	8	300	88	-7	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.8
2032	24	MLB	—	57%	520	463	110	18	2	10	43	115	9	8	3	238	315	350	664	112	292	22	8	303	90	-6	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.9
2033	25	MLB	—	57%	520	463	111	18	2	11	43	114	9	8	3	240	317	359	675	119	293	22	8	304	91	-5	+0	+0	+9	+15	2.0
2034	26	MLB	—	57%	520	463	111	18	2	11	43	114	9	8	3	240	317	359	675	119	292	22	8	305	92	-5	+0	+0	+9	+15	2.0
2035	27	MLB	—	55%	520	462	110	18	2	11	44	115	9	8	3	238	317	357	674	119	292	22	8	305	92	-5	+0	+0	+9	+15	2.0
2036	28	MLB	—	55%	520	462	110	18	2	11	44	115	9	8	3	238	317	357	674	119	292	22	8	304	91	-5	+0	-1	+9	+15	1.9
2037	29	MLB	—	53%	520	461	109	18	2	10	45	116	9	7	3	236	317	349	666	113	291	22	9	302	90	-6	+0	-1	+9	+15	1.7
2038	30	MLB	—	53%	520	461	108	17	2	10	45	118	9	6	2	234	315	345	659	111	290	23	9	300	87	-7	+0	-2	+9	+15	1.5
2039	31	MLB	—	52%	504	447	103	16	2	9	43	116	9	5	2	230	311	336	646	105	287	23	9	295	84	-9	+0	-3	+9	+14	1.2
2040	32	MLB	—	56%	489	436	99	15	2	9	42	114	8	4	2	227	307	333	639	106	284	23	9	290	80	-11	+0	-4	+9	+14	0.8
2041	33	MLB	—	59%	473	422	93	14	2	8	40	113	8	3	1	220	300	320	620	100	280	24	8	283	75	-13	+0	-4	+8	+13	0.5
2042	34	MLB	—	54%	432	385	83	12	2	7	37	106	7	2	1	216	296	312	608	96	275	25	9	275	69	-15	+0	-5	+8	+12	-0.0
2043	35	MLB	—	50%	370	330	67	9	1	5	31	93	6	1	0	203	283	282	565	79	269	25	8	266	62	-16	+0	-6	+7	+10	-0.4
2027	19	MLB	—	34%	63	57	13	2	0	1	5	14	1	1	0	228	302	316	617	88	286	22	8	278	71	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2028	20	MLB	—	48%	157	140	32	5	1	2	13	35	3	2	1	229	308	321	629	93	288	22	8	287	78	-4	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.3
2029	21	MLB	—	54%	234	209	49	8	1	4	19	52	4	4	1	234	310	340	650	105	290	22	8	293	83	-5	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.7
2030	22	MLB	—	57%	287	256	60	10	1	5	24	64	5	4	2	234	312	340	652	105	291	22	8	297	86	-5	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.9
2031	23	MLB	—	58%	299	267	63	10	1	6	25	66	5	5	2	236	313	348	661	112	292	22	8	300	88	-4	+0	+0	+5	+8	1.0
2032	24	MLB	—	57%	296	264	62	10	1	6	25	65	5	5	2	235	313	348	661	114	292	22	8	303	90	-3	+0	+0	+5	+8	1.1
2033	25	MLB	—	57%	295	263	62	10	1	6	25	65	5	5	2	236	314	350	664	114	293	22	8	304	91	-3	+0	+0	+5	+8	1.1
2034	26	MLB	—	57%	294	262	62	10	1	6	25	65	5	5	2	237	315	351	666	115	292	22	9	305	92	-3	+0	+0	+5	+8	1.1
2035	27	MLB	—	55%	289	258	61	10	1	6	24	64	5	4	2	236	314	353	666	116	292	22	8	305	92	-3	+0	+0	+5	+8	1.1
2036	28	MLB	—	55%	286	255	61	10	1	6	24	63	5	4	2	239	317	357	674	118	292	22	8	304	91	-3	+0	-0	+5	+8	1.0
2037	29	MLB	—	53%	278	247	58	9	1	6	24	62	5	4	1	235	315	352	667	117	291	22	9	302	90	-3	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.9
