Jose Rivas

C DSL LAD Mega

Age 19 R/R 5'11" / 170 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#810ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKDSL LAD Mega	106	.282/.419/.329	0	7	57	—	.200/.314/.233
2026	18	ROKDSL LAD Mega	126	.320/.447/.360	0	2	64	—	.226/.333/.255
2027PROJMLE	19	MLB—	236	.235/.311/.304	2	4	77	0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLB—	41	.238/.315/.317	0	1	82	0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLB—	105	.241/.318/.328	1	2	86	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

K%96

Whiff%82

wOBA73

Chase%70

wRC+61

BB%53

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsRubén Tejada (age 18) · Isiah Kiner-Falefa (age 19) · Euribiel Angeles (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 66 proj PA

wRC+77

AVG/OBP/SLG.233 / .308 / .302

PA66

HR0

K%22

BB%9

ISO69

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$35M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 73 / POW 33

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT73

scouting grade only

POWER33

scouting grade only

EYE67

scouting grade only

SPEED54

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2036	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.3M
2037	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$9M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL LAD Mega	—	106	85	24	4	0	0	18	13	2	7	1	282	419	329	748	47	329	12	17	352	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL LAD Mega	—	126	100	32	4	0	0	20	12	3	2	3	320	447	360	807	40	356	10	16	370	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	—	106	90	18	3	0	0	13	17	2	7	1	200	314	233	548	33	234	16	12	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	—	126	106	24	3	0	0	14	15	3	2	3	226	333	255	588	28	239	12	11	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	—	106	90	18	3	0	0	13	17	2	7	1	200	314	233	548	33	243	16	12	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	—	106	85	24	4	0	0	18	13	2	7	1	282	419	329	748	47	329	12	17	352	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	—	126	106	24	3	0	0	14	15	3	2	3	226	333	255	588	28	258	12	11	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	—	126	100	32	4	0	0	20	12	3	2	3	320	447	360	807	40	356	10	16	370	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	—	106	90	18	3	0	0	13	17	2	7	1	200	314	233	548	33	234	16	12	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	—	126	108	24	3	0	0	14	15	3	2	3	222	333	250	583	28	239	12	11	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	—	106	90	18	3	0	0	13	17	2	7	1	200	314	233	548	33	234	16	12	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	—	126	108	24	3	0	0	14	15	3	2	3	222	333	250	583	28	239	12	11	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	—	0%	236	210	49	7	1	2	21	52	3	4	1	235	311	304	615	69	302	22	9	283	77	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	—	34%	120	106	26	4	1	1	11	26	2	2	1	238	315	317	632	79	303	22	9	289	82	-3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.2
2029	21	MLB MLE	—	48%	217	193	46	7	1	2	19	47	3	4	1	241	318	328	646	87	303	22	9	295	86	-4	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2030	22	MLB MLE	—	54%	329	293	71	11	2	4	29	71	4	7	2	243	320	337	657	94	304	22	9	299	88	-5	+1	+0	+6	+7	0.9
2031	23	MLB MLE	—	57%	408	364	89	14	2	6	36	88	5	9	3	244	321	344	666	100	304	22	9	302	91	-5	+1	+0	+7	+9	1.2
2032	24	MLB MLE	—	57%	445	397	97	15	2	7	39	96	6	9	3	246	322	350	673	105	304	22	9	305	92	-4	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.4
2033	25	MLB MLE	—	57%	445	397	96	15	2	7	39	96	6	9	3	246	323	352	675	106	304	22	9	305	93	-4	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.5
2034	26	MLB MLE	—	56%	445	397	96	15	2	7	39	96	6	9	3	246	323	353	675	107	304	22	9	306	93	-4	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.5
2035	27	MLB MLE	—	55%	445	397	96	15	2	7	39	97	6	9	3	245	322	350	672	105	304	22	9	304	92	-4	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.4
2036	28	MLB MLE	—	55%	445	398	96	15	2	7	39	98	5	8	3	243	320	345	665	102	303	22	9	302	90	-5	+0	-1	+8	+10	1.2
2037	29	MLB MLE	—	53%	445	398	96	15	2	7	39	99	5	8	3	241	317	339	656	98	302	22	9	298	88	-6	+0	-1	+8	+10	1.0