2038	30	MLB	—	53%	274	243	56	9	1	5	24	62	5	3	1	230	312	337	650	107	290	23	9	300	87	-4	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.8
2039	31	MLB	—	52%	263	233	54	9	1	5	23	60	5	3	1	232	314	343	658	112	287	23	9	295	84	-5	+0	-1	+5	+7	0.6
2040	32	MLB	—	56%	275	244	56	9	1	5	24	64	5	2	1	230	311	336	647	107	284	23	9	290	80	-6	+0	-2	+5	+8	0.5
2041	33	MLB	—	59%	279	248	55	8	1	5	24	67	5	2	1	222	303	323	626	101	280	24	9	283	75	-8	+0	-2	+5	+8	0.3
2042	34	MLB	—	54%	235	209	45	6	1	4	20	58	4	1	0	215	296	311	607	96	275	25	9	275	69	-8	+0	-3	+4	+7	0.0
2043	35	MLB	—	50%	185	165	35	5	1	3	15	47	3	1	0	212	290	309	599	97	269	25	8	266	62	-8	+0	-3	+3	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4289	3821	884	140	16	81	363	973	75	55	21	231	310	340	650	109	289	23	8	295	84	-76	+3	-14	+77	+122	11.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	133	21	2	12	55	147	11	8	3	230	308	335	643	105	287	23	8	295	84	-12	+0	-2	+12	+18	1.7
Career	—			—	8030	7144	1653	263	32	144	676	1820	139	107	39	231	310	338	648	106	289	23	8	295	84	-149	+6	-25	+143	+228	20.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	134	21	3	12	55	147	11	9	3	232	311	341	651	109	288	23	8	295	84	-12	+1	-2	+12	+18	1.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL LAD Mega	—	106	85	24	4	0	0	18	13	2	7	1	282	419	329	748	47	329	12	17	352	127	+3	+1	—	—	+3	0.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	11	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.6	16.1
	/162	664	11	2	241	318	351	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Brad Ausmuslast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA	11	4,296	39	39	244	319	326	+39	+43	12.4	12.0
	/162	664	6	6	244	319	326	+6.1	+6.6	1.9	pk7: 12
#4Dioner Navarrolast yr '16 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,544 PA	12	3,544	77	14	250	308	370	+63	-1	12.1	11.6
	/162	664	14	3	250	308	370	+11.9	-0.2	2.3	pk7: 11
#5Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	10	4,379	79	56	233	308	341	+72	+40	12.0	9.8
	/162	664	12	9	233	308	341	+10.9	+6.1	1.8	pk7: 8
#6Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jose Rivas (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	214/301/249	36	275	0	3	20%	8%	53	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Victor Heredia 2018 · A	18	45	38→50	49→30	42	211/275/293	82	307	6	6	31%	7%	57	-1.2	221/268/323	102	290	9	4	26%	5%	62	-0.9	221/264/326	105	281	10	1	25%	4%	63	-0.3
✕Ricardo Cova 2022 · A	18	44	38→50	47→55	44	212/278/287	75	273	6	9	24%	6%	57	-1.2	209/268/294	85	323	7	15	35%	6%	55	-1.4	235/286/365	130	286	14	20	22%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Victor Rodrigues 2023 · A	18	41	38→30	49→50	44	197/261/279	83	254	5	7	24%	6%	49	-1.8	211/290/283	72	267	5	9	21%	9%	62	-0.9	219/316/271	52	272	4	10	19%	11%	68	-0.2
✕Aroon Escobar 2023 · A	18	43→46	38→45	47→55	49	203/297/279	76	256	6	12	22%	8%	66	-0.6	211/299/308	97	254	9	16	20%	9%	72	-0.2	216/299/322	106	259	12	19	21%	8%	75	-0.0
✕Luis Torrens 2014 · A	18	42→47	36→55	49→30	45	196/262/257	61	277	3	5	29%	8%	43	-2.2	204/277/283	79	275	6	5	26%	8%	56	-1.3	231/286/395	164	298	21	0	29%	7%	87	+0.4
✕Eddys Leonard 2019 · A	18	41→47	41→55	48→50	48	200/282/301	101	267	9	14	27%	9%	64	-0.8	211/283/328	117	302	11	8	32%	8%	71	-0.3	225/292/378	153	293	18	4	28%	6%	84	+0.6
✕Ronaldo Hernández 2016 · A	18	44	37→55	50→45	43	208/271/281	73	270	4	6	23%	6%	53	-1.5	241/286/357	116	275	12	5	17%	5%	79	+0.3	241/284/373	131	274	16	5	18%	5%	80	+0.2
●Dilson Herrera 2012 · A	18	46→56	39→50	50	47	218/290/315	98	283	4	13	23%	7%	70	-0.3	228/279/361	133	299	12	12	27%	6%	77	+0.1	258/308/400	143	315	15	13	23%	6%	96	+1.3
✕Ricky Cabrera 2023 · A	18	42→44	37→45	47→60	37	197/271/278	80	298	4	8	33%	5%	53	-1.5	219/295/319	100	315	8	15	31%	6%	74	-0.1	224/303/332	108	321	10	20	31%	6%	76	+0.1
✕Edward Duran 2022 · A	18	49→45	37→40	49→50	46	231/297/312	81	291	3	9	21%	7%	72	-0.2	217/290/287	70	281	2	8	22%	8%	63	-0.9	225/304/305	79	304	5	8	25%	8%	70	-0.2
✕Juan Mora 2019 · A	19	45	38→45	46→55	49	211/291/293	83	275	4	8	23%	9%	65	-0.7	213/293/327	114	268	10	14	23%	8%	75	-0.0	214/280/327	113	274	11	12	25%	6%	67	-0.2
✕Jose Astudillo 2022 · A	18	43	37→30	52→50	46	204/257/278	73	249	3	9	19%	6%	46	-2.0	230/283/304	74	270	3	15	15%	6%	63	-0.9	293/336/390	97	320	8	19	10%	4%	104	+0.6
✕Andrés Nolaya 2023 · A	18	41	35→45	44→55	47	190/278/250	60	289	2	10	32%	10%	49	-1.8	189/258/257	68	296	3	15	34%	8%	41	-2.3	194/269/271	76	278	5	22	30%	7%	48	-0.6
✕Luis Alvarez 2008 · A	18	43	39→45	45	45	208/273/291	82	251	7	4	20%	6%	56	-1.3	229/300/339	110	282	10	5	21%	7%	81	+0.4	228/295/347	119	269	13	3	20%	6%	77	+0.0
✕Jorge Mateo 2013 · A	18	44→46	40→50	51→65	48	211/282/302	91	281	6	10	26%	9%	63	-0.9	210/268/306	96	286	7	34	27%	7%	58	-1.2	222/263/355	133	288	13	49	27%	5%	66	-0.2
✕Ramon Mendoza 2019 · A	18	46→51	41→45	48→45	46	220/292/328	108	287	7	4	25%	7%	74	-0.1	209/280/297	88	296	5	4	29%	7%	61	-1.0	232/306/347	116	310	11	3	27%	9%	82	+0.3
✕Francisco Herrera 2012 · A	18	46	40→45	47→30	49	220/280/315	95	261	7	8	19%	7%	66	-0.6	225/284/324	99	267	9	5	19%	6%	69	-0.4	225/284/320	95	260	10	3	17%	6%	67	-0.2
✕Hector Osorio 2023 · A	18	47	37→45	47→50	48	219/301/296	77	303	4	8	27%	9%	70	-0.3	210/316/279	69	269	4	14	21%	11%	73	-0.1	220/318/345	125	249	16	10	18%	10%	88	+0.4
●Ramón Urías 2012 · A	18	42→52	37→50	47→50	46	199/275/269	70	250	4	6	21%	6%	53	-1.5	210/273/284	74	251	4	6	17%	5%	55	-1.4	261/328/377	117	313	12	14	20%	5%	99	+1.0
✕Gilberto Celestino 2017 · A	18	43→53	38→45	54→55	48	203/273/292	90	270	5	13	25%	8%	56	-1.3	209/261/295	86	283	6	11	27%	6%	52	-1.6	240/311/319	79	317	7	14	25%	9%	75	-0.0