2038	30	MLB MLE	—	53%	445	398	94	14	2	6	39	101	5	8	3	238	314	331	645	93	300	23	9	293	85	-8	+0	-2	+8	+10	0.8
2039	31	MLB MLE	—	52%	426	381	89	13	2	5	37	98	5	6	4	234	309	321	630	87	298	23	9	287	81	-10	-0	-3	+8	+9	0.4
2040	32	MLB MLE	—	52%	407	365	84	12	2	5	35	95	4	5	6	229	303	309	612	80	294	23	9	280	76	-12	-1	-4	+7	+9	-0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	—	34%	41	36	8	1	0	0	4	9	1	1	0	238	315	317	632	79	303	22	10	289	82	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	—	48%	105	94	22	3	1	1	9	23	1	2	1	241	318	328	646	87	303	22	9	295	86	-2	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.2
2030	22	MLB CTX	—	54%	178	158	38	6	1	2	16	39	2	4	1	243	320	337	657	94	304	22	9	299	88	-2	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.5
2031	23	MLB CTX	—	57%	231	206	50	8	1	3	20	50	3	5	2	244	321	344	666	100	304	22	9	302	91	-3	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.7
2032	24	MLB CTX	—	57%	252	225	55	9	1	4	22	55	3	5	2	246	322	350	673	105	304	22	9	305	92	-2	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.8
2033	25	MLB CTX	—	57%	251	224	55	9	1	4	22	54	3	5	2	246	323	352	675	106	304	22	9	305	93	-2	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.8
2034	26	MLB CTX	—	56%	251	224	55	9	1	4	22	54	3	5	2	246	323	353	675	107	304	22	9	306	93	-2	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.8
2035	27	MLB CTX	—	55%	247	220	53	8	1	4	22	54	3	5	2	245	322	350	672	105	304	22	9	304	92	-2	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.8
2036	28	MLB CTX	—	55%	244	217	53	8	1	4	22	54	3	5	2	243	320	345	665	102	303	22	9	302	90	-3	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.7
2037	29	MLB CTX	—	53%	238	212	52	8	1	4	21	53	3	4	2	241	317	339	656	98	302	22	9	298	88	-3	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.5
2038	30	MLB CTX	—	53%	234	209	50	8	1	3	20	53	3	4	2	238	314	331	645	93	300	23	9	293	85	-4	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.4
2039	31	MLB CTX	—	52%	222	199	47	7	1	3	19	51	2	3	2	234	309	321	630	87	298	23	9	287	81	-5	-0	-1	+4	+5	0.2
2040	32	MLB CTX	—	52%	211	189	43	6	1	2	18	49	2	3	3	229	303	309	612	80	294	23	9	280	76	-6	-1	-2	+4	+5	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2705	2413	581	90	12	38	237	598	32	51	23	241	317	335	652	94	304	22	9	298	87	-38	+1	-6	+48	+59	6.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	140	22	3	9	57	144	8	12	6	241	318	336	655	95	305	22	9	298	87	-9	+0	-1	+12	+14	1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	5320	4739	1131	173	24	71	473	1155	68	103	42	239	317	330	647	92	299	22	9	296	87	-74	+4	-10	+91	+110	12.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	138	21	3	9	58	141	8	13	5	238	316	332	648	93	299	22	9	296	87	-9	+0	-1	+12	+14	1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL LAD Mega · 126 PAwOBA .368 → .263 (−104)K% 9.5% → 11.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.52%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	11.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.87%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.008	11.19%
HBP% /PA	2.38%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	1.68%
Singles /BIP	31.82%	÷1.000	×0.680	×0.994	×1.008	21.67%
Doubles /BIP	4.55%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.994	×1.008	2.73%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.994	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .368 → .263; ISO .040 → .026; BABIP .356 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL LAD Mega · 106 PAwOBA .347 → .253 (−94)K% 12.3% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.26%	÷0.957	×1.220	—	—	15.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.98%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.022	12.15%
HBP% /PA	1.89%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	1.35%
Singles /BIP	27.78%	÷0.985	×0.680	×1.040	×1.022	20.38%
Doubles /BIP	5.56%	÷1.050	×0.600	×1.040	×1.022	3.37%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.988	×0.600	×1.040	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.011	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 97, 2B 110, 3B 98, K 91, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.

Result: wOBA .347 → .253; ISO .047 → .030; BABIP .329 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Josh Bardlast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,958 PA	2.9	1,958	38	1	252	318	381	+33	+24	10.4	10.4
/162	664	13	0	+11.1	+8.0	3.5	pk7: 11
#3Mike Fitzgerald'83-'92 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,667 PA	4.0	2,667	48	31	234*	320*	372*	+43	-1	9.5	9.3
/162	664	12	8	+10.8	-0.3	2.4	pk7: 9
#4Jorge Alfarolast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,693 PA	2.5	1,693	48	18	254	303	396	+30	+17	9.1	9.1
/162	664	19	7	+11.9	+6.6	3.6	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	4.2	2,772	40	53	242	315	340	+50	+32	8.8	7.6
/162	664	10	13	+11.9	+7.7	2.1	pk7: 6
#5Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7
#6Jake Gibbs'63-'71 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	25	28	244*	299*	362*	+32	+0	5.4	5.4
/162	664	9	10	+11.9	+0.0	2.0	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jose Rivas (OGILVIE)	19	68→73	28→33	49→54	67	233/308/302	69	302	0	1	22%	9%	77	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rubén Tejada 2008 · A	18	51→61	38→40	51→50	50	240/318/319	79	291	5	13	18%	8%	85	+0.2	237/292/307	70	286	3	9	17%	6%	72	-0.7	264/320/329	64	312	2	6	15%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2014 · A	19	51→58	34→40	50→55	44	236/285/290	53	305	2	14	22%	6%	64	-1.3	241/294/285	44	301	1	9	19%	6%	67	-1.1	265/312/343	78	301	6	21	14%	5%	87	+0.3
✕Euribiel Angeles 2022 · A	20	56→62	39→40	51→50	44	263/313/353	91	333	5	13	22%	6%	90	+0.6	245/277/329	84	298	6	13	19%	4%	70	-0.8	243/278/327	84	280	6	17	15%	4%	67	-0.9
●Iván De Jesús Jr. 2007 · A	20	53→63	34→45	48→50	47	248/304/297	49	320	2	10	22%	7%	74	-0.6	274/337/354	80	338	5	10	19%	8%	99	+1.2	278/333/361	83	336	5	9	18%	7%	97	+1.0
✕Ke'Bryan Hayes 2016 · A	19	51→57	35→50	51→50	48	237/305/292	56	305	2	9	22%	7%	73	-0.6	238/293/326	88	307	6	12	23%	6%	76	-0.4	255/311/393	138	311	13	16	21%	7%	99	+1.0
✕Dameury Pena 2024 · A	18	49→59	36→30	53→55	51	226/285/298	73	256	2	16	13%	7%	67	-1.1	228/286/308	80	252	6	15	12%	7%	70	-0.9	241/299/311	70	264	6	18	11%	6%	73	-0.4
●Alcides Escobar 2006 · A	19	52→62	37→45	53→55	38	244/272/326	82	309	3	16	22%	3%	68	-1.0	262/289/332	70	325	3	20	20%	3%	75	-0.5	292/321/371	79	349	4	27	17%	3%	93	+0.8
✕Nacho Alvarez Jr. 2023 · A	20	51→54	39→40	55→50	58	237/332/330	93	293	6	14	20%	12%	93	+0.8	243/319/335	92	311	8	14	23%	8%	88	+0.5	244/321/332	88	312	8	14	22%	8%	87	+0.2
●Xavier Edwards 2019 · A	19	53→63	37→40	56→60	50	245/308/320	75	309	3	18	21%	8%	80	-0.2	257/303/319	62	306	1	19	15%	6%	77	-0.3	308/366/390	82	353	4	36	13%	8%	116	+2.2
●L.J. Hoes 2009 · A	19	50→60	37→40	56→50	53	235/305/308	72	289	4	11	19%	9%	76	-0.4	247/295/316	69	318	4	12	22%	6%	74	-0.6	288/348/379	91	345	5	15	17%	8%	105	+1.7
✕Josh Morgan 2015 · A	19	52→57	35→45	45→40	51	240/324/298	58	290	2	6	17%	8%	82	+0.0	253/313/325	72	305	5	5	17%	6%	83	+0.1	256/310/332	76	305	6	4	17%	6%	81	-0.1
✕Luisangel Acuña 2021 · A	19	46→56	37→45	51→60	54	217/290/290	73	257	3	13	16%	9%	67	-1.1	237/295/343	106	326	11	30	28%	7%	81	-0.1	250/307/357	107	337	11	39	27%	7%	86	+0.2
✕Cristofer Torin 2024 · A	19	46→55	38→40	54→50	54	219/299/292	73	262	5	19	18%	9%	72	-0.7	235/310/323	88	290	7	11	20%	9%	82	+0.0	243/315/341	98	290	8	10	18%	9%	86	+0.3
✕Tim Lopes 2013 · A	19	48→58	37→45	55	47	222/273/314	92	274	2	8	19%	6%	65	-1.2	233/277/307	74	298	3	13	21%	5%	65	-1.2	267/317/348	81	330	3	20	19%	6%	87	+0.3
✕Osleivis Basabe 2022 · A	21	52→62	38→45	56→50	45	246/290/332	86	302	5	15	20%	6%	76	-0.4	264/309/368	104	320	5	15	18%	5%	91	+0.7	268/314/373	105	323	5	15	18%	5%	91	+0.5
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	45→55	40→45	49→50	48	215/278/314	99	274	7	9	23%	8%	68	-1.0	227/295/327	100	280	6	12	20%	8%	78	-0.3	265/326/372	107	319	9	16	19%	7%	96	+0.8
✕Christian Arroyo 2014 · A	19	49→58	40→50	49→45	44	233/282/342	109	300	5	6	23%	6%	76	-0.4	240/274/341	101	305	7	4	23%	4%	72	-0.7	254/305/408	153	304	17	7	22%	5%	100	+0.5
✕Diego Velasquez 2024 · A	20	49→59	40	50	46	234/299/328	94	301	7	12	24%	7%	80	-0.2	253/321/334	81	323	4	15	21%	8%	88	+0.5	262/334/335	73	332	3	18	20%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Alejo Lopez 2016 · A	20	51→61	38→40	46→55	51	239/308/319	80	277	4	9	15%	7%	80	-0.1	229/282/302	73	267	4	10	15%	6%	66	-1.1	269/335/357	88	309	5	12	14%	8%	96	+0.8
✕Orlando Arcia 2015 · A	20	53→59	38→50	52→55	46	251/295/341	89	294	5	18	16%	6%	80	-0.2	254/292/370	116	306	8	18	19%	5%	85	+0.2	243/304/399	156	273	20	3	19%	7%	98	+0.8

Jose Rivas

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps